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On May 19 2012 06:50 Rassy wrote:Euro has to go 1.20 and eventually i think we will see parity again. Its an economic battle between the usa and germany. Usa is a complete mess and can only survive by printing monney. They can do this for a verry long time (because oil is in dollars and their economy is verry productive) but at one point they will run into trouble (inflation) because the dollar eventually will strongly devaluate. The euro is a strong competitor to the dollar, as long as europe keeps the euro strong and the monney suply tight ,the usa is limited in its possibilitys to print extra dollars, because the dollar would become to weak against the euro. What the usa wants is us in europe to start printing euros, so that they can keep printing dollars without running into huge trouble. Usa is trying everything to make the crisis in europe worse, so that we at one point have no other way out then to start printing monney. This is whats going on behind the scenes i think.(simplified it a bit  ) I hope germany wins, though atm it looks like the usa and its southern european alies will win , expect europe to start printing monney verry soon (qe, ltro and what not) http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4023794/Britains-borders-close-if-euro-goes.htmlLol the sun. Europes banks cant run out of monney, one small country can be allowed to fail but not the whole zone. The whole population would revolt when they are, when it comes this far germany will surrender and ecb will simply print euros, or we will get a revolution. Have the feeling the bottom is near, the famous hoax intervieuw with the london trader talking about the eurozone beeing toast and billions of people loosing their safings came out the day wich was the bottom 2011 This is the same exageration and fearmongering, maybe 1-5 more bad days but thats it.
Um, lol? The Fed is essentially following the dominating theory on monetary policy, low interest rates to more or less stimulate the economy. It has done alright, inflation is still low, but now the U.S. government is in the way of the rest of the recovery.
The ECB, on the other hand, still isn't convinced the EU is in such a bad shape that they have to drop interest rates to 0%. They're gambling that the Euro bank runs won't happen.
This has nothing to do with deliberately manipulating money supply to be a reserve currency, since cratering the entire economy by not using every tool to avoid disaster won't help. It would be the equivalent of sacrificing all your pawns, rooks, and bishops on a chess board to take out just their queen.
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I just came back from Greece so I wanted to make a few points from a Swedes perspective.
The situation in Greece is really harsh for a lot of people and it will get far worse soon. The price on food is the same as in Sweden or higher and yet before the crisis Greeks made less money than Swedes did. Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start.
Basically people suffer a lot and we should remember this regardless if it's their fault or not.
I think it's entirely possible the country will devolve into a totalitarian state because that's what happens when it gets this bad. And it's entirely possible that the crisis drags down other countries with debt problems and they turn into totalitarian states as well if it goes really bad.
Now people are saying that is was impossible that this situation would led to Greece leaving the Euro. Clearly these things are hard to predict. Even now experts doesn't rule out a totalitarian government rising to power in Greece, but they say that a war in Europe is impossible.
I don't agree.
The number one priority in this crisis should be to make sure that France and Germany agrees, regardless on what the hell they are agreeing on. Because as long as they are together there will be no war and no violence within Europe but if they start squabbling all kinds of minor powers might take the opportunity to start shit and we do not know where that ends up.
If you think war in Europe is impossible you should read up on your history, the last 60 years or so are more or less unique and it's all thanks to EU. It's impossible to determine what is going to happen in terms of major economic turmoil and I think we should be better safe than sorry because after the great depression in the 30's we had a major world war and as bad as a "lost generation" of kids are because of economic problems a lost generation of dead kids are far worse.
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On May 21 2012 22:43 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
I just came back from Greece so I wanted to make a few points from a Swedes perspective.
The situation in Greece is really harsh for a lot of people and it will get far worse soon. The price on food is the same as in Sweden or higher and yet before the crisis Greeks made less money than Swedes did. Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start.
Basically people suffer a lot and we should remember this regardless if it's their fault or not.
I think it's entirely possible the country will devolve into a totalitarian state because that's what happens when it gets this bad. And it's entirely possible that the crisis drags down other countries with debt problems and they turn into totalitarian states as well if it goes really bad.
