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On October 15 2018 03:19 Toadesstern wrote:
Add me to the list of people happy to see Seehofer crashing and burning. I don't even dislike the CSU but that man needs to be out asap so that people can move on.
A bit sad that the SPD keeps losing even though I've never voted for them (and probably never will). But I do agree with Simberto's take on it, that grand coalition is really hurting them. Even more so than the CDU. Another grand coalition next election cycle would probably be really bad. People want something that's at least a bit different. Feel like SPD in the opposition would do much better but they have the FDP to blame for that (and people still don't like them for that move)
Also, really happy to see Greens getting a really strong result.
So tbh, job well done people in bavaria. Maybe aside from AfD getting this much but you can't have everything.
If things don't change massively, a grand coalition might not even have a majority next Bundestag.
I am very happy about all of the additional polls which clearly show that people think that refugees are not the most important topic they care about. So maybe we will see more talk about other important topics in the future. It is important to not allow only the right-wing extremists to set the topics of discussion.
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On October 15 2018 04:05 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2018 03:19 Toadesstern wrote:
Add me to the list of people happy to see Seehofer crashing and burning. I don't even dislike the CSU but that man needs to be out asap so that people can move on.
A bit sad that the SPD keeps losing even though I've never voted for them (and probably never will). But I do agree with Simberto's take on it, that grand coalition is really hurting them. Even more so than the CDU. Another grand coalition next election cycle would probably be really bad. People want something that's at least a bit different. Feel like SPD in the opposition would do much better but they have the FDP to blame for that (and people still don't like them for that move)
Also, really happy to see Greens getting a really strong result.
So tbh, job well done people in bavaria. Maybe aside from AfD getting this much but you can't have everything. If things don't change massively, a grand coalition might not even have a majority next Bundestag. I am very happy about all of the additional polls which clearly show that people think that refugees are not the most important topic they care about. So maybe we will see more talk about other important topics in the future. It is important to not allow only the right-wing extremists to set the topics of discussion.
yeah agree. I had a friend from TL (from the US) ask me about this probably a month or 2 ago and my only response to that was that I really don't think people care about refugees as much as the media and right-wing parties make it out to be? It's not on my mind at all and to be fair there's a chance that's just me and my environment over here but I don't know a single person who's really vocal about it.
People who are more or less fine with the situation won't be marching on the streets chanting for change, people who think things are going horribly wrong will be doing that. So it's important to realize that a large amount of people just doesn't care and you're probably not hearing anything from them because why would you.
Hence me really not liking Seehofer and his attempt to turn the CSU or CDU into this AfD-lite party. I like them being fiscally conservative but that doesn't mean you have to try and be everything else on the right as well. They literally lost just as many voters to the Greens, who are significantly more to the left than the CSU so I don't think I'm alone on that.
I think they basicly overshot their targets with a lot of things. When the AfD first started being a thing people mentioned that some people just feel left out because it's not "allowed" to talk about things like refugees without getting a look like you're some nazi so I think politicians tried to counteract that by encouraging more talks. And that's all good and all but at some point it's just enough. And that point, for me at least, is long since past. Doesn't mean people have to stop talking about it but it's really everything you hear about.
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I still can't find anything in english, but here are some French info :
Notre estimation, très prudente, est d'au moins 55 milliards d'euros d'argent public perdu depuis 2001. Ce chiffre comprend :
Les sommes dérobées aux Etats dans le cadre des montages de CumEx, clairement frauduleux :
7,2 milliards en Allemagne
1,7 milliard au Danemark
201 millions en Belgique
Les impôts optimisés grâce aux stratégies de CumCum, à la limite de la légalité :
24,6 milliards en Allemagne
17 milliards en France
4,5 milliards en Italie
The news are behind a paywall, this chat is public (and links to the full articles) : https://www.lemonde.fr/cumex-files/live/2018/10/18/cumex-files-posez-vos-questions-sur-le-casse-fiscal-du-siecle_5371221_5369767.html
Quick translation :
Our estimate, on the lower end, amounts to at least 55B of public funds lost since 2001. This amounts to :
Sums stolen from states, using CumEx schemes, clearly illegal :
7B in Germany
1.7B in Danemark
200M in Belgium
Unpaid taxes using CumCum schemes, bordering on illegality :
24.6B in Germany
17B in France
4.5B in Italy
This one explains the scheme pretty well, even though it's in French... At least it's not behind a paywall :-)
https://www.lemonde.fr/cumex-files/article/2018/10/18/cumcum-cumex-le-scandale-des-dividendes-explique-simplement_5371018_5369767.html
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European commission gives italy 4 more days till monday to clarify its budget for 2019.
