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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On February 26 2022 06:06 Mohdoo wrote:
If I had already decided being a soldier was a good idea for the right reasons, I would be traveling to Ukraine to fight for them. I would not be useful to them, for a variety of reasons, but mostly because I don't have the mental fortitude to kill someone. I wish there was a way to help fund people going to help.
accidentally made two posts in a row -.-
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NATO willing to give weapons but not willing to do enough to make sure they win? It makes no sense. NATO should listen to Putin saying Sweden will be given the same treatment and just pull the bandage off. Putin is insane.
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The Swiss are now in the fray.
Switzerland said it will enforce the latest sanctions announced by the European Union against Russia and ensure that its banks cut any contact with targeted Russian individuals and institutions.
“Financial intermediaries in Switzerland are now prohibited from entering into new business relationships” with the latest list of 363 people and four companies announced by the EU, the government said in a statement on Friday. “At the same time, financial intermediaries are obliged to immediately report existing business relationships with these individuals, companies and organisations,” the government said.
Top Swiss ministers on Friday sought to reiterate that the country, whose banks have long attracted Russian wealth, are taking a tough line on the Russian elite, even if Switzerland itself is not issuing sanctions. Economics Minister Guy Parmelin told reporters that the punitive measures being enforced “are very tough and constraining.”
Parmelin said that while he understood people might be frustrated and want the country to do more, the Swiss policy of neutrality and diplomacy is one that is decades-old and “respected and understood” in the EU.
Switzerland has begun to evacuate its embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv but plans to keep a skeleton staff of 6 or 7 officials, Swiss President Ignazio Cassis also said at the briefing.
Source
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On February 26 2022 06:09 Mohdoo wrote:
NATO willing to give weapons but not willing to do enough to make sure they win? It makes no sense. NATO should listen to Putin saying Sweden will be given the same treatment and just pull the bandage off. Putin is insane.
I believe the precise wording was not "NATO" but "some countries that are part of NATO" have decided to provide military equipment to Ukraine on their own - explicitly not as a NATO decision but as a decision on country level.
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On February 26 2022 05:51 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2022 05:50 Just_a_Moth wrote:On February 26 2022 05:45 zeo wrote:On February 26 2022 04:57 Oukka wrote:
The clarification on that was reported already at around 12:30 GMT by for example BBC. They are not taking minors, but over 60yos can volunteer. I highly doubt the BBC will mention minors are being armed. From the videos I've seen there are crates out in the open and you just go up to some guy and they give you the gun an ammunition. Not like they were checking for id's or writing down who they gave automatic weapons too. They had eight years to prepare the defenses of the city. Under the pretense that they were invaded by Russia large sums of money were pumped into their military complex by NATO member states and instead of defenses went all into the pockets of the Kiev elites. How else can you explain telling your own civilians to kamikaze into Russian forces barely 24h hours into active operations? They haven't deployed any modern equipment, basically using 30 year old tech and feeling out international reactions while they take over the part of the country that kind of doesn't care if they are there so they are being very very careful not to touch the civilian population. Any civilian carrying arms is not a civilian and will not be treated like a civilian. When Russia is done cleaning up the forces in eastern Ukraine and Kiev do you really think they will be careful not to use too much force in western Ukraine? Resistance and open hostility towards Russia gets you the same treatment the USA would give you. Shock and awe carpet bombing and long range artillery for days and days after which they walk over the ruins while whistling. Its sick and perverted to sacrifice the population of western Ukraine so you can feel good at your keyboard typing away in your first world bubble about 'sticking it to Putin'. Those people are going to have the same kind of time the Iraqis, Syrians, Lybians, Afganies had with the US. Not a good one. Your government handing you molotov cocktails to throw at professional soldiers is not stunning and brave. It gets you killed to stir up international sympathy. After one fucking day, thats the big plan. Go your your bunker and sacrifice the people. I hope, for your sake, that you're getting paid to post this stuff, and don't actually believe it. And that your country is never in the situation Ukraine finds itself today.
Edit: My apologies, that was over the line.
I am worried, that Putin can spin the narrative in a way, that whatever Ukraine does it gets spinned around. No one believes that they can hold on long enough for these toothles sanctions to bite.
