|
On March 21 2013 06:38 MyNameIsAlex wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:36 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:
people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work.
Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs No thats the problem you have no economic knowledge not even the basics. We dont want a strong currency and we dont want a weak currency and now the shock! We want a "stable" currency. Somewhat old but I couldnt find a newer study on germany on google in 2mins. http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/quarterly_review/1984v9/v9n1article2.pdf+ Show Spoiler +Conclusions
The results of this study suggest that exchange rate
variability reduces the volume of international trade in
manufactured goods. This conclusion differs from the
findings of previous empirical research,'2 which has often failed to uncover any significant impact of exchange risk
on trade. Admittedly, our conclusion is based on the
floating rate experience of only two countries, Germany
and the United States. Further empirical research on the
experience of a broader group of countries would be
necessary to reach more general conclusions on the
significance of exchange rate uncertainty.
Why do the findings in this study differ from those in
earlier studies? One obvious explanation would seem
to be our choice of an investigation period which covers
the more recent experience with floating exchange rates.
Including recent data is important for our results
because exchange rate volatility has shown no con-
sistent downward tendency over time and because it
provides a sufficiently long sample period with floating
exchange rates. This impression is confirmed by the
results obtained with data through 1978. Earlier
research has not investigated the period since 1977-78
and generally has mixed observations from the first few
years of floating with those from the fixed rate period
before 1973. Even the recent IMF study, mentioned
above, does not update previous econometric tests
dealing with effects of nominal exchange rate variability
on trade flows of individual countries; it does update,
however, one earlier investigation based on real
exchange rate variability. But we have argued that real
exchange rate variability is not an appropriate proxy for
exchange rate uncertainty.
Another reason for the differences in findings may be
that our measure of average quarterly variability, based
on a daily effective exchange rate index, provides a
better proxy for uncertainty than those in earlier studies
that were based on a very small number of observa-
tions, e.g., average quarterly variability calculated by
using three monthly observations. Finally, by explicitly
16 FRBNY Quarterly Review/Spring 1984
considering the impact of risk on volume through prices,
our study probably provides a better reading of the full
effect of exchange rate variability on trade.
We have argued that our estimates are likely to
underestimate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty
on trade for two reasons. First, measured exchange rate
variability may itself understate the extent of true
uncertainty and second, some indirect exchange risk
effects on trade cannot be separated from those of
exchange rate changes themselves. The indirect effects
are particularly important when long-range investment
decisions and choices of input sources or output mar-
kets must be made under the shadow of potentially
large future exchange rate changes. Our use of long
lags on the variability index may capture a part of these
long-term effects. But this procedure is not adequate for
fully isolating and measuring those effects. In any case,.
the main point of our theoreticaI arguments on uncer-
tainty is that the results in this study are best interpreted
as providing a lower bound on the effects of exchange
uncertainty on international trade.
One important policy implication of our study is that,
from the perspective of international trade, it is desirable
to reduce exchange rate uncertainty or variability.
Broadly speaking, variability may be reduced either by
changes in macroeconomic policies, by exchange
market intervention strategies, or by moving to a sub-
stantially different exchange rate system. A discussion
of such a complex and broad issue is obviously beyond
the scope of this study. But it should be noted that the
possible adverse effect of exchange rate uncertainty on
international trade is only one of several considerations
in the choice of an exchange rate system, and on other
grounds one may still favor the present exchange rate
arrangements. Im pretty sure you know the markets/economy have changed alot since 1984. Keep parotting what you see on TV. GJ.
You are hopeless. Like all of greece. Instead of building up an infrastructure and new industries that can compete internationally you want to live in your big dreamworld financed by industrialized countries. Greece lived like a 1st world country since joining the euro with massive low interests debts. You are complaining the markets see your industry is worthless and there is a low chance you will pay your loans back. Guess what they wont change their opinion. So either you change or you default. But Germany financing Greece for 50+ years is not an option. Greece needs to reform and if these reforms are too painful for you guess what. I dont care. You can pretend you are the only country in the world and everything will be fine if we pay all your debts and you can keep doing what you have done in the last 10 years. If we "solve" the euro crisis, there will be a new crisis in 5 years and germany will be as poor as you are. Wether or not globalization is a good or a bad thing we have to compete with the rest of the world.
Btw here is a newer one:
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9014/1/MPRA_paper_9014.pdf
+ Show Spoiler +Conclusion
In this paper we examine the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real
exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13
industrialised countries. Panel unit-root and cointegration tests are used to verify the
long-run relationship among the variables. The results provide evidence that exchange
rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries.
11 For example, before the financial crisis, average interest rate of the Philippines was 11.7% in 1996.
During the crisis period it hit the highest point of 85% in October, 1997. During that period Malaysia
experienced 52.2% fall in the stock market (Karunatilleka, 1999) 28
These results are robust across different estimation techniques and seemingly do not
depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty.
The problems of a possible simultaneity bias and heteroskedasticity are
addressed by employing GMM-IV estimation technique. The results of the GMM-IV
estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and
suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias.
The impact of the level of competitiveness among the sample countries is also
examined. The findings confirm that, for the sample countries, the increase in
competitiveness of a country relative to others has positive impact on exports, but the
magnitude is relatively inconsequential.
The empirical results derived in this paper are consistent with findings of
studies on both developed and less developed countries suggesting that exchange-rate
volatility in emerging East Asia economies has a significant negative impact on the
export flows to the world market. Compared with the results of Chit (2008) who
examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on the bilateral exports among the
main members of ACFTA countries, the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports
to the world market is about 30 percent larger than its impact on intra-regional
exports.
Thus, the results of our paper suggest that sample countries should focus on
stabilising their exchange rates vis-a-vis the main trading partners rather than solely
pursuing regional monetary and exchange rate policy cooperation, at least in the short
run.
|
On March 21 2013 06:48 ACrow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work. Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs On March 21 2013 06:20 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf+ Show Spoiler +
4. Conclusion14
Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it
joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between
Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s
aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every
specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports.
The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and
indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are
also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive
than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to
be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price
elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the
eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries
after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2
shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the
huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
Viewed from the perspective of capital flows, eurozone imbalances developed partly
because German banks became more willing to invest in peripheral eurozone countries after the
countries joined the common currency (see Gros and Mayer, 2012). However, following the
eurozone crisis, German banks and savers have become less willing to invest in Greece, Spain, 15
Portugal, Italy, and other deficit countries. Current account imbalances between European
countries may thus prove unsustainable.
In a flexible exchange rate system, part of the resulting adjustment would come through a
nominal appreciation of the German currency relative to the currencies of the deficit countries.
This is precluded as long as these countries share a common currency. Exchange rate adjustment
must come instead through a decline in wages and prices or an increase in productivity in the
peripheral countries vis-à-vis Germany. The evidence presented here indicates that these
adjustments will have to be large. Restoring equilibrium in the eurozone is thus likely to be a
long and painful process.
