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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1339

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 23:23:05
February 26 2022 23:16 GMT
#26761
Can't find the timestamp where this quote; could be more than just this bit.



Edit: Kharkiv has held out, many buildings damaged.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Dav1oN
Profile Joined January 2012
Ukraine3164 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 23:27:33
February 26 2022 23:25 GMT
#26762
On February 27 2022 08:04 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 07:50 Dav1oN wrote:
Kharkiv is shelled once again, grad and artillery, this is probably the worst shelling we had in 3 days as I hear the sounds from the north and east (north is significantly louder). It lasts for 15 minutes already. Not sure how far away from the city tho





I must say that your posts are horribly scary. I, as a person who has lived a secure life so far, can not even imagine what that would feel like. And you were in the same position just a week ago. It seems unreal even to me from a distance.

I wish for you to be save.


During the first night/day we've been shocked by the events, was surral and full of stress. I also lived a normal life, feels like ages ago. Right now I'm not sure we have enough cortisol secretion to be afraid. My friend is a psychietrists who works with soldiers with PTSD/other mental deseases, she argued that our body adapts to low frequency sounds which results less stress. Maybe all at once.

3 days ago I could not even imagine I'll be able to distinguish the sounds of heavy artillery/aircrafts, but here we are. Life is so unpredictable, but we'll get through these mess hopefully

Thank you for supporting! Every word matters a lot!
In memory of Geoff "iNcontroL" Robinson 11.09.1985 - 21.07.2019 A tribute to incredible man, embodiment of joy, esports titan, starcraft community pillar all in one. You will always be remembered!
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
February 26 2022 23:26 GMT
#26763
That freeze on the central bank assets is a major sanction. Putin was stocking up on 600B foreign reserves largely in international accounts to stabilize the ruble and to shield the country from sanctions. If that's not available the Russian economy has some big problems.
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
February 26 2022 23:28 GMT
#26764
No way. Russia's economy is going to collapse in a matter of days now

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
HolydaKing
Profile Joined February 2010
21254 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 23:35:07
February 26 2022 23:32 GMT
#26765
On February 27 2022 08:28 plasmidghost wrote:
No way. Russia's economy is going to collapse in a matter of days now

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1497707103347220482

Which is why I find it scary to think what the madman Putin will resort to if not stopped by Russians (politicians). I'm obviously in favor of everything that helps the Ukraine tho.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21650 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 23:44:27
February 26 2022 23:44 GMT
#26766
On February 27 2022 08:32 HolydaKing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 08:28 plasmidghost wrote:
No way. Russia's economy is going to collapse in a matter of days now

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1497707103347220482

Which is why I find it scary to think what the madman Putin will resort to if not stopped by Russians (politicians). I'm obviously in favor of everything that helps the Ukraine tho.
If he goes crazy over this he was going to go crazy anyway is my reasoning.

If it happens it happens, and there isn't a whole lot 'we' could have done to prevent it.
Giving in to Russia is not an option.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
HolydaKing
Profile Joined February 2010
21254 Posts
February 26 2022 23:46 GMT
#26767
On February 27 2022 08:44 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 08:32 HolydaKing wrote:
On February 27 2022 08:28 plasmidghost wrote:
No way. Russia's economy is going to collapse in a matter of days now

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1497707103347220482

Which is why I find it scary to think what the madman Putin will resort to if not stopped by Russians (politicians). I'm obviously in favor of everything that helps the Ukraine tho.
If he goes crazy over this he was going to go crazy anyway is my reasoning.

If it happens it happens, and there isn't a whole lot 'we' could have done to prevent it.
Giving in to Russia is not an option.