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On February 26 2022 05:51 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2022 05:50 Just_a_Moth wrote:On February 26 2022 05:45 zeo wrote:On February 26 2022 04:57 Oukka wrote:
The clarification on that was reported already at around 12:30 GMT by for example BBC. They are not taking minors, but over 60yos can volunteer. I highly doubt the BBC will mention minors are being armed. From the videos I've seen there are crates out in the open and you just go up to some guy and they give you the gun an ammunition. Not like they were checking for id's or writing down who they gave automatic weapons too. They had eight years to prepare the defenses of the city. Under the pretense that they were invaded by Russia large sums of money were pumped into their military complex by NATO member states and instead of defenses went all into the pockets of the Kiev elites. How else can you explain telling your own civilians to kamikaze into Russian forces barely 24h hours into active operations? They haven't deployed any modern equipment, basically using 30 year old tech and feeling out international reactions while they take over the part of the country that kind of doesn't care if they are there so they are being very very careful not to touch the civilian population. Any civilian carrying arms is not a civilian and will not be treated like a civilian. When Russia is done cleaning up the forces in eastern Ukraine and Kiev do you really think they will be careful not to use too much force in western Ukraine? Resistance and open hostility towards Russia gets you the same treatment the USA would give you. Shock and awe carpet bombing and long range artillery for days and days after which they walk over the ruins while whistling. Its sick and perverted to sacrifice the population of western Ukraine so you can feel good at your keyboard typing away in your first world bubble about 'sticking it to Putin'. Those people are going to have the same kind of time the Iraqis, Syrians, Lybians, Afganies had with the US. Not a good one. Your government handing you molotov cocktails to throw at professional soldiers is not stunning and brave. It gets you killed to stir up international sympathy. After one fucking day, thats the big plan. Go your your bunker and sacrifice the people. I hope, for your sake, that you're getting paid to post this stuff, and don't actually believe it. And that your country is never in the situation Ukraine finds itself today.
My country was in the situation Ukraine is in today. And paid for it, dearly.
Also. Judging by the amount of logical fallacies being flung around while quoting me its obvious quite a few of you are nervous about 'your team' not winning and don't know how to react when there are multiple opinions. Its not about tribalism its about looking at the facts on the ground and coming to your own opinion based on a wide spectrum of sources. Saying that a minority coming to power through a coup and enforcing their views on everyone through force will end badly, admittedly, did get me labeled as a Putin bot. But guess what, I was right. And you can try to character assassinate me all you want it just shows how little substance your arguments have.
Because in the end: It's not propaganda if its true.
You're not the only people allowed to post here, there are many people lurking in these threads that are too scared to voice their opinion.
edit: not really aimed at you Oukka, sigh... I used to care less about the zealots
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Bulgaria has shut it's airspace to Russian planes.
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Putin and Lavrov sanctioned.
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On February 26 2022 06:20 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2022 05:51 Oukka wrote:On February 26 2022 05:50 Just_a_Moth wrote:On February 26 2022 05:45 zeo wrote:On February 26 2022 04:57 Oukka wrote:
The clarification on that was reported already at around 12:30 GMT by for example BBC. They are not taking minors, but over 60yos can volunteer. I highly doubt the BBC will mention minors are being armed. From the videos I've seen there are crates out in the open and you just go up to some guy and they give you the gun an ammunition. Not like they were checking for id's or writing down who they gave automatic weapons too. They had eight years to prepare the defenses of the city. Under the pretense that they were invaded by Russia large sums of money were pumped into their military complex by NATO member states and instead of defenses went all into the pockets of the Kiev elites. How else can you explain telling your own civilians to kamikaze into Russian forces barely 24h hours into active operations? They haven't deployed any modern equipment, basically using 30 year old tech and feeling out international reactions while they take over the part of the country that kind of doesn't care if they are there so they are being very very careful not to touch the civilian population. Any civilian carrying arms is not a civilian and will not be treated like a civilian. When Russia is done cleaning up the forces in eastern Ukraine and Kiev do you really think they will be careful not to use too much force in western Ukraine? Resistance and open hostility towards Russia gets you the same treatment the USA would give you. Shock and awe carpet bombing and long range artillery for days and days after which they walk over the ruins while whistling. Its sick and perverted to sacrifice the population of western Ukraine so you can feel good at your keyboard typing away in your first world bubble about 'sticking it to Putin'. Those people are going to have the same kind of time the Iraqis, Syrians, Lybians, Afganies had with the US. Not a good one. Your government handing you molotov cocktails to throw at professional soldiers is not stunning and brave. It gets you killed to stir up international sympathy. After one fucking day, thats the big plan. Go your your bunker and sacrifice the people. I hope, for your sake, that you're getting paid to post this stuff, and don't actually believe it. And that your country is never in the situation Ukraine finds itself today. My country was in the situation Ukraine is in today. And paid for it, dearly. Also. Judging by the amount of logical fallacies being flung around while quoting me its obvious quite a few of you are nervous about 'your team' not winning and don't know how to react when there are multiple opinions. Its not about tribalism its about looking at the facts on the ground and coming to your own opinion based on a wide spectrum of sources. Saying that a minority coming to power through a coup and enforcing their views on everyone through force will end badly, admittedly, did get me labeled as a Putin bot. But guess what, I was right. And you can try to character assassinate me all you want it just shows how little substance your arguments have. Because in the end: It's not propaganda if its true.You're not the only people allowed to post here, there are many people lurking in these threads that are too scared to voice their opinion.