Now people are saying that is was impossible that this situation would led to Greece leaving the Euro. Clearly these things are hard to predict. Even now experts doesn't rule out a totalitarian government rising to power in Greece, but they say that a war in Europe is impossible.
I don't agree.
The number one priority in this crisis should be to make sure that France and Germany agrees, regardless on what the hell they are agreeing on. Because as long as they are together there will be no war and no violence within Europe but if they start squabbling all kinds of minor powers might take the opportunity to start shit and we do not know where that ends up.
If you think war in Europe is impossible you should read up on your history, the last 60 years or so are more or less unique and it's all thanks to EU. It's impossible to determine what is going to happen in terms of major economic turmoil and I think we should be better safe than sorry because after the great depression in the 30's we had a major world war and as bad as a "lost generation" of kids are because of economic problems a lost generation of dead kids are far worse.
Thinking that the economic turmoil of Europe today might lead to a major war in a not-too-distant future is just stupid. Using the 30's as an example of what might happen today won't work because the context is entirely different. The experiences after WW2 and sixty years of integration has altered the circumstances radically.
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On May 21 2012 22:43 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
I just came back from Greece so I wanted to make a few points from a Swedes perspective.
The situation in Greece is really harsh for a lot of people and it will get far worse soon. The price on food is the same as in Sweden or higher and yet before the crisis Greeks made less money than Swedes did. Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start.
Basically people suffer a lot and we should remember this regardless if it's their fault or not.
I think it's entirely possible the country will devolve into a totalitarian state because that's what happens when it gets this bad. And it's entirely possible that the crisis drags down other countries with debt problems and they turn into totalitarian states as well if it goes really bad.
Now people are saying that is was impossible that this situation would led to Greece leaving the Euro. Clearly these things are hard to predict. Even now experts doesn't rule out a totalitarian government rising to power in Greece, but they say that a war in Europe is impossible.
I don't agree.
The number one priority in this crisis should be to make sure that France and Germany agrees, regardless on what the hell they are agreeing on. Because as long as they are together there will be no war and no violence within Europe but if they start squabbling all kinds of minor powers might take the opportunity to start shit and we do not know where that ends up.
If you think war in Europe is impossible you should read up on your history, the last 60 years or so are more or less unique and it's all thanks to EU. It's impossible to determine what is going to happen in terms of major economic turmoil and I think we should be better safe than sorry because after the great depression in the 30's we had a major world war and as bad as a "lost generation" of kids are because of economic problems a lost generation of dead kids are far worse.
As a Greek (and English) I find this hilarious. War? What war? A war against the banks and E.U. oppression? Maybe. But this is already happening and E.U. countries are already changing their views.
You really think Greece might desolve to war? No chance.
also: "Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start."
This has been happening since basically 2008 in Greece.
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On May 21 2012 23:01 sdrawkcab_ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 22:43 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
I just came back from Greece so I wanted to make a few points from a Swedes perspective.
The situation in Greece is really harsh for a lot of people and it will get far worse soon. The price on food is the same as in Sweden or higher and yet before the crisis Greeks made less money than Swedes did. Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start.
Basically people suffer a lot and we should remember this regardless if it's their fault or not.
I think it's entirely possible the country will devolve into a totalitarian state because that's what happens when it gets this bad. And it's entirely possible that the crisis drags down other countries with debt problems and they turn into totalitarian states as well if it goes really bad.
Now people are saying that is was impossible that this situation would led to Greece leaving the Euro. Clearly these things are hard to predict. Even now experts doesn't rule out a totalitarian government rising to power in Greece, but they say that a war in Europe is impossible.
I don't agree.
The number one priority in this crisis should be to make sure that France and Germany agrees, regardless on what the hell they are agreeing on. Because as long as they are together there will be no war and no violence within Europe but if they start squabbling all kinds of minor powers might take the opportunity to start shit and we do not know where that ends up.
If you think war in Europe is impossible you should read up on your history, the last 60 years or so are more or less unique and it's all thanks to EU. It's impossible to determine what is going to happen in terms of major economic turmoil and I think we should be better safe than sorry because after the great depression in the 30's we had a major world war and as bad as a "lost generation" of kids are because of economic problems a lost generation of dead kids are far worse.
