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LazyMacro
976 Posts
It'd be one thing if a thousand years ago you said that Hitler would commit genocide and then die on a certain date if it came true, etc. Predictions are always written in cryptic language; and worse yet, many predictions by many famous "prophets" haven't come true nor did their predictions coincide with anything you could construe to be relevant. | ||
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Consolidate
United States829 Posts
North Korea is desperate; they have long been dependent on foreign aid. This attack is most likely a negotiation tactic in light of the fact that the US has refused to resume the six party talks and thus halting any possible new aid arrangements and sanction conditions. The people in charge of North Korea are not as crazy as people would like to think. Corrupt and incompetent sure, but not so delusional as to attack another sovereign nation without any reason. Rest assured, the major parties (US, China, Russia) will do everything to keep the situation from escalating, which is to say that they will do nothing; they have everything to lose and nothing to gain from a full-blown military conflict. North Korea lacks strategic resources and millions of potential refugees no one wants to deal with. While this current situation might not be the straw that breaks the camel's back, if the recent intelligence is correct in suggesting that North Korea is nearing legitimate nuclear capabilities, all parties involved will find themselves in a very uncomfortable situation. If such an event were to transpire during in the near future, South Korea and the US would be powerless to do anything about it. In short, all hope depends on China's eagerness to assuage a starving North Korea and skill at dissuading them from developing weapons-grade uranium enrichment. China needs to make North Korea choose between having them as an ally and having nuclear capabilities - and they need to force that choice upon them soon. | ||
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Tianx
United States1196 Posts
the US has refused to resume the six party talks North Korea was the one that discontinued the six-party talks, not everyone else. That doesn't change that what you posted seems very reasonable, though. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
I really hope a diplomatic resolution can be made | ||
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kazansky
Germany931 Posts
Hope this is just misinformation. Correction: Directly after the incident, Jindogae Code I was called which means callings reserves and soldiers for west coast and manning up barracks in that area, seems a reasonable response, not overreaction. In Addition, South Korean Army announced that the maneuvre was held about 20-30 kilometres south of Yeonpyeong, which makes at least 30 kilometres from North Korean border. | ||
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Consolidate
United States829 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:37 Tianx wrote: North Korea was the one that discontinued the six-party talks, not everyone else. That doesn't change that what you posted seems very reasonable, though. North Korea did choose to discontinue the six party talks last year, but China has recently been pushing to resume the negotiations. I was alluding to the recent statement made by the US envoy just yesterday. http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2010/11/22/us_envoy_says_six_party_nkorea_talks_wont_resume/ | ||
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Grettin
42417 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:39 kazansky wrote: Oh my... According to german media, South Korea is mobilizing troops and calling reserves to the barracks. Hope this is just misinformation. In Addition, South Korean Army announced that the maneuvre was held about 20-30 kilometres south of Yeonpyeong, which makes at least 30 kilometres from North Korean border. SK Military is on the highest alert because of the attack. Might be just that. Though: SEOUL, Nov. 23 (Yonhap) -- President Lee Myung-bak ordered his military Tuesday to strike North Korea's missile base around its coastline artillery positions if it shows signs of additional provocation, his spokeswoman said. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/11/23/0200000000AEN20101123013200315.HTML | ||
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Electric.Jesus
Germany755 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:39 GGTeMpLaR wrote: I just read this and this is pretty insane man I really hope a diplomatic resolution can be made From what I know and have read (news as well as books) the North Korean leadership is composed of very rational and intelligent people. That said, they will not risk war because they know it may threaten their welfare. Most liekly, as people have already speculated here, they pursue either an internal demonstration of strenght to fortify Kim Jong-Uns position and/or they want to force a better position for negoatiations in the reuptake of the six-party-negotiations. Also, what few people know is that the North-Korean regime highly relies on payments from the US (source: "The predicioneer's game" by economist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita). THat is another reason why they are NOT interested in letting this conflict escalate. | ||
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Autobeat
United States53 Posts
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Meiya
Australia1169 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:39 kazansky wrote: Oh my... According to german media, South Korea is mobilizing troops and calling reserves to the barracks. Hope this is just misinformation. In Addition, South Korean Army announced that the maneuvre was held about 20-30 kilometres south of Yeonpyeong, which makes at least 30 kilometres from North Korean border. Such mobilisation would simply be sensible on their parts. Without an idea of the scale of the mobilisation and actual troop movements you can't really draw any conclusions from that. | ||
