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DucK-
Singapore11447 Posts
I don't understand how he can have any form of global standing anymore with his decision to invade. So how is he going to 'repair' relations? Like I get that he wants to install a Russian head in Ukraine. But I don't understand what good can if do for him since the rest of the world hates the country now. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4742 Posts
Also, I think Russians grossly underestimated Ukrainians will to resist, they most likely thought it will be like 2014 over again. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14076 Posts
On February 26 2022 16:12 DucK- wrote: I have not much general knowledge of the situation in Ukraine. My question is, what is the aftermath of Putin if they fail/succeed the invasion. I don't understand how he can have any form of global standing anymore with his decision to invade. So how is he going to 'repair' relations? Like I get that he wants to install a Russian head in Ukraine. But I don't understand what good can if do for him since the rest of the world hates the country now. He's a madman who's looking for one last moment of glory before death. A man in his 70s who's been the leader for decades already cannot continue to control a nation like Russia. All tyrants die and he knows that the end is near. I've read that he wants to create a north/south Korea situation but east west and with Kyiv in Russia. Bartering what he has conquered with China to keep the nation afloat until the west get divided and exhausted from their economic losses of the sanctions. | ||
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
On February 26 2022 06:49 Oukka wrote: Some fight because they've been told to fight, some because they don't know better and some because refusing to fight might have fairly ugly consequences. But in general the more Russia has to involve conscripts or reservists the easier it'll get for Ukraine. Also it'd be fun to think that Soviets lost the winter war in a humiliating fashion, but maybe more accurate is that their losses were humiliating and Finland was not occupied or joined to the USSR. Large parts of land were ceded to the USSR tho. EDIT: talks of possible negotiations being now reported by at least BBC and the Guardian. I saw Israel being flashed as one possible location/mediator, Russians obviously suggesting Minsk but that seems no different than Moscow at this point. I'm quoting my own post to continue this topic. Some clips going around of Russian soldiers showing, let's just say less than ideal fighting spirit. The ones that are going round are subject to likely hefty selection bias and all other appropriate warnings before anyone takes these as representative, plus that I'm relying on Finnish translations of the Russian spoken on the videos. Russian POW telling they were sent to an exercise and now they find themselves in a war against Ukrainians. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1497472321975640065?t=L6yKdja_i5_W6j55IbiCqw&s=19 A Russian soldier talking about surrendering with an old Ukrainian man. No idea of numbers, something I saw was twitter speculation of four companies, but better not take those without a hefty pinch of salt. https://twitter.com/kirillpartizan/status/1497317588673699841?t=wQqObY_t6GHT6a28npnx4A&s=19 Again, even beyond anything else it's somehow encouraging to see any amount of Russian soldiers willing to say that maybe they shouldn't be doing what they're doing. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7953 Posts
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Warfie
Norway2846 Posts
Based on what we see of real news and US intelligence, Kyiv seems slated to fall within days - with US even warning it could fall during last night (which it did not)? Granted it may have come at a higher cost than Russia had expected, but to me it seems that in terms of conventional military battles, this is close to over? A subsequent insurgency or guerilla warfare is another story. Just seems like a lot of wishful thinking to me. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7953 Posts
On February 26 2022 17:17 Warfie wrote: I don't understand the sentiment I see both here and on other forums that this is going unsustainably poorly for Russia or that they might be willing to discuss a ceasefire which is not just for show. Based on what we see of real news and US intelligence, Kyiv seems slated to fall within days - with US even warning it could fall during last night (which it did not)? Granted it may have come at a higher cost than Russia had expected, but to me it seems that in terms of conventional military battles, this is close to over? A subsequent insurgency or guerilla warfare is another story. Just seems like a lot of wishful thinking to me. I think the consensus is that this is going to be unbelievably costly to Russia and russians in terms of essentially everything for not much to be gained. I think Putin completely underestimated the reaction and the consequences of that invasion. Now on a military level, there never were any doubt of the outcome. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1061 Posts
This is troubling. Those guys are fanatics and more war crimes are predestined by that move, if it's true. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5741 Posts
On February 26 2022 15:42 Mafe wrote: Genuine question, since this isnt the first time I'm reading it: How do we know that it actually is going "worse" than Putin expected? Among other things, they are allegedly conscripting medical students (to treat people) because they're expecting much heavier casualties than they had planned for. | ||
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Salazarz
Korea (South)2591 Posts