They are moving very cautious and are only asking for an explanation. Europe is stuck here without many good options.
If they agree with the budget then that is not acceptable for several northern countries,nor the financial markets and it would create a precedent for other countries. If they dont agree with the budget then they cant do that much either i think. Italys government is democratic elected,cant shove that aside. Putting pressure with financial markets like done before with greece and also italy under berlusconi is not all that promising either,government will fall new elections will come which most likely wont change the situation in any way.
I think italy will "win" this battle and the eu will accept the budget with maybe a few small modifications. The other options do seem worse for now.
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Hey look, the Austrian bourgeoise puppet chancellor has found his voice again over the matter of the Italian budget. In his words it is "left-wing populism". Just like Macron beating Le Pen was a matter of left-wingers being downvoted.
That poor guy... What happened to the good old asylums for the mentally ill? He seriously needs treatment, my social heart can't stand seeing him having to face the challenges of daily life on his own!
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On October 19 2018 20:18 Big J wrote:
Hey look, the Austrian bourgeoise puppet chancellor has found his voice again over the matter of the Italian budget. In his words it is "left-wing populism". Just like Macron beating Le Pen was a matter of left-wingers being downvoted.
That poor guy... What happened to the good old asylums for the mentally ill? He seriously needs treatment, my social heart can't stand seeing him having to face the challenges of daily life on his own!
A collective ticket is needed then, in France it is not rare to see the M5S being labelled as "far-left" (LOL) and the M5S/Lega government being compared to a "populist alliance" between Mélenchon & Le Pen (LOL bis)
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Probably unwise to interfere in Italy's budget because that's just not a fight anyone can win and it'll just be perceived as EU imperialism or whatever and play badly in the upcoming parliamentary elections. That said the EU must fight a way to counter this narrative of being blamed for national political dysfunction.
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Brexit is becoming a big mess, hunderds of thousends of people (according to media here,not sure if correct) protesting for a 2nd brexit referendum. Well not really a 2nd referendum about brexit yes or no but a referendum about the deal that May is supposed to make with the eu about leaving. A deal which still isn't anywhere close to being made btw.
So first a deal,if at all,after months of negotiating. And then a 2nd referendum about the deal itself in Britain?
And if they don't agree with the deal then it is back to the drawing table or is brexit off completely then?
Its becoming difficult for me to see the trajectory that will lead to a brexit. So many people protesting,government can not easily ignore it.
Its time there comes a bit of clarity about the whole process. If leave then leave,if not then not.
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Brexit is happening. The question is what will be left after, if no deal is agreed upon then its a hard exit, not no exit.
Which is also why a referendum about the deal makes no sense. So many people will not understand it and vote against the agreement thinking it will mean no exit, rather then a worse exit.
If your looking for someone to blame for the mess don't so much look at the government. Look at the people who led the Brexit campaign and then ran away when they 'won'.
(tho there is plenty to blame on May for how the negotiations have gone and the completely unrealistic proposals)
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Imagine if they hold a second referendum and the people turn against Brexit, that's going to be a lot of fun. Plebiscites are just a horrible tool in democracies and do nothing to resolve conflicts.
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The problem is that a deal requires two sides. And time is running out for britain. A deal that the EU would take is apparently not a deal that britain likes. So they can referendum all they want, none of that is going to force the EU to agree to terms that they dictate.