Sure a high exchange rate isn't perfect for us but keep in mind that the southern states are pushing for printing more money and devaluing their debts not Germany. Germany devalues the Euro with keeping th Eurozone crisis stale. The Cyprus crisis is stale for the last 2 months, and the proposed measures were a joke. I think everyone agrees on this. If not, then how about a global bank run since your deposits are in not secured anymore (hey it happened to Cyprus, and it can happen on (Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe France)? The domino will destroy most banks. Germany had a big say on them too. How they didn't devalue the Euro with this? The same with every Eurogroup and the European Crisis in general. On March 21 2013 03:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 03:02 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 00:14 electronic voyeur wrote:
the Euro is taking is devastating toll Germany is happy about that. Euro going down, USD/EUR going up, more exports for them. Also now all the south is afraid of having money in their banks, they will move them to germany/swiss banks since their considered as the safest banks in Europe (which isn't true according to many analysts). They win twice short term.In the long run this will bite their ass. And people like this guy are the reason why we need a northern union instead of a european union. People like you should really get some education before opening their big loud mouth and parotting the propaganda. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you see on Greek TV and be so quick to attack Germany? Just try to view this from a German's perspective (that's called empathy): Germany pays billions over billions of tax money - money that I worked very hard for - and as thanks Germany gets called Nazis and on every demonstration there are anti-German chants and/or signs. Now I get that the bailouts are used to bailout banks (some of them even German) and not help the small people while at the same time they are asking a lot of neoliberal crap. I'm against that. I know it doesn't really help. I didn't vote for that. Yet, I don't think it's fair to ask for so much and at the same time insult the hand that's feeding you. You should be angry at the incompetent politicians you voted into office the last decade, because those are the ones that failed. We all should be angry at a EU construct that is unable to deal with this, because it lacks the means to properly deal with it. And I don't get how anyone can be against letting stakeholders of Cyprus banks pay their share, as long as only the ones holding more than 100k € are affected (the decision to give a haircut to the ones below 100k was a decision by Cyprus government btw, the Troika just demanded a sum of 5.8bn from the haircut, not how it is distributed). Cyprus government tried to protect their foreign customers coming to Cyprus banks to enjoy low tax rates (which is quite parasitic in nature btw). Be angry at them, not at the Troika.
1st) You guys are feeding me? Really? No thanks, Im a phD engineer and I can feed myself.
2nd) Did I insult anyone? Did I call anyone a Nazi? Did I attack anyone? Im talkign with facts here, Germany wants a weak Euro as it helps with exports. Long term it bites them in the ass since Europe is bleeding and in the foreseeable future the market where Germany exports won't be able to "buy" anymore and German economy will take many steps back. It's only logical this will happen.
Jeesus you can't take criticism and think for a moment.
Also the tax on Cyprus banks can spark a bankrun in the south. Do you know the consequences of such a huge bankrun? Deposits should not in any way be touched. Not in Cyprus, not in anywhere in EU.
edit: ACrow its not stakeholders, its DEPOSITS.
|
On March 21 2013 06:48 ACrow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work. Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs On March 21 2013 06:20 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf+ Show Spoiler +
4. Conclusion14
Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it
joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between
Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s
aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every
specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports.
The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and
indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are
also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive
than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to
be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price
elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the
eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries
after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2
shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the
huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
Viewed from the perspective of capital flows, eurozone imbalances developed partly
because German banks became more willing to invest in peripheral eurozone countries after the
countries joined the common currency (see Gros and Mayer, 2012). However, following the
eurozone crisis, German banks and savers have become less willing to invest in Greece, Spain, 15
Portugal, Italy, and other deficit countries. Current account imbalances between European
countries may thus prove unsustainable.
In a flexible exchange rate system, part of the resulting adjustment would come through a
nominal appreciation of the German currency relative to the currencies of the deficit countries.
This is precluded as long as these countries share a common currency. Exchange rate adjustment
must come instead through a decline in wages and prices or an increase in productivity in the
peripheral countries vis-à-vis Germany. The evidence presented here indicates that these
adjustments will have to be large. Restoring equilibrium in the eurozone is thus likely to be a
long and painful process.
Sure a high exchange rate isn't perfect for us but keep in mind that the southern states are pushing for printing more money and devaluing their debts not Germany. Germany devalues the Euro with keeping th Eurozone crisis stale. The Cyprus crisis is stale for the last 2 months, and the proposed measures were a joke. I think everyone agrees on this. If not, then how about a global bank run since your deposits are in not secured anymore (hey it happened to Cyprus, and it can happen on (Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe France)? The domino will destroy most banks. Germany had a big say on them too. How they didn't devalue the Euro with this? The same with every Eurogroup and the European Crisis in general. On March 21 2013 03:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 03:02 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 00:14 electronic voyeur wrote:
the Euro is taking is devastating toll Germany is happy about that. Euro going down, USD/EUR going up, more exports for them. Also now all the south is afraid of having money in their banks, they will move them to germany/swiss banks since their considered as the safest banks in Europe (which isn't true according to many analysts). They win twice short term.In the long run this will bite their ass. And people like this guy are the reason why we need a northern union instead of a european union. People like you should really get some education before opening their big loud mouth and parotting the propaganda. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you see on Greek TV and be so quick to attack Germany? Just try to view this from a German's perspective (that's called empathy): Germany pays billions over billions of tax money - money that I worked very hard for - and as thanks Germany gets called Nazis and on every demonstration there are anti-German chants and/or signs. Now I get that the bailouts are used to bailout banks (some of them even German) and not help the small people while at the same time they are asking a lot of neoliberal crap. I'm against that. I know it doesn't really help. I didn't vote for that. Yet, I don't think it's fair to ask for so much and at the same time insult the hand that's feeding you. You should be angry at the incompetent politicians you voted into office the last decade, because those are the ones that failed. We all should be angry at a EU construct that is unable to deal with this, because it lacks the means to properly deal with it. And I don't get how anyone can be against letting stakeholders of Cyprus banks pay their share, as long as only the ones holding more than 100k € are affected (the decision to give a haircut to the ones below 100k was a decision by Cyprus government btw, the Troika just demanded a sum of 5.8bn from the haircut, not how it is distributed). Cyprus government tried to protect their foreign customers coming to Cyprus banks to enjoy low tax rates (which is quite parasitic in nature btw). Be angry at them, not at the Troika.
it's funny you tell him not to believe the GREEK media if you are talking GERMAN media after the mouth.
btw: it's not "stakeholders of Cyprus banks" its a random, you can even say RETARDED, tax on BANK DEPOSITS on a totally random day and time.
it's NOT a tax on the WEALTH it doesn't take into account property or stocks invested in the market. if you want to induce a wealth tax on a population you should at LEAST put some basic thinking into it.
edit: in short it is a LIQUIDITY tax (for a random timestamp) instead of a WEALTH tax.
btw: STAKEHOLDERS of the banks get bailed out
|
|
|
the idea is that the euro (vs the old DM) is already devalued as much as germany can handle, rest is politics.
|
wtf are you even talking about. sounds like you missed the point and jumped to a totally stupid conclussion.
NOBODY wants to devalue the euro even further NOW, the currency is volatile enough that you would be playing with fire even more.
the fact still remains that the euro is DEVALUED WHEN COMPARED TO A GERMAN DOMESTIC CURRENCY (which doesn't exist anymore obviously....).
edit: devaluation isn't even discussed. it's beyond my point of understanding why you would say devaluation is the opposite of austerity. the opposite of austerity are euro bonds (buying the bonds of southern countries via ECB instead of private banks) which COULD lead to devaluation (because of monetarism fear of inflation).
|
On March 21 2013 07:09 fleeze wrote:wtf are you even talking about. sounds like you missed the point and jumped to a totally stupid conclussion. NOBODY wants to devalue the euro even further NOW, the currency is volatile enough that you would be playing with fire even more. the fact still remains that the euro is DEVALUED WHEN COMPARED TO A GERMAN DOMESTIC CURRENCY (which doesn't exist anymore obviously....).
Of course it is. But you are suggesting we are actively keeping it down in our own interest which is not true.
|
On March 21 2013 06:49 Yuljan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:38 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 06:36 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:
people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work.
Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs No thats the problem you have no economic knowledge not even the basics. We dont want a strong currency and we dont want a weak currency and now the shock! We want a "stable" currency. Somewhat old but I couldnt find a newer study on germany on google in 2mins. http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/quarterly_review/1984v9/v9n1article2.pdf+ Show Spoiler +Conclusions
The results of this study suggest that exchange rate
variability reduces the volume of international trade in
manufactured goods. This conclusion differs from the
findings of previous empirical research,'2 which has often failed to uncover any significant impact of exchange risk
on trade. Admittedly, our conclusion is based on the
floating rate experience of only two countries, Germany
and the United States. Further empirical research on the
experience of a broader group of countries would be
necessary to reach more general conclusions on the
significance of exchange rate uncertainty.
Why do the findings in this study differ from those in
earlier studies? One obvious explanation would seem
to be our choice of an investigation period which covers
the more recent experience with floating exchange rates.
