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On November 06 2012 13:32 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. I always wondered, how are internal polling numbers superior to analysis of aggregated polls? What insight or data do they have that external polls don't? Honest question here.
They have databases that dwarf facebook/google/boa/etc---COMBINED-- wrt voter information. Remember we've been calling people since February about preferences. That gets aggregated with the millions upon millions they spend on personal information. And this data is constantly being refreshed every two years (or more). And we don't call just 1,000 people or so--we call all of them. The amount of data the parties have is seriously incredible. If they have models predicting something, I'll trust them over the media automated polls 100% of the time.
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On November 06 2012 13:32 BluePanther wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry? .... sigh. Nevermind, I forget I'm talking to a bunch of liberals with fingers in their ears. I'm not relating partisan information, you know. Just remember this tomorrow. It's much closer than RCP has it. I'll just leave it at that.
Republican internal poll numbers released to the public => not partisan information. I remember 3 days ago you were advocating how much more accurate RCP is than most other sources.
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On November 06 2012 13:35 BluePanther wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:32 Defacer wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. I always wondered, how are internal polling numbers superior to analysis of aggregated polls? What insight or data do they have that external polls don't? Honest question here. They have databases that dwarf facebook wrt voter information. Remember we've been calling people since February about preferences. That gets aggregated with the millions upon millions they spend on personal information. And this data is constantly being refreshed every two years (or more). And we don't call just 1,000 people or so--we call all of them. The amount of data the parties have is seriously incredible. If they have models predicting something, I'll trust them over the media automated polls 100% of the time.
So it's not just a random sample? You're saying they call every single registered voter?
For reals?
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On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry?
Then why was Bill Clinton sent to Philadelphia today? If it was a lock? So he has a good chance of catching pneumonia and not being a pain in Obama's ass for the next 4 years?
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On November 06 2012 13:37 Feartheguru wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:32 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry? .... sigh. Nevermind, I forget I'm talking to a bunch of liberals with fingers in their ears. I'm not relating partisan information, you know. Just remember this tomorrow. It's much closer than RCP has it. I'll just leave it at that. Republican internal poll numbers released to the public => not partisan information. I remember 3 days ago you were advocating how much more accurate RCP is than most other sources.
I didn't say anything about polls that had been released to the public.
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On November 06 2012 13:37 RCMDVA wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry? Then why was Bill Clinton sent to Philadelphia today? If it was a lock? So he has a good chance of catching pneumonia and not being a pain in Obama's ass for the next 4 years?
Because the election is all but a lock at this point, why not counter what the Republicans are doing to minimize risk.
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On November 06 2012 13:38 BluePanther wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:37 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:32 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry? .... sigh. Nevermind, I forget I'm talking to a bunch of liberals with fingers in their ears. I'm not relating partisan information, you know. Just remember this tomorrow. It's much closer than RCP has it. I'll just leave it at that. Republican internal poll numbers released to the public => not partisan information. I remember 3 days ago you were advocating how much more accurate RCP is than most other sources. I didn't say anything about polls that had been released to the public.
So you are a Republican insider with information no one else but high ranking member of the GOP has?
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On November 06 2012 13:24 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. It is a waste of time to point out anything that contradicts Nate Silver around here. Best just wait til tomorrow.
Nate Silver is just giving odds based on the aggregated results of all the polls. If Romney does win, it's basically means that most polls are failing massively.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On November 06 2012 13:31 cLAN.Anax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:17 Souma wrote:
Guys, the fortune from the fortune cookie I just ate says, "A surprise will come from an unexpected source."
That doesn't sound good~ Third party upset? :-D *crosses fingers* Some of you might find this "poll" of sorts interesting. Friend of mine recommended it and it seems very unbiased and thorough. I suggest you give it a shot and post your results. I'll be posting mine in a sec. http://www.isidewith.com/#52574784
i wouldn't say it's thorough, but it gets the major issues and candidate positions well, so you are distinguished amongst the choices given. i'm probably a neoliberal imperialist to jill stein but i get her at 93% based on that platform.
