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This can end pretty bad for the Swiss....
let's see if the SNB will really buy unlimited Euro... and even if, what happens when the euro goes down... Swiss is fucked as well then.
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Now the US is fucked. World economy ain't going too well lately.....
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On September 06 2011 23:01 Gaga wrote: This can end pretty bad for the Swiss....
let's see if the SNB will really buy unlimited Euro... and even if, what happens when the euro goes down... Swiss is fucked as well then.
The thing is.
If the Euro would go down Switzerland would be fucked anyway... Whats the point of having a strong currency when all your main exporting markets are bankrupt? That way we will have Euros... So reastically the worst that can happen is that it gets as bad for us as it does for you... Which does not seem that big of a diffrence from before this intervention...
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The swiss currency was abused as sort of a safe haven, similar to the gold. The problem here is, that a real economy with real people is behind and suffering from this. Earlier Euro to franc was 1:1.60 (more or less), last month it went to almost parity. Switzerland exports are around 50% from gdp (slightly more i think) and a vast majority of these exports go to the EU. The currently overvalued Swiss Franc threatens the swiss export economy massively. Experts estimate the purchase power parity to be around 1:1.40, which means the inflational risks of keeping the euro not lower than at 1.20 francs isn't too high.
theoretically a national bank can buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency, no? (causing inflation at home, but since we have the opposite problem it doesn't matter too much for now...)
correct me if im wrong 
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On September 07 2011 00:03 Szordrin wrote:The swiss currency was abused as sort of a safe haven, similar to the gold. The problem here is, that a real economy with real people is behind and suffering from this. Earlier Euro to franc was 1:1.60 (more or less), last month it went to almost parity. Switzerland exports are around 50% from gdp (slightly more i think) and a vast majority of these exports go to the EU. The currently overvalued Swiss Franc threatens the swiss export economy massively. Experts estimate the purchase power parity to be around 1:1.40, which means the inflational risks of keeping the euro not lower than at 1.20 francs isn't too high. theoretically a national bank can buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency, no? (causing inflation at home, but since we have the opposite problem it doesn't matter too much for now...) correct me if im wrong 
It also makes travelling extremely cheap. Profit from it while you can. :D
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I'm glad I voted against Sweden adopting the Euro back in 2003. A project like this can only work if every state adopting the currency have a strong economy and strict rules apply that are inforced.
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On September 12 2011 16:00 lOvOlUNiMEDiA wrote:More troubling financial news in Europe. Intrade lists a 75% chance that at least one country currently using the Euro will drop it by Dec. 31, 2014. The economic situation in Europe seems like a downward spiral. Anyone got some optimistic articles? The financial market is a lot about self-fulfilling prophecies: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/a-self-fulfilling-euro-crisis-wonkish/
Unfortunately, people making opinions in the financial sector are mostly anglo-saxon Euro-sceptics (either british or american, for different reasons). There is nothing in the financial data of Spain or Italy, for example, that is especially worrisome compared to many other countries around the globe.
I saw an expert on Bloomberg a little while ago who said that there was no fundamental change in Italy's situation over the last decade and yet the markets started to speculate against Italy: Interest rates of 5% would be a heavy burden for almost any government in the world:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND
At the same time Germany can lend money for 1.71% over 10 years, which means it does basically cost nothing given that there will be normal inflation:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDBR10:IND
edit: oops link was wrong
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![[image loading]](http://a6.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/s720x720/293490_10150285495354542_675714541_7822993_1037952058_n.jpg)
A little tidbit for you guys
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Italy has been downgraded:
(Reuters) - Standard and Poor's cut its unsolicited ratings on Italy by one notch on Monday, warning of a deteriorating growth outlook and damaging political uncertainty, in a move that took markets by surprise and added to pressure on the debt-stressed euro zone.
S&P's downgraded its unsolicited ratings on Italy to A/A-1 from A+/A-1+ and kept its outlook on negative, sending the euro more than half a cent lower against the dollar.
The agency, which put Italy on review for downgrade in May, said that the outlook for growth was worsening and there was little sign that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's fractious center-right government could respond effectively.
Under mounting pressure to cut its 1.9 trillion euro debt pile, the government pushed a 59.8 billion euro austerity plan through parliament last week, pledging to balance the budget by 2013.
But there has been little confidence that the much-revised package of tax hikes and spending cuts, agreed only after repeated chopping and changing, will do anything to address Italy's underlying problem of persistent stagnant growth.
"We believe the reduced pace of Italy's economic activity to date will make the government's revised fiscal targets difficult to achieve," S&P's said in a statement.