Right, that's the correct way to see it.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-26 23:50:46
February 26 2022 23:47 GMT
#26768
Won't happen. That is an automatic starter for, again, WW3. Never mind that there isn't an EU military force. yet. Let alone a command structure.



edit:


Cooler heads have got to fucking prevail here. Someone has got to convince Putin to order units to go back to their corners.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
HolydaKing
Profile Joined February 2010
21254 Posts
February 26 2022 23:53 GMT
#26769
On February 27 2022 08:47 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Won't happen. That is an automatic starter for, again, WW3. Never mind that there isn't an EU military force. yet. Let alone a command structure.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497596244105076736

edit: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1497701484003213317

Cooler heads have got to fucking prevail here. Someone has got to convince Putin to order units to go back to their corners.

Hopefully he couldn't convince everyone in his staff that Zelenskyy is a nazi and the other trash things he said.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17975 Posts
February 26 2022 23:56 GMT
#26770
On February 27 2022 08:47 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Won't happen. That is an automatic starter for, again, WW3. Never mind that there isn't an EU military force. yet. Let alone a command structure.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497596244105076736

edit: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1497701484003213317

Cooler heads have got to fucking prevail here. Someone has got to convince Putin to order units to go back to their corners.

Poland introducing this bill is purely symbolic.
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
February 27 2022 00:21 GMT
#26771
Looks like things keep getting worse for Kyiv. With that being said, if the Ukrainians can repel until then, things might finally turn around.
Part of me has to think if Putin will get deposed as losses get worse

Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21650 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 00:29:42
February 27 2022 00:29 GMT
#26772
Taking a city like Kyiv from a determined defender in less then a day?
That feels very very ambitious.

city fights are a nightmare.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria818 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 00:47:42
February 27 2022 00:30 GMT
#26773
On February 27 2022 08:32 HolydaKing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 08:28 plasmidghost wrote:
No way. Russia's economy is going to collapse in a matter of days now

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1497707103347220482

Which is why I find it scary to think what the madman Putin will resort to if not stopped by Russians (politicians). I'm obviously in favor of everything that helps the Ukraine tho.


Well, if that was to happen, my hope is Putin would follow fate of almost every dictator.. So I hope there is some sane Russian soldier who says "we can't let that happen"
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42566 Posts
February 27 2022 00:48 GMT
#26774
On February 27 2022 07:07 TheLordofAwesome wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 03:34 KwarK wrote:
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).

Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.

No fly zone means nuclear war, no question. Do you want nuclear armageddon between the US and Russia? Idiot.

You think Putin would prefer his death and the death of all Russians to fighting Ukraine on the ground/not fighting Ukraine? I think perhaps you might be the idiot. Nukes are a weapon of last resort when your back is against the wall. Not winning in Ukraine wouldn't put Russia's back against the wall.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
February 27 2022 00:51 GMT
#26775
On February 27 2022 09:48 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 07:07 TheLordofAwesome wrote:
On February 27 2022 03:34 KwarK wrote:
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).

Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.

No fly zone means nuclear war, no question. Do you want nuclear armageddon between the US and Russia? Idiot.

You think Putin would prefer his death and the death of all Russians to fighting Ukraine on the ground/not fighting Ukraine? I think perhaps you might be the idiot. Nukes are a weapon of last resort when your back is against the wall. Not winning in Ukraine wouldn't put Russia's back against the wall.


If you think Putin is an entirely rational actor after his absolutely bizarre Monty Python like TV appearances of the last week I think you're a little bit too optimistic.

{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 01:04:29
February 27 2022 01:04 GMT
#26776
On February 27 2022 09:30 SC-Shield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 08:32 HolydaKing wrote:
On February 27 2022 08:28 plasmidghost wrote:
No way. Russia's economy is going to collapse in a matter of days now

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1497707103347220482

Which is why I find it scary to think what the madman Putin will resort to if not stopped by Russians (politicians). I'm obviously in favor of everything that helps the Ukraine tho.