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On November 06 2012 13:37 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:35 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 13:32 Defacer wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. I always wondered, how are internal polling numbers superior to analysis of aggregated polls? What insight or data do they have that external polls don't? Honest question here. They have databases that dwarf facebook wrt voter information. Remember we've been calling people since February about preferences. That gets aggregated with the millions upon millions they spend on personal information. And this data is constantly being refreshed every two years (or more). And we don't call just 1,000 people or so--we call all of them. The amount of data the parties have is seriously incredible. If they have models predicting something, I'll trust them over the media automated polls 100% of the time. So it's not just a random sample? You're saying they call every single registered voter? For reals?
I'm not sure exactly how they come up with the predictive models, but I can assure you it's more accurate than whatever some newspaper poll reports. I mean, they have databases that rival the census bureau, and aggregate it with voter preferences. They are pretty accurate at knowing who are solid votes and who are wishy washy and such.
If you've ever volunteered at a phone bank, you have an idea of what I'm talking about. Those numbers that pop up on the phone aren't random-- they are preselected based on who they want to target with said script. I spent a good chunk of my summer crosschecking databases with absentee and early voting records to eliminate names and tally votes (we were one percent off our prediction). And we didn't even have the GOP's database back then.
The things the GOP could do... well, they are probably far more accurate than even we were.
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On November 06 2012 13:38 Feartheguru wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:37 RCMDVA wrote:On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry? Then why was Bill Clinton sent to Philadelphia today? If it was a lock? So he has a good chance of catching pneumonia and not being a pain in Obama's ass for the next 4 years? Because the election is all but a lock at this point, why not counter what the Republicans are doing to minimize risk.
It ain't over until it's over. Even though all the polls give Obama the lead, the lead in every swing state is narrow enough that Romney can still steal it.
To put it another way, it's hard to lose a basketball game with 10 seconds left and a three point lead. But if you and your team just stand there with your thumbs up you asses with ten seconds left ... you'll lose.
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On November 06 2012 13:39 Feartheguru wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:38 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 13:37 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:32 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry? .... sigh. Nevermind, I forget I'm talking to a bunch of liberals with fingers in their ears. I'm not relating partisan information, you know. Just remember this tomorrow. It's much closer than RCP has it. I'll just leave it at that. Republican internal poll numbers released to the public => not partisan information. I remember 3 days ago you were advocating how much more accurate RCP is than most other sources. I didn't say anything about polls that had been released to the public. So you are a Republican insider with information no one else but high ranking member of the GOP has?
Lol, not exactly. But I hear stuff because I work with insiders. I know more than you do (and that's not meant as a slight).
Not all of it is kept super close to the chest, but that doesn't mean they're going to report it to the media. What would they have to gain by saying "our prediction is that we are super close but are still going to lose." No, they tell the media they think they'll win and they spend a ton of money in hopes that they can.
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On November 06 2012 13:38 Feartheguru wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:37 RCMDVA wrote:On November 06 2012 13:26 Feartheguru wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. You do realize why he's laughing, don't you? Well evidently not. No shit GOP numbers have him within striking distance, you think they'll leak information days before the election telling you they're making a desperate last ditch hail marry? Then why was Bill Clinton sent to Philadelphia today? If it was a lock? So he has a good chance of catching pneumonia and not being a pain in Obama's ass for the next 4 years? Because the election is all but a lock at this point, why not counter what the Republicans are doing to minimize risk.
Bill Clinton is out there cause Obama would much rather attend a basketball game instead.
Hes not countering anything, just being flat out ignorant cause he thinks he will take it. Medias done enough to cover up everything hes gotten away with. Also, Obamas been a pain in the Clintons ass, not the other way around, there's a reason why Hillary refused his vp offer 4 years ago.
