EPTThe European Debt Crisis and the Euro - Page 90
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Weinstein
Germany39 Posts
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Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
You can say so but i find this a claim wich is difficult to back up, if you look at what would be the results of domestic spending (the infrastructure +assest citizens have) then it looks like germany spends more then enough. They have a beautifull infrastructure, the houses citizens own are of good quality and the citizens drive on average the most expensive cars in europe. I see it different. The trade surplus is a result of the efficiency of the german economy. This efficiency allows for a surplus on the trade balance while at the same time still allows for more then sufficient domestic spending to have an excelent infrastructure and other assets. | ||
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Gaga
Germany433 Posts
On July 06 2012 00:34 farvacola wrote: Anecdotal experience with German spending habits aside, are there any credible sources that support your claim? I am merely curious, as a concrete number would do wonders to make Germany's true economic situation clear. You cannot think black and white like that. Everyone shares their part in this. Germany hystorically always liked to save much. Perhaps a currency union with greece wasnt such a good idea in the first place... ? http://topforeignstocks.com/2011/06/26/comparison-of-personal-saving-rate-in-germany-vs-other-oecd-countries/ "Germans’ deep-seated economic caution has roots in the ruinous wars and inflation of the last century. Many of today’s Germans are as frugal as ever, on average saving 11.5% of their incomes in 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That compares with a savings rate of 5.7% in the U.S. last year. In Ireland, one of the euro-zone countries that is getting a bailout, the average savings rate last year was 11.1%, near that of Germany—but the rate only rose after the shock of the global financial crisis, and follows years of much lower saving. Meanwhile, in Greece, residents on average spent 12% more than they earned in 2008, the latest year for which data is available from the OECD." | ||
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farvacola
United States18839 Posts
On July 06 2012 00:51 Gaga wrote: You cannot think black and white like that. Everyone shares their part in this. Germany hystorically always liked to save much. Perhaps a currency union with greece wasnt such a good idea in the first place... ? http://topforeignstocks.com/2011/06/26/comparison-of-personal-saving-rate-in-germany-vs-other-oecd-countries/ "Germans’ deep-seated economic caution has roots in the ruinous wars and inflation of the last century. Many of today’s Germans are as frugal as ever, on average saving 11.5% of their incomes in 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That compares with a savings rate of 5.7% in the U.S. last year. In Ireland, one of the euro-zone countries that is getting a bailout, the average savings rate last year was 11.1%, near that of Germany—but the rate only rose after the shock of the global financial crisis, and follows years of much lower saving. Meanwhile, in Greece, residents on average spent 12% more than they earned in 2008, the latest year for which data is available from the OECD." I'm not exactly sure how asking for actual information as opposed to anecdote is "black and white thinking", but more to the point, savings rates are only a piece of the picture. If Germany is typically cautious, then pointing at savings rates should only be the beginning of the process of understanding the situation. | ||
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fleeze
Germany895 Posts
On July 06 2012 00:51 Rassy wrote: But is that trade surplus a result of not enough domestic spending? You can say so but i find this a claim wich is difficult to back up, if you look at what would be the results of domestic spending (the infrastructure +assest citizens have) then it looks like germany spends more then enough. They have a beautifull infrastructure, the houses citiezens own are of good quality and the citizens drive on average the most expensive cars in europe. I see it different. The trade surplus is a result of the efficiency of the german economy. This efficiency allows for a surplus on the trade balance while at the same time still allows for more then sufficient domestic spending to have an excelent infrastructure and other assets. the trade surplus means that germany produces more than it consumes. so consumption (read wages) should be buffed or we will continue to accumulate debt in countries that can't pay it back. Also other European Countries will profit because they can export more into germany and buff their own economy. since we're the biggest market here, europe as a whole would profit if germany consumes more. | ||
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Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
