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On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.
I wonder, if we see hybridstrike like the one at Poland in 2021 somewhere in Europe. Also our analysist Ryhor Nizhnikau thinks Belarus might be next target for Putin to "reform" (analysis is only available in finnish, tho google translation is quite good)
https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008644970.html
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On February 27 2022 05:15 whaski wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life. I wonder, if we see hybridstrike like the one at Poland in 2021 somewhere in Europe. Also our analysist Ryhor Nizhnikau thinks Belarus might be next target for Putin to "reform" (analysis is only available in finnish, tho google translation is quite good) https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008644970.html
Make no mistake, Belarus does not exist since last year when the people of Belarus tried to drop the mustachioed cockroach (that's how the call him for a while) from his throne during peaceful revolt, as we remember kremlin got involved, all opposition leaders either jailed or ran away, state media are controlled by kremlin as well. But as soon as kremlin falls - the people of Belarus will also be free, the people of Belarus are wonderful people
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On February 27 2022 03:34 KwarK wrote:
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).
Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.
NATO enforcing a no-fly zone would massively escalate the situation, your entire second paragraph seems very far away from reality. So far Putin has not been bluffing and he's explicitly said he would fire nukes over direct NATO interference.
Even risking a 1% chance of nuclear war is just completely not worth it over a freaking no-fly zone when the current process of giving very good US intel to the Ukrainian command has proven to be quite effective already.
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On February 27 2022 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life. Hence why Russia sent units with mobile crematoriums.
Lovely.
Because who wants to get those bodies home to the families when you can just vaporize them in a truck.
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I'm still hoping that the "peace talks" thing goes somewhere, and preferably sooner rather than later. Disappointingly, it didn't look like any breakthrough happened yesterday, though.
Latest effort being discussed is a Turkey & Azerbaijan mediation. They talked to both sides, which is good.
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Kyiv about to come under massive artillery and bombing attack.
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Which is a weird strategy if true, level a city in order to occupy it? That is just giving Ukrainians better defenses and so on. One would think Russians especially would know better.
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On February 27 2022 03:33 Dav1oN wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 03:05 Starlightsun wrote:On February 26 2022 23:37 Dav1oN wrote:Hey guys, it was one more scary night in Kharkiv (although - nothing near what happened in Kyiv), we've managed to sleep a bit better, somewhere early morning I woke up due to artillery shots, luckily it was our defense, if someone interested in what it was, here is a few videos before and after before + Show Spoiler +after + Show Spoiler +Regional city defense is doing rather well, at the moment our biggest concern is saboteur groups. We've gathered with neighbours from two mid-dense civil buildings nearby in our area for protection purposes. Feels like with every minute we're more united Our thoughts are with you... sounds like the attacks are really starting to intensify. Please take care. Yea, that is correct, the northern part of Kharkiv (Saltovka civil district, one of the biggest in europe) was shelled for about 40 minutes straight. Neighbours also told me they heard a couple of gunfire shots in our area locally just now, while we are having a strict curfew, could be a saboteur or just someone out of his mind. Thank you for the support! Hard to imagine, 4 days ago we had completely normal life, and now it's like a very scary movie, but having your support from all over the worlds makes it easier and helps to believe in the future
I dont know how involved you are if at all with the direct fighting, but this might be something to think about or just spread the word: turning off geolocalization on the phone/iPad.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/t26akc/turn_off_gps_on_your_phones_tablets_and_cars/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
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On February 27 2022 03:34 KwarK wrote:
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).
Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.
No fly zone means nuclear war, no question. Do you want nuclear armageddon between the US and Russia? Idiot.
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On February 27 2022 06:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Which is a weird strategy if true, level a city in order to occupy it? That is just giving Ukrainians better defenses and so on. One would think Russians especially would know better.
Nothing weird in a preparing an attack via indirect fire. Been done forever. Attacking into any prepared defenses is very costly, so any disarray and weakening of those positions is seen as a good thing to do from the attacker's POV. If anything folks following the war have been confused at the lack of that type of action from what I've seen. The biggest reason offered has been that Putler & co honestly expected to be treated as liberators and didn't allocate enough time and support for this type of action. The thermobaric launchers seen moving towards Ukraine today might hint towards Russian command starting to react and adjust.
