Iraq & Syrian Civil Wars - Page 30
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Please guys, stay on topic. This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. | ||
JinDesu
United States3990 Posts
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Romantic
United States1844 Posts
On December 05 2012 00:52 JinDesu wrote: If so, he is the rest of the ruling class' scapegoat. I don't look at it quite like he is a scapegoat. Scapegoat kind of implies they think they can get away just by throwing Assad under the bus, but both them and myself do not think that will happen (that is why they haven't done it). Even if Assad was gone they feel like they might or probably won't get away. Assad is a unifying figure so they keep him around. His presence in the conflict gives the government a sort of legitimacy and continuity. If he was gone, what was formally the regime would fragment and wouldn't be so unified in their struggle against the rebels. They also want to hold out on directly implicating themselves by hoping, like you said, that they can throw him under the bus and pin the war on him as a last resort. I am struggling to understand and explain this. The best I can say is that they feel trapped, all of them. There is a strong set of conservative motions in a dictatorship. Assad won't let his underlings defect. The underlings won't let Assad leave them. Its like co-murderers each trying to keep each other from snitching to the police to try to avoid the death penalty for themselves. Some are true believers and will martyr themselves. Some of them see this already in terms of them vs Sunnis with their best chance of winning throwing support behind Assad. | ||
wtfSurprise
United States12 Posts
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/world/middleeast/syrian-government-beset-by-battles-and-diplomatic-setbacks.html?ref=syria&_r=0 Nytimes has been constantly tolling the death knell for Assad for over a year now, but it seems now that he only has a few months left at best, depending on how long the regime can withstand a losing struggle before imploding. | ||
dUTtrOACh
Canada2339 Posts
On December 05 2012 07:40 wtfSurprise wrote: Nytimes reporting that Assad is losing the support of Russia and also that Russians that met with him 2 weeks ago described "a man without hope of victory or escape". http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/world/middleeast/syrian-government-beset-by-battles-and-diplomatic-setbacks.html?ref=syria&_r=0 Nytimes has been constantly tolling the death knell for Assad for over a year now, but it seems now that he only has a few months left at best, depending on how long the regime can withstand a losing struggle before imploding. He should settle with exile and hand over control, for the sake of his party and the future of his people. Sadly, his cling to power will only cost more lives, and further divide his country into warring factions. | ||
Romantic
United States1844 Posts
On December 05 2012 07:45 dUTtrOACh wrote: He should settle with exile and hand over control, for the sake of his party and the future of his people. Sadly, his cling to power will only cost more lives, and further divide his country into warring factions. That is the problem; he probably cannot leave. | ||
wtfSurprise
United States12 Posts
On December 05 2012 07:45 dUTtrOACh wrote: He should settle with exile and hand over control, for the sake of his party and the future of his people. Sadly, his cling to power will only cost more lives, and further divide his country into warring factions. It is noted in the article that Assad feels he will be killed by his own regime if he attempts to leave. I do not think Assad has total control, he shares power with military leaders who want him to stay because he is the figurehead of the state. If he were to go it would have a large impact on the morale of the rank and file of the government/army. | ||
a176
Canada6688 Posts
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/05/15706380-syria-loads-chemical-weapons-into-bombs-military-awaits-assads-order?lite http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarin#Effects_and_treatment | ||
deichkind
Sweden347 Posts
more likely they are moving it to no let it get into the hands of the more extreme factions that war against him. those people would defiently use it though. | ||
a176
Canada6688 Posts
On December 06 2012 09:39 deichkind wrote: doubtful that he'll use gas, cant protect his own and civilians that support him from it. more likely they are moving it to no let it get into the hands of the more extreme factions that war against him. those people would defiently use it though. how so? why risk killing the people you are fighting for? | ||
xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
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Romantic
United States1844 Posts
Civil wars sort of involve using weapons "against your own people" by definition by all sides participating. On December 06 2012 09:49 xDaunt wrote: Once mixed, the gas only lasts for 60 days, at which point it has to be discarded. I don't really doubt that Assad is going to use it. Unitary or binary bombs? I would assume the bombs were binary, that is, the chemicals are stored separately within the bomb and mix upon the bomb being released. As far as I know all\nearly all sarin bombs are binary. Edit: there is no real reason to mix the two chemicals used for sarin before putting them in a bomb. It is really easy to store the separately within the bomb. Going to guess Syria keeps the bombs empty and they just now filled them up with the chemicals that are held separate in the bomb. | ||
xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On December 06 2012 09:50 Romantic wrote: I would guess Aleppo would be the primary target of gas attacks if you were going to employ them militarily. Just looks like brinkmanship though.... even if the situation in Aleppo is currently very bad for the government. Civil wars sort of involve using weapons "against your own people" by definition by all sides participating. Unitary or binary bombs? I would assume the bombs were binary, that is, the chemicals are stored separately within the bomb and mix upon the bomb being released. As far as I know all\nearly all sarin bombs are binary. My understanding is that they mixed the binaries over the weekend. | ||
heliusx
United States2306 Posts
But U.S. officials said this week that the government had ordered its Chemical Weapons Corps to "be prepared," which Washington interpreted as a directive to begin bringing together the components needed to weaponize Syria's chemical stockpiles. That process would involve mixing "precursor" chemicals for the deadly nerve gas sarin, which could be used in artillery shells, U.S. officials told NBC News, stressing that there was no evidence that process had as yet begun. The military has loaded the precursor chemicals for sarin, a deadly nerve gas, into aerial bombs that could be dropped onto the Syrian people from dozens of fighter-bombers, the officials said. As recently as Tuesday, officials had said there was as yet no evidence that the process of mixing the "precursor" chemicals had begun. But Wednesday, they said their worst fears had been confirmed: The nerve agents were locked and loaded inside the bombs. From the NBC news article. It was also said satellites observed the chemicals being moved to multiple sights around the country. Hopefully they aren't going to use that nasty stuff. What do you guys think our response would be? Clinton said it would "go over the redline" implying we would take action. | ||