The problem is that after you declared the exit, you are exiting. That is the default that will happen. The current negotiatons are not about exit or not exit, and they can not last forever. What is happening is that you said "We leave in two years". The "Brexit deal" that people are talking about is actually a negotiation about the relationship between Britain and the EU after that time is up. The leaving is not up to negotiation. And if there is no agreement, then what you get is the default agreement any other country has. Which basically means full taxes on everything, full border controls, need visa to do anything, etc...
That is obviously shitty. Mostly shitty for britain though. And the british population still seems to be under the impression that they can dictate terms that they like, and May is just not trying to dictate the right terms.
But no matter what you decide internally, you need to reach a deal with the EU, or that is all completely pointless. And you only have a few more months to do so.
Maybe after a bit of hard brexit, once you notice how shit that solution is, you can finally be at the level where you can agree to a deal that is also acceptable to the EU.
Basically, this is bad. People told you it was bad from the start, and that you were not going to get the things that you claimed you would be able to get. Britain didn't listen, and chose to brexit. Now they are utterly confused why they can't dictate terms to the EU. You probably could have in 1900, when you were the most important nation on the globe. But that 1900 attitude doesn't work from the negotiation position which you have in 2018. Which is that you need the EU far more than the EU needs you. But Britain doesn't seem to realize this, and at this point i think Britain will only realize it once the Hard Brexit has actually happened.
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700.000 people protesting against Brexit in London. No fucks given.
2000 guys chanting: "Merkel has to go" in Chemnitz, the German government almost collapses under media pressure.
Color me unsurprised. I find Stalinist methods more and more charming with everyday that passes in this fucking farce that is called "free press".
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The Brexit demonstration was the Top story in like every swiss newspaper?
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On October 18 2018 18:30 Nouar wrote:I still can't find anything in english, but here are some French info : Show nested quote +Notre estimation, très prudente, est d'au moins 55 milliards d'euros d'argent public perdu depuis 2001. Ce chiffre comprend :
Les sommes dérobées aux Etats dans le cadre des montages de CumEx, clairement frauduleux :
7,2 milliards en Allemagne
1,7 milliard au Danemark
201 millions en Belgique
Les impôts optimisés grâce aux stratégies de CumCum, à la limite de la légalité :
24,6 milliards en Allemagne
17 milliards en France
4,5 milliards en Italie
The news are behind a paywall, this chat is public (and links to the full articles) : https://www.lemonde.fr/cumex-files/live/2018/10/18/cumex-files-posez-vos-questions-sur-le-casse-fiscal-du-siecle_5371221_5369767.htmlQuick translation : Our estimate, on the lower end, amounts to at least 55B of public funds lost since 2001. This amounts to : Sums stolen from states, using CumEx schemes, clearly illegal : 7B in Germany 1.7B in Danemark 200M in Belgium Unpaid taxes using CumCum schemes, bordering on illegality : 24.6B in Germany 17B in France 4.5B in Italy This one explains the scheme pretty well, even though it's in French... At least it's not behind a paywall :-) https://www.lemonde.fr/cumex-files/article/2018/10/18/cumcum-cumex-le-scandale-des-dividendes-explique-simplement_5371018_5369767.html
a 2016 article on what i think is the same thing: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-commerzbank-taxes-idUSKCN0XU0SH
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The German government has again criticized schemes to help foreign institutional investors avoid a dividend withholding tax, following new media allegations of their widespread use, with Commerzbank(CBKG.DE) pledging on Tuesday to stop offering such services before the tax loophole is blocked by a new law.
Under current German law domestic funds can claim a credit on a 15 percent withholding tax paid on dividends which foreign funds cannot.
But a joint media investigation alleged that major funds were deliberately seeking to avoid paying the tax by lending their shares ‘cum dividend’ to German banks and investment funds who could make use of the dividend tax credit and taking them back days after the dividend is paid, leaving the shares entitled to the next dividend.
Newspapers Handelsblatt and the Washington Post, German public TV station Bayerischer Rundfunk and investigative journalism group ProPublica said they had uncovered the avoidance scheme in a cache of confidential documents which had been obtained by ProPublica, including emails, marketing materials, chat messages and other communications among participants in the schemes.
