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On February 27 2022 03:18 Dan HH wrote:
Germany just committed to directly supplying weapons to Ukraine. I hope the US follows suit. The US has been supplying weapons for a while now. Germany was the only real hold out.
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Fucking finally. And I highly appreciate that it is Scholz personally publishing this, instead of attempting it in some covert way to not hurt Little Vladis feelings.
Though with regards to the SWIFT ban, the German government so far is still talking about some "selective/modified SWIFT ban" instead of the full thing. But well, lets see how long this last bit of moderation will last. This swing in public opinion I've seen in the last few days here in Germany is absolutely unprecedented. And politics will catch up with that.
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On February 27 2022 03:05 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2022 23:37 Dav1oN wrote:Hey guys, it was one more scary night in Kharkiv (although - nothing near what happened in Kyiv), we've managed to sleep a bit better, somewhere early morning I woke up due to artillery shots, luckily it was our defense, if someone interested in what it was, here is a few videos before and after before + Show Spoiler +after + Show Spoiler +Regional city defense is doing rather well, at the moment our biggest concern is saboteur groups. We've gathered with neighbours from two mid-dense civil buildings nearby in our area for protection purposes. Feels like with every minute we're more united Our thoughts are with you... sounds like the attacks are really starting to intensify. Please take care.
Yea, that is correct, the northern part of Kharkiv (Saltovka civil district, one of the biggest in europe) was shelled for about 40 minutes straight. Neighbours also told me they heard a couple of gunfire shots in our area locally just now, while we are having a strict curfew, could be a saboteur or just someone out of his mind.
Thank you for the support! Hard to imagine, 4 days ago we had completely normal life, and now it's like a very scary movie, but having your support from all over the worlds makes it easier and helps to believe in the future
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United States42008 Posts
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).
Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.
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On February 27 2022 03:30 RvB wrote:The US has been supplying weapons for a while now. Germany was the only real hold out. Have they done that since the invasion began? Last I saw they were debating whether that would make them co-combatants. They did send funds though.
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the russians didn't want to invade(aka Iraq); they wanted to occupy(not totally peacefully obv.) then pressure ,with help from inside loyalists, Ukraine leader(s) to surrender.
imo, the more military help will be sent to Ukraine, the more full retard the Kremlin will go.
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On February 27 2022 03:16 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 03:14 Oukka wrote: Russia isn't declaring war on anyone else while the troops are tied in Ukraine. If the estimates of troops deployed around Ukraine from past few weeks are accurate at all, it's like 75% of their active forces are tied the current war already. They'd need to mobilise reserves and crucially also equip them somehow. No chance.
In a related note, has Russian government or media not been crying against the western weapon and supply aid to Ukraine at all or have I managed to filter out all of it? I can't believe that Russia has like 750k troops around Ukraine.
Fair, I think me saying active forces is wrong there. I'll say 75% of combat ready forces and admit that it is an entirely unsubstantiated claim. The entire active organisation is somewhere in the order of 1M men, but that includes everything from freshest conscripts to troops that are likely to only exist on paper.
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My bad, I missed the news in the last link.
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those weapons are mostly for guerilla warfare which to me means civilian deaths increases. also, the weapons are not free, are not gifts, or things of sorts.
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Wow, never thought this would happen. Putin really seems to have overextended.
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On February 27 2022 03:40 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 03:16 Artisreal wrote:On February 27 2022 03:14 Oukka wrote: Russia isn't declaring war on anyone else while the troops are tied in Ukraine. If the estimates of troops deployed around Ukraine from past few weeks are accurate at all, it's like 75% of their active forces are tied the current war already. They'd need to mobilise reserves and crucially also equip them somehow. No chance.
In a related note, has Russian government or media not been crying against the western weapon and supply aid to Ukraine at all or have I managed to filter out all of it? I can't believe that Russia has like 750k troops around Ukraine. Fair, I think me saying active forces is wrong there. I'll say 75% of combat ready forces and admit that it is an entirely unsubstantiated claim. The entire active organisation is somewhere in the order of 1M men, but that includes everything from freshest conscripts to troops that are likely to only exist on paper. I have read that 75% number a couple of times - and I believe that includes outside of this thread. With the reported 150k of personell surrounding Ukraine I was suprised of how low that number was in context with the 75%. So I guess we don't really know but can assume, that a majority of Russian actve troops is engaged aound Ukraine. Which in context of WWII is laughably low. But also my main mistake to somehow unwittingly compare these numbers.
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On February 27 2022 04:16 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 03:40 Oukka wrote:On February 27 2022 03:16 Artisreal wrote:On February 27 2022 03:14 Oukka wrote: Russia isn't declaring war on anyone else while the troops are tied in Ukraine. If the estimates of troops deployed around Ukraine from past few weeks are accurate at all, it's like 75% of their active forces are tied the current war already. They'd need to mobilise reserves and crucially also equip them somehow. No chance.
