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On January 16 2017 16:27 Laurens wrote: Well we could continue to point and laugh at the dropping pound, but that gets boring after a while. I'm sure the thread will be buzzing again after May's speech on Tuesday. Parity soon?
I'm sure I saw a nameless individual in this thread talking about the benefits for the UK of the pound being worthless. He was the only dissenting voice in that discussion.
Ex-governor of the Bank of England. Listen carefully.
1. The IMF had clearly stated that the pound was overvalued prior to the referendum 2. We float our currency precisely in order to absorb economic shocks in times of change 3. A lower pound has winners and losers. Winners = exporters, manufacturers. Our economy is imbalanced towards importing, which means bolstering exporters helps to address our trade deficit. 4. Bank of England has CUT interest rates, which is exactly the opposite of what you need to do if you are concerned about the strength of the currency. In other words, they do not consider a weaker pound to be a serious concern. 5. Inflation is still at around 1%. The public have thus far felt little to no effect from the devaluation.
I am definitely not the only person saying that the fall in the pound can have positive outcomes.
On January 17 2017 00:51 bardtown wrote: I've just told you. The UK is the EU's biggest export market with a huge surplus in their favour, and EU financial institutions are reliant on access to London's financial services. They can't afford to completely sever ties with the UK, and the UK has made red lines of free movement and supremacy of British law. Therefore, the EU has two choices: concede access to the single market for key industries (e.g. finance, automotive) without free movement, or risk a financial crash.
Most likely scenario is that all the trade that matters will continue tariff free and a few symbolic tariffs will be set up so the EU can claim that the UK is suffering for its decision. If, on the other hand, the EU tries to enforce a mutually detrimental deal then it will only serve to show why leaving was the right decision. Punishing the UK for the sake of threatening other EU countries would only serve to make the EU look tyrannical.
Technically being second to the US (for 2015 that is, source). I think if Trump and May work together, they might have a seriously strong position, representing about 40% of exports. Though I'm not aware how dependent both actually are on European technology (e.g. Hinkley Point?).
That includes UK exports to the US. Once the UK is outside the EU the UK will be the #1 export destination. I have also mentioned before that France's most successful bilateral trade relationship (in terms of surplus) is with the UK. Even if that weren't the case, it is unimaginable that they would jeopardise Hinkley Point when they are so heavily invested in its success.
Trump is clearly very pro-Brexit, but I don't know what influence he can really have. He can make angry noises if the deal seems unfair to the UK, I suppose, and that may be surprisingly effective. Or not.
Hasn't the pound already been on a downward spiral since many moons ago?
I can't say a weak pound would be good for the UK overall, at all. It's an island nation that is too dependent on imports and it simply doesn't have the resources to shake itself of that dependence.
On January 17 2017 00:51 bardtown wrote: I've just told you. The UK is the EU's biggest export market with a huge surplus in their favour, and EU financial institutions are reliant on access to London's financial services. They can't afford to completely sever ties with the UK, and the UK has made red lines of free movement and supremacy of British law. Therefore, the EU has two choices: concede access to the single market for key industries (e.g. finance, automotive) without free movement, or risk a financial crash.
Most likely scenario is that all the trade that matters will continue tariff free and a few symbolic tariffs will be set up so the EU can claim that the UK is suffering for its decision. If, on the other hand, the EU tries to enforce a mutually detrimental deal then it will only serve to show why leaving was the right decision. Punishing the UK for the sake of threatening other EU countries would only serve to make the EU look tyrannical.
Technically being second to the US (for 2015 that is, source). I think if Trump and May work together, they might have a seriously strong position, representing about 40% of exports. Though I'm not aware how dependent both actually are on European technology (e.g. Hinkley Point?).
That includes UK exports to the US. Once the UK is outside the EU the UK will be the #1 export destination. I have also mentioned before that France's most successful bilateral trade relationship (in terms of surplus) is with the UK. Even if that weren't the case, it is unimaginable that they would jeopardise Hinkley Point when they are so heavily invested in its success.
Trump is clearly very pro-Brexit, but I don't know what influence he can really have. He can make angry noises if the deal seems unfair to the UK, I suppose, and that may be surprisingly effective. Or not.
nope I substracted them
UK - 316,423,042,647 US - 371,295,059,668 - 60,417,712,410 = 310,877,347,258
I mean it's not such a significant difference, but as you're being technical...
