On October 05 2012 04:22 Holy_AT wrote: A Turkey/NATO intervention would be a very good option. Major fightings would be over in about two-three weeks when turkey forces thrust through the center regions of the Assad Regime. This land based assault would be supported by NATO air strikes. Pockets of resistance in the outer region would then crumble within another 1-2 weeks.
Assad would be shot hiding in a tunnel or some waterpipe and that would be the last to hear about him. An interim government would be established following the first elections in Syria in about 1 to 1 1/2 years.
You are kidding right? And the Russian fleet there would do what in the meantime?!
Are you suggesting that the Russians would try to intervene on behalf of Assad? Because that's beyond ridiculous.
Syria and Turkey exchanged artillery fire for a fifth straight day on Sunday, while insurgents struck police headquarters in Damascus, in the third high-profile attack in the Syrian capital in recent weeks.
The escalating pressure in the capital and along the border present a rising pair of challenges for the Assad regime, which already accuses outside forces, including Turkey, of working with the rebels to destabilize the country.
A bomb in the Damascus police headquarters' parking lot caused the powerful blast that killed a police officer, said an official at the interior ministry.
In Turkey, there were no immediate reports of casualties in the early afternoon after a shell landed close to a grain-storage facility, witnesses said, several hundred yards from the town center in Akçakale, the border town where Syrian artillery killed five Turkish citizens on Wednesday.
Yeah and they're still going, to be honest I consider it only a matter of time before Turkey will try to play a more active role in the war.
I just wonder whether or not that will trigger Assad to start using biological or chemical weapons, we know Turkey has the same capabilities, this could get very ugly for everyone in and around Syria.
Another thing to consider if Moscow will react if Turkey invades Syria on it's own, them trying to defend Assad in the case of a UN intervention is rediculous, but against a single country which only advantage is knowing the terrain better, that might change things. It's not like the UN will do shit, Russia and China will make sure of that, and if Turkey faces Russian opposition, I could see the US getting drawn into this and it turning into a full blown proxy war like Vietnam.
Only a theory ofcourse, theoretically speaking Assad could get assassinated and peace could be negotiated in a couple of weeks, or this conflict could carry on for 30 more years and destroy everything left in Syria, either way though, when this is over, it will be a long time before Syria will have the capability to do anything but rebuild.
Another thing to consider if Moscow will react if Turkey invades Syria on it's own, them trying to defend Assad in the case of a UN intervention is rediculous, but against a single country which only advantage is knowing the terrain better, that might change things. It's not like the UN will do shit, Russia and China will make sure of that, and if Turkey faces Russian opposition, I could see the US getting drawn into this and it turning into a full blown proxy war like Vietnam.
Russia is going to stop Turkey how? By sending an army through the countries in the Caucasus between it and Turkey? By bombing Turkey? By using Ukrainian territory (Sevastopol) not just as a base for the Black Sea Fleet, but a staging area for that fleet to attack Turkey from? Ukraine is just going to say okay to that? I think that takes the Russian-Ukrainian lease agreement on the naval base there a bit farther than intended.
Turkey isn't some half-rate ass-backwards power, they have a modern and sizable military. Russia in its current state could not win a war against Turkey. The only way Russia could even try to get at Turkey is through the air and Russia's air force got embarrassed against Georgia 4 years ago. Turkey has the same American anti-air missile and radar technology that Georgia has (which resulted in Georgia downing 9 Russian jets in the brief war, something that was of big concern to the Russian high command).
Another thing to consider if Moscow will react if Turkey invades Syria on it's own, them trying to defend Assad in the case of a UN intervention is rediculous, but against a single country which only advantage is knowing the terrain better, that might change things. It's not like the UN will do shit, Russia and China will make sure of that, and if Turkey faces Russian opposition, I could see the US getting drawn into this and it turning into a full blown proxy war like Vietnam.
Russia is going to stop Turkey how? By sending an army through the countries in the Caucasus between it and Turkey? By bombing Turkey? By using Ukrainian territory (Sevastopol) not just as a base for the Black Sea Fleet, but a staging area for that fleet to attack Turkey from? Ukraine is just going to say okay to that? I think that takes the Russian-Ukrainian lease agreement on the naval base there a bit farther than intended.