Thinking that the economic turmoil of Europe today might lead to a major war in a not-too-distant future is just stupid. Using the 30's as an example of what might happen today won't work because the context is entirely different. The experiences after WW2 and sixty years of integration has altered the circumstances radically.
Not a major war perhaps but I could see minor ones happening which could potentially shatter the EU and THAT could lead to a major war eventually.
For example Hungary is led by a rather extreme nationalist government today and they have been handing out passports to Hungarians living in Romania and there are a lot of areas with predominantly Hungarian population that belonged to them not to long ago.
Say Greece goes south and goes totalitarian state. That is not far fetched, already we see the rise of extreme communist/nationalist parties and the economy is about to go south.
Say the PIIGS countries follow as people are afraid of and they are also thrown into political turmoil. France and Germany can't agree on what to do with this (primarily because French economy is going down the drain as well) and the union starts cracking in it seems.
Now Hungary decides to deport 300.000 gypsies to Romania accusing tasking them to keep them inside their borders and after this there are repercussions towards the Hungarian minority... and it's on.
I'm not saying there will be a war in Europe, far from it. I think it's highly unlikely. I'm just saying that as long as France and Germany agrees it's 100 % guaranteed that things keep quiet. If they don't then England will back the underdog as usual and there are still nationalistic tensions in a lot of Euro countries that we tend to forget. That's why it's much better if the big dogs stick together.
Also after WW1 everyone said it was to horrible and it was the end of all wars and look at how that turned out.
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On May 21 2012 23:09 Psychobabas wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 22:43 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
I just came back from Greece so I wanted to make a few points from a Swedes perspective.
The situation in Greece is really harsh for a lot of people and it will get far worse soon. The price on food is the same as in Sweden or higher and yet before the crisis Greeks made less money than Swedes did. Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start.
Basically people suffer a lot and we should remember this regardless if it's their fault or not.
I think it's entirely possible the country will devolve into a totalitarian state because that's what happens when it gets this bad. And it's entirely possible that the crisis drags down other countries with debt problems and they turn into totalitarian states as well if it goes really bad.
Now people are saying that is was impossible that this situation would led to Greece leaving the Euro. Clearly these things are hard to predict. Even now experts doesn't rule out a totalitarian government rising to power in Greece, but they say that a war in Europe is impossible.
I don't agree.
The number one priority in this crisis should be to make sure that France and Germany agrees, regardless on what the hell they are agreeing on. Because as long as they are together there will be no war and no violence within Europe but if they start squabbling all kinds of minor powers might take the opportunity to start shit and we do not know where that ends up.
If you think war in Europe is impossible you should read up on your history, the last 60 years or so are more or less unique and it's all thanks to EU. It's impossible to determine what is going to happen in terms of major economic turmoil and I think we should be better safe than sorry because after the great depression in the 30's we had a major world war and as bad as a "lost generation" of kids are because of economic problems a lost generation of dead kids are far worse. As a Greek (and English) I find this hilarious. War? What war? A war against the banks and E.U. oppression? Maybe. But this is already happening and E.U. countries are already changing their views. You really think Greece might desolve to war? No chance. also: "Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start." This has been happening since basically 2008 in Greece.
I'm not worried about Greece declaring war on anyone but you don't think there is a possibility of nationalists and communists being in streetfigths half a year from now?
