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On July 09 2012 00:52 Kukaracha wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2012 00:00 WallieP wrote:On July 08 2012 23:42 Kukaracha wrote:On July 08 2012 23:20 Gaga wrote:On July 08 2012 22:59 Kukaracha wrote:On July 08 2012 20:12 WallieP wrote:On July 06 2012 00:48 Weinstein wrote:
I think Spain 2 based really hard, so no wonder they are all-in now. Although they are harassing the German economy quiet a bit Just found out what the harrassing wouldcost germany/netherlands if they keep doing it:... For the sentiment of unity in Europa, germany should give in 45% for solidarity and the Netherlands 15%. For the Netherlands this means we have to take a loss of 1620 billion euro which makes it 101.250 euro for each resident living here... well, i am not ok with giving in 3 year salaries to help out countrys that gone down cause of corruption and excessive outgoings I don't understand, how is the "sentiment of unity" quantified so precisely...? public and private (bank) dept of EU troubled countries i guess that can/will be handled soon by the ESM which ultimately germany, netherlanmds, austria and finnland will pay for (countries which will be bailed out wont have to pay for the bailout) it's madness and will lead to a default of the whole Euro Zone in my opinion. But this isn't the "sentiment of unity", is it? Unless I'm missing something. This study seems to follow one outcome and to use its consequences as an argument. But among all the possible scenarios, isn't it a bit far-fetched to draw conclusions already and use them as arguments? No, it isnt far-fetched, its the path that is beeing walked.. That's what everyone says about their own scenario. :p
A Eurozone wide straight default is a ridiculous idea, and people shouldn't be throwing that kind of rubbish around. I'm a Euro-sceptic but its much much more likely that the ECB will resort to large scale debt monetization so that they can directly buy back bonds from European governments. This would occur long before 'default.' Yes I realize this could be classed a stealth default, and the repercussions would be enormous (not sure how they'd get around democratic process, but I guess they continue to do so with the European Commission), but its still a much more likely scenario than a full default (in my opinion).
There are still a few fairly strong economies in the Eurozone. Its not going to collapse tomorrow. Germany has shown quite huge levels of dedication to the Euro experiment, and there's no signs they are giving up yet.
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On July 16 2012 02:51 Trowa127 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2012 00:52 Kukaracha wrote:On July 09 2012 00:00 WallieP wrote:On July 08 2012 23:42 Kukaracha wrote:On July 08 2012 23:20 Gaga wrote:On July 08 2012 22:59 Kukaracha wrote:On July 08 2012 20:12 WallieP wrote:On July 06 2012 00:48 Weinstein wrote:
I think Spain 2 based really hard, so no wonder they are all-in now. Although they are harassing the German economy quiet a bit Just found out what the harrassing wouldcost germany/netherlands if they keep doing it:... For the sentiment of unity in Europa, germany should give in 45% for solidarity and the Netherlands 15%. For the Netherlands this means we have to take a loss of 1620 billion euro which makes it 101.250 euro for each resident living here... well, i am not ok with giving in 3 year salaries to help out countrys that gone down cause of corruption and excessive outgoings I don't understand, how is the "sentiment of unity" quantified so precisely...? public and private (bank) dept of EU troubled countries i guess that can/will be handled soon by the ESM which ultimately germany, netherlanmds, austria and finnland will pay for (countries which will be bailed out wont have to pay for the bailout) it's madness and will lead to a default of the whole Euro Zone in my opinion. But this isn't the "sentiment of unity", is it? Unless I'm missing something. This study seems to follow one outcome and to use its consequences as an argument. But among all the possible scenarios, isn't it a bit far-fetched to draw conclusions already and use them as arguments? No, it isnt far-fetched, its the path that is beeing walked.. That's what everyone says about their own scenario. :p A Eurozone wide straight default is a ridiculous idea, and people shouldn't be throwing that kind of rubbish around. I'm a Euro-sceptic but its much much more likely that the ECB will resort to large scale debt monetization so that they can directly buy back bonds from European governments. This would occur long before 'default.' Yes I realize this could be classed a stealth default, and the repercussions would be enormous (not sure how they'd get around democratic process, but I guess they continue to do so with the European Commission), but its still a much more likely scenario than a full default (in my opinion). There are still a few fairly strong economies in the Eurozone. Its not going to collapse tomorrow. Germany has shown quite huge levels of dedication to the Euro experiment, and there's no signs they are giving up yet.
thats a big understatement ... and my guess is at the end of these repercussions (depression/hyperinfaltion) will lead to destruction of the Euro and with it the default of its countries.
How in detail it will unfold ofc cannot be predicted ... but if we don't face reality Europe and the world (the US are in not much better condition ... some say worse) will hit a Wall sooner or later.
