EPTIf the Russians kill the Ukranian president they're going to turn him into a martyr for the resistance. It could get a lot worse before it ever gets better. The story about the Ukranian old lady might be propaganda but its some scary stuff.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1333
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
|
Sermokala
United States13908 Posts
If the Russians kill the Ukranian president they're going to turn him into a martyr for the resistance. It could get a lot worse before it ever gets better. The story about the Ukranian old lady might be propaganda but its some scary stuff. | ||
|
Biff The Understudy
France7886 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:08 zeo wrote: You seem stressed. Deep breaths. Anyway. Regarding the guns handed out in Kiev today. It didnt take long for the paranoia to kick in and from the looks of it there were at least three different shootouts happening in different parts of Kiev between armed militias believing that the other militias were Russian infiltrators. Armed robberies. Ita going to be very difficult and dangerous for their own army to move inside Kiev... @Acrofales. Indeed, just like the Ukraine we had our own province of Kosovo that had terrorist groups armed and funded by a foriegn super power. Just like Ukraine we started anti terrorist operations, though our one didnt last 8 years. The foriegn superpower and its media naratived their casus belle and we got freedom bombed for it. I guess the Russian version in liberation bombed. And ever since then whenever you piss all over the territorial integrity of a country you just say 'special case lol'. You mean when you guys commited a genocide in Kosovo and when the ethnic cleansing resulted in 9000 death and 800000 people having to flee their home? Yeah we remember. It has fuck all to do with Ukraine, obviously. | ||
|
SC-Shield
Bulgaria818 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:01 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Now Canada is being threatened... I mean, does Russia have any economy left to threaten at this point? I also thought about sanctions and typical Russian narrative, "sanctions don't work against us". Yeah, if you consider full package: - 70% of Russian banks, sanctioned - Aeroflot banned - Russia kicked out from Eurovision - Russia GP cancelled - Russia F1 cancelled - other economy sanctions - unpopular war at home, low morale / no good cause - sanctions keep coming from all around the world Can they afford to threaten anyone with sanctions? Military casualties and sanctions are a good recipe to lose popularity fast. Honestly, I think Putin's days in power are counted imho if he doesn't give up soon. Also, I think his implicit threat of nuclear war if there is external intervention is most likely bluff, too. He tries to sound tough, but all that's gonna happen is: actors 2:0 Russian dictators Actors - Reagan & Zelenskyy | ||
|
Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On February 26 2022 07:24 Belisarius wrote: It's not a distaster for Putin yet, I agree, but it's a lot better than I'd hoped. He's haemorrhaging support every day that his tanks are over the border and not in a parade. He's definitely miscalculated. He's still likely to win, for a given value of "win", but it will be costly and he surely can't go further without his home front blowing up. People are talking about this like it's Hitler v. Poland and he'll soon have everything that's not NATO'd down, but imo it's a messier iraq where the invaders barely even manage the initial push. It doesn't leave the invaders in a strong position at all. Yeah two days feels rather premature to think the Russians would back down now after having wagered everything. But yeah as you guys say there's a lot of external pressures as well besides just how the battles are going. I wonder how long realistically Russia could sustain the conflict. | ||
|
plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
| ||
|
WombaT
Northern Ireland25092 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:08 zeo wrote: You seem stressed. Deep breaths. Anyway. Regarding the guns handed out in Kiev today. It didnt take long for the paranoia to kick in and from the looks of it there were at least three different shootouts happening in different parts of Kiev between armed militias believing that the other militias were Russian infiltrators. Armed robberies. Ita going to be very difficult and dangerous for their own army to move inside Kiev... @Acrofales. Indeed, just like the Ukraine we had our own province of Kosovo that had terrorist groups armed and funded by a foriegn super power. Just like Ukraine we started anti terrorist operations, though our one didnt last 8 years. The foriegn superpower and its media naratived their casus belle and we got freedom bombed for it. I guess the Russian version in liberation bombed. And ever since then whenever you piss all over the territorial integrity of a country you just say 'special case lol'. I’ve kinda suspected from your location and the general bent of your posts that you’re carrying some irritation that NATO made your nation’s massacre of Bosnian Muslims at least slightly more inconvenient and your absurd equivocations stemmed from that. Thank for for confirming. | ||
|
Dav1oN
Ukraine3164 Posts
 | ||
|
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:41 plasmidghost wrote: The Russian oligarchs have to be furious with Putin, right? They've lost a ton of money and now are going to be screwed in many ways with the sanctions Doubt it. They have plenty of money and can be bought off with alternative money to what they lost. On February 26 2022 09:37 Starlightsun wrote: Yeah two days feels rather premature to think the Russians would back down now after having wagered everything. But yeah as you guys say there's a lot of external pressures as well besides just how the battles are going. I wonder how long realistically Russia could sustain the conflict. I strongly suspect that both sides are looking for the most face-saving way to exit the current situation. Both Ukraine and Russia have mentioned talks leading to ceasefire; at this point it's just jockeying for terms. | ||
|