Turkey isn't some half-rate ass-backwards power, they have a modern and sizable military. Russia in its current state could not win a war against Turkey. The only way Russia could even try to get at Turkey is through the air and Russia's air force got embarrassed against Georgia 4 years ago. Turkey has the same American anti-air missile and radar technology that Georgia has (which resulted in Georgia downing 9 Russian jets in the brief war, something that was of big concern to the Russian high command).
I'm not a military specialist so I don't know what the best approach would be to attack Turkey from a Russian standpoint, I do however know that Ukraine has an extremely pro Russian government right now, being part of the Russian minority that has somehow *cough russian sponsored election fraud *cough become the ruling party.
I have no doubt that Turkey's army is formidable, the thing is just that Russia has always had one of the biggest armies around, which makes an awful lot of sense considering how massive the country and economy are, the Russian airforce is one thing but IIRC they have the largest amount of tanks of any country as well. Russia is 3rd on the list of highest military expenditures, Turkey a rather dissapointing 15th, just behind Canada and Australia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
There are good reasons Russia has a permanent seat on the UN and veto rights and Turkey doesn't, you could argue a case against France or England still being in there, but not against Russia.
On October 09 2012 06:07 zalz wrote: Turkish army is stronger than the Russian army.
Turkey is part of NATO and would not stand Russian agression against a NATO member.
Russia doesn't give a shit about Syria.
I just gave you a list of military expenditures per country, where Russia dwarfs Turkey, if you're going to make statements like "Turkish army is stronger than the Russian army." please provide some form of proof or reasoning, because it sounds like you're just making shit up.
The NATO is obviously a factor, but I think we've seen recently political organs like that can be slow and ineffective, not to mention that with the crisis and all, nobody wants to get into a war with Russia, this is all based on the very unlikely contingent that Russia even get's into the war.
Who cares about the Russian army? They are not going to go to war with a NATO country over Syria. The important thing is the Turkish army dwarfs that of Syria. If the Turks have enough of this shelling then they invade and topple Assad. Then they will make sure they have a new Syrian regime that is more friendly to them. I think Assad is finished, regardless of whether Turkey intervenes or not. If he doesn't get assassinated he will have to flee, probably end up in Iran.
Putin does not have the political leverage like his first term. Anyways...
A Syrian-bound passenger plane intercepted by Turkey was carrying Russian-made munitions destined for Syria's defence ministry, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.
"This was munitions from the Russian equivalent of our Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation being sent to the Syrian Defence Ministry," Erdogan told a news conference on Thursday.
"Their examination is continuing and the necessary will follow," he added.
Turkish jets forced the plane, en route from Moscow to Damascus, to land in Ankara.
Meanwhile, a large bomb exploded in an area housing security and army compounds west of Umayyad Square in the centre of the capital, Damascus, according to activisits. There is no confirmation of any casualties.
On October 09 2012 06:07 zalz wrote: Turkish army is stronger than the Russian army.
Turkey is part of NATO and would not stand Russian agression against a NATO member.
Russia doesn't give a shit about Syria.
I had no doubts you're living in another world of your own... but it takes a whole new level to say that the turkish army is stronger than russia's which is (if) only second to US's.
Also the NATO treaties involve defense reasons not offensive reasons to activate it. Meaning that if Turkey declares they are on their own unless the full NATO goes with them.
Syrian rebels have captured an air defence base east of Aleppo as government forces battled fighters on several fronts across the country, activists say.
The air defence base seized by the rebels was located in al-Tana village by the Koris military airport on the road east from Aleppo to al-Raqqa, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Friday.
Clashes were also taking place at a military barracks close to Maarat al-Nuaman, a town on the main highway to the northwestern city of Aleppo, which was seized by rebel forces earlier this week, the Observatory said.
The pro-opposition Observatory said rebels had gone on the offensive killing more than 100 soldiers in two days.
Fourteen soldiers died in an attack on an army post in the southern province of Daraa on Friday, it said, a day after the army suffered 92 losses, the highest daily total for the military of the 19-month conflict.
The Britain-based watchdog gave a death toll for Thursday of more than 260 people, including civilians and fighters on both sides in violence in the capital and the north, west and east.
