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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
On January 17 2019 00:26 Gorsameth wrote: The EU will readily accept a hard border in Ireland. Its an unacceptable solution for the UK, and especially the DUP that provides May with a majority government. I believe it's actually an unacceptable solution for the Republic of Ireland as well. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15736 Posts
The US has often used its extreme economic size to bully other nations. Trump tried to do that with European countries recently, but was unable to because of the rules governing the EU. The US GDP is 7x the size of Britain. Britain will get pounded if it actually leaves the EU. Currently, many countries in the EU enjoy the benefits of making deals as a single entity. Britain GDP = ~2.6T USA GDP = ~19T EU GDP = ~17T There is no question that Britain will be tossed around like a doll if they lose the bargaining power afforded by the EU. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On January 17 2019 01:48 Mohdoo wrote: The US has often used its extreme economic size to bully other nations. Trump tried to do that with European countries recently, but was unable to because of the rules governing the EU. The US GDP is 7x the size of Britain. Britain will get pounded if it actually leaves the EU. Currently, many countries in the EU enjoy the benefits of making deals as a single entity. Britain GDP = ~2.6T USA GDP = ~19T EU GDP = ~17T There is no question that Britain will be tossed around like a doll if they lose the bargaining power afforded by the EU. Modoo, do you know when the when, how and why the EU was formed and when the UK joined? | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15736 Posts
On January 17 2019 01:51 Plansix wrote: Modoo, do you know when the when, how and why the EU was formed and when the UK joined? According to Google: The United Kingdom made its first application to join in 1961. It was quickly apparent that there was a danger of political isolation within Western Europe, Commonwealth states were rushing to do deals with the new bloc, and it had American support. This application was vetoed by the French Government in 1963 with a second application vetoed by the French again in 1967. It was only in 1969 that the green light was given to negotiations for British membership. The United Kingdom joined the European Economic Community (as it then was) on 1 January 1973 with Denmark and Ireland. This proved controversial at the time. The Labour party initially sought renegotiation of membership. This was toned down to requiring a referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain part of the Community. This referendum was duly held in 1975 with a 67% vote in favour of continued membership. Based on that, it remains true that a small country benefiting from shared trade negotiations would suffer enormously by losing shared trade negotiations. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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Yurie
12021 Posts
On January 17 2019 02:10 Plansix wrote: So given that fact and that the UK was involved in two massive conflicts in Europe in the last 50 year, who do you think they were worried about being bullied by? The US, their oldest ally, or the European nations on their door step who are economically allied? Or did they have other reasons? Because the world of the 1960s and 1970s is not the world of today. Supermarket, for instance, were just rising in prominence in the US and UK. Sounds like a much more reasonable worry to me. The EU - UK trade deals will be interesting. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9769 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On January 17 2019 02:16 Jockmcplop wrote: Guys you don't even need to speculate about things that happened in the 20th century. If you have a theory just go look for evidence. That is sort of my point. These events already took place and many of the people involved are not longer in power and have spoken candidly about what took place. We don't need to speculate so to why a nation in the 20th century joined the EU. The work has been done for us and they even wrote it all down. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15736 Posts
On January 17 2019 02:10 Plansix wrote: So given that fact and that the UK was involved in two massive conflicts in Europe in the last 50 year, who do you think they were worried about being bullied by? The US, their oldest ally, or the European nations on their door step who are economically allied? Or did they have other reasons? Because the world of the 1960s and 1970s is not the world of today. Supermarket, for instance, were just rising in prominence in the US and UK. I am assuming being an old ally doesn't mean you go easy when it comes to money. Especially in our modern political climate where gentlemen's agreements don't really mean as much. I would not want my government to go easy on Britain because they are an ally. I would want us to get the best deal we can without being completely predatory. I also think the same is true for the EU. I imagine the EU will not go easy on Britain, especially since they want to send a message to other nations that might want to leave eventually. In many ways, the EU has incentive to put salt on Britain's wounds. I don't think I understand what the 60s or 70s have to do with the bargaining power of modern day Britain. I am familiar with the underlying reasons for joining the EU, I just don't see what that actually means modern day. | ||
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Longshank
1648 Posts
On January 17 2019 01:45 warding wrote: I believe it's actually an unacceptable solution for the Republic of Ireland as well. It is. A hard border will never be the solution in a deal from the EU, only ever as a consequence of a no-deal. And then it's not about accepting, just a matter of fact. A no deal scenario benefits no one and the EU will likely do what they can(without sacrificing its core principles) to avoid that. In practice that means granting an extension to a50 if the UK are signalling that they could accept a customs union for instance. From most interviews I've watched since yesterday, most people seem to agree that they need to find a majority for something in parliament, preferably yesterday, and a change of PM at this point won't do much. The thing that seems most likely is some cross-party version of a soft Brexit. If they can manage that I believe the EU should and would grant an extension. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22085 Posts
On January 17 2019 01:48 Mohdoo wrote: Mexico's GDP is even lower and their still not paying for Trump's wall.The US has often used its extreme economic size to bully other nations. Trump tried to do that with European countries recently, but was unable to because of the rules governing the EU. The US GDP is 7x the size of Britain. Britain will get pounded if it actually leaves the EU. Currently, many countries in the EU enjoy the benefits of making deals as a single entity. Britain GDP = ~2.6T USA GDP = ~19T EU GDP = ~17T There is no question that Britain will be tossed around like a doll if they lose the bargaining power afforded by the EU. UK's position on its own is weaker and their not going to get better deals then the EU, but not bullied. | ||
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Garrl
Scotland1975 Posts
corbyn has to be happy with that? As it gets closer to the deadline more and more MPs have to turn against may, unless she somehow magically gets an incredible deal. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Corbyn is probably unhappy. As time goes on, I think Corbyn has miscalculated by playing this game of chicken, not putting out any alternatives of their own, only attacking May, and will surely take the some of the blame for a hard brexit if it occurs. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23635 Posts
On January 16 2019 11:50 GreenHorizons wrote: Brexit is basically Britain not wanting to come to grips with it's declining global influence and desperately wanting to believe that leaving the EU will somehow stop that decline. But all the politicians know it won't/can't and none of them want to be caught holding the bag (seen as responsible for it). There seem to be a LOT of periphery arguments focused on avoiding that elephant in the room. At least that's what it looks like to me. I mean, that's what this argument over why they joined is right? | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9769 Posts
On January 17 2019 04:43 GreenHorizons wrote: I mean, that's what this argument over why they joined is right? I think there's an element of truth in this but at the same time Brexit has become a beacon for everybody's issues about everything in this country. I certainly think that at the beginning, the UKIP crowd who were really pushing hard for Brexit were at least trying to push the idea that Britain can be a huge, all encompassing empire again, even if only by innuendo. Appeals to national pride are all the more convincing in a fallen giant country like the UK. Just go back to a couple of years in this thread and look at bardtown's posts and you can see it. On January 17 2019 04:52 Zaros wrote: I think the only one that wins from this confidence vote is Michael Gove, he has everyone in the conservative party praising him for his sign off speech. + Show Spoiler + https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1085625439698239501 This was an absolute disgrace. A speech full of lies, but yeah it was well written. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On January 17 2019 05:10 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So the UK government literally can't/won't function because the Government in power doesn't like the opposition enough to vote a no confidence of their current leader? This is a government vote not just a leadership vote, they don't want to vote themselves out of power. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On January 17 2019 05:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Then why don't they vote for a new leader from their own benches? Because they failed the last attempt in December and by the party rules aren't allowed to try again for a year. | ||
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