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:45 WombaT wrote: I’ve kinda suspected from your location and the general bent of your posts that you’re carrying some irritation that NATO made your nation’s massacre of Bosnian Muslims at least slightly more inconvenient and your absurd equivocations stemmed from that. Thank for for confirming. The death and damage to infrastructure in Yugoslavia might be part of said slightly more inconvenience. | ||
|
SC-Shield
Bulgaria818 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:47 Dav1oN wrote: Boys, I've got a proposal not to mix ordinary citizens of Russia with kremlin, just in case. Since ordinary citizens are the save victims of the bloody regime, they deserve better and they still got many good people who are willing to build a better future for the whole Europe alongside with us all Yes, if citizens of Russia are encouraged to go out and protest in ever increasing numbers, I think this is one way how this war can end quickly without too many gunshots. I think this is what Zelenskyy was trying earlier by targeting Russian audience if I'm not mistaken? If millions of Russians go out, there aren't enough prison cells to arrest them all, so Russian government will have no choice but concede. Problem is fear... In my opinion, Russians should have protested a long time ago. How do you explain to locals that Dutch people have 5 times more GDP per capita, while being 0.24% size of Russia. Or, even funnier, how do you explain to Russians that Bulgarian GDP per capita is the same as Russia despite Russia being 154 times larger, and also that Bulgaria has better anti-corruption index. And we still have quite a lot of work to improve that. :D Putin always needed an external enemy / war because his domestic policy is tragedy. | ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday. Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine. Despite ceasefire accords covering the disputed land, Putin on Monday declared Russia's recognition of Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) as independent states. The surprising development from a traditional ally of Russia has the support of the United States. “We welcome Kazakhstan’s announcement that they will not recognize the LPR and DPR," the National Security Council said in a statement. "We also welcome Kazakhstan’s refusal to send its forces to join Putin’s war in Ukraine." Source | ||
|
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:56 SC-Shield wrote: How do you explain to locals that Dutch people have 5 times more GDP per capita, while being 0.24% size of Russia. I mean, most of the top countries by GDP per capita are tiny. Being large and/or populous is a pretty big disadvantage there. The other stuff might be tougher to justify but that one's easy. | ||
|
SC-Shield
Bulgaria818 Posts
On February 26 2022 10:04 LegalLord wrote: I mean, most of the top countries by GDP per capita are tiny. Being large and/or populous is a pretty big disadvantage there. The other stuff might be tougher to justify but that one's easy. Point is grabbing a land here and a land there isn't going to improve regular people's life in Russia. Invading Georgia, Ukraine's Crimea and Donbas (and now whole of Ukraine) isn't going to provide more food on the table at home. Russia needs to engage in democratic, capitalist path like the rest of us after 1989. Replacing one dictator with another isn't going to help. | ||
|
Dan HH
Romania9118 Posts
On February 26 2022 09:33 SC-Shield wrote: I mean, does Russia have any economy left to threaten at this point? I also thought about sanctions and typical Russian narrative, "sanctions don't work against us". Yeah, if you consider full package: - 70% of Russian banks, sanctioned - Aeroflot banned - Russia kicked out from Eurovision - Russia GP cancelled - Russia F1 cancelled - other economy sanctions - unpopular war at home, low morale / no good cause - sanctions keep coming from all around the world Can they afford to threaten anyone with sanctions? Military casualties and sanctions are a good recipe to lose popularity fast. Honestly, I think Putin's days in power are counted imho if he doesn't give up soon. Also, I think his implicit threat of nuclear war if there is external intervention is most likely bluff, too. He tries to sound tough, but all that's gonna happen is: actors 2:0 Russian dictators Actors - Reagan & Zelenskyy I've been keeping an eye on the Interfax live ticker for the past two days since it's pretty much the best source of non-editorialized news coming from Russia, and at peak hours every 10mins it's "banned from this", "removed from that", "x sanctioned", "y cancelled" from all over the place. It all adds up to the "are we the baddies?" perception. They're not a full-on autocracy, citizens' restrictions to information and fear of government are both significantly lower than in China for example. I can't imagine the PR disaster at home is sustainable, every extra day that Ukraine holds without accepting a puppet regime change is going to make this sting harder. | ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
| ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
edit: Reports that another Ilyushin Il-76 has been downed. | ||
|
maybenexttime
Poland5545 Posts
| ||
|
plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
| ||
|
Mafe
Germany5966 Posts
On February 26 2022 15:34 plasmidghost wrote: Quite nervous about what Putin will order now that the invasion is not going to plan. Also very happy that Zelenskyy is fighting with his people. May history remember him as a hero. Genuine question, since this isnt the first time I'm reading it: How do we know that it actually is going "worse" than Putin expected? | ||
|
iopq
United States909 Posts
On February 26 2022 15:42 Mafe wrote: Genuine question, since this isnt the first time I'm reading it: How do we know that it actually is going "worse" than Putin expected? According to US intelligence, which not only said the war was going to be in Jan or Feb, but also called his bluff when he said he's withdrawing from the border. The IC (US Intelligence Community) has some amazing sources. There were some earlier dates that were wrong, like 16th or 20th, but those were predictions from like a week out. When they said war in 48 hours, it started on time. At this point when they say it's not going well for Russians, it seems that there must be some elements in the Russian military that think so. | ||
| ||
