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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1338

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
whaski
Profile Joined December 2012
Finland576 Posts
February 26 2022 20:15 GMT
#26741
On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.


I wonder, if we see hybridstrike like the one at Poland in 2021 somewhere in Europe. Also our analysist Ryhor Nizhnikau thinks Belarus might be next target for Putin to "reform" (analysis is only available in finnish, tho google translation is quite good)
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008644970.html
it's not just a music it's something else
Dav1oN
Profile Joined January 2012
Ukraine3164 Posts
February 26 2022 20:31 GMT
#26742
On February 27 2022 05:15 whaski wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.


I wonder, if we see hybridstrike like the one at Poland in 2021 somewhere in Europe. Also our analysist Ryhor Nizhnikau thinks Belarus might be next target for Putin to "reform" (analysis is only available in finnish, tho google translation is quite good)
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008644970.html


Make no mistake, Belarus does not exist since last year when the people of Belarus tried to drop the mustachioed cockroach (that's how the call him for a while) from his throne during peaceful revolt, as we remember kremlin got involved, all opposition leaders either jailed or ran away, state media are controlled by kremlin as well. But as soon as kremlin falls - the people of Belarus will also be free, the people of Belarus are wonderful people
In memory of Geoff "iNcontroL" Robinson 11.09.1985 - 21.07.2019 A tribute to incredible man, embodiment of joy, esports titan, starcraft community pillar all in one. You will always be remembered!
Fildun
Profile Joined December 2012
Netherlands4122 Posts
February 26 2022 20:32 GMT
#26743
On February 27 2022 03:34 KwarK wrote:
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).

Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.

NATO enforcing a no-fly zone would massively escalate the situation, your entire second paragraph seems very far away from reality. So far Putin has not been bluffing and he's explicitly said he would fire nukes over direct NATO interference.
Even risking a 1% chance of nuclear war is just completely not worth it over a freaking no-fly zone when the current process of giving very good US intel to the Ukrainian command has proven to be quite effective already.
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7883 Posts
February 26 2022 20:39 GMT
#26744
On February 27 2022 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.


Hence why Russia sent units with mobile crematoriums.


Lovely.

Because who wants to get those bodies home to the families when you can just vaporize them in a truck.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
February 26 2022 20:43 GMT
#26745
I'm still hoping that the "peace talks" thing goes somewhere, and preferably sooner rather than later. Disappointingly, it didn't look like any breakthrough happened yesterday, though.

Latest effort being discussed is a Turkey & Azerbaijan mediation. They talked to both sides, which is good.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
whaski
Profile Joined December 2012
Finland576 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 20:59:00
February 26 2022 20:56 GMT
#26746
The madman is actually trying to expand war. This seems extremely worrying if they believe in this burble
https://mobile.twitter.com/PentagonPresSec/status/1497661172354486273?cxt=HHwWgsCswde54cgpAAAA
it's not just a music it's something else
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 26 2022 21:15 GMT
#26747
Kyiv about to come under massive artillery and bombing attack.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
February 26 2022 21:43 GMT
#26748
Kyiv bombing raid just started. Looks like Russia is throwing everything they have to take the city

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Oukka
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
Finland1683 Posts
February 26 2022 21:51 GMT
#26749
Signs of heavy RU troop concentration toward Kyiv. Commentators describing it as desperate, 'hail mary', or all-in.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1497674148977553411?t=44jJd0LnwxF7MSUxScfpqQ&s=19

Some reports of some of these troops surrendering on the way. Not even Ukrainian military sources confirming those claims yet, so better to take those claims as 'plausible' at most imo.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497677823087153158?t=h0uvjekcDTyHTAxGxqQf1g&s=19