On January 17 2017 02:43 LegalLord wrote: Hasn't the pound already been on a downward spiral since many moons ago?
I can't say a weak pound would be good for the UK overall, at all. It's an island nation that is too dependent on imports and it simply doesn't have the resources to shake itself of that dependence.
No it hasn't, and why should being an island nation have any impact on the need for imports?
because you need to import a lot of stuff if you live on an island. And yes the UK is an import dependent economy and profits from a strong currency as can be seen in the UK trade balance. A hit on the currency directly affects the purchasing power of UK citizens. The pound also is about 20% down since the brexit vote.
On January 17 2017 00:51 bardtown wrote: I've just told you. The UK is the EU's biggest export market with a huge surplus in their favour, and EU financial institutions are reliant on access to London's financial services. They can't afford to completely sever ties with the UK, and the UK has made red lines of free movement and supremacy of British law. Therefore, the EU has two choices: concede access to the single market for key industries (e.g. finance, automotive) without free movement, or risk a financial crash.
Most likely scenario is that all the trade that matters will continue tariff free and a few symbolic tariffs will be set up so the EU can claim that the UK is suffering for its decision. If, on the other hand, the EU tries to enforce a mutually detrimental deal then it will only serve to show why leaving was the right decision. Punishing the UK for the sake of threatening other EU countries would only serve to make the EU look tyrannical.
Technically being second to the US (for 2015 that is, source). I think if Trump and May work together, they might have a seriously strong position, representing about 40% of exports. Though I'm not aware how dependent both actually are on European technology (e.g. Hinkley Point?).
That includes UK exports to the US. Once the UK is outside the EU the UK will be the #1 export destination. I have also mentioned before that France's most successful bilateral trade relationship (in terms of surplus) is with the UK. Even if that weren't the case, it is unimaginable that they would jeopardise Hinkley Point when they are so heavily invested in its success.
Trump is clearly very pro-Brexit, but I don't know what influence he can really have. He can make angry noises if the deal seems unfair to the UK, I suppose, and that may be surprisingly effective. Or not.
nope I substracted them
UK - 316,423,042,647 US - 371,295,059,668 - 60,417,712,410 = 310,877,347,258
I mean it's not such a significant difference, but as you're being technical...
On January 17 2017 02:43 LegalLord wrote: Hasn't the pound already been on a downward spiral since many moons ago?
I can't say a weak pound would be good for the UK overall, at all. It's an island nation that is too dependent on imports and it simply doesn't have the resources to shake itself of that dependence.
No it hasn't, and why should being an island nation have any impact on the need for imports?
my bad lol, should have been more precise calculating
On January 17 2017 03:03 bardtown wrote: Can you please think before you post. Being an island nation has no impact on your domestic production.
If you run a highly developed economy you're strongly depended on pre-manufactured and raw materials, which the UK has to import almost exclusively, you're not Russia. Where do you think ARM gets the materials for their micro-electronics from? Only the last step of the supply chain happens in the UK.
On January 17 2017 03:03 bardtown wrote: Can you please think before you post. Being an island nation has no impact on your domestic production.
If you run a highly developed economy you're strongly depended on pre-manufactured and raw materials, which the UK has to import almost exclusively, you're not Russia. Where do you think ARM gets the materials for their micro-electronics from? Only the last step of the supply chain happens in the UK.
What you're saying is that the UK is smaller than Russia. Good observation. Has absolutely nothing to do with being an island and everything to do with land mass and natural resources. If anything, being an island decreases our need for imports as we have vast off-sea oil reserves.
You can't just manufacture everything out of oil. Every UK business that relies on imports feels the weakened currency. Again, the UK has been running a negative trade balance for about 30 years, that's not bad as long as you have a strong currency, but it makes no sense to dump it for no apparent reason. The UK doesn't even suffer from high unemployment or low growth. It is completely uncalled for.
On January 17 2017 03:03 bardtown wrote: Can you please think before you post. Being an island nation has no impact on your domestic production.
If you run a highly developed economy you're strongly depended on pre-manufactured and raw materials, which the UK has to import almost exclusively, you're not Russia. Where do you think ARM gets the materials for their micro-electronics from? Only the last step of the supply chain happens in the UK.
What you're saying is that the UK is smaller than Russia. Good observation. Has absolutely nothing to do with being an island and everything to do with land mass and natural resources. If anything, being an island decreases our need for imports as we have vast off-sea oil reserves.