Including recent data is important for our results
because exchange rate volatility has shown no con-
sistent downward tendency over time and because it
provides a sufficiently long sample period with floating
exchange rates. This impression is confirmed by the
results obtained with data through 1978. Earlier
research has not investigated the period since 1977-78
and generally has mixed observations from the first few
years of floating with those from the fixed rate period
before 1973. Even the recent IMF study, mentioned
above, does not update previous econometric tests
dealing with effects of nominal exchange rate variability
on trade flows of individual countries; it does update,
however, one earlier investigation based on real
exchange rate variability. But we have argued that real
exchange rate variability is not an appropriate proxy for
exchange rate uncertainty.
Another reason for the differences in findings may be
that our measure of average quarterly variability, based
on a daily effective exchange rate index, provides a
better proxy for uncertainty than those in earlier studies
that were based on a very small number of observa-
tions, e.g., average quarterly variability calculated by
using three monthly observations. Finally, by explicitly
16 FRBNY Quarterly Review/Spring 1984
considering the impact of risk on volume through prices,
our study probably provides a better reading of the full
effect of exchange rate variability on trade.
We have argued that our estimates are likely to
underestimate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty
on trade for two reasons. First, measured exchange rate
variability may itself understate the extent of true
uncertainty and second, some indirect exchange risk
effects on trade cannot be separated from those of
exchange rate changes themselves. The indirect effects
are particularly important when long-range investment
decisions and choices of input sources or output mar-
kets must be made under the shadow of potentially
large future exchange rate changes. Our use of long
lags on the variability index may capture a part of these
long-term effects. But this procedure is not adequate for
fully isolating and measuring those effects. In any case,.
the main point of our theoreticaI arguments on uncer-
tainty is that the results in this study are best interpreted
as providing a lower bound on the effects of exchange
uncertainty on international trade.
One important policy implication of our study is that,
from the perspective of international trade, it is desirable
to reduce exchange rate uncertainty or variability.
Broadly speaking, variability may be reduced either by
changes in macroeconomic policies, by exchange
market intervention strategies, or by moving to a sub-
stantially different exchange rate system. A discussion
of such a complex and broad issue is obviously beyond
the scope of this study. But it should be noted that the
possible adverse effect of exchange rate uncertainty on
international trade is only one of several considerations
in the choice of an exchange rate system, and on other
grounds one may still favor the present exchange rate
arrangements. Im pretty sure you know the markets/economy have changed alot since 1984. Keep parotting what you see on TV. GJ. You are hopeless. Like all of greece. Instead of building up an infrastructure and new industries that can compete internationally you want to live in your big dreamworld financed by industrialized countries. Greece lived like a 1st world country since joining the euro with massive low interests debts. You are complaining the markets see your industry is worthless and there is a low chance you will pay your loans back. Guess what they wont change their opinion. So either you change or you default. But Germany financing Greece for 50+ years is not an option. Greece needs to reform and if these reforms are too painful for you guess what. I dont care. You can pretend you are the only country in the world and everything will be fine if we pay all your debts and you can keep doing what you have done in the last 10 years. If we "solve" the euro crisis, there will be a new crisis in 5 years and germany will be as poor as you are. Wether or not globalization is a good or a bad thing we have to compete with the rest of the world. Btw here is a newer one: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9014/1/MPRA_paper_9014.pdf+ Show Spoiler +Conclusion
In this paper we examine the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real
exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13
industrialised countries. Panel unit-root and cointegration tests are used to verify the
long-run relationship among the variables. The results provide evidence that exchange
rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries.
11 For example, before the financial crisis, average interest rate of the Philippines was 11.7% in 1996.
During the crisis period it hit the highest point of 85% in October, 1997. During that period Malaysia
experienced 52.2% fall in the stock market (Karunatilleka, 1999) 28
These results are robust across different estimation techniques and seemingly do not
depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty.
The problems of a possible simultaneity bias and heteroskedasticity are
addressed by employing GMM-IV estimation technique. The results of the GMM-IV
estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and
suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias.
The impact of the level of competitiveness among the sample countries is also
examined. The findings confirm that, for the sample countries, the increase in
competitiveness of a country relative to others has positive impact on exports, but the
magnitude is relatively inconsequential.
The empirical results derived in this paper are consistent with findings of
studies on both developed and less developed countries suggesting that exchange-rate
volatility in emerging East Asia economies has a significant negative impact on the
export flows to the world market. Compared with the results of Chit (2008) who
examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on the bilateral exports among the
main members of ACFTA countries, the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports
to the world market is about 30 percent larger than its impact on intra-regional
exports.
Thus, the results of our paper suggest that sample countries should focus on
stabilising their exchange rates vis-a-vis the main trading partners rather than solely
pursuing regional monetary and exchange rate policy cooperation, at least in the short
run.
Seriously? I am hopeless? Am I living in my dreamworld? No dude, watch around you re being a huge douche insulting me but its ok you're german and im greek... Fuck logic... Whats next, sieg heil, burn the greeks and ignore the facts? ...
Lol and you're accusing me of having no basic economic knowledge. You 're one funny troll.
|
On March 21 2013 07:13 Yuljan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 07:09 fleeze wrote:wtf are you even talking about. sounds like you missed the point and jumped to a totally stupid conclussion. NOBODY wants to devalue the euro even further NOW, the currency is volatile enough that you would be playing with fire even more. the fact still remains that the euro is DEVALUED WHEN COMPARED TO A GERMAN DOMESTIC CURRENCY (which doesn't exist anymore obviously....). Of course it is. But you are suggesting we are actively keeping it down in our own interest which is not true.
you're just talking bullshit, because you're missing basic economic knowledge.
we already have an undervalued currency. mission accomplished. how about keeping the status quo now?
On March 21 2013 07:17 MyNameIsAlex wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:49 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 06:38 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 06:36 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:
people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work.
Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs No thats the problem you have no economic knowledge not even the basics. We dont want a strong currency and we dont want a weak currency and now the shock! We want a "stable" currency. Somewhat old but I couldnt find a newer study on germany on google in 2mins. http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/quarterly_review/1984v9/v9n1article2.pdf+ Show Spoiler +Conclusions
The results of this study suggest that exchange rate
variability reduces the volume of international trade in
manufactured goods. This conclusion differs from the
findings of previous empirical research,'2 which has often failed to uncover any significant impact of exchange risk
on trade. Admittedly, our conclusion is based on the
floating rate experience of only two countries, Germany
and the United States. Further empirical research on the
experience of a broader group of countries would be
necessary to reach more general conclusions on the
significance of exchange rate uncertainty.
Why do the findings in this study differ from those in
earlier studies? One obvious explanation would seem
to be our choice of an investigation period which covers
the more recent experience with floating exchange rates.
Including recent data is important for our results
because exchange rate volatility has shown no con-
sistent downward tendency over time and because it
provides a sufficiently long sample period with floating
exchange rates. This impression is confirmed by the
results obtained with data through 1978. Earlier
research has not investigated the period since 1977-78
and generally has mixed observations from the first few
years of floating with those from the fixed rate period
before 1973. Even the recent IMF study, mentioned
above, does not update previous econometric tests
dealing with effects of nominal exchange rate variability
on trade flows of individual countries; it does update,
however, one earlier investigation based on real
exchange rate variability. But we have argued that real
exchange rate variability is not an appropriate proxy for
exchange rate uncertainty.
Another reason for the differences in findings may be
that our measure of average quarterly variability, based
on a daily effective exchange rate index, provides a
better proxy for uncertainty than those in earlier studies
that were based on a very small number of observa-
tions, e.g., average quarterly variability calculated by
using three monthly observations. Finally, by explicitly
16 FRBNY Quarterly Review/Spring 1984
considering the impact of risk on volume through prices,
our study probably provides a better reading of the full
effect of exchange rate variability on trade.