Sounds like it'll be a nasty night in the city regardless. The intensifying artillery/rocket fire could be preparations for that.
I play children's card games and watch a lot of dota, CS and HS
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 26 2022 21:58 GMT
#26750
Which is a weird strategy if true, level a city in order to occupy it? That is just giving Ukrainians better defenses and so on. One would think Russians especially would know better.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Elroi
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden5595 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 22:05:18
February 26 2022 22:03 GMT
#26751
On February 27 2022 03:33 Dav1oN wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 03:05 Starlightsun wrote:
On February 26 2022 23:37 Dav1oN wrote:
Hey guys, it was one more scary night in Kharkiv (although - nothing near what happened in Kyiv), we've managed to sleep a bit better, somewhere early morning I woke up due to artillery shots, luckily it was our defense, if someone interested in what it was, here is a few videos before and after

before + Show Spoiler +

after + Show Spoiler +


Regional city defense is doing rather well, at the moment our biggest concern is saboteur groups. We've gathered with neighbours from two mid-dense civil buildings nearby in our area for protection purposes. Feels like with every minute we're more united


Our thoughts are with you... sounds like the attacks are really starting to intensify. Please take care.


Yea, that is correct, the northern part of Kharkiv (Saltovka civil district, one of the biggest in europe) was shelled for about 40 minutes straight. Neighbours also told me they heard a couple of gunfire shots in our area locally just now, while we are having a strict curfew, could be a saboteur or just someone out of his mind.

Thank you for the support! Hard to imagine, 4 days ago we had completely normal life, and now it's like a very scary movie, but having your support from all over the worlds makes it easier and helps to believe in the future

I dont know how involved you are if at all with the direct fighting, but this might be something to think about or just spread the word: turning off geolocalization on the phone/iPad.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/t26akc/turn_off_gps_on_your_phones_tablets_and_cars/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
"To all eSports fans, I want to be remembered as a progamer who can make something out of nothing, and someone who always does his best. I think that is the right way of living, and I'm always doing my best to follow that." - Jaedong. /watch?v=jfghAzJqAp0
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2616 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 22:08:04
February 26 2022 22:07 GMT
#26752
On February 27 2022 03:34 KwarK wrote:
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).

Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.

No fly zone means nuclear war, no question. Do you want nuclear armageddon between the US and Russia? Idiot.
Oukka
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
Finland1683 Posts
February 26 2022 22:14 GMT
#26753
On February 27 2022 06:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Which is a weird strategy if true, level a city in order to occupy it? That is just giving Ukrainians better defenses and so on. One would think Russians especially would know better.


Nothing weird in a preparing an attack via indirect fire. Been done forever. Attacking into any prepared defenses is very costly, so any disarray and weakening of those positions is seen as a good thing to do from the attacker's POV. If anything folks following the war have been confused at the lack of that type of action from what I've seen. The biggest reason offered has been that Putler & co honestly expected to be treated as liberators and didn't allocate enough time and support for this type of action. The thermobaric launchers seen moving towards Ukraine today might hint towards Russian command starting to react and adjust.

The first chechnyan war afaik was similar, first Russians tried to go in "easy", but when that didn't work they did indeed level the city and walk in, and it was much easier that way. Just much more costly, especially to the locals.
I play children's card games and watch a lot of dota, CS and HS
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9114 Posts
February 26 2022 22:22 GMT
#26754
Agreement reached on SWIFT, no details about targeting yet

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_1423
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 22:30:13
February 26 2022 22:26 GMT
#26755
On February 27 2022 07:14 Oukka wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 06:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Which is a weird strategy if true, level a city in order to occupy it? That is just giving Ukrainians better defenses and so on. One would think Russians especially would know better.


Nothing weird in a preparing an attack via indirect fire. Been done forever. Attacking into any prepared defenses is very costly, so any disarray and weakening of those positions is seen as a good thing to do from the attacker's POV. If anything folks following the war have been confused at the lack of that type of action from what I've seen. The biggest reason offered has been that Putler & co honestly expected to be treated as liberators and didn't allocate enough time and support for this type of action. The thermobaric launchers seen moving towards Ukraine today might hint towards Russian command starting to react and adjust.

The first chechnyan war afaik was similar, first Russians tried to go in "easy", but when that didn't work they did indeed level the city and walk in, and it was much easier that way. Just much more costly, especially to the locals.


The first Battle for Grozny took over 3 months of fighting just to secure the city, the second 4 years later took over a month and was the bloodiest battle of that war.