On February 26 2022 16:28 Silvanel wrote: It’s not making any sense, that's why many people didn't believe it until it happened. His goal is probably to install a puppet government in Kyiv and force them to renounce claims to Crimea and maybe Donetsk/Luhansk. This goal might not make sense to us, but internal Russian narration and political dynamic is totally different. Perhaps he needs a war to stay in power? Russians love victorious wars, they always cause popularity to soar (this is what my Russian coworker have said). Also, I think Russians grossly underestimated Ukrainians will to resist, they most likely thought it will be like 2014 over again. There is no rational reason for it at all. The only domestic support Putin might get from a victory in Ukraine is from people who already support him; anyone who wasn't a staunch Putinist before this mess, is now strongly against him and that's not gonna change no matter the outcome at this point. The thing is, there is no real opposition leadership in the country, and there's no one to rally around as a potential replacement to Putin should he be ousted. The closest the country ever had to that, Navalny, is not so much a political leader but rather an anti-establishment activist; and his past ties with far right folks also make him a less than desirable alternative to Putin. Aside from Navalny... there's basically no one for the opposition to unite around, there's no real organization or any idea of what to do should Putin fall. Its size, diversity, and the diverse set of issues it's facing make managing Russia a very challenging task. Post-Soviet Russia was designed as a federated state with significant autonomy of regions, but Putin has worked hard to strip down those autonomies to a minimum and create a very top-down administration. With few exceptions (Chechnya comes to mind), each region would require a complete restructuring of local administration, on top of the huge upheaval that would be required in Kremlin as well. The scope of work required to rebuild the country if Putin gets ousted rather than passing on the rule to his approved heir is unimaginable. People are (rightly so) fearing another decade of lawless disorder akin to the 90s, so it's really a damned if you do, damned if you don't sorta situation for them. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6261 Posts
On February 26 2022 18:13 plasmidghost wrote: I think all that's left now is for Hungary to agree. Any chance they do? https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497496218359898116 Hungary can't really block it on its own. According to a central banker it's only a matter of days until they're cut off. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/cutting-russia-off-swift-matter-days-euro-zone-central-banker-2022-02-26/ | ||
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Warfie
Norway2846 Posts
On February 26 2022 17:30 Biff The Understudy wrote: I think the consensus is that this is going to be unbelievably costly to Russia and russians in terms of essentially everything for not much to be gained. I think Putin completely underestimated the reaction and the consequences of that invasion. Now on a military level, there never were any doubt of the outcome. We can agree it will be costly, but we can only speculate as to what Russia priced in when calculating their moves. Again I don't really understand why the consensus seems to be it will be way more costly than they estimated. As I understand it, the only surprising developments in terms of sanctions are the possible Swift ban, the real consequences of which seem to be debated, and China's UN stance, which does little if they keep throwing economic lifelines to Russia such as announcing the lifting of import restrictions on Russian wheat on the same day as the invasion began. Russia has been building a fortress economy which, while not ever lasting, is designed to withstand sanctions for a prolonged time. To proclaim this war to be way more costly than they thought seems to me to just be wishful thinking still? And does it matter much in the long term if the fall of Kyiv takes two weeks or 3 days? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22063 Posts
On February 26 2022 17:17 Warfie wrote: Partly comments from intelligence agencies, who have been pretty much on the money sofar, stating that Russia failed their strategic goals on day 1 ect. I don't understand the sentiment I see both here and on other forums that this is going unsustainably poorly for Russia or that they might be willing to discuss a ceasefire which is not just for show. Based on what we see of real news and US intelligence, Kyiv seems slated to fall within days - with US even warning it could fall during last night (which it did not)? Granted it may have come at a higher cost than Russia had expected, but to me it seems that in terms of conventional military battles, this is close to over? A subsequent insurgency or guerilla warfare is another story. Just seems like a lot of wishful thinking to me. Partly failed actions like the day 1 attempt to capture the airport near Kyiv. And probably in a large party because we are used to America invading a country. In which case its missile strikes to disable AA, followed be bombing every strategic target back into the stone age and the army walking in largely unopposed. Russia isn't doing that, maybe because they thought they could get a quick victory, maybe because they can't afford to throw that much expensive precision missiles at Ukraine. Whatever the reason is it has meant that the advance is running into a lot more resistance then we are used to seeing, because the Ukraine army is still in fighting shape. And finally a lot of people talking with their heart, not their head. We want Ukraine to stand firm, to win against impossible odds and keep their freedom. | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
Interesting thread on topic of Putin's possible calculations and why it's so far not been a success: https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1497378894529589250?t=GWVANnfq3CfgFEJO4gnptA&s=19 EDIT: and there definitely is a lot of hope that Ukrainians are bloodying Putin's nose so that anybody else doesn't have to experience a war. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
This may not change much in the west, but after this every conscript in the Russian army will know how much their live is valued by their glorious leader. And every family whos son won't return, while the state media proclaims 0 losses will know that they didn't die defending Russia(ns) but being pitted against their brothers and sisters by Putin. It completely destroys any chance of a future puppet regime looking in any way legitimate regardless of any spin the state media will put on it. If Russia would have rolled in and 2 days later there would have been some great PhotoOP showing some new peoples representative thanking Putin for freeing them this would have been a ( in Russia) believable narrative. This wont work when the Ukrainians are fighting tooth and nails against this occupation. | ||