Except you don't. They aren't yours and won't be under your control for very much longer. Plus I wouldn't be so happy with them anyways they pale in comparison to OPEC and the entire world is supposed to be decarbonising. Or we shall all be wearing gas masks sometime soon.
This boundary must be subject to negotiation between equal nations post independence, and in my opinion is most likely to end with referral to the International Court of Justice. I have no doubt the outcome would be a very great deal better for Scotland than the Blair-Dewar line, which would cost Scotland billions.
Nothing that any of you are saying has anything to do with being an island. Accept it and move on.
Also, as discussed many times previously, Scotland voted against independence and the outlook for an independent Scotland has only gotten worse since then. I know you hate it, but the UK is a thing.
You've been in this thread long enough to know I am the only dissenting voice in an echo chamber. You also know that I have argued extensively against all the arguments for remaining.
There is a very obvious reason for that. How does the UK have, objectively, a serious advantage? What advantage do they have? Use EU residents as bargaining chips? Congratulations on actually uniting the EU to record approval levels across the entire continent. Here we are not so stupid to think that any one country can really stand up to the BRICs, US, etc. But you keep on practicing your speeches in the mirror and making sure you spend as much time speaking to pensioners. I'm sure it means something in the long run.
But it's fine I want you to have a hard brexit. Simply because of the reprecussions for NI, and Scotland. Let Little England be just that; Little and isolated.
I'm an immigrant in the UK, but I'd rather the EU don't do whatever those "have your cake and eat it" guys want. Freedom of movement or get the fuck out. It sucks for the UK, but these are the rules. If the UK want different rules, they should have stayed to change rules, then quit. You are likely to change system when you're at a higher position.
Edit: Also, it's hilarious that Trump and random people predict that the EU will disband. It's more likely that Scotland will have another independence referendum than EU disbanding any time soon.
On January 17 2017 04:42 bardtown wrote: Nothing that any of you are saying has anything to do with being an island. Accept it and move on.
I really hate to say it, but bardtown is actually correct in this.
Being an island is not the determining factor in the amounts of imports the UK needs. A similarly large, similarly populated inland country with a similar economy would still need the same amount of imports. Being an island just determines how you can ship those imports toward the country.
Not that this is a really important point. The important question is how many imports the UK needs, not WHY it needs them, unless that WHY is something you can easily change if necessary, which it clearly is not.
On January 17 2017 04:42 bardtown wrote: Nothing that any of you are saying has anything to do with being an island. Accept it and move on.
Also, as discussed many times previously, Scotland voted against independence and the outlook for an independent Scotland has only gotten worse since then. I know you hate it, but the UK is a thing.
It is to do with it being a tiny island void of raw materials and any real manufacturing power.
It voted No to independence because we had propaganda shoved down our throat about if we left we would be forced to leave the EU. Oh look. The English don't give a shit, yet again. 52% causing this type of break is a fricking joke. Ireland will be reunited and Scotland will leave. We just need these negotiations to go terribly which they will, automatically.
Also why could English people who live in Scotland vote on Scottish independance yet EU people living in the UK could not nor could expats (hate the word) living in the EU? How to rig elections by the torries.
You have no idea what the Scots want, because you're not from there and do not visit there. Under 65s all want the same thing, especially now. In fact I believe that your understanding of the reprecussions to the level of ignorance that you display is simply because you have spent very little time outside of England- random English holidays to Little Englands like Ibiza, Mallorca etc do not count;
In classical macroeconomics, island nations, primarily by virtue of their limited climate differentiation, are significantly more reliant on imports than other nations; what those imports are specifically depends on the country being discussed. That said, larger island nations like the UK or Japan are typically afforded a different analysis, though it shouldn't be surprising for anyone to hear that England maintains a lot of import dependencies.
On January 17 2017 04:42 bardtown wrote: Nothing that any of you are saying has anything to do with being an island. Accept it and move on.
Also, as discussed many times previously, Scotland voted against independence and the outlook for an independent Scotland has only gotten worse since then. I know you hate it, but the UK is a thing.
It is to do with it being a tiny island void of raw materials and any real manufacturing power.
It voted No to independence because we had propaganda shoved down our throat about if we left we would be forced to leave the EU. Oh look. The English don't give a shit, yet again. 52% causing this type of break is a fricking joke. Ireland will be reunited and Scotland will leave. We just need these negotiations to go terribly which they will, automatically.