The official SANA news agency also reported fighting nationwide and said dozens of rebels, which it called "mercenary terrorists", had been killed.
The reports could not be independently verified but they indicate a rapidly intensifying conflict, with the death tolls of the past several weeks far exceeding previous months.
Syria has said its military command is still studying a proposal for an Eid al-Adha ceasefire with rebels, contradicting international mediator Lakhdar Brahimi's announcement that Damascus had agreed to a truce.
With the Muslim holiday beginning at sunset the day before, Thursday will be the first test of whether either side intends to silence their guns, at least temporarily.
Brahimi, the joint UN-Arab League special envoy, told a news conference in Cairo on Wednesday that both the government and most rebel groups would observe the truce for the Muslim holiday.
Within an hour, Syria's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the proposal was still being studied and that "the final position on this issue will be announced (Thursday)".
A previous ceasefire arrangement in April collapsed within days, with the government and the opposition each accusing the other of breaking it.
Susan Rice, the American envoy to the United Nations, told reporters that "many are duly skeptical about prospects for even a temporary ceasefire, given Assad's records of broken promises".
She said the United States "strongly supports" Brahimi's call for a ceasefire, but she added that the "government must make the first move".
Syria's army command has said it will suspend military operations to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, declaring a ceasefire from Friday morning to Monday.
But the army said it reserved the right to respond to rebel attacks and bombings, in a statement on state television on Thursday.
The statement said the military would also respond to "terrorist groups trying to reinforce their positions by arming themselves and getting reinforcements" as well as neighbouring countries facilitating the smuggling of fighters across borders during the ceasefire.
Just after the government's announcement, a commander in the opposition Free Syrian Army told the Reuters news agency that its fighters would commit to the truce, but demanded the release of opposition prisoners on Friday.
The truce was brokered by Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN-Arab League envoy, who said that the four-day ceasefire could lead to a longer truce and political negotiations between the sides.
Thankfully the western leaders seemed to have learned and are not supporting the rebels in syria too much. Naturally erdogan wants to establish himself as a the leader of the new sunni powerbloc. The only shiite country remaining will be iran and the extremistic parts of the sunnis are getting more and more powerful.
On October 12 2012 16:32 Pika Chu wrote: I had no doubts you're living in another world of your own... but it takes a whole new level to say that the turkish army is stronger than russia's which is (if) only second to US's.
Also the NATO treaties involve defense reasons not offensive reasons to activate it. Meaning that if Turkey declares they are on their own unless the full NATO goes with them.
Strength of Russian army is overestimated. It is not a superpower anymore like it was USSR once. Russia has lost the cold war and since collapse of USSR represents just a shadow of former USSR industrial and military power. It plays its global role as the resource supplier now. The Russia vs NATO war is impossible. Russia cannot issue money for its economy when needed (currency board), Russian state money are all in the western banks, Russian elite have bank accounts, property, families in the western countries. The country is a part of the global western system now. Russian army decayed a lot. Enormous corruption, reforms, aimed to get big contracts (and kickbacks) with the western army suppliers, especially French. France offers the highest kickbacks on arms contracts.
Turkey will never attack Syria unless given a permission from US. Assad's regime is still strong. They could not buy enough high officials and high rank officers, the army is active, the population supports him in majority. They can see what has happened to "democratic" Iraq and Libya and do not want that chaos at home. The war will be very bloody, if ever happens.
Israel's military says its tanks have scored "direct hits" on Syrian artillery units after Syrian mortar shells fell near an Israeli army post.
It comes a day after Israel fired warning shots after it said a Syrian shell hit another of its army posts on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
The episode is the most serious between the two countries since the Arab-Israeli war of 1973.
Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We are closely monitoring what is happening and will respond appropriately.
"We will not allow our borders to be violated or our citizens to be fired upon."
'Tough response' It was not clear if the tank-fire caused any casualties, Israeli Army Radio reported. "The Assad army asked Israel to stop firing," it added.
While significant development, the episode does not mean Israel is being dragged into Syria's civil war, says the BBC's Wyre Davies in Jerusalem.