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whaski
Finland577 Posts
On February 26 2022 19:21 Gorsameth wrote: Partly comments from intelligence agencies, who have been pretty much on the money sofar, stating that Russia failed their strategic goals on day 1 ect. Partly failed actions like the day 1 attempt to capture the airport near Kyiv. And probably in a large party because we are used to America invading a country. In which case its missile strikes to disable AA, followed be bombing every strategic target back into the stone age and the army walking in largely unopposed. Russia isn't doing that, maybe because they thought they could get a quick victory, maybe because they can't afford to throw that much expensive precision missiles at Ukraine. Whatever the reason is it has meant that the advance is running into a lot more resistance then we are used to seeing, because the Ukraine army is still in fighting shape. And finally a lot of people talking with their heart, not their head. We want Ukraine to stand firm, to win against impossible odds and keep their freedom. Agreed, this is behind paywall https://www.sipoonsanomat.fi/paikalliset/4492871 but in short if Putin wins quickly, Finland, Moldova etc. are in grave danger. At this point its clear, that nobody is going to help us with Russia threatning with nukes. And for sure, Ukraine deserves its praise for fighting against Putin for eight years. | ||
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zeo
Serbia6334 Posts
On February 26 2022 17:17 Warfie wrote: I don't understand the sentiment I see both here and on other forums that this is going unsustainably poorly for Russia or that they might be willing to discuss a ceasefire which is not just for show. Based on what we see of real news and US intelligence, Kyiv seems slated to fall within days - with US even warning it could fall during last night (which it did not)? Granted it may have come at a higher cost than Russia had expected, but to me it seems that in terms of conventional military battles, this is close to over? A subsequent insurgency or guerilla warfare is another story. Just seems like a lot of wishful thinking to me. It's a coping mechanism. And its standard internal propaganda during a war when state institutions, law and order start collapsing. It's been two days, Ukraine is a huge country, it takes time to move heavy armor and secure positions even without resistance. It took the US coalition 20 days to reach Bagdad and that was with shock and awe carpet bombing and leveling civilian and military obstacles. Though its to be expected, saying that Putins war is going poorly might make you feel better about yourself but you obviously know nothing about ground logistics, just how many people live in Ukraine and how far everything is from each other. It's obviously not a full scale total war invasion and only something like a third of the strike troops that were at the Russia/Belarus have been deployed. As for moral: Obviously the bulk of Russian forces now deployed were participating in standard military drills and just told one day 'ok, you do these drills in Ukraine in a few hours time'. Not like each of them was going to get detailed psychological counseling and plans weeks ahead. Only a sociopath would be cheerful a day after going to war. --------- Anyway, some resent developments. Vasilkov airfield taken last night by airborn paratroopers with heavy armor pushing through to link up, fighting ongoing for the settlement proper. After that its 30-40km to the Dniper river and the full scale strategic encirclement of the west bank of Kiev. Brovari on the east bank apparently under fire control, very mixed news going around about Chernigov and how far the advance has been. Can they close the gaps by tonight? Doubtful. But American intelligence predictions yesterday about the city being surrounded in 96hours have some merit... Helicopters fighting on video near the town of Brodi (western Ukraine close to Lvov). Can only widely speculate about what that means. | ||
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Fildun
Netherlands4123 Posts
On February 26 2022 17:17 Warfie wrote: I don't understand the sentiment I see both here and on other forums that this is going unsustainably poorly for Russia or that they might be willing to discuss a ceasefire which is not just for show. Based on what we see of real news and US intelligence, Kyiv seems slated to fall within days - with US even warning it could fall during last night (which it did not)? Granted it may have come at a higher cost than Russia had expected, but to me it seems that in terms of conventional military battles, this is close to over? A subsequent insurgency or guerilla warfare is another story. Just seems like a lot of wishful thinking to me. It's definitely going worse than planned for the Russians, but yeah 'unsustainably' is a very big reach at the moment. Ceasefire talk also seems unlikely for now, unless Russia is going to threaten to resort to Syrian/Chechen measures. However, so far it does indeed seem like it'll just extend the duration of active operations rather than stop them entirely. With regards to Kyiv I'd say that urban combat is the most difficult style of combat for modern professional armies, so they might hold out for a while. Again, it depends on how fast Russia will switch to a higher amount of acceptable civilian casualties. Southern front is going extremely well for Russia though, so as long as they can roll up everything east of the Dniepr with that they might just not bother with assaulting any of the major cities. I do think that that is only plan B though, plan A will still be full occupation and so far they're not as successful with that one as they'd have hoped. However, it's only day 3. I did see some reports that some companies in the north east were having supply issues, but given that that's the least important front and that it's very anecdotal it probably doesn't mean too much. On the other hand, Russian economy isn't that big and keeping this army in the field for an extended period of time (including the build up) is not all that cheap. | ||
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