"Furthermore, what we view as the Italian government's tentative policy response to recent market pressures suggests continuing future political uncertainty about the means of addressing Italy's economic challenges," it said.
Berlusconi's coalition has been plagued by infighting and policy disagreements and the prime minister himself has been battling a widening prostitution scandal which has distracted the government and badly damaged his personal credibility.
On Monday, Italian sources said the government was preparing to cut its growth forecast to 0.7 percent in 2011 from a previous forecast of 1.1 percent and cut the 2012 forecast to "1 percent or below."
Source
It's as if one fire is put that another bigger one erupts.
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On September 20 2011 14:15 lOvOlUNiMEDiA wrote:Article titled: "Short the euro, and make some money"Some people have mentioned that markets significantly operate like self-fulfilling prophecies. That seems true to me. But there's also reality and this article lays out the EURO-zone's troubles clearly.
Oh its definitely true.
Consider a booming economy, everything is going well. Then the president makes a speech, saying that there will be a recession soon. The savings rate goes up by 10%, as people stockpile money for the recession. Boom, recession.
As for Europe: there are countries that are insolvent, and countries that are illiquid. Some countries, like greece, can never repay all of their debt. They are insolvent. Greece will default, eventually. The greek debt burden in some 160% of gdp, their gdp is shrinking by 10% a year, and their deficit is still 10% of GDP. That means their debt burden will be some 190% next year. Their two year interest rate is 50%. They are broke.
Other countries, like Italy, are illiquid. The country runs an operating surplus, its deficit is entirely interest payments on debt. Hence, it needs loans to pay the interest on its debt. If it can get the loans, it can meet interest payments easily. If it cannot, it goes bankrupt. Here, the self-fulfilling prophecy comes in.
If enough lenders think that other lenders won't lend to italy, because Italy won't be able to repay its debt if enough lenders don't lend to italy, then italy won't get the loans it needs to pay the debt.
This is not an intractable problem: If the ECB were to say: "we will lend to Italy as much Euro's as they need, on the condition that the budget goes into surplus within 5 years", then Italy's crisis is over, as the markets will be happy to lend to italy again. Unfortunately, its against EU law.
Its a giant clusterfuck.
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It's an economic attack on the EURO what these rating agencies are doing. A self fulfilling prophecy..
nothing else.
The financial markets have a pretty acurate way to forsee the future ... they create it.
i think Paul Kurgman said that.
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It's amusing how abusable the economy of our world is.
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Part of it is self-fulfilling, no doubt. But it's more than just that. It's not like people suddenly woke up and decided Italy was in danger of defaulting. Given the inaction of the ECB and its catering to the core Eurozone countries, it makes sense that people have grown more pessimistic about Euro debt.
That's the key point from Krugman's piece. If these countries had currency independence, or an ECB willing to keep the Eurozone intact instead of just sucking up to Germany all the time, then none of this would be happening.
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On September 21 2011 05:52 domovoi wrote: Part of it is self-fulfilling, no doubt. But it's more than just that. It's not like people suddenly woke up and decided Italy was in danger of defaulting. Given the inaction of the ECB and its catering to the core Eurozone countries, it makes sense that people have grown more pessimistic about Euro debt.
That's the key point from Krugman's piece. If these countries had currency independence, or an ECB willing to keep the Eurozone intact instead of just sucking up to Germany all the time, then none of this would be happening.
How is the ECB "sucking it up" to Germany? The resignations of two Germans (Jürgen Stark&Axel Weber) who held top positions at the ECB suggest otherwise.
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On September 06 2011 19:33 lOvOlUNiMEDiA wrote:A United States of Europe?The financial problems in europe continue. Some global financial leaders are massaging the idea of a central financial authority with broader control that would allow quicker, more decisive action. This is supposed to restore market confidence. Interesting, and kind of alarming, stuff.
People might have missed this article.
This is one of the more exciting developments out of all this, and hopefully the aftermath even if there are some short term economic troubles. One step closer to a true political union...if it works, it might encourage others in Asia or Africa to do the same. From that point, maybe it would lead to a global government through the UN (without the security council)?? I hope
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Sanya12364 Posts
Does sucking up to Germany mean not forcing it to pay for every indiscretion of the other member states? What courtesy, not sticking the Germans with the bill!!!
But that editorial in the WSJ is very liberal with the choice of words. I can see the core argument being made but sometimes the paragraphs strike me as contradictory. It reminds me of the time Victor David Hansen was talking about how Europe didn't have one identity to look to and he used the word "soul" instead.
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