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Serejai
6007 Posts
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/9218848.stm The timelime has been pretty well maintained thus far. | ||
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vyyye
Sweden3917 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:44 Electric.Jesus wrote: From what I know and have read (news as well as books) the North Korean leadership is composed of very rational and intelligent people. That said, they will not risk war because they know it may threaten their welfare. Most liekly, as people have already speculated here, they pursue either an internal demonstration of strenght to fortify Kim Jong-Uns position and/or they want to force a better position for negoatiations in the reuptake of the six-party-negotiations. Also, what few people know is that the North-Korean regime highly relies on payments from the US (source: "The predicioneer's game" by economist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita). THat is another reason why they are NOT interested in letting this conflict escalate. I would think South Korea has been giving them more money than America. I know they're giving a whole lot to NK and have been for a long time, that said I have no idea of how much America gives or doesn't give. Should be noted that they're relying on the guys they keep provoking though, saying they lack reason would be an understatement. | ||
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Consolidate
United States829 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:44 Electric.Jesus wrote: From what I know and have read (news as well as books) the North Korean leadership is composed of very rational and intelligent people. That said, they will not risk war because they know it may threaten their welfare. Most liekly, as people have already speculated here, they pursue either an internal demonstration of strenght to fortify Kim Jong-Uns position and/or they want to force a better position for negoatiations in the reuptake of the six-party-negotiations. Also, what few people know is that the North-Korean regime highly relies on payments from the US (source: "The predicioneer's game" by economist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita). THat is another reason why they are NOT interested in letting this conflict escalate. This is correct. What we are witnessing is most likely a calculated maneuver rather than an irrational act of aggression. | ||
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ComusLoM
Norway3547 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:43 Grettin wrote: Though: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/11/23/0200000000AEN20101123013200315.HTML I really hope this deters any further action from North Korea, surely they'll be less likely to want to escalate this while the South Korean military is on high alert. We can pretty much assume there will only be harsh talks from now on, rather than actual military action. | ||
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kazansky
Germany931 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:45 Jugglenaught wrote: Such mobilisation would simply be sensible on their parts. Without an idea of the scale of the mobilisation and actual troop movements you can't really draw any conclusions from that. yes, I already corrected my statement, was "just" manning up barracks on west coast which is the reasonable response, but could have been higher dimensioned. Was not clear in first case. | ||
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Consolidate
United States829 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:46 vyyye wrote: I would think South Korea has been giving them more money than America. I know they're giving a whole lot to NK and have been for a long time, that said I have no idea of how much America gives or doesn't give. Should be noted that they're relying on the guys they keep provoking though, saying they lack reason would be an understatement. That was true up until 2006 when South Korea discontinued their 'Sunshine Policy' and halted all humanitarian shipments in light of North Korea's missile tests. | ||
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GreEny K
Germany7312 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:47 ComusLoM wrote: I really hope this deters any further action from North Korea, surely they'll be less likely to want to escalate this while the South Korean military is on high alert. We can pretty much assume there will only be harsh talks from now on, rather than actual military action. I don't even see the point of all this anymore -_- all they do is little pot shots and then there is some tenstion and nothing comes of it... Either stop all together or do something. | ||
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unbal3
Korea (South)131 Posts
so refreshing to be reminded that there's a crazy military dictatorship going nuts at my doorstep. | ||
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vyyye
Sweden3917 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:51 Consolidate wrote: That was true up until 2006 when South Korea discontinued their 'Sunshine Policy' and halted all humanitarian shipments in light of North Korea's missile tests. False, they halted temporarily but due to the starvation in NK humanitarian efforts still supply NK with a lot, at the expense of South Korea. | ||
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nuunuu
Finland79 Posts
On November 23 2010 22:47 Consolidate wrote: This is correct. What we are witnessing is most likely a calculated maneuver rather than an irrational act of aggression. If this is really is a calculated maneuver and foreign nations will end up giving them more aid just to keep them happy, then I don't want to know where the cannons/missiles will be aimed the next time after aid runs out. Good luck, South Korea. | ||
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