Better to face a surely also painful rehab... instead of the same old all the time (the problem is systematic)
“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”
― Albert Einstein
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On July 16 2012 03:24 Gaga wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 02:51 Trowa127 wrote:On July 09 2012 00:52 Kukaracha wrote:On July 09 2012 00:00 WallieP wrote:On July 08 2012 23:42 Kukaracha wrote:On July 08 2012 23:20 Gaga wrote:On July 08 2012 22:59 Kukaracha wrote:On July 08 2012 20:12 WallieP wrote:On July 06 2012 00:48 Weinstein wrote:
I think Spain 2 based really hard, so no wonder they are all-in now. Although they are harassing the German economy quiet a bit Just found out what the harrassing wouldcost germany/netherlands if they keep doing it:... For the sentiment of unity in Europa, germany should give in 45% for solidarity and the Netherlands 15%. For the Netherlands this means we have to take a loss of 1620 billion euro which makes it 101.250 euro for each resident living here... well, i am not ok with giving in 3 year salaries to help out countrys that gone down cause of corruption and excessive outgoings I don't understand, how is the "sentiment of unity" quantified so precisely...? public and private (bank) dept of EU troubled countries i guess that can/will be handled soon by the ESM which ultimately germany, netherlanmds, austria and finnland will pay for (countries which will be bailed out wont have to pay for the bailout) it's madness and will lead to a default of the whole Euro Zone in my opinion. But this isn't the "sentiment of unity", is it? Unless I'm missing something. This study seems to follow one outcome and to use its consequences as an argument. But among all the possible scenarios, isn't it a bit far-fetched to draw conclusions already and use them as arguments? No, it isnt far-fetched, its the path that is beeing walked.. That's what everyone says about their own scenario. :p A Eurozone wide straight default is a ridiculous idea, and people shouldn't be throwing that kind of rubbish around. I'm a Euro-sceptic but its much much more likely that the ECB will resort to large scale debt monetization so that they can directly buy back bonds from European governments. This would occur long before 'default.' Yes I realize this could be classed a stealth default, and the repercussions would be enormous (not sure how they'd get around democratic process, but I guess they continue to do so with the European Commission), but its still a much more likely scenario than a full default (in my opinion). There are still a few fairly strong economies in the Eurozone. Its not going to collapse tomorrow. Germany has shown quite huge levels of dedication to the Euro experiment, and there's no signs they are giving up yet. thats a big understatement ... and my guess is at the end of these repercussions (depression/hyperinfaltion) will lead to destruction of the Euro and with it the default of its countries. How in detail it will unfold ofc cannot be predicted ... but if we don't face reality Europe and the world (the US are in not much better condition ... some say worse) will hit a Wall sooner or later. Better to face a surely also painful rehab... instead of the same old all the time (spend more ! /save more ! ... while the problem is systematic) “Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.” ― Albert Einstein
But that isn't what I was saying. I was saying that people should stop claiming Europe is going to default because European leaders wouldn't allow it. Debt monetization is much more likely, regardless of whether I think it's a good idea (I don't, in fact I think its borderline criminal but that's another matter). Remember that some economies can probably cut spending and survive a debt crisis - ECB bond buying would only have to occur in some of the Countries. If they have to start printing money to buy Germany's debt, then there would be much bigger problems in the World for us to worry about!
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You realize that germany will not be able to carry the debt of whole europe and when it will the "markets" will soon realize that this load might be a little bit to heavy ?
and even if ... do you think that anything will change anything of the fundamental problem of trade imbalances and dept when its just again easier to lend new money ? as if thats the problem ... high lending prices are a fucking symptom.
do you really think all their new EU treaties to make it better in the future mean anything when they where broken left and right since 2004 (the previous "stability pact", no bailout clause, etc)?
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On July 16 2012 04:27 Gaga wrote:
You realize that germany will not be able to carry the debt of whole europe and when it will the "markets" will soon realize that this load might be a little bit to heavy ?
and even if ... do you think that anything will change anything of the fundamental problem of trade imbalances and dept when its just again easier to lend new money ? as if thats the problem ... high lending prices are a fucking symptom.
do you really think all their new EU treaties to make it better in the future mean anything when they where broken left and right since 2004 (the previous "stability pact", no bailout clause, etc)?
I 100% agree with you. The outlook for the Eurozone is very bad, and that's an understatement. Most Eurozone economies (including Britain) have huge structural problems that need remedying before anyone can think about recovery. I think in the near future we are going to see large losses for sovereign bondholders in Europe (which is also what we need, in my opinion again!) but the debt monetization option is there. I don't think Germany will accept carrying the 'euro burden' alone, but again these scenarios are probably at least 6 months into the future, maybe more.
I've softened my tone since a few months ago because I never really thought about the potential for bond buying in Europe. If they are willing to devalue the currency, they can survive this. But I don't know how the hell they'd sell that to European Countries who use the Euro.