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On May 21 2012 05:00 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 06:50 Rassy wrote:Euro has to go 1.20 and eventually i think we will see parity again. Its an economic battle between the usa and germany. Usa is a complete mess and can only survive by printing monney. They can do this for a verry long time (because oil is in dollars and their economy is verry productive) but at one point they will run into trouble (inflation) because the dollar eventually will strongly devaluate. The euro is a strong competitor to the dollar, as long as europe keeps the euro strong and the monney suply tight ,the usa is limited in its possibilitys to print extra dollars, because the dollar would become to weak against the euro. What the usa wants is us in europe to start printing euros, so that they can keep printing dollars without running into huge trouble. Usa is trying everything to make the crisis in europe worse, so that we at one point have no other way out then to start printing monney. This is whats going on behind the scenes i think.(simplified it a bit ) I hope germany wins, though atm it looks like the usa and its southern european alies will win , expect europe to start printing monney verry soon (qe, ltro and what not) http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4023794/Britains-borders-close-if-euro-goes.htmlLol the sun. Europes banks cant run out of monney, one small country can be allowed to fail but not the whole zone. The whole population would revolt when they are, when it comes this far germany will surrender and ecb will simply print euros, or we will get a revolution. Have the feeling the bottom is near, the famous hoax intervieuw with the london trader talking about the eurozone beeing toast and billions of people loosing their safings came out the day wich was the bottom 2011 This is the same exageration and fearmongering, maybe 1-5 more bad days but thats it. Um, lol? The Fed is essentially following the dominating theory on monetary policy, low interest rates to more or less stimulate the economy. It has done alright, inflation is still low, but now the U.S. government is in the way of the rest of the recovery. The ECB, on the other hand, still isn't convinced the EU is in such a bad shape that they have to drop interest rates to 0%. They're gambling that the Euro bank runs won't happen. This has nothing to do with deliberately manipulating money supply to be a reserve currency, since cratering the entire economy by not using every tool to avoid disaster won't help. It would be the equivalent of sacrificing all your pawns, rooks, and bishops on a chess board to take out just their queen.
funny because the reverse is true. In an economy with little savings and a lot of consumption(aka usa and a lot of europe), low interest rates are the worst thing you can have. it is the #1 problem with the economy. it creates massive structural imbalances - depriving the economy of real savings that are desperately needed while at the same time signalling a necessity in high order investments that cannot be funded. it is the essence of monetary scizophrenia, and all the central banks in the world are doing it.
and its funyn because despite all the cries of market created recessions, the opposite is true. Interest rate manipulation is completely and utterly central control. the market wants the interest rate to go up, but central banks wont let it.
Of course, the main stream is ignorant of this as they have no knowledge of capital theory, a branch of economics completely ignored since Mises modernised it in early 1900s.
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On March 01 2010 15:29 LunarDestiny wrote:
The Euro currency makes buying and selling very easy in Europe be it causes European Countries not being able to use monetary policy effectively to fight against their different economy.
For example, if a country (say Spain) wants to lower interest rate to simulate its economy, it will have to print out more euro.
BUT, the EU as a whole might not want to lower the value of the euro. So Spain is screwed.
This, countries cant introduce hyperinflation because since thy form part of the EU all of the euro will be huper inflatetd. The solution would be or theese countries to leave th eu, make their own money (like the uk thts why were not really in crisis) and then hyperinflate. Once the economy is helped with this readmit those countries back into the EU.
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On May 21 2012 23:59 DeluXe1337 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2010 15:29 LunarDestiny wrote:
The Euro currency makes buying and selling very easy in Europe be it causes European Countries not being able to use monetary policy effectively to fight against their different economy.
For example, if a country (say Spain) wants to lower interest rate to simulate its economy, it will have to print out more euro.
BUT, the EU as a whole might not want to lower the value of the euro. So Spain is screwed. This, countries cant introduce hyperinflation because since thy form part of the EU all of the euro will be huper inflatetd. The solution would be or theese countries to leave th eu, make their own money (like the uk thts why were not really in crisis) and then hyperinflate. Once the economy is helped with this readmit those countries back into the EU.
what? inflation and hyperinflation are the epitome of a FAILED economy. inflation punishes savings. and savings are the only thing that create prosperity, as they are the essence of improvement of capital structure.
inflation as a policy is just a favour to all the special interests and governments that have borrowed themselves silly and giving them debt forgiveness. And this comes at the expense of everyone else that wants to make the economy better.
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Inflation is really just a way of lowering the standard of living in a "soft" way, although for Greece the necessary hyperinflation would still be pretty rough.