Well, if that was to happen, my hope is Putin would follow fate of almost every dictator.. So I hope there is some sane Russian soldier who says "we can't let that happen"


There's the scary part. Who the hell is advising him? Putin is a well known techaverse. He doesn't use phones etc. Especially after the NSA leaks etc. He has been isolated for two years, and is a germaphobe. It seems very few have access to him in any shape or form.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria818 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 01:11:30
February 27 2022 01:05 GMT
#26777
On February 27 2022 09:51 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2022 09:48 KwarK wrote:
On February 27 2022 07:07 TheLordofAwesome wrote:
On February 27 2022 03:34 KwarK wrote:
There's a ton more the West can do without WW3 imo, it's a question of brinkmanship. We need a new JFK who is able to walk that line. Russia will put their red lines out as aggressively as possible with "if you do X it is war". The West can put their red lines out equally far "we're doing X and if you try to stop us it is war". The reality is that Russia doesn't want to go to war just as much as the West doesn't want them to, nobody wins in that war but Russia would lose far harder than the West would. There are some areas where Russia aren't bluffing (if NATO bombed Moscow that would require a response) but there are some where Russia are 100% bluffing (they are not going to get into a nuclear exchange with a more powerful arsenal because banks won't process their payments).

Personally I'd like to see western European nations enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the basis that it's Ukrainian airspace, they have permission to be there, and that there shouldn't be any Russian jets there in the first place. That's no different than policing their own airspace. If a Russian fighter entered Polish airspace and the Poles shot it down nobody would expect that to escalate into a full nuclear exchange, there's no reason why Russia would commit suicide over their jets being shot down in another country's sovereign airspace. The bluff must be called at some point.

No fly zone means nuclear war, no question. Do you want nuclear armageddon between the US and Russia? Idiot.

You think Putin would prefer his death and the death of all Russians to fighting Ukraine on the ground/not fighting Ukraine? I think perhaps you might be the idiot. Nukes are a weapon of last resort when your back is against the wall. Not winning in Ukraine wouldn't put Russia's back against the wall.


If you think Putin is an entirely rational actor after his absolutely bizarre Monty Python like TV appearances of the last week I think you're a little bit too optimistic.



He is crazy, but I think he is rational enough still. Not completely crazy in other words. Are you sure you don't fall victim to the Madman theory? Good thing from being a dictator since 1999 is that we have past actions to draw conclusions from. If NATO attempts to attack Russians on their soil, we may see nukes but not if Putin loses to Ukrainian forces or if damages there are too high.
Erasme
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Bahamas15899 Posts
February 27 2022 01:14 GMT
#26778
On February 27 2022 09:29 Gorsameth wrote:
Taking a city like Kyiv from a determined defender in less then a day?
That feels very very ambitious.

city fights are a nightmare.

Doesn't he have the munitions to simply flatten it through continuous bombardement ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7lxwFEB6FI “‘Drain the swamp’? Stupid saying, means nothing, but you guys loved it so I kept saying it.”
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21971 Posts
February 27 2022 01:26 GMT
#26779
The only viable option was to stay out of it. Do you really think that China and maybe even India will participate in sanctions? They abstained in the security council for a reason and will likely establish their own payment system with Russia while the ‚west‘ is not invited and goes up in an inflationary fireball of its own making.

Why would you sell your resources to someone who declares the money they gave you invalid on a whim?
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-27 01:43:01
February 27 2022 01:32 GMT
#26780
On February 27 2022 10:26 Vivax wrote:
The only viable option was to stay out of it. Do you really think that China and maybe even India will participate in sanctions? They abstained in the security council for a reason and will likely establish their own payment system with Russia while the ‚west‘ is not invited and goes up in an inflationary fireball of its own making.

Why would you sell your resources to someone who declares the money they gave you invalid on a whim?


Yeah until said 3 countries realize they are the only ones in this new said system. China, and India especially rely on Trade with the West otherwise their economy is dead in the water. Hell India relies on the West for most of it's foreign policy muscle. So when push comes to shove they can bring in heavy hitters, such as France, or even the US, and UK. That and less than a year ago there was a major border skirmish that claimed lives on both sides. So doubt the public in India would approve of cozying up to China.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
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