This shows a pretty baffling misunderstanding of media communications. Truth is one of the most powerful weapons a propaganda ministry has. The best propaganda is just selective about which truth it communicates (and how it presents it) and which it makes accidentally fall out a window. Lets the falsity trickle in at just the right times.
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I don't know why, but it smells like either Putin is going to lose quicker than expected or he'll have to concede. Obviously, removing him from power is far better..
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On February 26 2022 06:30 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know why, but it smells like either Putin is going to lose quicker than expected or he'll have to concede. Obviously, removing him from power is far better..
It's probably a reflection of that this isn't very popular in Russia. Not really due to "the facts on the ground" but because they don't want a war.
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On February 26 2022 06:33 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2022 06:30 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know why, but it smells like either Putin is going to lose quicker than expected or he'll have to concede. Obviously, removing him from power is far better.. It's probably a reflection of that this isn't very popular in Russia. Not really due to "the facts on the ground" but because they don't want a war.
Wasn't this expected though? I don't think Ukraine and Russia are one nation, they now have very different mindset after 2013-2014. However, it's like a war between 2 brothers. Kind of like a war between US vs UK in 21st century, it's unheard-of. I don't know what Putin thought, maybe he got overconfident that people are that easy to brainwash that this is a good idea or that he'd beat them into submission.
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I have been thinking... The Ukrainians have every reason to unite and do everything they can to fight back. But what do the Russian soldiers fight for? How long can they hang in there with dwindling morale and international preasure? Elite units are great at quick, efficient and well planned operations, but occupying an enormous country for the foreseeable future is a completely different ballgame.
I am starting to believe Putin screwed up, we could even be witnessing another war similar to the 1939 winter war with Finland, which USSR lost in humiliating fashion.
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On February 26 2022 06:10 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:The Swiss are now in the fray. Show nested quote +Switzerland said it will enforce the latest sanctions announced by the European Union against Russia and ensure that its banks cut any contact with targeted Russian individuals and institutions.
“Financial intermediaries in Switzerland are now prohibited from entering into new business relationships” with the latest list of 363 people and four companies announced by the EU, the government said in a statement on Friday. “At the same time, financial intermediaries are obliged to immediately report existing business relationships with these individuals, companies and organisations,” the government said.
Top Swiss ministers on Friday sought to reiterate that the country, whose banks have long attracted Russian wealth, are taking a tough line on the Russian elite, even if Switzerland itself is not issuing sanctions. Economics Minister Guy Parmelin told reporters that the punitive measures being enforced “are very tough and constraining.”
Parmelin said that while he understood people might be frustrated and want the country to do more, the Swiss policy of neutrality and diplomacy is one that is decades-old and “respected and understood” in the EU.
Switzerland has begun to evacuate its embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv but plans to keep a skeleton staff of 6 or 7 officials, Swiss President Ignazio Cassis also said at the briefing. Source
Ehhh, after the recent scandal in Credit Suisse (coming after the previous scandals at Credit Suisse), my trust in Swiss oversight of their banks not dealing with criminals and scum is basically zero.
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On February 26 2022 06:40 Slydie wrote:
I have been thinking... The Ukrainians have every reason to unite and do everything they can to fight back. But what do the Russian soldiers fight for? How long can they hang in there with dwindling morale and international preasure? Elite units are great at quick, efficient and well planned operations, but occupying an enormous country for the foreseeable future is a completely different ballgame.
I am starting to believe Putin screwed up, we could even be witnessing another war similar to the 1939 winter war with Finland, which USSR lost in humiliating fashion.
Some fight because they've been told to fight, some because they don't know better and some because refusing to fight might have fairly ugly consequences. But in general the more Russia has to involve conscripts or reservists the easier it'll get for Ukraine.
Also it'd be fun to think that Soviets lost the winter war in a humiliating fashion, but maybe more accurate is that their losses were humiliating and Finland was not occupied or joined to the USSR. Large parts of land were ceded to the USSR tho.
EDIT: talks of possible negotiations being now reported by at least BBC and the Guardian. I saw Israel being flashed as one possible location/mediator, Russians obviously suggesting Minsk but that seems no different than Moscow at this point.