That is in essence why a country with massive inflation becomes more competitive, because the workers get paid less which lowers the price of goods for outside customers and people have less money to buy outside goods.
It's the same as just giving people a pay cut all across the board and taking their savings which is the approach to the problem if they decide to stay in the Euro.
End result is more or less the same thing.
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On May 21 2012 23:59 DeluXe1337 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2010 15:29 LunarDestiny wrote:
The Euro currency makes buying and selling very easy in Europe be it causes European Countries not being able to use monetary policy effectively to fight against their different economy.
For example, if a country (say Spain) wants to lower interest rate to simulate its economy, it will have to print out more euro.
BUT, the EU as a whole might not want to lower the value of the euro. So Spain is screwed. This, countries cant introduce hyperinflation because since thy form part of the EU all of the euro will be huper inflatetd. The solution would be or theese countries to leave th eu, make their own money (like the uk thts why were not really in crisis) and then hyperinflate. Once the economy is helped with this readmit those countries back into the EU.
UK really does have its own problems with a big deficit and decently big state debt and being highly dependant on the financial industry. The UK should start looking at its own problems instead of always saying that the rest of Europe is in bad shape.
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The EU should just give up on Greece... Tzipas is going to win the new election too and he's determined to send his country over the cliff, the EU needs to resign itself to the drachma coming back (and Greece getting way worse for a while before it has a chance to get better) and focus on trying to keep Italy and Spain from going down the same road Greece has... it's time to stop throwing good money after bad in Athens.
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People are completely focused on the debt instead of on the economy. I only hear the media/politicians saying, well, "how much can we cut back to keep debt under control", instead of, "what do we need to do to make our economy strong enough to meet our needs". So yes, in Europe, definitely cut back on the number of government employees, make the governments smaller because they are far too big in Europe. But no, don't start cutting in the people that you need, like hospitals, innovation and education...
Furthermore, I really don't like the EU in its current form. I am from the Netherlands, and the EU only costs us a truckload of money, we are getting pulled down by countries that I only visit to get a nice tan. I have no stronger relationship, no more loyalty towards Greece, Italy, or Spain, compared to, for example, the USA. In fact, I would rather give our money to the USA than to those other countries.
At least the USA came to our aid in WW2, and have never been cunts to the Netherlands...Compared to...let's see Italy...romans invading...Scandinavia...vikings invading....Spain...80 year war...English...anglo-dutch wars...French...Napoleon bastard...Belgium...nabbing some of our southern countries, but whatever..who misses them...And then the of course the German, let's not go into that...But let's just say your grandparents killed our grandparents....
So yes....Europe united and happy! Let's give our money away!
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On May 21 2012 23:01 sdrawkcab_ wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 22:43 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
I just came back from Greece so I wanted to make a few points from a Swedes perspective.
The situation in Greece is really harsh for a lot of people and it will get far worse soon. The price on food is the same as in Sweden or higher and yet before the crisis Greeks made less money than Swedes did. Now they've slashed wages with 700 euros per person/month and fired a whole bunch of people and it's only the start.
Basically people suffer a lot and we should remember this regardless if it's their fault or not.
I think it's entirely possible the country will devolve into a totalitarian state because that's what happens when it gets this bad. And it's entirely possible that the crisis drags down other countries with debt problems and they turn into totalitarian states as well if it goes really bad.
Now people are saying that is was impossible that this situation would led to Greece leaving the Euro. Clearly these things are hard to predict. Even now experts doesn't rule out a totalitarian government rising to power in Greece, but they say that a war in Europe is impossible.
I don't agree.
The number one priority in this crisis should be to make sure that France and Germany agrees, regardless on what the hell they are agreeing on. Because as long as they are together there will be no war and no violence within Europe but if they start squabbling all kinds of minor powers might take the opportunity to start shit and we do not know where that ends up.
If you think war in Europe is impossible you should read up on your history, the last 60 years or so are more or less unique and it's all thanks to EU. It's impossible to determine what is going to happen in terms of major economic turmoil and I think we should be better safe than sorry because after the great depression in the 30's we had a major world war and as bad as a "lost generation" of kids are because of economic problems a lost generation of dead kids are far worse.