We have argued that our estimates are likely to
underestimate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty
on trade for two reasons. First, measured exchange rate
variability may itself understate the extent of true
uncertainty and second, some indirect exchange risk
effects on trade cannot be separated from those of
exchange rate changes themselves. The indirect effects
are particularly important when long-range investment
decisions and choices of input sources or output mar-
kets must be made under the shadow of potentially
large future exchange rate changes. Our use of long
lags on the variability index may capture a part of these
long-term effects. But this procedure is not adequate for
fully isolating and measuring those effects. In any case,.
the main point of our theoreticaI arguments on uncer-
tainty is that the results in this study are best interpreted
as providing a lower bound on the effects of exchange
uncertainty on international trade.
One important policy implication of our study is that,
from the perspective of international trade, it is desirable
to reduce exchange rate uncertainty or variability.
Broadly speaking, variability may be reduced either by
changes in macroeconomic policies, by exchange
market intervention strategies, or by moving to a sub-
stantially different exchange rate system. A discussion
of such a complex and broad issue is obviously beyond
the scope of this study. But it should be noted that the
possible adverse effect of exchange rate uncertainty on
international trade is only one of several considerations
in the choice of an exchange rate system, and on other
grounds one may still favor the present exchange rate
arrangements. Im pretty sure you know the markets/economy have changed alot since 1984. Keep parotting what you see on TV. GJ. You are hopeless. Like all of greece. Instead of building up an infrastructure and new industries that can compete internationally you want to live in your big dreamworld financed by industrialized countries. Greece lived like a 1st world country since joining the euro with massive low interests debts. You are complaining the markets see your industry is worthless and there is a low chance you will pay your loans back. Guess what they wont change their opinion. So either you change or you default. But Germany financing Greece for 50+ years is not an option. Greece needs to reform and if these reforms are too painful for you guess what. I dont care. You can pretend you are the only country in the world and everything will be fine if we pay all your debts and you can keep doing what you have done in the last 10 years. If we "solve" the euro crisis, there will be a new crisis in 5 years and germany will be as poor as you are. Wether or not globalization is a good or a bad thing we have to compete with the rest of the world. Btw here is a newer one: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9014/1/MPRA_paper_9014.pdf+ Show Spoiler +Conclusion
In this paper we examine the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real
exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13
industrialised countries. Panel unit-root and cointegration tests are used to verify the
long-run relationship among the variables. The results provide evidence that exchange
rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries.
11 For example, before the financial crisis, average interest rate of the Philippines was 11.7% in 1996.
During the crisis period it hit the highest point of 85% in October, 1997. During that period Malaysia
experienced 52.2% fall in the stock market (Karunatilleka, 1999) 28
These results are robust across different estimation techniques and seemingly do not
depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty.
The problems of a possible simultaneity bias and heteroskedasticity are
addressed by employing GMM-IV estimation technique. The results of the GMM-IV
estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and
suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias.
The impact of the level of competitiveness among the sample countries is also
examined. The findings confirm that, for the sample countries, the increase in
competitiveness of a country relative to others has positive impact on exports, but the
magnitude is relatively inconsequential.
The empirical results derived in this paper are consistent with findings of
studies on both developed and less developed countries suggesting that exchange-rate
volatility in emerging East Asia economies has a significant negative impact on the
export flows to the world market. Compared with the results of Chit (2008) who
examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on the bilateral exports among the
main members of ACFTA countries, the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports
to the world market is about 30 percent larger than its impact on intra-regional
exports.
Thus, the results of our paper suggest that sample countries should focus on
stabilising their exchange rates vis-a-vis the main trading partners rather than solely
pursuing regional monetary and exchange rate policy cooperation, at least in the short
run.
Seriously? I am hopeless? Am I living in my dreamworld? No dude, watch around you re being a huge douche insulting me but its ok you're german and im greek... Fuck logic... Whats next, sieg heil, burn the greeks and ignore the facts? ... Lol and you're accusing me of having no basic economic knowledge. You 're one funny troll.
he's talking like BILD is writing, just saying 
|
On March 21 2013 06:54 MyNameIsAlex wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:48 ACrow wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work. Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs On March 21 2013 06:20 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf+ Show Spoiler +
4. Conclusion14
Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it
joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between
Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s
aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every
specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports.
The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and
indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are
also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive
than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to
be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price
elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the
eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries
after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2
shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the
huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
Viewed from the perspective of capital flows, eurozone imbalances developed partly
because German banks became more willing to invest in peripheral eurozone countries after the
countries joined the common currency (see Gros and Mayer, 2012). However, following the
eurozone crisis, German banks and savers have become less willing to invest in Greece, Spain, 15
Portugal, Italy, and other deficit countries. Current account imbalances between European
countries may thus prove unsustainable.
In a flexible exchange rate system, part of the resulting adjustment would come through a
nominal appreciation of the German currency relative to the currencies of the deficit countries.
This is precluded as long as these countries share a common currency. Exchange rate adjustment
must come instead through a decline in wages and prices or an increase in productivity in the
peripheral countries vis-à-vis Germany. The evidence presented here indicates that these
adjustments will have to be large. Restoring equilibrium in the eurozone is thus likely to be a
long and painful process.
Sure a high exchange rate isn't perfect for us but keep in mind that the southern states are pushing for printing more money and devaluing their debts not Germany. Germany devalues the Euro with keeping th Eurozone crisis stale. The Cyprus crisis is stale for the last 2 months, and the proposed measures were a joke. I think everyone agrees on this. If not, then how about a global bank run since your deposits are in not secured anymore (hey it happened to Cyprus, and it can happen on (Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe France)? The domino will destroy most banks. Germany had a big say on them too. How they didn't devalue the Euro with this? The same with every Eurogroup and the European Crisis in general. On March 21 2013 03:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 03:02 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 00:14 electronic voyeur wrote:
the Euro is taking is devastating toll Germany is happy about that. Euro going down, USD/EUR going up, more exports for them. Also now all the south is afraid of having money in their banks, they will move them to germany/swiss banks since their considered as the safest banks in Europe (which isn't true according to many analysts). They win twice short term.In the long run this will bite their ass. And people like this guy are the reason why we need a northern union instead of a european union. People like you should really get some education before opening their big loud mouth and parotting the propaganda. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you see on Greek TV and be so quick to attack Germany? Just try to view this from a German's perspective (that's called empathy): Germany pays billions over billions of tax money - money that I worked very hard for - and as thanks Germany gets called Nazis and on every demonstration there are anti-German chants and/or signs. Now I get that the bailouts are used to bailout banks (some of them even German) and not help the small people while at the same time they are asking a lot of neoliberal crap. I'm against that. I know it doesn't really help. I didn't vote for that. Yet, I don't think it's fair to ask for so much and at the same time insult the hand that's feeding you. You should be angry at the incompetent politicians you voted into office the last decade, because those are the ones that failed. We all should be angry at a EU construct that is unable to deal with this, because it lacks the means to properly deal with it. And I don't get how anyone can be against letting stakeholders of Cyprus banks pay their share, as long as only the ones holding more than 100k € are affected (the decision to give a haircut to the ones below 100k was a decision by Cyprus government btw, the Troika just demanded a sum of 5.8bn from the haircut, not how it is distributed). Cyprus government tried to protect their foreign customers coming to Cyprus banks to enjoy low tax rates (which is quite parasitic in nature btw). Be angry at them, not at the Troika. 1st) You guys are feeding me? Really? No thanks, Im a phD engineer and I can feed myself. 2nd) Did I insult anyone? Did I call anyone a Nazi? Did I attack anyone? Im talkign with facts here, Germany wants a weak Euro as it helps with exports. Long term it bites them in the ass since Europe is bleeding and in the foreseeable future the market where Germany exports won't be able to "buy" anymore and German economy will take many steps back. It's only logical this will happen. Jeesus you can't take criticism and think for a moment. Also the tax on Cyprus banks can spark a bankrun in the south. Do you know the consequences of such a huge bankrun? Deposits should not in any way be touched. Not in Cyprus, not in anywhere in EU. edit: ACrow its not stakeholders, its DEPOSITS.
