Republican nominations - Page 417

On February 08 2012 15:20 On_Slaught wrote:
Gingrich has to drop out now if he wants Romney to lose. Staying in will just steal votes from santorum. If Gingrich dropped out tommorow, then Santorum could ride this momentum to a victory imo... Republicans are that meh on Romney. Ofc he won't drop out tho.

On February 08 2012 16:37 TOloseGT wrote:
As for Colorado, it's a mixture of disillusionment with Romney, seeing through Newt's bullshit, and Democratic trolling.

On February 08 2012 16:28 ZeaL. wrote:
Interesting factoid:

Of the 8 primary/caucus states so far:

Romney has won: Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada
Romney has lost: Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina

In the Democratic 2008 primary, of those states,

Hillary Clinton won: Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada
Hillary Clinton lost: Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina

Whatever your perspective on how likely Mitt Romney was to lose the Republican nomination race prior to Tuesday evening, it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable.

In Minnesota, a state which Mr. Romney carried easily in 2008, he has so far failed to win a single county — and got just 17 percent of the vote. That put him 27 points behind Rick Santorum, and 10 points behind Ron Paul, who finished in second.

Missouri is a less important result since its beauty contest primary did not count for delegate selection and since turnout was understandably low there. But Mr. Romney lost all 114 counties in Missouri — and the state as a whole by 30 points, far more than polls projected.

Then there was Colorado, a state that has reasonably similar demographics to Nevada, which Mr. Romney carried easily on Saturday. Colorado has somewhat fewer Mormon voters than Nevada, which hurts Mr. Romney — but it has somewhat more wealthy ones, which favors him. The betting market Intrade gave Mr. Romney about a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado entering the evening. But he lost the state by 5 points to Mr. Santorum.

What’s more, the victor in all three states was Mr. Santorum, who is probably much more dangerous to Mr. Romney than Newt Gingrich. Mr. Gingrich had an awful evening, finishing a distant third in Colorado and last in Minnesota. But that may only work against Mr. Romney in the end.

Mr. Romney clearly has a lot of advantages in the nomination race, and Mr. Santorum will need to scale his campaign up to the national level, something he had failed to do successfully after Iowa.

However, I would advise our readers to be good Bayesian thinkers and consider how easily tonight’s evidence fits in to the perspective they had on the race going into Tuesday evening.

After Florida, I proposed five paths forward for the Republican nomination. Most of these paths resulted in Mr. Romney’s nomination. But some implied a much longer and more difficult race, and some put him at a tangible risk of defeat.

The evidence from Tuesday night was much more consistent with those scenarios, and much less so with those in which Mr. Romney wraps up the nomination easily.

WASHINGTON -- It was a very bad night for Mitt Romney Tuesday, no matter which way you sliced it, another harsh blow undermining his argument that he is the strongest Republican candidate for president.

It happened in Iowa on Jan. 3. It happened Jan. 22 in South Carolina. And on Tuesday night, Romney was again rejected by a large portion of the Republican electorate, this time in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) won Missouri and Minnesota by large margins, capturing 55 percent of the vote in Missouri to Romney's 25 percent, and winning Minnesota -- a state Romney won in the 2008 primary -- with with 45 percent of the vote. Romney came in third there with only 17 percent of the vote, finishing behind Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), who got 27 percent. Santorum won all 114 of Missouri's counties.

"Conservatism is alive and well in Missouri and Minnesota," Santorum crowed, at a rally in St. Charles, Mo. "Tonight was a victory for the voices of our party, conservatives and Tea Party people."

In Colorado, where Romney won the 2008 caucuses with 60 percent of the vote, Santorum also won. The state Republican party called the race for Santorum a few minutes after 11 p.m. (1 a.m. Eastern Standard Time), giving him a 40 percent to 35 percent win over Romney.

Romney has suffered setbacks before in this primary -- and Santorum has had a burst of momentum before, after his win in Iowa. But the former Massachusetts governor's losses Tuesday were the worst yet, even if technically no delegates were awarded. No amount of spinning by the Romney campaign about delegate counts could obscure what the night made crystal clear: their candidate remains unable to excite passion in the GOP and remains a long way from closing the deal with voters.

Romney is still in the best position to win the nomination, purely because he is the best equipped for a drawn out primary that requires organization and money. He can outlast Santorum, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who had such a terrible showing that he didn't even hold an election night rally and gave no speech, but is nonetheless looking ahead to southern state contests in March.

On February 08 2012 17:48 Sufficiency wrote:
To be honest, I am not too surprised.

I don't agree with Santorum's policies, but I really think that he is an honest guy - and he is not Ron Paul and his stupid libertarian principles.

If I were a conservative in U.S. I'd honestly vote for him. Too bad his remarks regarding "universities are bastions of liberalism" makes me cringe.

On February 08 2012 18:17 vetinari wrote:


Universities being a bastion of liberalism isn't exactly untrue. Its pretty well known that most fields of academia, with the possible exception of business faculties are decidedly to the left of the national median, across the western world. On the other hand, the private sector is decidedly towards the right of the median, again, throughout the west.

On February 08 2012 18:17 vetinari wrote:


Universities being a bastion of liberalism isn't exactly untrue. Its pretty well known that most fields of academia, with the possible exception of business faculties are decidedly to the left of the national median, across the western world. On the other hand, the private sector is decidedly towards the right of the median, again, throughout the west.

On February 08 2012 18:22 firehand101 wrote:

Hey, ron paul is not stupid!