|
On December 17 2012 04:23 Caihead wrote:Japan just had another election vote and the old PM Yoshihiko Noda is losing to Shinzo Abe, who is one of the most hated figures in terms of his stances on white washing and denying Japan's actions in WWII. He also visits the Shrines on multiple occasions.
Ahh, never really followed Japanese politics, or politics in general. Thanks.
|
They actually went and elected that guy again...Japanese politics once again showing how messed up it is. Guess Japan is finished lol.
|
On December 17 2012 06:05 Taku wrote:
They actually went and elected that guy again...Japanese politics once again showing how messed up it is. Guess Japan is finished lol.
At least we do not have Shintaro Ishihara in charge, that would be really bad.
|
Shintaro Ishihara!! congrat on been elected. 
Free Tibet! <-- that too
|
Sanya12364 Posts
Hmmm, Abe is back with the same old LDP economic policy. It's insanity. They're going to try the same tactics of borrowing for infrastructure spending that failed again and again previously. I don't see how this time it's going to be any different. Only this time, the Japanese government creeps closer and closer to default.
What can't be denied is that Asian nationalism is back in force and now the claws are out as China's military is expanding and Japan is rearming itself. The islands are a bit of posturing that the Chinese Communist Party at the national level probably would like to do without. China needs reform on its domestic institutions and the national level politicians are looking to do that for long term viability. However, at the local level, the external diplomatic strife is a good distraction of internal injustices of the political and justice system. Naturally, we're going to see Japan and China butt heads and North Korea could be one hell of a powder keg.
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
with how strong the yen is the japanese government isn't in danger of any default anytime soon.
|
On December 18 2012 02:15 oneofthem wrote:
with how strong the yen is the japanese government isn't in danger of any default anytime soon.
What does the strength of the yen have to do with chance of default?
As far as I know, if a country with debt denominated in its own currency can print money, it will only default if it actually wants to, and I can see no situation in which a country would willingly default (maybe a borderline hyperinflation situation, but even then I doubt so).
|
Sanya12364 Posts
Of course, country issuing debts under its own paper currency can always run the printing presses. This prevents defaulting on government bonds, but government promises such as healthcare, infrastructure, and pension programs are not really denominated in paper currency. Devaluating via the printing press will interfere with ability of the government to function in its general welfare capacity. Running the printing presses is one time fix, as it will effectively destroy future access to lending. Running the printing presses is currency end-stage tactics.
Japanese government is currently at 225% of GDP and that is over 20 times tax revenue. Interest rates for 10 year bonds is less than 1%. The financing works as long as interest rates continue to stay that low.
|
First, a default is worse for internation confidence in a country's debt than any ammount of money printing, so I maintain that defaulting is not on the table for any relevant discussion.
Second, Running the printing presses in the long run creates inflation (and all costs attached to it), but doesn't "effectively destroy future access to lending" in any way or form (especially in a developed economy as large as Japan's). Inflation expectations get built into the interest rate and that's that. I also figure it doesn't "interfere with ability of the government to function in its general welfare capacity", but to tell the truth I've no idea how it would do so in the first place, so maybe you can explain what you mean by that.
Edit: In no way am I saying that resorting to the printing press is a good idea. I'm just arguing that any comment refering to Japan defaulting is absurd no matter which way you look at it.
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
idk that much about japan, but they've been trying to have a bit of inflation to control debt and spur real economy for a long time with no success. a bit of inflation at this point is certainly welcome for japan.
as for currency strength, just my shorthand way of saying that the bond market is not rejecting yen at all. they are not in danger of default, but they are suffering from debt squeezing spending power, from both private and public sources.
|
Sanya12364 Posts
Japan's economic malaise has more to do with its dysfunctional banking system and regulation driven requirements for large banks. Japan's banks are required by law to hold lots and lots of JGBs. This has the triple effect of making government bond yields low, denying capital to the rest of the economy, and depressing the savings rate. Unraveling such a monster without running many consecutive budget surpluses will be disastrous.