Romantic
United States1844 Posts
Some rumours on Twitter that gas masks are being handed out to Syrian soldiers. Twitter rumors... take that for what it is worth. | ||
heliusx
United States2306 Posts
On December 06 2012 10:07 Romantic wrote: I think the article authors are confused. Well, it is true the chemicals would need to be mixed to make deadly sarin, but that would be done as the bombs were falling. The way they write it, it seems like it is something done prior to bombs falling. I Googled sarin artillery shells and I found some US-made shells http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M687 and they were also binary. Some rumours on Twitter that gas masks are being handed out to Syrian soldiers. Twitter rumors... take that for what it is worth. The shell contained two canisters separated by a rupture disk. The compartments were filled with two liquid precursor chemicals for sarin (GB2): methylphosphonyl difluoride (denominated DF) and a mixture of isopropyl alcohol and isopropyl amine (denominated OPA) is in a second canister. The isopropyl amine binds the hydrogen fluoride generated during the chemical reaction. When the shell was fired the force of the acceleration would cause the disk between them to breach and the spinning of the projectile facilitated mixing. The two precursor chemicals would react in flight to produce sarin and when the shell reached its target the sarin would be released. The shells were meant to be stored and transported with only the OPA compartment loaded; the fuse and the DF compartment would be inserted shortly before firing. Am I misunderstanding? I don't know anything about chem weapons besides what I read today. That might be what they mean when they say mix. | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On December 06 2012 09:59 heliusx wrote: From the NBC news article. It was also said satellites observed the chemicals being moved to multiple sights around the country. Hopefully they aren't going to use that nasty stuff. What do you guys think our response would be? Clinton said it would "go over the redline" implying we would take action. if they are actually dumb enough to release the gas then NATO will sweep the Syrian airforce out of the sky and then conduct targeted bombardment of anything more sophisticated than a technical. And that will be enough for the rebels, just like it was for them in Libya. The only white troops deployed will be the spotters and their special forces escorts. But I'd bet there will be a ton of pressure on Turkey -- screaming for intervention -- to put their money where their mouths are and deploy several divisions into Syria. Paid for by Qatar and Saudi, because Americans will need to make sure that the Islamists who seem to be growing stronger and stronger by the day dont get their hands on sophisticated weapons. | ||
a176
Canada6688 Posts
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Romantic
United States1844 Posts
On December 06 2012 10:14 heliusx wrote: Am I misunderstanding? I don't know anything about chem weapons besides what I read today. That might be what they mean when they say mix. They didn't store the artillery shells with both chemicals, guessing for safety reasons, but the chemicals in the artillery shells mix when it is fired. The next step for Syria to use the bombs would be moving them to an airbase with planes that can use them. | ||
m4inbrain
1505 Posts
I might be wrong though. | ||
Abraxas514
Canada475 Posts
http://rt.com/usa/news/us-eisenhower-syria-military-369/ The USS Eisenhower, an American aircraft carrier that holds eight fighter bomber squadrons and 8,000 men, arrived at the Syrian coast yesterday in the midst of a heavy storm, indicating US preparation for a potential ground intervention. While the Obama administration has not announced any sort of American-led military intervention in the war-torn country, the US is now ready to launch such action “within days” if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad decides to use chemical weapons against the opposition, the Times reports. Some have suggested that the Assad regime may use chemical weapons against the opposition fighters in the coming days or weeks. The arrival of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, one of the 11 US Navy aircraft carriers that has the capacity to hold thousands of men, is now stationed at the coast of Syria, DEBKAfile reports. The aircraft carrier joined the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, which holds about 2,500 Marines. “We have (US) special operations forces at the right posture, they don’t have to be sent,” an unnamed US official told The Australian, which suggested that US military troops are already near Syria and ready to intervene in the conflict, if necessary. If the US decides to intervene militarily in Syria, it now has at its disposal 10,000 fighting men, 17 warships, 70 fighter-bombers, 10 destroyers and frigates and a guided military cruises. Some of the vessels are also equipped with Aegis missile interceptors to shoot down any missiles Syria might have at hand, according to DEBKAfile. “The muscle is already there to be flexed,” a US official told the London Times about the US military’s presence outside of Syria. “It’s premature to say what could happen if a decision is made to intervene. That hasn’t taken shape, we’ve not reached that kind of decision. There are a lot of options, but it [military action] could be launched rapidly, within days.” The move comes after NATO made a significant strategic decision Tuesday to deploy Patriot Air and Missile Defense Systems in Turkey on the border of Syria where opposition groups have the stronghold. The defense would be able to protect Turkey from potential Syrian missiles that could contain chemical weapons, as well as intimidate Syrian Air Force pilots from bombing the northern Syria border towns, which the armed rebels control. Syria is thought to have about 700 missiles. “The protection from NATO will be three dimensional; one is the short-range Patriots, the second is the middle-range Terminal High Altitude Air Defense [THAD] system and the last is the AEGIS system, which counters missiles that can reach outside the atmosphere,” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said. DEBKAfile’s anonymous military sources claim the THAD and Aegis arrived at the Syrian coast aboard the USS Eisenhower. “The United States now stands ready for direct military intervention in the Syrian conflict when the weather permits,” the news source wrote. In general, the US playing peacekeepers is a bad thing, but in this scenario if those chemical weapons are deployed, I say the US should conquer the whole country, take oil as payment for the invasion, and help the population create a representative government that follows the beliefs of the people. | ||
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