They said the documents also showed the loophole in German tax rules had been exploited by some of the world’s largest institutional investors including Blackrock (BLK.N) and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund to cut their tax bills.
The report reignited a debate about tax avoidance in Germany, where politicians and government rounded on a scheme that Wolfgang Schaeuble’s finance ministry dubbed illegitimate, even if it was not illegal.
They concluded that banks including Germany’s Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) arranged the widely used tax-avoidance scheme dubbed ‘dividend stripping’ or ‘cum cum’ trades, costing the tax payer 5 billion euros ($5.8 billion) in lost revenue since 2011. it's probably not in the news because it's still illegitimate but not illegal or you know, tinfoil hats and all ... oppression, suppression, negotiation.
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On October 22 2018 06:17 Big J wrote:
700.000 people protesting against Brexit in London. No fucks given.
2000 guys chanting: "Merkel has to go" in Chemnitz, the German government almost collapses under media pressure.
Color me unsurprised. I find Stalinist methods more and more charming with everyday that passes in this fucking farce that is called "free press".
You should have seen the last 5 days of "the French press against the main left-wing opponent," I had rarely witnessed such a wide scale propaganda operation
By the way, I came across this image and thought it would make you laugh, so I share:
+ Show Spoiler +
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On October 22 2018 17:31 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2018 06:17 Big J wrote:
700.000 people protesting against Brexit in London. No fucks given.
2000 guys chanting: "Merkel has to go" in Chemnitz, the German government almost collapses under media pressure.
Color me unsurprised. I find Stalinist methods more and more charming with everyday that passes in this fucking farce that is called "free press". You should have seen the last 5 days of "the French press against the main left-wing opponent," I had rarely witnessed such a wide scale propaganda operation By the way, I came across this image and thought it would make you laugh, so I share: + Show Spoiler +
I am becoming more and more of the opinion that conservativism is a mental illness that you get from being lazy. At some point when you are lazy you just start accepting surficial thoughts as truths and stop questioning your actions. You start thinking that the conclusions you have already reached in your life are indiscussable and true for everyone else, so they have to get in line and you don't need to change anything, how convenient!
That's the point where someone leaves the path of compromising, the ideals of freedom and mutual tolerance as principles of human interaction. Stability, security and power become the only ratio at this point and discussion ends.
It is a mainstream old people's disease and it is probably going to get worse given the population development.
It is also really common with progressive political movements. Once they had a few political successes they start to put securing the reforms first, for which they need to stay in power, turning them into another conservative faction. The bolshevist intelligentsia turned out to be another conservative party with elite claims to economic and social control in the style of "liberal" 19th century movements that wanted power, but only among themselves (only the rich were allowed to vote and represent). And with the extreme developments in economic distribution it seems like we are heading back exactly where we came from in 1914, when all of this collapsed first under the leadership of conservative kiddies with no other needs left but the demand for European hegemony.
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On October 22 2018 17:31 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2018 06:17 Big J wrote:
700.000 people protesting against Brexit in London. No fucks given.
2000 guys chanting: "Merkel has to go" in Chemnitz, the German government almost collapses under media pressure.
Color me unsurprised. I find Stalinist methods more and more charming with everyday that passes in this fucking farce that is called "free press". You should have seen the last 5 days of "the French press against the main left-wing opponent," I had rarely witnessed such a wide scale propaganda operation By the way, I came across this image and thought it would make you laugh, so I share: + Show Spoiler +
As if that didn't apply to the left equally well. :-)
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On October 22 2018 19:49 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2018 17:31 TheDwf wrote:On October 22 2018 06:17 Big J wrote:
700.000 people protesting against Brexit in London. No fucks given.
2000 guys chanting: "Merkel has to go" in Chemnitz, the German government almost collapses under media pressure.