Yet, government fiscal policy is trapped. It can't increase on the revenue side because after years of starving the private economy of capital, wage growth has been so poor that households are squeezed. Increase taxation is unviable. The government is trapped on spending because the political powerful rural districts and construction companies continuously push through infrastructure spending as "stimulus" and welfare. As long as the pattern holds, the default of the Japanese government is just an inevitability.
Abe and the LDP is Japan's political norm and puts the country back on the trajectory for higher government spending and ever higher public debt. The difference this time might be that BoJ is under pressure by Abe to soak up all the treasury bonds that the banking system can't absorb at the desired interest rate. If that plays out it's going to be somewhat similar to running the printing presses.
|
On December 18 2012 04:15 oneofthem wrote:
idk that much about japan, but they've been trying to have a bit of inflation to control debt and spur real economy for a long time with no success. a bit of inflation at this point is certainly welcome for japan.
as for currency strength, just my shorthand way of saying that the bond market is not rejecting yen at all. they are not in danger of default, but they are suffering from debt squeezing spending power, from both private and public sources.
Ah, ok. Currency strenght usually refers to the exchange rate, so that was my confusion.
|
On December 18 2012 04:37 TanGeng wrote:
Japan's economic malaise has more to do with its dysfunctional banking system and regulation driven requirements for large banks. Japan's banks are required by law to hold lots and lots of JGBs. This has the triple effect of making government bond yields low, denying capital to the rest of the economy, and depressing the savings rate. Unraveling such a monster without running many consecutive budget surpluses will be disastrous.
Yet, government fiscal policy is trapped. It can't increase on the revenue side because after years of starving the private economy of capital, wage growth has been so poor that households are squeezed. Increase taxation is unviable. The government is trapped on spending because the political powerful rural districts and construction companies continuously push through infrastructure spending as "stimulus" and welfare. As long as the pattern holds, the default of the Japanese government is just an inevitability.
Abe and the LDP is Japan's political norm and puts the country back on the trajectory for higher government spending and ever higher public debt. The difference this time might be that BoJ is under pressure by Abe to soak up all the treasury bonds that the banking system can't absorb at the desired interest rate. If that plays out it's going to be somewhat similar to running the printing presses.
While it sounds reasonable and so on you are wrong on a couple of your assumptions, while you maybe studied it partly or have knowledge about other countries and not Japan your conclusion and analysis is wrong or explained in the wrong way or connected in the wrong way between some things you know and some you don't. These four areas are the major things you're mistaken about, first is the bank system and regulations, second is the postal-service/bank, third is private capital and savings and fourth partly about the construction, at least in the way you put it.
|
Ah. Shinzo Abe is back, and so is this thread. I knew it. Starting in 2006, no Prime Minister lasted more than 2 years. This is going to be 7th PM in 7 years in Japan, which is crazy to say the least. At this point, whether PM is left-wing liberal or right-wing conservative doesn't matter as much as political stability itself. Having a new PM annually really hurts Japan domestically and internatinally. PM is not "player of the year" for sports. Well, with Lionel Messi winning FIFA Ballon d'Or twice in a row or LeBron James winning NBA Most Valuable Player for the third time, Japanese PM is even more short-living.
For a long time, it has been said that Japan has a first-rate economy with third-rate politics. First-rate economy isn't necessarily true any more, and politics should become at least second-rate soon. I hope that this political chaos in Japan ends ASAP and Abe stays in office for at least 3 years or so despite my disagreements with many of his policies.
|
|
|
On December 18 2012 05:13 Orek wrote:
Ah. Shinzo Abe is back, and so is this thread. I knew it. Starting in 2006, no Prime Minister lasted more than 2 years. This is going to be 7th PM in 7 years in Japan, which is crazy to say the least. At this point, whether PM is left-wing liberal or right-wing conservative doesn't matter as much as political stability itself. Having a new PM annually really hurts Japan domestically and internatinally. PM is not "player of the year" for sports. Well, with Lionel Messi winning FIFA Ballon d'Or twice in a row or LeBron James winning NBA Most Valuable Player for the third time, Japanese PM is even more short-living.