Alot more has to change for that to happen. Germany produces efficiently,and this is the reason for the surplus You can only consume so much domestically and because germany produces so much, there are goods left over after domestic consumption and thoose goods are exported. Objectivly speaking it is unreasobale to say that germany does not spend enough. i am pretty sure they spend more euro domestically per captiva then manny if not all of the southern economys ... but will have to look this up for confirmation. If Germany is typically cautious, then pointing at savings rates should only be the beginning of the process of understanding the situation A high safings rate could be a cause of a weak economy, and lowering the safings rate could be a reasonable way to give the economy a boost. Germany has no weak economy however, it are the southern economys wich are weak, and lowering germanys safing rate wont help the southern economys at all. If germany would consume more, they would still not suddenly start buying goods from the southern economys Thinking they would is a mistake i think. They can spend more but they would spend them on the same goods and items they spend on now wich are items produced in germany or asia. | ||
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radiatoren
Denmark1907 Posts
On July 06 2012 01:00 fleeze wrote: the trade surplus means that germany produces more than it consumes. so consumption (read wages) should be buffed or we will continue to accumulate debt in countries that can't pay it back. Also other European Countries will profit because they can export more into germany and buff their own economy. since we're the biggest market here, europe as a whole would profit if germany consumes more. A little more specific: Trade surplus means more export than import and is not necessarily correlated with personal savings. If Germany increased the import from southern europe it might help the southern european countries. What is equally important though, is the trade with countries outside of EU. You can find the european data here: Eurostat Click through the database go to "national account" go to "Exports and imports by Member States of the EU/third countries" choose the top spreadsheet. In the spreadsheet choose "select data" and go to "indic_na", here you can select what you want to look at. Then select "unit" and you can find your favourite way to look at the numbers. If you are a hawk, you can calculate the non-eu trade balance for each quarter and for each country with available data. | ||
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JonnyBNoHo
United States6277 Posts
On July 06 2012 00:51 Rassy wrote: But is that trade surplus a result of not enough domestic spending? You can say so but i find this a claim wich is difficult to back up, if you look at what would be the results of domestic spending (the infrastructure +assest citizens have) then it looks like germany spends more then enough. They have a beautifull infrastructure, the houses citizens own are of good quality and the citizens drive on average the most expensive cars in europe. I see it different. The trade surplus is a result of the efficiency of the german economy. This efficiency allows for a surplus on the trade balance while at the same time still allows for more then sufficient domestic spending to have an excelent infrastructure and other assets. I agree with that. The problem is that w/o the Euro Germany's currency would be much stronger which would make it easier for weaker countries to compete. So with the Euro Germany gets to stay strong and keep investing to make itself stronger until its trading partners get so far behind that they stop buying and start defaulting. | ||
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Gaga
Germany433 Posts
On July 07 2012 05:34 JonnyBNoHo wrote: I agree with that. The problem is that w/o the Euro Germany's currency would be much stronger which would make it easier for weaker countries to compete. So with the Euro Germany gets to stay strong and keep investing to make itself stronger until its trading partners get so far behind that they stop buying and start defaulting. The currency union is the reason for such a trade imbalances to be able to remain for a long time. If the exchange rates would de determined on a free market, like they where before the euro, such things would not happen over longer periods of time. Another good exampleis China/USA where this also is happening because the renminbi is kept atrificially low by the chinese government. With the same result in trade imbalances ... the difference is that the US can print as much dollar as china wants to take so the US can't go bankrupt as long as there is trust in the dollar. you can read a detailed report here | ||
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WallieP
Netherlands425 Posts