In fact, he adds, Israeli political and military leaders say the tank-fire is exactly the opposite - a tough but clear message to Syria that Israel will not tolerate any more bullets and mortars landing in its territory.
Israel's military says its tanks have scored "direct hits" on Syrian artillery units after Syrian mortar shells fell near an Israeli army post.
It comes a day after Israel fired warning shots after it said a Syrian shell hit another of its army posts on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
The episode is the most serious between the two countries since the Arab-Israeli war of 1973.
Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We are closely monitoring what is happening and will respond appropriately.
"We will not allow our borders to be violated or our citizens to be fired upon."
'Tough response' It was not clear if the tank-fire caused any casualties, Israeli Army Radio reported. "The Assad army asked Israel to stop firing," it added.
While significant development, the episode does not mean Israel is being dragged into Syria's civil war, says the BBC's Wyre Davies in Jerusalem.
In fact, he adds, Israeli political and military leaders say the tank-fire is exactly the opposite - a tough but clear message to Syria that Israel will not tolerate any more bullets and mortars landing in its territory.
This looks to be the first use of SAMs by rebels against the Syrian armed forces. From what I have seen this is claimed to be in western Aleppo province, probably near the base that is under siege by rebels right now.
Lets hope Assad wins that civil war because half the rebels seem to be waving Jihad / Sharia flags. Rather have a reliable dictator in power then yet another Islamic Apartheid state which sole goal is to destroy infidels.
Syrian terrorists shooting at civilian cars on the Damascus highway road. They want to shut down the airport and damage the government's prestige and supply lines so they randomly attack all passing cars. Don't fall in to the lazy thinking that rebels = good, government = bad.
Possibly NSFW video. No blood or anything, Syrian rebels firing at cars.
There is no doubt the Syrian government is an awful regime, but this behavior, deliberately targeting civilians to shut down a road, definitely gives the rebels here the label terrorist. They cover their faces for good reason.
In other news, Russia is reducing its support of Assad. Turkish officials say Russians privately told them they understand Assad is going to go down. Publicly, Russia indicated they are not tied to Assad and said they are concerned about what comes after him.
The Syrian government is moving and mixing chemical weapons, mostly according to US officials. As they get more desperate they may use nerve gas in tank shells and artillery shells in a limited way, probably hoping the limited use does not trigger massive foreign intervention. United States remains vague about what it would do if Assad ordered the use of chemical weapons, but makes it clear something will be done.
In my own bit of commentary, I think some countries are finally waking up to the situation. Russia is softening on Assad and David Cameron said it would be possible to consider promising Assad his life in exchange for him leaving Syria.
One thing I don't think many people understand is how weak Assad is. Assad's palace is a prison. He knows he is in a prison. Anonymously as usual, a Russian official said Bashar al-Assad does not believe he can win, but he thinks he will die either way. If he stays, rebels will kill him when his army, militia and intelligence services finally crumble. If he tries to leave, his army, militia or intelligence services with kill him. They will not let Assad fly away and leave them to the wolves. If he is going to die either way, he says he may as well go down fighting.
I have always said it and Assad himself even said it. He is weak. The ruling class only accepted him because he was the only choice. Assad has emphasized his weakness to discourage foreign countries from meddling in Syria. Even if he goes, it is likely the security forces will simply morph in to an Alawite militia, even if only to protect themselves from retribution. Do you really think those 4th Division soldiers with "God Bless Syria Al-Assad" tattoos, calling themselves Shabiha, and promising on video to burn Syria to the ground and kill all Sunnis if Assad loses power will just go away? They are much to deep in this conflict to stop. You can't push Assad to do anything because he has so little power. Our governments did not listen to his warning... I am not sure they even understood. If they understood, it must have been an intense desire to hurt Iran that they allowed this to happen.
This is about Bashar's personal survival now, but it is more than that. He feels trapped; all he can do is lash out with everything. This makes the chemical weapons a legitimate worry. Normally, using chemical weapons is suicidal so nobody does it. If Bashar already accepts he will die, he may just order them to be used... but how will the rest of the ruling class take that? Bashar is probably more likely to be in favor of using them than the others are. Assad is sure to die in the event of a rebel victory, but some of the others might slip through the cracks.