Thinking that the economic turmoil of Europe today might lead to a major war in a not-too-distant future is just stupid. Using the 30's as an example of what might happen today won't work because the context is entirely different. The experiences after WW2 and sixty years of integration has altered the circumstances radically.
If you learn from history you will see we never learn from history, I hope it does get better soon for greece
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On May 21 2012 05:00 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 06:50 Rassy wrote:Euro has to go 1.20 and eventually i think we will see parity again. Its an economic battle between the usa and germany. Usa is a complete mess and can only survive by printing monney. They can do this for a verry long time (because oil is in dollars and their economy is verry productive) but at one point they will run into trouble (inflation) because the dollar eventually will strongly devaluate. The euro is a strong competitor to the dollar, as long as europe keeps the euro strong and the monney suply tight ,the usa is limited in its possibilitys to print extra dollars, because the dollar would become to weak against the euro. What the usa wants is us in europe to start printing euros, so that they can keep printing dollars without running into huge trouble. Usa is trying everything to make the crisis in europe worse, so that we at one point have no other way out then to start printing monney. This is whats going on behind the scenes i think.(simplified it a bit ) I hope germany wins, though atm it looks like the usa and its southern european alies will win , expect europe to start printing monney verry soon (qe, ltro and what not) http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4023794/Britains-borders-close-if-euro-goes.htmlLol the sun. Europes banks cant run out of monney, one small country can be allowed to fail but not the whole zone. The whole population would revolt when they are, when it comes this far germany will surrender and ecb will simply print euros, or we will get a revolution. Have the feeling the bottom is near, the famous hoax intervieuw with the london trader talking about the eurozone beeing toast and billions of people loosing their safings came out the day wich was the bottom 2011 This is the same exageration and fearmongering, maybe 1-5 more bad days but thats it. Um, lol? The Fed is essentially following the dominating theory on monetary policy, low interest rates to more or less stimulate the economy. It has done alright, inflation is still low, but now the U.S. government is in the way of the rest of the recovery. The ECB, on the other hand, still isn't convinced the EU is in such a bad shape that they have to drop interest rates to 0%. They're gambling that the Euro bank runs won't happen. This has nothing to do with deliberately manipulating money supply to be a reserve currency, since cratering the entire economy by not using every tool to avoid disaster won't help. It would be the equivalent of sacrificing all your pawns, rooks, and bishops on a chess board to take out just their queen.
Germany, Sweden and Finland have a generally sound economy. Nabours to Sweden, Norway, is having a huge boom in economy at the moment and people from all over europe are traveling there to find work. Germany is also doing pretty well economically and they also need a bigger workforce at the moment. Lowering the interest-rate in these countries would not be a good idea since it risks overheating the economies if we finally see an international growth.
The problem is internal imbalances in the Euro-zone. You cannot save much by manipulating the currency in such a market. The needed changes are political of nature and it has to be heck of a lot more than the financial austerity pact and a stimulus pact.
What is needed is an economic rebalancing effort and that is completely impossible politically at the moment. Greece seems to fall and I would be happy for the greek people getting what they need more than anything. The rest of Europe will still need some rebalancing, but getting Greece off the table would be helpful.
US FED has used almost all economic options for gaining momentum and it is mostly hoping for international or internal growth due to some political stimulation.