The first chechnyan war afaik was similar, first Russians tried to go in "easy", but when that didn't work they did indeed level the city and walk in, and it was much easier that way. Just much more costly, especially to the locals.
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On February 27 2022 07:14 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 06:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Which is a weird strategy if true, level a city in order to occupy it? That is just giving Ukrainians better defenses and so on. One would think Russians especially would know better. Nothing weird in a preparing an attack via indirect fire. Been done forever. Attacking into any prepared defenses is very costly, so any disarray and weakening of those positions is seen as a good thing to do from the attacker's POV. If anything folks following the war have been confused at the lack of that type of action from what I've seen. The biggest reason offered has been that Putler & co honestly expected to be treated as liberators and didn't allocate enough time and support for this type of action. The thermobaric launchers seen moving towards Ukraine today might hint towards Russian command starting to react and adjust. The first chechnyan war afaik was similar, first Russians tried to go in "easy", but when that didn't work they did indeed level the city and walk in, and it was much easier that way. Just much more costly, especially to the locals.
The first Battle for Grozny took over 3 months of fighting just to secure the city, the second 4 years later took over a month and was the bloodiest battle of that war.
The key word being SOME Russian Banks.
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On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:
Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.
Makes sense, because they literally *are* fighting for their lives.
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On February 27 2022 05:07 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 02:44 RvB wrote:On February 27 2022 01:08 Sbrubbles wrote:On February 27 2022 00:29 Sermokala wrote:On February 26 2022 23:40 Acrofales wrote:On February 26 2022 23:34 PhoenixVoid wrote:
News seems to suggest that the resistance to disconnecting Russia from SWIFT has melted away. There were holdouts like Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus, but they've all decided to go with it. There's also reporting that the U.S. is considering sanctioning the Russian central bank in conjunction with allies, which holds most of Russia's reserves they've been holding to prepare for being turned into an international pariah. It would also cause the ruble to plummet.
How does sanctioning the Russian central bank work? Do they have a lot of business in dollars? The SWIFT business makes all transactions incredibly more expensive as they are not secured anymore. Sanctions carry legal weight if a company or an individual does business with said bank. China even made restrictions on Russian banks to get ahead of any scams that would result from swift going through or business they have in the us being disrupted by us sanctions. Yeah, from what I understand, a SWIFT ban would make it incredibly difficult for any export/import business to operate. Even if workaround systems make it possible to send and receive foreign funds, would these businesses even be able to find enough credit until they're set up, given existing sanctions? I don't know for certain, but it sounds unworkable. The Russian government can presumably prop up export industries for a time, either directly or with central bank credit. These companies will try to redirect their business, but how much product can, in practical terms, be competitively sold to China instead of Europe I also have no idea. That doesn't answer Acrofales question. He wants to know how sanctions against a central bank work not disconnecting the financial system from Swift. I am curious as well but have no idea. The only aspect of a central bank that depends on foreign countries is regulating and intervening the market for foreign currency. For example, the Russian central bank selling US currency to Russian banks to prop up the value of the ruble so that there isn't a crisis in the international and financial sectors of the economy. If there is no market for foreign currency in the first place, because it's broken down by the lack of SWIFT or by sanctions, then I don't see any mechanisms though which foreign sanctions can affect a central bank.
That was most of my thinking too, and why I was confused.
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Kharkiv is shelled once again, grad and artillery, this is probably the worst shelling we had in 3 days as I hear the sounds from the north and east (north is significantly louder). It lasts for 15 minutes already. Not sure how far away from the city tho
Edit: shelling is over
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On February 27 2022 07:50 Dav1oN wrote:
Kharkiv is shelled once again, grad and artillery, this is probably the worst shelling we had in 3 days as I hear the sounds from the north and east (north is significantly louder). It lasts for 15 minutes already. Not sure how far away from the city tho
I must say that your posts are horribly scary. I, as a person who has lived a secure life so far, can not even imagine what that would feel like. And you were in the same position just a week ago. It seems unreal even to me from a distance.
I wish for you to be save.
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EPT