1) not feeding you specifically, but keeping the Greek state liquid. I do not doubt that you can take care for yourself perfectly fine and didn't mean to insult you personally at all - sorry if you got that impression!
2) again, not you specifically; I rather wanted to present a different standpoint from yours, as you were attacking a rather broad, unspecific northern standpoint as well. There is always two sides to a coin, that's my whole point, really.
Btw, the argument that Germany is dependant on southern Europe is not a really convincing one. Sure, they are buying and have been buying, but this cannot work when you don't produce value in return. Right now, all this accrued export surplus does, is increase the Target2 saldo between German and Greek national banks. If Greece cannot pay this Target 2 saldo, it's just more debt.
Customers of a bank are stakeholders. You entrust the bank with your money, and only a part of this money is insured by the bank (up to a certain amount, the state may have a law to protect part of this money). Anything above this amount is considered as bankrupt estate in case the bank goes bankrupt. So yes, a bank's customers are stakeholders too.
|
On March 21 2013 07:25 ACrow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:54 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 06:48 ACrow wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work. Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs On March 21 2013 06:20 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf+ Show Spoiler +
4. Conclusion14
Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it
joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between
Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s
aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every
specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports.
The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and
indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are
also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive
than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to
be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price
elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the
eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries
after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2
shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the
huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
Viewed from the perspective of capital flows, eurozone imbalances developed partly
because German banks became more willing to invest in peripheral eurozone countries after the
countries joined the common currency (see Gros and Mayer, 2012). However, following the
eurozone crisis, German banks and savers have become less willing to invest in Greece, Spain, 15
Portugal, Italy, and other deficit countries. Current account imbalances between European
countries may thus prove unsustainable.
In a flexible exchange rate system, part of the resulting adjustment would come through a
nominal appreciation of the German currency relative to the currencies of the deficit countries.
This is precluded as long as these countries share a common currency. Exchange rate adjustment
must come instead through a decline in wages and prices or an increase in productivity in the
peripheral countries vis-à-vis Germany. The evidence presented here indicates that these
adjustments will have to be large. Restoring equilibrium in the eurozone is thus likely to be a
long and painful process.
Sure a high exchange rate isn't perfect for us but keep in mind that the southern states are pushing for printing more money and devaluing their debts not Germany. Germany devalues the Euro with keeping th Eurozone crisis stale. The Cyprus crisis is stale for the last 2 months, and the proposed measures were a joke. I think everyone agrees on this. If not, then how about a global bank run since your deposits are in not secured anymore (hey it happened to Cyprus, and it can happen on (Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe France)? The domino will destroy most banks. Germany had a big say on them too. How they didn't devalue the Euro with this? The same with every Eurogroup and the European Crisis in general. On March 21 2013 03:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 03:02 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 00:14 electronic voyeur wrote:
the Euro is taking is devastating toll Germany is happy about that. Euro going down, USD/EUR going up, more exports for them. Also now all the south is afraid of having money in their banks, they will move them to germany/swiss banks since their considered as the safest banks in Europe (which isn't true according to many analysts). They win twice short term.In the long run this will bite their ass. And people like this guy are the reason why we need a northern union instead of a european union. People like you should really get some education before opening their big loud mouth and parotting the propaganda. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you see on Greek TV and be so quick to attack Germany? Just try to view this from a German's perspective (that's called empathy): Germany pays billions over billions of tax money - money that I worked very hard for - and as thanks Germany gets called Nazis and on every demonstration there are anti-German chants and/or signs. Now I get that the bailouts are used to bailout banks (some of them even German) and not help the small people while at the same time they are asking a lot of neoliberal crap. I'm against that. I know it doesn't really help. I didn't vote for that. Yet, I don't think it's fair to ask for so much and at the same time insult the hand that's feeding you. You should be angry at the incompetent politicians you voted into office the last decade, because those are the ones that failed. We all should be angry at a EU construct that is unable to deal with this, because it lacks the means to properly deal with it. And I don't get how anyone can be against letting stakeholders of Cyprus banks pay their share, as long as only the ones holding more than 100k € are affected (the decision to give a haircut to the ones below 100k was a decision by Cyprus government btw, the Troika just demanded a sum of 5.8bn from the haircut, not how it is distributed). Cyprus government tried to protect their foreign customers coming to Cyprus banks to enjoy low tax rates (which is quite parasitic in nature btw). Be angry at them, not at the Troika. 1st) You guys are feeding me? Really? No thanks, Im a phD engineer and I can feed myself. 2nd) Did I insult anyone? Did I call anyone a Nazi? Did I attack anyone? Im talkign with facts here, Germany wants a weak Euro as it helps with exports. Long term it bites them in the ass since Europe is bleeding and in the foreseeable future the market where Germany exports won't be able to "buy" anymore and German economy will take many steps back. It's only logical this will happen. Jeesus you can't take criticism and think for a moment. Also the tax on Cyprus banks can spark a bankrun in the south. Do you know the consequences of such a huge bankrun? Deposits should not in any way be touched. Not in Cyprus, not in anywhere in EU. edit: ACrow its not stakeholders, its DEPOSITS. 1) not feeding you specifically, but keeping the Greek state liquid. I do not doubt that you can take care for yourself perfectly fine and didn't mean to insult you personally at all - sorry if you got that impression! 2) again, not you specifically; I rather wanted to present a different standpoint from yours, as you were attacking a rather broad, unspecific northern standpoint as well. There is always two sides to a coin, that's my whole point, really. Btw, the argument that Germany is dependant on southern Europe is not a really convincing one. Sure, they are buying and have been buying, but this cannot work when you don't produce value in return. Right now, all this accrued export surplus does, is increase the Target2 saldo between German and Greek national banks. If Greece cannot pay this Target 2 saldo, it's just more debt. Customers of a bank are stakeholders. You entrust the bank with your money, and only a part of this money is insured by the bank (up to a certain amount, the state may have a law to protect part of this money). Anything above this amount is considered as bankrupt estate in case the bank goes bankrupt. So yes, a bank's customers are stakeholders too.
"So yes, a bank's customers are stakeholders too"
this statement is so retarded, i don't even....
ok. just for you. bank deposits were 100% secure in europe... up until last weekend....
|
On March 21 2013 07:17 fleeze wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 07:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 07:09 fleeze wrote:wtf are you even talking about. sounds like you missed the point and jumped to a totally stupid conclussion. NOBODY wants to devalue the euro even further NOW, the currency is volatile enough that you would be playing with fire even more. the fact still remains that the euro is DEVALUED WHEN COMPARED TO A GERMAN DOMESTIC CURRENCY (which doesn't exist anymore obviously....). Of course it is. But you are suggesting we are actively keeping it down in our own interest which is not true. you're just talking bullshit, because you're missing basic economic knowledge. we already have an undervalued currency. mission accomplished. how about keeping the status quo now?
Please explain it to me and dont leave me in my ignorance. The brilliant plan of paying for our own eurozone exports and incuring losses equal to all of our gdp seems like a nice trade-off for 10-15% more exports. The euro was always so strong before I guess we can relax now since its almost at its lowest right?
![[image loading]](http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/servlet/quickviewChart?SERIES_KEY=120.EXR.D.USD.EUR.SP00.A)
Oh wait Germany had massive economical problems when the eur was at its lowest? As a reminder since you seem to keep your knowledge closely guarded in your head.
http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/17/international/germany/index.htm
|
On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble.
yeah because germany is so RICH in natural resources... we can give a shit about how much we pay COMPARE TO OTHER COUNTIRES. Irony waring !
wtf man ...