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Anyone else notice how Gold and Eur/Usd seem to be correlating? Gold's low that needs to be breached is 1540 for a breakdown of it's descending triangle pattern. Eur/Usd seems to be taking the same ups and downs for the most parts. I'm thinking gold will go down to 750$...
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On July 16 2012 04:51 Trowa127 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 04:27 Gaga wrote:
You realize that germany will not be able to carry the debt of whole europe and when it will the "markets" will soon realize that this load might be a little bit to heavy ?
and even if ... do you think that anything will change anything of the fundamental problem of trade imbalances and dept when its just again easier to lend new money ? as if thats the problem ... high lending prices are a fucking symptom.
do you really think all their new EU treaties to make it better in the future mean anything when they where broken left and right since 2004 (the previous "stability pact", no bailout clause, etc)?
I 100% agree with you. The outlook for the Eurozone is very bad, and that's an understatement. Most Eurozone economies (including Britain) have huge structural problems that need remedying before anyone can think about recovery. I think in the near future we are going to see large losses for sovereign bondholders in Europe (which is also what we need, in my opinion again!) but the debt monetization option is there. I don't think Germany will accept carrying the 'euro burden' alone, but again these scenarios are probably at least 6 months into the future, maybe more. I've softened my tone since a few months ago because I never really thought about the potential for bond buying in Europe. If they are willing to devalue the currency, they can survive this. But I don't know how the hell they'd sell that to European Countries who use the Euro.
I agree with you that they will do anything to keep the system going ... i have doupts that they have much tools left to do so ... time is running out if it's 6 month or 6 years, i don't know but the chance rises.
If you want to read a study about it what happens when they fail .. i just read a little bit of it today here : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trade-study-global-systemic-collapse
"We have outlined how the risk of a major shock arising from decades of credit expansion and imbalances is growing. We have also seen that we could expect a similar shock from the effects of peak oil on the economy. What unifies both is a catastrophic collapse arising from a loss of confidence in debt, and the solvency of banks and governments. What would be unique is the scale of the shock and its ability to strike at the heart of the world’s financial system. But the implications are not just within the financial and monetary system. They would immediately affect the trade in real goods and services. As our economies have become more complex, de-localised and high speed, the implications on supply-chains could be rapid and devastating."
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On July 16 2012 05:47 DigiGnar wrote:
Anyone else notice how Gold and Eur/Usd seem to be correlating? Gold's low that needs to be breached is 1540 for a breakdown of it's descending triangle pattern. Eur/Usd seems to be taking the same ups and downs for the most parts. I'm thinking gold will go down to 750$...
How do you propose the dollar value of gold could go so low when the Fed keeps devaluing the USD?
And Gaga - good article. They are right, the rebalancing of the World economy and the associated deleveraging is going to hurt like hell. We really have no idea what could happen in the real World.
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On July 17 2012 05:47 Trowa127 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 05:47 DigiGnar wrote:
Anyone else notice how Gold and Eur/Usd seem to be correlating? Gold's low that needs to be breached is 1540 for a breakdown of it's descending triangle pattern. Eur/Usd seems to be taking the same ups and downs for the most parts. I'm thinking gold will go down to 750$... How do you propose the dollar value of gold could go so low when the Fed keeps devaluing the USD? And Gaga - good article. They are right, the rebalancing of the World economy and the associated deleveraging is going to hurt like hell. We really have no idea what could happen in the real World.
If 85% of the world's trades are in U.S. Dollars, and the USD is extremely cheap, what's everyone going to be doing? Buying the dolloar, or selling it? Would you sell something that is extremely cheap?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html
See where the price dips down a little around July/August '08? I don't understand why anyone would buy gold when it's so expensive. You can also see where price is June '06. Notice how the high there matches with the low in '08.
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On July 17 2012 05:47 Trowa127 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 05:47 DigiGnar wrote:
Anyone else notice how Gold and Eur/Usd seem to be correlating? Gold's low that needs to be breached is 1540 for a breakdown of it's descending triangle pattern. Eur/Usd seems to be taking the same ups and downs for the most parts. I'm thinking gold will go down to 750$... How do you propose the dollar value of gold could go so low when the Fed keeps devaluing the USD? And Gaga - good article. They are right, the rebalancing of the World economy and the associated deleveraging is going to hurt like hell. We really have no idea what could happen in the real World.
Because gold is mostly a speculative metal? And no one asks for taxes in gold and as long as Blizzard takes USDs then it will continue to be just a speculative metal?