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On May 22 2012 00:46 radiatoren wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 05:00 aksfjh wrote:On May 19 2012 06:50 Rassy wrote:Euro has to go 1.20 and eventually i think we will see parity again. Its an economic battle between the usa and germany. Usa is a complete mess and can only survive by printing monney. They can do this for a verry long time (because oil is in dollars and their economy is verry productive) but at one point they will run into trouble (inflation) because the dollar eventually will strongly devaluate. The euro is a strong competitor to the dollar, as long as europe keeps the euro strong and the monney suply tight ,the usa is limited in its possibilitys to print extra dollars, because the dollar would become to weak against the euro. What the usa wants is us in europe to start printing euros, so that they can keep printing dollars without running into huge trouble. Usa is trying everything to make the crisis in europe worse, so that we at one point have no other way out then to start printing monney. This is whats going on behind the scenes i think.(simplified it a bit ) I hope germany wins, though atm it looks like the usa and its southern european alies will win , expect europe to start printing monney verry soon (qe, ltro and what not) http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4023794/Britains-borders-close-if-euro-goes.htmlLol the sun. Europes banks cant run out of monney, one small country can be allowed to fail but not the whole zone. The whole population would revolt when they are, when it comes this far germany will surrender and ecb will simply print euros, or we will get a revolution. Have the feeling the bottom is near, the famous hoax intervieuw with the london trader talking about the eurozone beeing toast and billions of people loosing their safings came out the day wich was the bottom 2011 This is the same exageration and fearmongering, maybe 1-5 more bad days but thats it. Um, lol? The Fed is essentially following the dominating theory on monetary policy, low interest rates to more or less stimulate the economy. It has done alright, inflation is still low, but now the U.S. government is in the way of the rest of the recovery. The ECB, on the other hand, still isn't convinced the EU is in such a bad shape that they have to drop interest rates to 0%. They're gambling that the Euro bank runs won't happen. This has nothing to do with deliberately manipulating money supply to be a reserve currency, since cratering the entire economy by not using every tool to avoid disaster won't help. It would be the equivalent of sacrificing all your pawns, rooks, and bishops on a chess board to take out just their queen. Germany, Sweden and Finland have a generally sound economy. Nabours to Sweden, Norway, is having a huge boom in economy at the moment and people from all over europe are traveling there to find work. Germany is also doing pretty well economically and they also need a bigger workforce at the moment. Lowering the interest-rate in these countries would not be a good idea since it risks overheating the economies if we finally see an international growth. The problem is internal imbalances in the Euro-zone. You cannot save much by manipulating the currency in such a market. The needed changes are political of nature and it has to be heck of a lot more than the financial austerity pact and a stimulus pact. What is needed is an economic rebalancing effort and that is completely impossible politically at the moment. Greece seems to fall and I would be happy for the greek people getting what they need more than anything. The rest of Europe will still need some rebalancing, but getting Greece off the table would be helpful. US FED has used almost all economic options for gaining momentum and it is mostly hoping for international or internal growth due to some political stimulation.
this is not true. there is nothing wrong with keeping interest rates very low, in a booming economy, for ever. If the savings rate is high, that is what the interest rate is NATURALLY. And there will be no bust. The bust only happens because interest rates are artificially low. This is an important distinction. remember, central banks are artificially meddling with what would be the NATURAL RATE of interest absent its open market transactions.
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On May 22 2012 00:07 storkfan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 23:59 DeluXe1337 wrote:On March 01 2010 15:29 LunarDestiny wrote:
The Euro currency makes buying and selling very easy in Europe be it causes European Countries not being able to use monetary policy effectively to fight against their different economy.
For example, if a country (say Spain) wants to lower interest rate to simulate its economy, it will have to print out more euro.
BUT, the EU as a whole might not want to lower the value of the euro. So Spain is screwed. This, countries cant introduce hyperinflation because since thy form part of the EU all of the euro will be huper inflatetd. The solution would be or theese countries to leave th eu, make their own money (like the uk thts why were not really in crisis) and then hyperinflate. Once the economy is helped with this readmit those countries back into the EU. what? inflation and hyperinflation are the epitome of a FAILED economy. inflation punishes savings. and savings are the only thing that create prosperity, as they are the essence of improvement of capital structure. inflation as a policy is just a favour to all the special interests and governments that have borrowed themselves silly and giving them debt forgiveness. And this comes at the expense of everyone else that wants to make the economy better.
So, if everybody just saves right now, that will put people back to work and make these economies grow? You do realize that's what consumers, businesses, and governments are doing right now, and look where it's getting everybody. Without sufficient demand, nobody is willing to invest in more (efficient) output.