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On November 06 2012 13:40 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:24 xDaunt wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. It is a waste of time to point out anything that contradicts Nate Silver around here. Best just wait til tomorrow. Nate Silver is just giving odds based on the aggregated results of all the polls. If Romney does win, it's basically means that most polls are failing massively.
Correct, but with two caveats. One, Silver has gone out of his way to defend those polls. Two, there has been no shortage of posters around here who have seen fit to throw Silver's blog in my face (and in the faces of other like-minded posters) when discussing the polls.
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On November 06 2012 13:07 jdseemoreglass wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:04 Defacer wrote:On November 06 2012 12:59 Zaqwert wrote:
Obama will probably win and this thread will erupt in high fives and celebration.
Meanwhile every person under 18 in this country is inheriting $218,676 in national debt.
WOW, we did it you guys! FOUR MORE YEARS!
It's a great irony in life that all the silly children supporting him this time will be the one inheriting the disaster of a country his policies will leave behind. What's the national debt when you add 5 to 7 trillion to it, as Romney has essentially proposed? You are right, there is no real choice when it comes to this issue. There hasn't been for decades.
It hasn't quite been 20 years since Clinton was first elected yet 
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On November 06 2012 13:48 HunterX11 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:07 jdseemoreglass wrote:On November 06 2012 13:04 Defacer wrote:On November 06 2012 12:59 Zaqwert wrote:
Obama will probably win and this thread will erupt in high fives and celebration.
Meanwhile every person under 18 in this country is inheriting $218,676 in national debt.
WOW, we did it you guys! FOUR MORE YEARS!
It's a great irony in life that all the silly children supporting him this time will be the one inheriting the disaster of a country his policies will leave behind. What's the national debt when you add 5 to 7 trillion to it, as Romney has essentially proposed? You are right, there is no real choice when it comes to this issue. There hasn't been for decades. It hasn't quite been 20 years since Clinton was first elected yet
Remember when what to do with the surplus was the major election-cycle question? I think that there was a pretty big debt choice in the 2000 election.
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On November 06 2012 13:47 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 13:40 Defacer wrote:On November 06 2012 13:24 xDaunt wrote:On November 06 2012 13:21 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:55 Sub40APM wrote:On November 06 2012 12:49 BluePanther wrote:On November 06 2012 12:38 Unholy_Prince wrote:On November 06 2012 12:36 BluePanther wrote:
allegedly the internal polls are very close in PA. That could be a game-changer. Internal polls have around a 6 point bias towards the party they come from. PA isn't going red. Internal polls are they ones where they base their spending money on and are far more elaborate and accurate than polling agencies. I'm not talking out of my ass here. Apparently Romney's move there wasn't based on desperation; they actually think they can win it. l.o.l. You do realize where I get this information, don't you? GOP numbers have him within striking distance. I still paint it blue, but he's got a legit shot. The Philly poll problems will come into play. It is a waste of time to point out anything that contradicts Nate Silver around here. Best just wait til tomorrow. Nate Silver is just giving odds based on the aggregated results of all the polls. If Romney does win, it's basically means that most polls are failing massively. Correct, but with two caveats. One, Silver has gone out of his way to defend those polls. Two, there has been no shortage of posters around here who have seen fit to throw Silvers blog in my face (and in the face's of other like-minded posters) when discussing the polls.
LOL. I didn't know one of the caveats was you're fucking resentment of listening to the same argument over and over. 
As for the first caveat, I think Silver isn't defending the polls, as much as he's defending ... well, math, and the merits of his work Even if the polls are flawed they are no more or less flawed then they always been, and he tries to anticipate and compensate for their error accordingly.
I don't think Silver is shitting on guys like Blue Panther, but rather big-headed pundits that are essentially talking out of their asses and filling air-time.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
clearly more space lasers
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I've lived in america my whole life, and I chose: THIS is the world's only superpower? We're all doomed.
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EPT