Color me unsurprised. I find Stalinist methods more and more charming with everyday that passes in this fucking farce that is called "free press". You should have seen the last 5 days of "the French press against the main left-wing opponent," I had rarely witnessed such a wide scale propaganda operation By the way, I came across this image and thought it would make you laugh, so I share: + Show Spoiler + As if that didn't apply to the left equally well. :-)
You'd have to define "left" for that first. If we go from its origins, the "right" being those in favor of the monarchy and the status quo and the left being those in favor of democracy and individualism than by definition they wouldn't be left anymore if they abolished democracy. So inthat definition "the left" can't, but the former left can become right-wing by doing so of course.
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On October 22 2018 18:03 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2018 17:31 TheDwf wrote:On October 22 2018 06:17 Big J wrote:
700.000 people protesting against Brexit in London. No fucks given.
2000 guys chanting: "Merkel has to go" in Chemnitz, the German government almost collapses under media pressure.
Color me unsurprised. I find Stalinist methods more and more charming with everyday that passes in this fucking farce that is called "free press". You should have seen the last 5 days of "the French press against the main left-wing opponent," I had rarely witnessed such a wide scale propaganda operation By the way, I came across this image and thought it would make you laugh, so I share: + Show Spoiler + I am becoming more and more of the opinion that conservativism is a mental illness that you get from being lazy. At some point when you are lazy you just start accepting surficial thoughts as truths and stop questioning your actions. You start thinking that the conclusions you have already reached in your life are indiscussable and true for everyone else, so they have to get in line and you don't need to change anything, how convenient! That's the point where someone leaves the path of compromising, the ideals of freedom and mutual tolerance as principles of human interaction. Stability, security and power become the only ratio at this point and discussion ends. It is a mainstream old people's disease and it is probably going to get worse given the population development. It is also really common with progressive political movements. Once they had a few political successes they start to put securing the reforms first, for which they need to stay in power, turning them into another conservative faction. The bolshevist intelligentsia turned out to be another conservative party with elite claims to economic and social control in the style of "liberal" 19th century movements that wanted power, but only among themselves (only the rich were allowed to vote and represent). And with the extreme developments in economic distribution it seems like we are heading back exactly where we came from in 1914, when all of this collapsed first under the leadership of conservative kiddies with no other needs left but the demand for European hegemony.
I would not call it an illness but there are definitely some personality traits which make you more inclined towards authoritarian & conservative parties.
I think there is a generation effect more than an age one (though age can still make you more conservative, if only because your patrimony increases over time... or used to). At least in my country the 65+ generation is really abnormally conservative:
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/gRrnm98.jpg) % of votes in the 2017 French presidential for Fillon, who openly campaigned as a Christian conservative ( Ipsos source)
Which is probably explained by the fact that they were born in the religious, rural France of the mid-XXth century, and socialized when the "old moral order" was still a thing. The gap between people who were born in 1958-1967 and 1948-1957 is sociologically fascinating. No wonder the French right is still mad at Mai 68 50 years after lol
Another general bias to conservativism is that you're pretty much told to obey all your life. Family, school, work, obey because "it's like that" is the motto. It cannot not translate into politics.
Add the fact that the upper classes hold the pen when it comes to writing the story of our society + Show Spoiler +On the French TV, some recent institutional study found that 69% of the people appearing on the TV were from the upper classes vs... 3% workers
On October 22 2018 19:49 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2018 17:31 TheDwf wrote:On October 22 2018 06:17 Big J wrote:
700.000 people protesting against Brexit in London. No fucks given.
2000 guys chanting: "Merkel has to go" in Chemnitz, the German government almost collapses under media pressure.
Color me unsurprised. I find Stalinist methods more and more charming with everyday that passes in this fucking farce that is called "free press". You should have seen the last 5 days of "the French press against the main left-wing opponent," I had rarely witnessed such a wide scale propaganda operation By the way, I came across this image and thought it would make you laugh, so I share: + Show Spoiler + As if that didn't apply to the left equally well. :-)
Well, the left must suck at it then, considering it's losing in most countries. And the quote takes a special meaning when you see what happened in Brazil
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EPT![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqA_PhYWoAAqJnd.jpg)