On February 27 2022 07:22 Dan HH wrote:
Agreement reached on SWIFT, no details about targeting yet

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_1423


The key word being SOME Russian Banks.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17971 Posts
February 26 2022 22:35 GMT
#26756
On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.

Makes sense, because they literally *are* fighting for their lives.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17971 Posts
February 26 2022 22:39 GMT
#26757
On February 27 2022 05:07 Sbrubbles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 02:44 RvB wrote:
On February 27 2022 01:08 Sbrubbles wrote:
On February 27 2022 00:29 Sermokala wrote:
On February 26 2022 23:40 Acrofales wrote:
On February 26 2022 23:34 PhoenixVoid wrote:
News seems to suggest that the resistance to disconnecting Russia from SWIFT has melted away. There were holdouts like Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus, but they've all decided to go with it. There's also reporting that the U.S. is considering sanctioning the Russian central bank in conjunction with allies, which holds most of Russia's reserves they've been holding to prepare for being turned into an international pariah. It would also cause the ruble to plummet.


How does sanctioning the Russian central bank work? Do they have a lot of business in dollars?

The SWIFT business makes all transactions incredibly more expensive as they are not secured anymore. Sanctions carry legal weight if a company or an individual does business with said bank.

China even made restrictions on Russian banks to get ahead of any scams that would result from swift going through or business they have in the us being disrupted by us sanctions.


Yeah, from what I understand, a SWIFT ban would make it incredibly difficult for any export/import business to operate. Even if workaround systems make it possible to send and receive foreign funds, would these businesses even be able to find enough credit until they're set up, given existing sanctions? I don't know for certain, but it sounds unworkable.

The Russian government can presumably prop up export industries for a time, either directly or with central bank credit. These companies will try to redirect their business, but how much product can, in practical terms, be competitively sold to China instead of Europe I also have no idea.

That doesn't answer Acrofales question. He wants to know how sanctions against a central bank work not disconnecting the financial system from Swift. I am curious as well but have no idea.


The only aspect of a central bank that depends on foreign countries is regulating and intervening the market for foreign currency. For example, the Russian central bank selling US currency to Russian banks to prop up the value of the ruble so that there isn't a crisis in the international and financial sectors of the economy.

If there is no market for foreign currency in the first place, because it's broken down by the lack of SWIFT or by sanctions, then I don't see any mechanisms though which foreign sanctions can affect a central bank.

That was most of my thinking too, and why I was confused.
Dav1oN
Profile Joined January 2012
Ukraine3164 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 23:03:02
February 26 2022 22:50 GMT
#26758
Kharkiv is shelled once again, grad and artillery, this is probably the worst shelling we had in 3 days as I hear the sounds from the north and east (north is significantly louder). It lasts for 15 minutes already. Not sure how far away from the city tho

Edit: shelling is over




In memory of Geoff "iNcontroL" Robinson 11.09.1985 - 21.07.2019 A tribute to incredible man, embodiment of joy, esports titan, starcraft community pillar all in one. You will always be remembered!
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11492 Posts
February 26 2022 23:04 GMT
#26759
On February 27 2022 07:50 Dav1oN wrote:
Kharkiv is shelled once again, grad and artillery, this is probably the worst shelling we had in 3 days as I hear the sounds from the north and east (north is significantly louder). It lasts for 15 minutes already. Not sure how far away from the city tho






I must say that your posts are horribly scary. I, as a person who has lived a secure life so far, can not even imagine what that would feel like. And you were in the same position just a week ago. It seems unreal even to me from a distance.

I wish for you to be save.
HolydaKing
Profile Joined February 2010
21254 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 23:14:30
February 26 2022 23:13 GMT
#26760
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497709487104397318?cxt=HHwWjMC4ufy198gpAAAA
(more bombings near Kyiv)

Hope Kyiv does not fall and the president and everyone stays safe... Putin is really isolated right now and makes Russia look terrible. Their economy is about to be in shambles... I fear what they will do in the next days tbh if Putin is not getting stopped from Russians.
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