Every part of a BMW made in germany came from another place in the beginning, may it be parts or just the steel.
|
On March 20 2013 23:10 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 22:02 accela wrote:On March 20 2013 20:28 JustPassingBy wrote:
Anyways, what are the chances that the European parliament agreeing to help should Russia decide to step in and shoulder the rest? I am pretty sure that Russia stepping in won't be without any big concessions from Cyprus to Russia. Well Cyprus has many examples to examine of what being under a troika's memorandum means. Those deals are far from being just fiscal measures, they are mostly a force to ideologically change an economy to what common people call neoliberalism (ofc it's far more complicated). On the other hand a deal with the Russia is expected to be a more practical solution, "we already have investments in Cyprus, you give us part of the resources and a military base and we will take care of your banks". Now of course Cyprus is already a member of EU and eurozone and that's why they (officialy) asked first the EU for help loan but i think if they can cut a good deal with Russia and avoid the blackmail and threats from Brussels then that would be an one way road. Yeah, I'm pretty sure Russia will offer a better deal than the EU (aside from the military base, not sure at all about that).
hmm, I don't know. Barroso is flying to Russia next week. I think Putin might put a bit of pressure on him to pay up. I don't see them having much of an interest in granting further loans. As it looks right now, the last one granted went down the gutter (as long as nobody steps in and keeps Cyprus afloat). I don't see it as likely that they grand further loans to pay up the old ones, but we will see next week after the meeting with Barroso what the next steps of the involved parties are.
|
On March 21 2013 06:54 fleeze wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:48 ACrow wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work. Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs On March 21 2013 06:20 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf+ Show Spoiler +
4. Conclusion14
Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it
joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between
Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s
aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every
specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports.
The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and
indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are
also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive
than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to
be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price
elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the
eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries
after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2
shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the
huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
Viewed from the perspective of capital flows, eurozone imbalances developed partly
because German banks became more willing to invest in peripheral eurozone countries after the
countries joined the common currency (see Gros and Mayer, 2012). However, following the
eurozone crisis, German banks and savers have become less willing to invest in Greece, Spain, 15
Portugal, Italy, and other deficit countries. Current account imbalances between European
countries may thus prove unsustainable.
In a flexible exchange rate system, part of the resulting adjustment would come through a
nominal appreciation of the German currency relative to the currencies of the deficit countries.
This is precluded as long as these countries share a common currency. Exchange rate adjustment
must come instead through a decline in wages and prices or an increase in productivity in the
peripheral countries vis-à-vis Germany. The evidence presented here indicates that these
adjustments will have to be large. Restoring equilibrium in the eurozone is thus likely to be a
long and painful process.
Sure a high exchange rate isn't perfect for us but keep in mind that the southern states are pushing for printing more money and devaluing their debts not Germany. Germany devalues the Euro with keeping th Eurozone crisis stale. The Cyprus crisis is stale for the last 2 months, and the proposed measures were a joke. I think everyone agrees on this. If not, then how about a global bank run since your deposits are in not secured anymore (hey it happened to Cyprus, and it can happen on (Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe France)? The domino will destroy most banks. Germany had a big say on them too. How they didn't devalue the Euro with this? The same with every Eurogroup and the European Crisis in general. On March 21 2013 03:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 03:02 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 00:14 electronic voyeur wrote:
the Euro is taking is devastating toll Germany is happy about that. Euro going down, USD/EUR going up, more exports for them. Also now all the south is afraid of having money in their banks, they will move them to germany/swiss banks since their considered as the safest banks in Europe (which isn't true according to many analysts). They win twice short term.In the long run this will bite their ass. And people like this guy are the reason why we need a northern union instead of a european union. People like you should really get some education before opening their big loud mouth and parotting the propaganda. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you see on Greek TV and be so quick to attack Germany? Just try to view this from a German's perspective (that's called empathy): Germany pays billions over billions of tax money - money that I worked very hard for - and as thanks Germany gets called Nazis and on every demonstration there are anti-German chants and/or signs. Now I get that the bailouts are used to bailout banks (some of them even German) and not help the small people while at the same time they are asking a lot of neoliberal crap. I'm against that. I know it doesn't really help. I didn't vote for that. Yet, I don't think it's fair to ask for so much and at the same time insult the hand that's feeding you. You should be angry at the incompetent politicians you voted into office the last decade, because those are the ones that failed. We all should be angry at a EU construct that is unable to deal with this, because it lacks the means to properly deal with it. And I don't get how anyone can be against letting stakeholders of Cyprus banks pay their share, as long as only the ones holding more than 100k € are affected (the decision to give a haircut to the ones below 100k was a decision by Cyprus government btw, the Troika just demanded a sum of 5.8bn from the haircut, not how it is distributed). Cyprus government tried to protect their foreign customers coming to Cyprus banks to enjoy low tax rates (which is quite parasitic in nature btw). Be angry at them, not at the Troika. it's funny you tell him not to believe the GREEK media if you are talking GERMAN media after the mouth. btw: it's not "stakeholders of Cyprus banks" its a random, you can even say RETARDED, tax on BANK DEPOSITS on a totally random day and time. it's NOT a tax on the WEALTH it doesn't take into account property or stocks invested in the market. if you want to induce a wealth tax on a population you should at LEAST put some basic thinking into it. edit: in short it is a LIQUIDITY tax (for a random timestamp) instead of a WEALTH tax. btw: STAKEHOLDERS of the banks get bailed out
I was presenting a viewpoint that was rather one sided by purpose to contrast his rather one sided viewpoint. I mentioned that southern media (whose views he seems to share) has also a rather limited standpoint, because he seemed to believe only German media was biased.
A liquidity tax is preferable to no tax on the wealthy if you ask me (it also targets dead capital that does nothing for the economy, unlike taxing property/investments). I'd still prefer letting the banks go bankrupt directly to let them pay for their gambling behaviour, but knowing how much influence other banks (like Deutsche Bank) have on our governments that would lose a lot of money if that happened, this is very unlikely. So I prefer getting some money for the bailout from the super rich instead of none.
Note: please refrain from randomly captialising words (this is akin to shouting in internet lingo as you probably know) and keep this discussion as civil as possible, please.
|
On March 21 2013 07:28 fleeze wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 07:25 ACrow wrote:On March 21 2013 06:54 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 06:48 ACrow wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work. Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs On March 21 2013 06:20 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf+ Show Spoiler +
4. Conclusion14
Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it
joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between
Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s
aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every
specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports.
The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and
indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are
also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive
than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to
be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price
elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the
eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries
after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2
shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the
huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
Viewed from the perspective of capital flows, eurozone imbalances developed partly
because German banks became more willing to invest in peripheral eurozone countries after the
countries joined the common currency (see Gros and Mayer, 2012). However, following the
eurozone crisis, German banks and savers have become less willing to invest in Greece, Spain, 15
Portugal, Italy, and other deficit countries. Current account imbalances between European
countries may thus prove unsustainable.
In a flexible exchange rate system, part of the resulting adjustment would come through a
nominal appreciation of the German currency relative to the currencies of the deficit countries.
This is precluded as long as these countries share a common currency. Exchange rate adjustment
must come instead through a decline in wages and prices or an increase in productivity in the
peripheral countries vis-à-vis Germany. The evidence presented here indicates that these
adjustments will have to be large. Restoring equilibrium in the eurozone is thus likely to be a
long and painful process.