For a long time, it has been said that Japan has a first-rate economy with third-rate politics. First-rate economy isn't necessarily true any more, and politics should become at least second-rate soon. I hope that this political chaos in Japan ends ASAP and Abe stays in office for at least 3 years or so despite my disagreements with many of his policies.
Wow seven PMs in seven years!? Can I assume that the PMs have essentially been recalled? If so, why are they being recalled after such a short duration?
As cynical as I am regarding U.S. politics, is it possible that another country has surpassed us in incompetency?
|
It's the strangest thing, to me. Japan has undergone what in many countries would be political instability leading to riots, clashes between rival supporters, mass demonstrations, whatever. Yet Japan has just continued, and the people there never seemed to care who was in power. They just shook their heads and said shoganai - it can't be helped. International news has pointed to the unprecedented election results a couple of years ago as a sign things are changing - nope. Couldn't be further from the truth.
Japanese politicians tend to come from the same schools, the same small pool, and they are pretty similar in outlook and temperament. This one downplays their recent past, that one apologises, but the economy continues in a downward spiral. The construction industry calls the shots on domestic spending, forcing through projects unnecessary and destructive, simply to keep the money flowing. All that matters is that the bureaucracy keeps on trucking, and the yennies keep getting spent, and it does no matter who is in power.
The Japanese people have the same problem as a lot of countries do these days - lack of a viable alternative. The US faced that very problem last election, with too many dissatisfied with Obama but Romney was a terrible choice instead, and there just aren't any other legitimate parties to choose from. They don't have a decent choice who will stand up and deal with the vast problems they are facing - the strong yen and the massive gulf between spending and income, the population that is way too old and immigration that is very restrictive. Japan is heading for implosion very soon as they just don't have enough workers to pay for their elderly, and nobody is addressing that. I fear for their future.
|
On December 18 2012 05:51 Sanctimonius wrote:
It's the strangest thing, to me. Japan has undergone what in many countries would be political instability leading to riots, clashes between rival supporters, mass demonstrations, whatever. Yet Japan has just continued, and the people there never seemed to care who was in power. They just shook their heads and said shoganai - it can't be helped. International news has pointed to the unprecedented election results a couple of years ago as a sign things are changing - nope. Couldn't be further from the truth.
Japanese politicians tend to come from the same schools, the same small pool, and they are pretty similar in outlook and temperament. This one downplays their recent past, that one apologises, but the economy continues in a downward spiral. The construction industry calls the shots on domestic spending, forcing through projects unnecessary and destructive, simply to keep the money flowing. All that matters is that the bureaucracy keeps on trucking, and the yennies keep getting spent, and it does no matter who is in power.
The Japanese people have the same problem as a lot of countries do these days - lack of a viable alternative. The US faced that very problem last election, with too many dissatisfied with Obama but Romney was a terrible choice instead, and there just aren't any other legitimate parties to choose from. They don't have a decent choice who will stand up and deal with the vast problems they are facing - the strong yen and the massive gulf between spending and income, the population that is way too old and immigration that is very restrictive. Japan is heading for implosion very soon as they just don't have enough workers to pay for their elderly, and nobody is addressing that. I fear for their future.
Europe and the USA are in a similar situation btw. Japan is merely a prelude.
|
Sanya12364 Posts
On December 18 2012 05:54 sekritzzz wrote:
Europe and the USA are in a similar situation btw. Japan is merely a prelude.
Hypothetically, I believe Euro and USA would blow up at an earlier point given the same situation. Society is just not as homogenous and obedient as that of Japan. EU would already be at a breaking point because of lack of identity as EU citizens. At least US is unified by the sense of being "American." However, US would probably run into racial and geographical discontent soon after. As expressed by another poster, I don't think either EU and US could survive getting into Japan's situation of two decades of economic stagnation. However, based on the amount of anticipation and build up it does feel like Japan's implosion would be more apocalyptic.