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On February 26 2022 06:33 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2022 06:30 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know why, but it smells like either Putin is going to lose quicker than expected or he'll have to concede. Obviously, removing him from power is far better.. It's probably a reflection of that this isn't very popular in Russia. Not really due to "the facts on the ground" but because they don't want a war.
True, but that does have an effect on the facts on the ground. They can obviously take Kiev, but if they have to do it with a bloodbath that would be un-spinnable at home.
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I think this could be very bad for Putin. He's done this entirely to shore up his strongman image with the domestic audience. He came to power faking terrorist bombings so he could go attack someone, and every time his base has become shaky since, he's returned to his vomit. This is a huge escalation but it's the same playbook.
The thing is, when you attack from a position of weakness, you are completely exposed if it fails. If the mighty heir to the soviet union ends up struggling to beat a country led by a comedian, Putin's image will be in tatters, the complete opposite of what he's trying to achieve. He does not have anywhere near the domestic support to do Ukrainistan, imo. He needs a quick win and a photo op in some palace in Kiev, not a drawn-out occupation.
A victory might still strengthen his grip on power, but a quagmire could destroy it. I think he's badly miscalculated the level of resistance. He needs the Ukrainian people to roll over, shrug and accept a regime change, and they do not seem inclined to do so at all. There's a real chance this could blow up in his rat-like face.
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On February 26 2022 06:40 Slydie wrote:
I have been thinking... The Ukrainians have every reason to unite and do everything they can to fight back. But what do the Russian soldiers fight for? How long can they hang in there with dwindling morale and international preasure? Elite units are great at quick, efficient and well planned operations, but occupying an enormous country for the foreseeable future is a completely different ballgame.
I am starting to believe Putin screwed up, we could even be witnessing another war similar to the 1939 winter war with Finland, which USSR lost in humiliating fashion.
Who knows...
My guess is that a major part of the forces involved thought they were going on a military exercise and got blindsided by the invasion order, which I assume is not too great for morale.
I can also imagine that they were subjected to some variation of the official Russian propaganda that they were going to "liberate" Ukraine from its genocidal Nazi regime. But I assume it would be a unpleasant surprise to find out that the population is not very keen on getting "liberated".
That being said, I'm sure there is a portion of the army that is simply motivated by nationalist and imperialist ideas of expanding the motherland. I also assume that most "elite" units have no ethical issues with a blatant invasion and don't need any motivation beyond just "doing their job".
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On February 26 2022 06:37 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2022 06:33 LegalLord wrote:On February 26 2022 06:30 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know why, but it smells like either Putin is going to lose quicker than expected or he'll have to concede. Obviously, removing him from power is far better.. It's probably a reflection of that this isn't very popular in Russia. Not really due to "the facts on the ground" but because they don't want a war. Wasn't this expected though? I don't think Ukraine and Russia are one nation, they now have very different mindset after 2013-2014. However, it's like a war between 2 brothers. Kind of like a war between US vs UK in 21st century, it's unheard-of. I don't know what Putin thought, maybe he got overconfident that people are that easy to brainwash that this is a good idea or that he'd beat them into submission.
There was definitely a means to settle this diplomatically. I don't think the terms of the October-January negotiations were ever going to get there, but looking at the situation there was definitely incentive to settle the matter eventually and no hurry to do so. The perspective from your average Russian was that that's what would actually happen, and that maybe some posturing would help towards that end. Maybe a limited defense of Donbass if that became necessary.
I'm not sure what the thought process here was either. Doesn't matter whether it's a quick win, a lengthy quagmire, or a quick withdrawal, the result of war is going to be people dying ("brothers" no less) and economic pain. It might be worth it in the case of a situation like 2014 where it was an all-around shitshow with widely debated morality of events, but going for war when diplomacy would have achieved a better, if slower, result? You'll find quite a few people who don't like that. I suspect a majority, but I doubt we'll see data on that for a while.
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On February 26 2022 06:49 Oukka wrote:
EDIT: talks of possible negotiations being now reported by at least BBC and the Guardian. I saw Israel being flashed as one possible location/mediator, Russians obviously suggesting Minsk but that seems no different than Moscow at this point.
Things I've heard on "let's negotiate" throughout the past day:
1. Zelensky saying "we can talk about Ukrainian neutrality."
2. Russia proposing "let's do Minsk."
3. Ukraine saying "how about Warsaw?"
4. The line of communication stalling in a way that suggests that February 25th is not the day for peace talks, but that Feb 26th might be it.
5. What you just posted above.
Thinking what would be neutral-ish places for talks - places that come to mind for me are Rome, Berlin, Athens, and Ankara. Israel is an interesting suggestion, though a bit out of the way and probably a little suspect to be the point for settling a European dispute.
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EPT