Also why could English people who live in Scotland vote on Scottish independance yet EU people living in the UK could not nor could expats (hate the word) living in the EU? How to rig elections by the torries.
You have no idea what the Scots want, because you're not from there and do not visit there. Under 65s all want the same thing, especially now. In fact I believe that your understanding of the reprecussions to the level of ignorance that you display is simply because you have spent very little time outside of England- random English holidays to Little Englands like Ibiza, Mallorca etc do not count;
If you think Scotland is going to vote for independence by more than 52% then you are deluded, so I'm sure you'll change your tune if it ever happens. But it won't any time soon. Support for independence is down. I genuinely hope they have another vote, because they're just going to lose even harder and then perhaps we can put this nonsense to bed. And even if they do vote for independence, then they will be outside both the EU and the UK (which is a much, much more significant 'export' market for Scotland than the EU, incidentally). As for Ireland - you clearly know nothing about it. It is a fantasy to think that a) NI wants to leave the UK, b) Ireland wants to absorb NI. NI is a significant expense. In either case the English won't be especially upset. It is tiresome being accused for everything bad that happens in Scotland when you already have all the powers you need to make changes. If Scotland does become independent it will have to drop its victim complex and actually take responsibility for itself. Might be just what it needs!
As for travelling, I do visit Scotland every now and again. I lived in Romania in 2015 and Norway the year before. I've been to at least a dozen other countries in Europe, too. I was in Keleti station when they gave all the migrants there tickets to Vienna without Austria's permission, for example. Luckily I was heading east but my friend was going to Vienna. She had to stand on the step of the carriage and her train got stopped at the border and then set on fire. Going to Lebanon later this year. It's a fair bet that I know more about what is going on in the world than your average Scottish 16 year old who gets their understanding of the world from mainstream media.
What do 16 year old Scots have to do with anything?
As you have proven, you source most of your information; unless linking it from tabloid sources. I don't believe any of your claims for living overseas or randomly travelling to Scotland. I think you are an unemployed Brexiteer talking shit on this website with no actual interest in Starcraft which is odd... So you were apparently in Budapest what 15 years ago when that was a problem? lol. A Eurotrip doesn't mean you understand a place either.. As bad as those Americans saying (but at least credit to them for actually leaving NA) "I'm going to do Europe this summer".
I dont know why I engage you, it's probably because you are the only idiot on here that consistantly spouts pro Brexit BS.
T. May's speech was about as pointless as it was predicted to be. At least now, in all likelyhood, they will debate nonsense for 2 years and then not actually leave due to failure to reach a positive response in Parliament.
But bardtown, you got confused about what county Cambridge was in. That's why we think you are a little...uncultured. In any case, the Scottish independence vote was 55% to 45%. That margin was enough for a continued devolution of powers to Scotland. Speaking to most Scottish people, if a hard brexit occurs, the support for Scotland to leave UK will most certainly rise. For whatever reason, a lot of Scottish people live in the EU, and maintain links back home. Understandably, they and their families will be rather unhappy once they lose the rights to work and live in the EU freely. Personally I think that Scotland should remain in the UK, as both are better together, just as UK and the EU are better together, but not if UK fully leaves the EU.
In any case bardtown, you are just so full of shit. Your European travel story just sounds...strange, like you never actually visited those places before. Like who calls it keleti instead of Budapest-Keleti? You are just so full of hate and so weirdly nationalistic. You are so desperately proud of UK (which is not a bad thing by the way) yet you are so full of hatred of the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish on both sides of the border. And uh, of any English people who don't share your opinions. With attitudes like "If Scotland does become independent it will have to drop its victim complex and actually take responsibility for itself" you just sound so...uncultured. As for Northern Ireland, the issue is comples, but in the odd circumstance that border controls will have to be placed in between Ireland and NI, it is entirely plausible that NI might just decide to have it's own independence to allow itself back in the EU. Let me tell you as one of the "the English" that yes I would be rather upset if any of the countries which make up the UK decides to leave it. That's onother thing. You talk as if you somehow represent everybody in the country. You do not.
Also what is this? "Might be just what it needs!" You do know that people don't talk like this in real life right? People don't talk like a sensationalist clickbait article. Just saying.
EPT