Someone will drop by and simply say that I'm wrong.
|
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
On December 18 2012 05:31 Ldawg wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2012 05:13 Orek wrote:
Ah. Shinzo Abe is back, and so is this thread. I knew it. Starting in 2006, no Prime Minister lasted more than 2 years. This is going to be 7th PM in 7 years in Japan, which is crazy to say the least. At this point, whether PM is left-wing liberal or right-wing conservative doesn't matter as much as political stability itself. Having a new PM annually really hurts Japan domestically and internatinally. PM is not "player of the year" for sports. Well, with Lionel Messi winning FIFA Ballon d'Or twice in a row or LeBron James winning NBA Most Valuable Player for the third time, Japanese PM is even more short-living.
For a long time, it has been said that Japan has a first-rate economy with third-rate politics. First-rate economy isn't necessarily true any more, and politics should become at least second-rate soon. I hope that this political chaos in Japan ends ASAP and Abe stays in office for at least 3 years or so despite my disagreements with many of his policies. Wow seven PMs in seven years!? Can I assume that the PMs have essentially been recalled? If so, why are they being recalled after such a short duration? As cynical as I am regarding U.S. politics, is it possible that another country has surpassed us in incompetency?
They all resigned. The Japanese are big on responsibility, so if there's a relatively big screw-up of any kind they resign (I'm sure you've heard of samurai and seppuku).
On December 18 2012 05:51 Sanctimonius wrote:
It's the strangest thing, to me. Japan has undergone what in many countries would be political instability leading to riots, clashes between rival supporters, mass demonstrations, whatever. Yet Japan has just continued, and the people there never seemed to care who was in power. They just shook their heads and said shoganai - it can't be helped. International news has pointed to the unprecedented election results a couple of years ago as a sign things are changing - nope. Couldn't be further from the truth.
Japanese politicians tend to come from the same schools, the same small pool, and they are pretty similar in outlook and temperament. This one downplays their recent past, that one apologises, but the economy continues in a downward spiral. The construction industry calls the shots on domestic spending, forcing through projects unnecessary and destructive, simply to keep the money flowing. All that matters is that the bureaucracy keeps on trucking, and the yennies keep getting spent, and it does no matter who is in power.
The Japanese people have the same problem as a lot of countries do these days - lack of a viable alternative. The US faced that very problem last election, with too many dissatisfied with Obama but Romney was a terrible choice instead, and there just aren't any other legitimate parties to choose from. They don't have a decent choice who will stand up and deal with the vast problems they are facing - the strong yen and the massive gulf between spending and income, the population that is way too old and immigration that is very restrictive. Japan is heading for implosion very soon as they just don't have enough workers to pay for their elderly, and nobody is addressing that. I fear for their future.
The Japanese have become quite apathetic in terms of protests. They had a few mass protests during the couple decades directly preceding World War 2 but those ended up changing not a single thing, so there's a "whatever" mentality going on. Plus, their culture makes it hard for them to go out and protest as well. It would take something a lot more crazy for them to take to the streets (say, a repeal of Article 9 or something). After the recent earthquake there were protests against nuclear energy which the younger generations took a main role in, but in terms of political sway the youth are outnumbered heavily and have a lower voting turnout than the elderly.
Japanese politics is rife with nepotism, and it's hurting them a lot (Abe is the grandson and grand nephew of two Prime Ministers). This will never change unless the Japanese public force a change, and the public will not force a change unless something absolutely crazy happens. Abe's former resignation was due in large part because of the corruption stemming from within his own party in which convictions were handed out to some top-ranking officials, but apparently that is not enough to get people to sue for change (on the contrary, they re-elected him). They thought things would change with the DPJ, but they didn't realize that by just changing the party in power and not the system and, especially, their own mentality, not much will improve.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