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On May 22 2012 02:01 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2012 00:07 storkfan wrote:On May 21 2012 23:59 DeluXe1337 wrote:On March 01 2010 15:29 LunarDestiny wrote:
The Euro currency makes buying and selling very easy in Europe be it causes European Countries not being able to use monetary policy effectively to fight against their different economy.
For example, if a country (say Spain) wants to lower interest rate to simulate its economy, it will have to print out more euro.
BUT, the EU as a whole might not want to lower the value of the euro. So Spain is screwed. This, countries cant introduce hyperinflation because since thy form part of the EU all of the euro will be huper inflatetd. The solution would be or theese countries to leave th eu, make their own money (like the uk thts why were not really in crisis) and then hyperinflate. Once the economy is helped with this readmit those countries back into the EU. what? inflation and hyperinflation are the epitome of a FAILED economy. inflation punishes savings. and savings are the only thing that create prosperity, as they are the essence of improvement of capital structure. inflation as a policy is just a favour to all the special interests and governments that have borrowed themselves silly and giving them debt forgiveness. And this comes at the expense of everyone else that wants to make the economy better. So, if everybody just saves right now, that will put people back to work and make these economies grow? You do realize that's what consumers, businesses, and governments are doing right now, and look where it's getting everybody. Without sufficient demand, nobody is willing to invest in more (efficient) output.
supply creates its demand. Says Law is correct, Keynes never refuted it. No one Did.
and everyones saving, with 0% interest rates? like what? the central banks discouraging people from going about their prefered behavior, with the distortions of artificial monetary policy.
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On May 22 2012 02:24 storkfan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2012 02:01 aksfjh wrote:On May 22 2012 00:07 storkfan wrote:On May 21 2012 23:59 DeluXe1337 wrote:On March 01 2010 15:29 LunarDestiny wrote:
The Euro currency makes buying and selling very easy in Europe be it causes European Countries not being able to use monetary policy effectively to fight against their different economy.
For example, if a country (say Spain) wants to lower interest rate to simulate its economy, it will have to print out more euro.
BUT, the EU as a whole might not want to lower the value of the euro. So Spain is screwed. This, countries cant introduce hyperinflation because since thy form part of the EU all of the euro will be huper inflatetd. The solution would be or theese countries to leave th eu, make their own money (like the uk thts why were not really in crisis) and then hyperinflate. Once the economy is helped with this readmit those countries back into the EU. what? inflation and hyperinflation are the epitome of a FAILED economy. inflation punishes savings. and savings are the only thing that create prosperity, as they are the essence of improvement of capital structure. inflation as a policy is just a favour to all the special interests and governments that have borrowed themselves silly and giving them debt forgiveness. And this comes at the expense of everyone else that wants to make the economy better. So, if everybody just saves right now, that will put people back to work and make these economies grow? You do realize that's what consumers, businesses, and governments are doing right now, and look where it's getting everybody. Without sufficient demand, nobody is willing to invest in more (efficient) output. supply creates its demand. Says Law is correct, Keynes never refuted it. No one Did. and everyones saving, with 0% interest rates? like what? the central banks discouraging people from going about their prefered behavior, with the distortions of artificial monetary policy.
Oh, I must have missed that massive property selloff in Spain, Ireland, and the U.S. With such a large supply of houses and commercial property, that must be creating a huge boost in demand!
And yes, everybody IS saving even with 0% interest rates. With demand so low, there are fewer safe investments, so people and companies are just sitting on cash (in their banks).
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Savings is demand for goods in future. When you save you say to the economy - take the goods i produced now, and give me back more goods in the future. So that is what savings does: you forgo consuming goods in proportion to the money you save, and that money bids factors of production to produce future goods. And by doing so, it creates demand for the industries that produce future goods(producer industries, as opposed to consumer industries to which you bid resources to when you consume instead of save).
When the interest rates were artificially low in the 2000s economic boom, it signaled to produce future goods - like houses. Things that are owned only after a long period of time. Because low interest rates are exactly that, they are savings. When you save a lot, interest rates go down. The only problem was, people didnt save a lot, central banks only created the illusion that they did. This is the scizophrenia of monetary policy.
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EPT