Sure a high exchange rate isn't perfect for us but keep in mind that the southern states are pushing for printing more money and devaluing their debts not Germany. Germany devalues the Euro with keeping th Eurozone crisis stale. The Cyprus crisis is stale for the last 2 months, and the proposed measures were a joke. I think everyone agrees on this. If not, then how about a global bank run since your deposits are in not secured anymore (hey it happened to Cyprus, and it can happen on (Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe France)? The domino will destroy most banks. Germany had a big say on them too. How they didn't devalue the Euro with this? The same with every Eurogroup and the European Crisis in general. On March 21 2013 03:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 03:02 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 00:14 electronic voyeur wrote:
the Euro is taking is devastating toll Germany is happy about that. Euro going down, USD/EUR going up, more exports for them. Also now all the south is afraid of having money in their banks, they will move them to germany/swiss banks since their considered as the safest banks in Europe (which isn't true according to many analysts). They win twice short term.In the long run this will bite their ass. And people like this guy are the reason why we need a northern union instead of a european union. People like you should really get some education before opening their big loud mouth and parotting the propaganda. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you see on Greek TV and be so quick to attack Germany? Just try to view this from a German's perspective (that's called empathy): Germany pays billions over billions of tax money - money that I worked very hard for - and as thanks Germany gets called Nazis and on every demonstration there are anti-German chants and/or signs. Now I get that the bailouts are used to bailout banks (some of them even German) and not help the small people while at the same time they are asking a lot of neoliberal crap. I'm against that. I know it doesn't really help. I didn't vote for that. Yet, I don't think it's fair to ask for so much and at the same time insult the hand that's feeding you. You should be angry at the incompetent politicians you voted into office the last decade, because those are the ones that failed. We all should be angry at a EU construct that is unable to deal with this, because it lacks the means to properly deal with it. And I don't get how anyone can be against letting stakeholders of Cyprus banks pay their share, as long as only the ones holding more than 100k € are affected (the decision to give a haircut to the ones below 100k was a decision by Cyprus government btw, the Troika just demanded a sum of 5.8bn from the haircut, not how it is distributed). Cyprus government tried to protect their foreign customers coming to Cyprus banks to enjoy low tax rates (which is quite parasitic in nature btw). Be angry at them, not at the Troika. 1st) You guys are feeding me? Really? No thanks, Im a phD engineer and I can feed myself. 2nd) Did I insult anyone? Did I call anyone a Nazi? Did I attack anyone? Im talkign with facts here, Germany wants a weak Euro as it helps with exports. Long term it bites them in the ass since Europe is bleeding and in the foreseeable future the market where Germany exports won't be able to "buy" anymore and German economy will take many steps back. It's only logical this will happen. Jeesus you can't take criticism and think for a moment. Also the tax on Cyprus banks can spark a bankrun in the south. Do you know the consequences of such a huge bankrun? Deposits should not in any way be touched. Not in Cyprus, not in anywhere in EU. edit: ACrow its not stakeholders, its DEPOSITS. 1) not feeding you specifically, but keeping the Greek state liquid. I do not doubt that you can take care for yourself perfectly fine and didn't mean to insult you personally at all - sorry if you got that impression! 2) again, not you specifically; I rather wanted to present a different standpoint from yours, as you were attacking a rather broad, unspecific northern standpoint as well. There is always two sides to a coin, that's my whole point, really. Btw, the argument that Germany is dependant on southern Europe is not a really convincing one. Sure, they are buying and have been buying, but this cannot work when you don't produce value in return. Right now, all this accrued export surplus does, is increase the Target2 saldo between German and Greek national banks. If Greece cannot pay this Target 2 saldo, it's just more debt. Customers of a bank are stakeholders. You entrust the bank with your money, and only a part of this money is insured by the bank (up to a certain amount, the state may have a law to protect part of this money). Anything above this amount is considered as bankrupt estate in case the bank goes bankrupt. So yes, a bank's customers are stakeholders too. "So yes, a bank's customers are stakeholders too" this statement is so retarded, i don't even.... ok. just for you. bank deposits were 100% secure in europe... up until last weekend....
Please point me to that law (valid in Cyprus).
|
On March 21 2013 07:28 Yuljan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 07:17 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 07:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 07:09 fleeze wrote:wtf are you even talking about. sounds like you missed the point and jumped to a totally stupid conclussion. NOBODY wants to devalue the euro even further NOW, the currency is volatile enough that you would be playing with fire even more. the fact still remains that the euro is DEVALUED WHEN COMPARED TO A GERMAN DOMESTIC CURRENCY (which doesn't exist anymore obviously....). Of course it is. But you are suggesting we are actively keeping it down in our own interest which is not true. you're just talking bullshit, because you're missing basic economic knowledge. we already have an undervalued currency. mission accomplished. how about keeping the status quo now? Please explain it to me and dont leave me in my ignorance. The brilliant plan of paying for our own eurozone exports and incuring losses equal to all of our gdp seems like a nice trade-off for a 10-15% more exports. The euro was always so strong before I guess we can relax now since its almost at its lowest right? Oh wait Germany had massive economical problems when the eur was at its lowest? As a reminder since you seem to keep your knowledge closely guarded in your head. http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/17/international/germany/index.htm
you are one funny troll.
linking a paper from 2002. HAHHAHA. guess you didn't live in germany in the meantime. hartz 4 and the social security cut along with "improved worker flexibily" happened AFTER 2002. comparing the german economy before and after is, well, pretty stupid.
and you know what? everybody with basic economic knowledge would see that a country, in a monetary union, with a MASSIVE export surplus (9%) is just accruing DEBT in the other countries that won't be paid back (they would just devalue compared to german currency otherwise).
so maybe we can use this debt for something, like enforcing a specific politic all over europe?
On March 21 2013 07:35 ACrow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 06:54 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 06:48 ACrow wrote:On March 21 2013 06:21 MyNameIsAlex wrote:people are quick to attack the south, believin everything they see in TV, and acting with ignorance of how the markets work. Ok guys Germany wants a strong Euro. Whatever you say. /Laughs On March 21 2013 06:20 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf+ Show Spoiler +
4. Conclusion14
Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it
joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between
Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s
aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every
specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports.
The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and
indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are
also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive
than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to
be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price
elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the
eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries
after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2
shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the
huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
Viewed from the perspective of capital flows, eurozone imbalances developed partly
because German banks became more willing to invest in peripheral eurozone countries after the
countries joined the common currency (see Gros and Mayer, 2012). However, following the
eurozone crisis, German banks and savers have become less willing to invest in Greece, Spain, 15
Portugal, Italy, and other deficit countries. Current account imbalances between European
countries may thus prove unsustainable.
In a flexible exchange rate system, part of the resulting adjustment would come through a
nominal appreciation of the German currency relative to the currencies of the deficit countries.
This is precluded as long as these countries share a common currency. Exchange rate adjustment
must come instead through a decline in wages and prices or an increase in productivity in the
peripheral countries vis-à-vis Germany. The evidence presented here indicates that these
adjustments will have to be large. Restoring equilibrium in the eurozone is thus likely to be a
long and painful process.