In a related note, has Russian government or media not been crying against the western weapon and supply aid to Ukraine at all or have I managed to filter out all of it? I can't believe that Russia has like 750k troops around Ukraine. Fair, I think me saying active forces is wrong there. I'll say 75% of combat ready forces and admit that it is an entirely unsubstantiated claim. The entire active organisation is somewhere in the order of 1M men, but that includes everything from freshest conscripts to troops that are likely to only exist on paper. I have read that 75% number a couple of times - and I believe that includes outside of this thread. With the reported 150k of personell surrounding Ukraine I was suprised of how low that number was in context with the 75%. So I guess we don't really know but can assume, that a majority of Russian actve troops is engaged aound Ukraine. Which in context of WWII is laughably low. But also my main mistake to somehow unwittingly compare these numbers.
Yeah, I think the first time I heard of that estimate was Thursday morning, was talking about the beginning of the invasion with a colleague then. I've seen it somewhere else since, but no idea what the actual origin of that claim is.
Aye, WWII won't be a reasonable comparison, that was all reserves and then some mobilized. My understanding is that even currently Russia has another 2M or so in reserves, but those haven't been mobilized (and likely won't be because that would be kinda hard to hide at home). And in a WWII type of situation the reserve would be even larger because it is apparently not that difficult to avoid the mandatory conscription if you have either enough cash or some semi-reasonable excuse, including a broad range of further education.
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Reports coming in that General Magomed Tushayev has been killed.
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God almighty, that was fast huh
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I'm also getting this info, they are also reporting that the whole unit was crashed
Also - see partially a video by Kadyrov (head of Chechen republic) in instagram stating "we don't wanna fight ukrainians", but it could be ripped our of the context.
In addition, got a reports about huge russian supply column that was destroyed (Chernihiv - Sumy direction), the column was initially reported by the ordinary citizens to ukrainian army
Oh I wish the West could support closing the sky over Ukraine
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Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.
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On February 27 2022 05:03 Nyxisto wrote: Finally we're getting our head out of our asses and are sending weapons. It's hard to tell what information is accurate but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that Russian casualties are already high. I'm not entirely sure what Russia expected but I wonder what's going to happen if they're getting thousands home in body bags every week. Ukraine seems to be fighting for its life.
Hence why Russia sent units with mobile crematoriums.
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On February 27 2022 02:44 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 01:08 Sbrubbles wrote:On February 27 2022 00:29 Sermokala wrote:On February 26 2022 23:40 Acrofales wrote:On February 26 2022 23:34 PhoenixVoid wrote: News seems to suggest that the resistance to disconnecting Russia from SWIFT has melted away. There were holdouts like Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus, but they've all decided to go with it. There's also reporting that the U.S. is considering sanctioning the Russian central bank in conjunction with allies, which holds most of Russia's reserves they've been holding to prepare for being turned into an international pariah. It would also cause the ruble to plummet.
How does sanctioning the Russian central bank work? Do they have a lot of business in dollars? The SWIFT business makes all transactions incredibly more expensive as they are not secured anymore. Sanctions carry legal weight if a company or an individual does business with said bank. China even made restrictions on Russian banks to get ahead of any scams that would result from swift going through or business they have in the us being disrupted by us sanctions. Yeah, from what I understand, a SWIFT ban would make it incredibly difficult for any export/import business to operate. Even if workaround systems make it possible to send and receive foreign funds, would these businesses even be able to find enough credit until they're set up, given existing sanctions? I don't know for certain, but it sounds unworkable. The Russian government can presumably prop up export industries for a time, either directly or with central bank credit. These companies will try to redirect their business, but how much product can, in practical terms, be competitively sold to China instead of Europe I also have no idea. That doesn't answer Acrofales question. He wants to know how sanctions against a central bank work not disconnecting the financial system from Swift. I am curious as well but have no idea.
The only aspect of a central bank that depends on foreign countries is regulating and intervening the market for foreign currency. For example, the Russian central bank selling US currency to Russian banks to prop up the value of the ruble so that there isn't a crisis in the international and financial sectors of the economy.
If there is no market for foreign currency in the first place, because it's broken down by the lack of SWIFT or by sanctions, then I don't see any mechanisms though which foreign sanctions can affect a central bank.
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On February 27 2022 04:58 Dav1oN wrote:I'm also getting this info, they are also reporting that the whole unit was crashed Also - see partially a video by Kadyrov (head of Chechen republic) in instagram stating "we don't wanna fight ukrainians", but it could be ripped our of the context. In addition, got a reports about huge russian supply column that was destroyed (Chernihiv - Sumy direction), the column was initially reported by the ordinary citizens to ukrainian army Oh I wish the West could support closing the sky over Ukraine Not sure how reliable the info on the Chechen unit is, haven't seen any source I trust report on this yet, but it could very well be true.
Supply columns seem to be getting hit quite a bit, the one getting destroyed near Chernihiv - Sumy also lines up with reports that vehicles and soldiers in that area are without supplies.
Most surprising news by far today for me would be that Ukrainian Su-25s are still capable of running sorties, Russia not having full air control is a major defeat for them.
However, southern flank is still in shambles so unless counterattacks happen there that's a real big issue.
Edit: With regards to the mobile crematoriums, this has been standard practice for Russian forces for a while so I wouldn't read that as confirming high casualties. Casualties are probably still high though, but that's mainly based on other info.
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