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On July 17 2012 15:10 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 05:47 Trowa127 wrote:On July 16 2012 05:47 DigiGnar wrote:
Anyone else notice how Gold and Eur/Usd seem to be correlating? Gold's low that needs to be breached is 1540 for a breakdown of it's descending triangle pattern. Eur/Usd seems to be taking the same ups and downs for the most parts. I'm thinking gold will go down to 750$... How do you propose the dollar value of gold could go so low when the Fed keeps devaluing the USD? And Gaga - good article. They are right, the rebalancing of the World economy and the associated deleveraging is going to hurt like hell. We really have no idea what could happen in the real World. Because gold is mostly a speculative metal? And no one asks for taxes in gold and as long as Blizzard takes USDs then it will continue to be just a speculative metal?
He is pointing towards the inflation of the dollar. If you get inflation, you will see an increase in the gold-value just to keep the price constant. Inflation is the primary reason for why some libertarians want gold as official currency or a currency pegged to gold.
More interesting: How does gold fare compared to platinum (market prize), wine (special), paintings (auktion-houses), corn (bonds) and stocks (stock exchange indexes)? Comparing to only a few currencies does not say so much as comparing to different kinds of investment. If you think that gold will plummet in value, you have to look at how people are moving investments around to recognice what it will take for gold to fall so low!
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On July 16 2012 04:51 Trowa127 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 04:27 Gaga wrote:
You realize that germany will not be able to carry the debt of whole europe and when it will the "markets" will soon realize that this load might be a little bit to heavy ?
and even if ... do you think that anything will change anything of the fundamental problem of trade imbalances and dept when its just again easier to lend new money ? as if thats the problem ... high lending prices are a fucking symptom.
do you really think all their new EU treaties to make it better in the future mean anything when they where broken left and right since 2004 (the previous "stability pact", no bailout clause, etc)?
I 100% agree with you. The outlook for the Eurozone is very bad, and that's an understatement. Most Eurozone economies (including Britain) have huge structural problems that need remedying before anyone can think about recovery. I think in the near future we are going to see large losses for sovereign bondholders in Europe (which is also what we need, in my opinion again!) but the debt monetization option is there. I don't think Germany will accept carrying the 'euro burden' alone, but again these scenarios are probably at least 6 months into the future, maybe more. I've softened my tone since a few months ago because I never really thought about the potential for bond buying in Europe. If they are willing to devalue the currency, they can survive this. But I don't know how the hell they'd sell that to European Countries who use the Euro.
Go take a look at how the EUR currency has performed over the last year.
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I'm curious how will the liborgate scandal affect this whole situation
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This post is so full of pro northern EU bullshit it's surprising. Like Germany has a higher rate of savings than other european countries... that Germany will "carry" the debt of the whole euro zone, or that Germany is doing "everything right", what the.
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As interesting as herozedge is, amongst the trading community a lot of that stuff is a total joke (especially when they did some stupid comparisons between repo's as a indicator of squeezed liquidity funding)
I wouldn't rely on it for information unless you actually understand it
A lot of noob traders follow it like the blog is the word of god though lol. Once you start learning more fundamentals and stuff starts to make sense it loses a lot of its panash
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Looks like the euro crisis will hit the next stage in the next couple of months. It is now very likely that Greece will exit the Euro, since they won't be able to meet the set deadlines and both the IMF and many European countries are not willing to accept delays from Greece. Also, Greece is asking for extra aid between 10 and 50 billion.
IMF has already stated that it wants to stop the aid of Greece. The EU is starting to view the exit of Greece as controllable, making the exit more likely.
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Aka the money send to greece since the start of this crisis is wasted and will not be returned.
Arnt we all glad we threw more money into the money hole...
Greece will leave. Italie will then go into big problems next followed by spain. HF spending the next months throwing more and more money away.
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Who did not saw this comming the nations in trouble have a notorious past with defaults, reckless spending and more. People retiring at 55 and half the nation of wellfare followed by crying the EU does not give enough free money to solve their mess.
Glad Im emigrating next year this entire continent has no future at all. Best of luck to the youngsters here who will have to fund a continent addicted to wellfare.
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Not an expert here, that's why I wonder if is there any way we can make it through this crisis or if we are stuck in the hole we digged.
Oh, and expect Spain needing a full economical rescue, we're know rescueing two of our "independent autonomies" (don't know how to say it in english, it's moreless like a state of the US) and at least two more will need it, that's 5000 million euros AT LEAST. Also, our debt is just too big (975000 million euros, our vicepresident said it), the unemployment is high (25% moreless), etc... Sorry, can't give sources now.
Edit:
http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/second-spanish-region-seeks-aid-from-madrid_224405.html
http://www.datosmacro.com/en/national-debt/spain
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics
The national debt's data is now outdated as far as I know. My explanation doesn't match with the sources because I don't have a perfect memory :D
Edit2:
http://www.cadenaser.com/espana/articulo/gobierno-murcia-niega-ahora-vaya-pedir-rescate/csrcsrpor/20120722csrcsrnac_11/Tes (in spanish)
Murcia won't be rescued for the moment, it was just a communication failure.
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EPT