Sure a high exchange rate isn't perfect for us but keep in mind that the southern states are pushing for printing more money and devaluing their debts not Germany. Germany devalues the Euro with keeping th Eurozone crisis stale. The Cyprus crisis is stale for the last 2 months, and the proposed measures were a joke. I think everyone agrees on this. If not, then how about a global bank run since your deposits are in not secured anymore (hey it happened to Cyprus, and it can happen on (Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe France)? The domino will destroy most banks. Germany had a big say on them too. How they didn't devalue the Euro with this? The same with every Eurogroup and the European Crisis in general. On March 21 2013 03:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 03:02 MyNameIsAlex wrote:On March 21 2013 00:14 electronic voyeur wrote:
the Euro is taking is devastating toll Germany is happy about that. Euro going down, USD/EUR going up, more exports for them. Also now all the south is afraid of having money in their banks, they will move them to germany/swiss banks since their considered as the safest banks in Europe (which isn't true according to many analysts). They win twice short term.In the long run this will bite their ass. And people like this guy are the reason why we need a northern union instead of a european union. People like you should really get some education before opening their big loud mouth and parotting the propaganda. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you see on Greek TV and be so quick to attack Germany? Just try to view this from a German's perspective (that's called empathy): Germany pays billions over billions of tax money - money that I worked very hard for - and as thanks Germany gets called Nazis and on every demonstration there are anti-German chants and/or signs. Now I get that the bailouts are used to bailout banks (some of them even German) and not help the small people while at the same time they are asking a lot of neoliberal crap. I'm against that. I know it doesn't really help. I didn't vote for that. Yet, I don't think it's fair to ask for so much and at the same time insult the hand that's feeding you. You should be angry at the incompetent politicians you voted into office the last decade, because those are the ones that failed. We all should be angry at a EU construct that is unable to deal with this, because it lacks the means to properly deal with it. And I don't get how anyone can be against letting stakeholders of Cyprus banks pay their share, as long as only the ones holding more than 100k € are affected (the decision to give a haircut to the ones below 100k was a decision by Cyprus government btw, the Troika just demanded a sum of 5.8bn from the haircut, not how it is distributed). Cyprus government tried to protect their foreign customers coming to Cyprus banks to enjoy low tax rates (which is quite parasitic in nature btw). Be angry at them, not at the Troika. it's funny you tell him not to believe the GREEK media if you are talking GERMAN media after the mouth. btw: it's not "stakeholders of Cyprus banks" its a random, you can even say RETARDED, tax on BANK DEPOSITS on a totally random day and time. it's NOT a tax on the WEALTH it doesn't take into account property or stocks invested in the market. if you want to induce a wealth tax on a population you should at LEAST put some basic thinking into it. edit: in short it is a LIQUIDITY tax (for a random timestamp) instead of a WEALTH tax. btw: STAKEHOLDERS of the banks get bailed out I was presenting a viewpoint that was rather one sided by purpose to contrast his rather one sided viewpoint. I mentioned that southern media (whose views he seems to share) has also a rather limited standpoint, because he seemed to believe only German media was biased. A liquidity tax is preferable to no tax on the wealthy if you ask me (it also targets dead capital that does nothing for the economy, unlike taxing property/investments). I'd still prefer letting the banks go bankrupt directly to let them pay for their gambling behaviour, but knowing how much influence other banks (like Deutsche Bank) have on our governments that would lose a lot of money if that happened, this is very unlikely. So I prefer getting some money for the bailout from the super rich instead of none. Note: please refrain from randomly captialising words (this is akin to shouting in internet lingo as you probably know) and keep this discussion as civil as possible, please.
a liquidity tax is never fair. and you supporting it says much about your knowledge on the topic.
just like you need a law for the most basic thing in banking: TRUST. if you can't trust a bank, you don't deposit money there. that's why every bank deposit was bailed out until now.
if you want bank runs all across southern europe, go ahead.
btw: "So I prefer getting some money for the bailout from the super rich instead of none."
and the super rich have their money in bank deposits for 1-2% interest.... naivity at its finest.
|
On March 21 2013 07:32 Gaga wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 04:21 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 03:23 Rassy wrote:
Yes a weak euro boost germans exports but germany dont need a weak euro, the german economy can cope verry well with a euro at 1.80 and still have a trade surplus! (according to a study wich i now unfortnatly cant find on the web).
The result of a weak euro is that germany have to trade 2 bmw,s for say 1k barrels of oil, while they could be trading 1 bmw for 1k barrels of oil. Having a weak currency is like a shop having a sale and selling things below cost price.You are able to sell but the indirect costs are verry high.
In the long run it is abolutely killing for the wealth in your country. you're logic is wrong. we export much more cars then we import oil. and it is never killing wealth in your country to devalue, you're only losing wealth COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. if you don't need their goods, you lose nothing at all AND you can export better because your products are cheaper in foreign markets. just look at iceland. germany is really interested in a weak euro, we just don't say it loud because USA and Japan wouldn't be pleased. good thing there's all those southern countries keeping our currency low. i'd guess the DM would skyrocket to something like 1.5 - 2 € immediately thus doubling costs for german goods in other countries. and we would lose a big shared market since we don't give our own population enough money to buy our own manfactured goods. so germany would be in quite some trouble. yeah because germany is so RICH in natural resources... we can give a shit about how much we pay COMPARE TO OTHER COUNTIRES. Irony waring ! wtf man ... Every part of a BMW made in germany came from another place in the beginning, may it be parts or just the steel.
Additionally large parts of it are produced in different countries, they are just finished here. Part of the reason for this is surely to be a bit more independent from currency fluctuations and high wage costs here.
|
On March 21 2013 07:37 fleeze wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 07:28 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 07:17 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 07:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 07:09 fleeze wrote:wtf are you even talking about. sounds like you missed the point and jumped to a totally stupid conclussion. NOBODY wants to devalue the euro even further NOW, the currency is volatile enough that you would be playing with fire even more. the fact still remains that the euro is DEVALUED WHEN COMPARED TO A GERMAN DOMESTIC CURRENCY (which doesn't exist anymore obviously....). Of course it is. But you are suggesting we are actively keeping it down in our own interest which is not true. you're just talking bullshit, because you're missing basic economic knowledge. we already have an undervalued currency. mission accomplished. how about keeping the status quo now? Please explain it to me and dont leave me in my ignorance. The brilliant plan of paying for our own eurozone exports and incuring losses equal to all of our gdp seems like a nice trade-off for a 10-15% more exports. The euro was always so strong before I guess we can relax now since its almost at its lowest right? Oh wait Germany had massive economical problems when the eur was at its lowest? As a reminder since you seem to keep your knowledge closely guarded in your head. http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/17/international/germany/index.htm you are one funny troll. linking a paper from 2002. HAHHAHA. guess you didn't live in germany in the meantime. hartz 4 and the social security cut along with "improved worker flexibily" happened AFTER 2002. comparing the german economy before and after is, well, pretty stupid. and you know what? everybody with basic economic knowledge would see that a country, in a monetary union, with a MASSIVE export surplus (9%) is just accruing DEBT in the other countries that won't be paid back (they would just devalue compared to german currency otherwise). so maybe we can use this debt for something, like enforcing a specific politic all over europe?
And which politics are we enforcing now? Merkel the brilliant next hitler who conquers europe through economic means? I am very interested in subscribing to your conspiracy newsletter. I hope its called die Linke.
Surely you dont suggest that cutting unsustainable social programs helped our economy? Like maybe the austerity measures we try to force on Greece? That is some capitalist propaganda you are spreading here young man!
|
On March 21 2013 07:42 Yuljan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 07:37 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 07:28 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 07:17 fleeze wrote:On March 21 2013 07:13 Yuljan wrote:On March 21 2013 07:09 fleeze wrote:wtf are you even talking about. sounds like you missed the point and jumped to a totally stupid conclussion. NOBODY wants to devalue the euro even further NOW, the currency is volatile enough that you would be playing with fire even more. the fact still remains that the euro is DEVALUED WHEN COMPARED TO A GERMAN DOMESTIC CURRENCY (which doesn't exist anymore obviously....). Of course it is. But you are suggesting we are actively keeping it down in our own interest which is not true. you're just talking bullshit, because you're missing basic economic knowledge. we already have an undervalued currency. mission accomplished. how about keeping the status quo now? Please explain it to me and dont leave me in my ignorance. The brilliant plan of paying for our own eurozone exports and incuring losses equal to all of our gdp seems like a nice trade-off for a 10-15% more exports. The euro was always so strong before I guess we can relax now since its almost at its lowest right? Oh wait Germany had massive economical problems when the eur was at its lowest? As a reminder since you seem to keep your knowledge closely guarded in your head. http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/17/international/germany/index.htm you are one funny troll. linking a paper from 2002. HAHHAHA. guess you didn't live in germany in the meantime. hartz 4 and the social security cut along with "improved worker flexibily" happened AFTER 2002. comparing the german economy before and after is, well, pretty stupid. and you know what? everybody with basic economic knowledge would see that a country, in a monetary union, with a MASSIVE export surplus (9%) is just accruing DEBT in the other countries that won't be paid back (they would just devalue compared to german currency otherwise). so maybe we can use this debt for something, like enforcing a specific politic all over europe? And which politics are we enforcing now? Merkel the brilliant next hitler who conquers europe through economic means? I am very interested in subscribing to your conspiracy newsletter. I hope its called die Linke. Surely you dont suggest that cutting unsustainable social programs helped our economy? Like maybe the austerity measures we try to force on Greece? That is some capitalist propaganda you are spreading here young man!
for economic politics it would be DIE LINKE for sure. all others are neoliberal, lol.
and the politics is called AUSTERITY.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