On July 06 2012 00:48 Weinstein wrote: I think Spain 2 based really hard, so no wonder they are all-in now. Although they are harassing the German economy quiet a bit Just found out what the harrassing wouldcost germany/netherlands if they keep doing it:... For the sentiment of unity in Europa, germany should give in 45% for solidarity and the Netherlands 15%. For the Netherlands this means we have to take a loss of 1620 billion euro which makes it 101.250 euro for each resident living here... well, i am not ok with giving in 3 year salaries to help out countrys that gone down cause of corruption and excessive outgoings | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6257 Posts
On July 08 2012 20:12 WallieP wrote: Just found out what the harrassing wouldcost germany/netherlands if they keep doing it:... For the sentiment of unity in Europa, germany should give in 45% for solidarity and the Netherlands 15%. For the Netherlands this means we have to take a loss of 1620 billion euro which makes it 101.250 euro for each resident living here... well, i am not ok with giving in 3 year salaries to help out countrys that gone down cause of corruption and excessive outgoings Source? And is that money all public vulnerability or also private? | ||
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WallieP
Netherlands425 Posts
On July 08 2012 20:50 RvB wrote: Source? And is that money all public vulnerability or also private? Its on fd.nl (dutch financial paper) but you have to be member/login-ed to the site to read it.. + Show Spoiler + Since you are dutch you can also read a bit about it on this website: http://www.dagelijksestandaard.nl/2012/07/mark-rutte-de-man-van-16-triljoen, this website is a bit more for sensation i think compare to fd.nl | ||
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Kukaracha
France1954 Posts
On July 08 2012 20:12 WallieP wrote: Just found out what the harrassing wouldcost germany/netherlands if they keep doing it:... For the sentiment of unity in Europa, germany should give in 45% for solidarity and the Netherlands 15%. For the Netherlands this means we have to take a loss of 1620 billion euro which makes it 101.250 euro for each resident living here... well, i am not ok with giving in 3 year salaries to help out countrys that gone down cause of corruption and excessive outgoings I don't understand, how is the "sentiment of unity" quantified so precisely...? | ||
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Gaga
Germany433 Posts
On July 08 2012 22:59 Kukaracha wrote: I don't understand, how is the "sentiment of unity" quantified so precisely...? public and private (bank) dept of EU troubled countries i guess that can/will be handled soon by the ESM which ultimately germany, netherlanmds, austria and finnland will pay for (countries which will be bailed out wont have to pay for the bailout) it's madness and will lead to a default of the whole Euro Zone in my opinion. | ||
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Kukaracha
France1954 Posts
On July 08 2012 23:20 Gaga wrote: public and private (bank) dept of EU troubled countries i guess that can/will be handled soon by the ESM which ultimately germany, netherlanmds, austria and finnland will pay for (countries which will be bailed out wont have to pay for the bailout) it's madness and will lead to a default of the whole Euro Zone in my opinion. But this isn't the "sentiment of unity", is it? Unless I'm missing something. This study seems to follow one outcome and to use its consequences as an argument. But among all the possible scenarios, isn't it a bit far-fetched to draw conclusions already and use them as arguments? | ||
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WallieP
Netherlands425 Posts
On July 08 2012 23:42 Kukaracha wrote: But this isn't the "sentiment of unity", is it? Unless I'm missing something. This study seems to follow one outcome and to use its consequences as an argument. But among all the possible scenarios, isn't it a bit far-fetched to draw conclusions already and use them as arguments? No, it isnt far-fetched, its the path that is beeing walked.. | ||
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WallieP
Netherlands425 Posts
![[image loading]](http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Czp2KufUjdQ/TipjuxRklaI/AAAAAAAABkM/zJwgKiIXKi0/s1600/alle_oplossingen_eurocrisis_210711.jpg) hihi fun picture but so true: - all possible solutions to the eurocrisis - | ||
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Kukaracha
France1954 Posts
On July 09 2012 00:00 WallieP wrote: No, it isnt far-fetched, its the path that is beeing walked.. That's what everyone says about their own scenario. :p | ||
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WallieP
Netherlands425 Posts
On July 09 2012 00:52 Kukaracha wrote: That's what everyone says about their own scenario. :p You asked :p and well, the last few months and mainly the news since the last eu-top shows that is really is the path being walked right? Really wish it wasnt, but they are... | ||
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WallieP
Netherlands425 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.nationalehulpgids.nl/nieuws/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/iStock_000009230241XSmall.jpg) | ||
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