EPTEVE Corporation - Page 1459
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Mysticus
298 Posts
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Ueberlisk
Finland455 Posts
On February 22 2013 22:04 KwarK wrote: PLEX just crashed another 20m. 90m below where I bought them now. ueber's top tip. you should liquidate your plexes and buy them again so you would start from +-0. | ||
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jopirg
United States81 Posts
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Mysticus
298 Posts
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KwarK
United States44398 Posts
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Soap
Brazil1546 Posts
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KwarK
United States44398 Posts
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Zavior
Finland753 Posts
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Galdo
United States338 Posts
Or at least make some damn progress. | ||
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kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
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SayGen
United States1209 Posts
On February 23 2013 09:17 KwarK wrote: Up 6m in 5 minutes. No idea wtf is going on with them or which direction they're heading. Weekend market swings may be to blame. | ||
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Viceorvirtue
United States273 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
What if, over a long period of time, a bunch of wealthy people sunk all of their disposable income into PLEX with the plan to sell them at a high price far down the line? I don't think that would yield profit, but it's the only effective way to manipulate the PLEX market that I can think of... I've always thought of PLEX as unmanipulatable. | ||
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SayGen
United States1209 Posts
On February 23 2013 13:32 motbob wrote: How would someone manipulate a market downwards? To manipulate a market upwards you generally restrict supply by buying up all the stocks of an item, then selling at an inflated price and/or dumping when the price rises enough and there are buy orders. What's the equivalent mechanism for forcing the price downwards? What if, over a long period of time, a bunch of wealthy people sunk all of their disposable income into PLEX with the plan to sell them at a high price far down the line? I don't think that would yield profit, but it's the only effective way to manipulate the PLEX market that I can think of... I've always thought of PLEX as unmanipulatable. Plex dumping--basiclly you start a panic. by adding a thousand plex to the supply the value per plex would go down, this might cause people to instantly sell all their extra plex at a loss- see Black Tuesday (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929) in an attempt to get some value from the investment. "A little loss is better than a big loss" Once you get the plex as low as you can--buy buy buy buy. | ||
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deth
Australia1757 Posts
On February 23 2013 13:32 motbob wrote: How would someone manipulate a market downwards? To manipulate a market upwards you generally restrict supply by buying up all the stocks of an item, then selling at an inflated price and/or dumping when the price rises enough and there are buy orders. What's the equivalent mechanism for forcing the price downwards? What if, over a long period of time, a bunch of wealthy people sunk all of their disposable income into PLEX with the plan to sell them at a high price far down the line? I don't think that would yield profit, but it's the only effective way to manipulate the PLEX market that I can think of... I've always thought of PLEX as unmanipulatable. Oversaturate the market with greatly increased supply. Happens with resources a lot, their relative value is based on supply and demand, and with things like diamonds/gold etc and based on worldwide supply and how much is found/mined/scarcity. If someone found a goldmine tomorrow which would double the world's supply of gold, the price would go into freefall. | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On February 23 2013 13:55 deth wrote: Oversaturate the market with greatly increased supply. Happens with resources a lot, their relative value is based on supply and demand, and with things like diamonds/gold etc and based on worldwide supply and how much is found/mined/scarcity. If someone found a goldmine tomorrow which would double the world's supply of gold, the price would go into freefall. Yes, I know how supply/demand works, but the question is how someone would manipulate a market downwards in EVE specifically (and make a profit). Manufacturing a bunch of stuff and dumping it on the market isn't really "manipulating." There's no profit to be gained from it, especially since producers will not want to put goods on market for below build price. | ||
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deth
Australia1757 Posts
On February 23 2013 14:05 motbob wrote: Yes, I know how supply/demand works, but the question is how someone would manipulate a market downwards in EVE specifically (and make a profit). Manufacturing a bunch of stuff and dumping it on the market isn't really "manipulating." There's no profit to be gained from it, especially since producers will not want to put goods on market for below build price. A lot of the time (from what I've seen and read anyways) they mostly don't do it to make a profit, they do it to fuck with the economy and generally just be a dick or have fun. | ||
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419
Russian Federation3632 Posts
On February 23 2013 14:05 motbob wrote: Yes, I know how supply/demand works, but the question is how someone would manipulate a market downwards in EVE specifically (and make a profit). Manufacturing a bunch of stuff and dumping it on the market isn't really "manipulating." There's no profit to be gained from it, especially since producers will not want to put goods on market for below build price. Is it even possible to distinguish between purposeful manipulative "crashing" and natural 'readjustment' of prices downwards? I guess I'm phrasing the latter pretty vaguely, hopefully you get what I mean. A lot of the time (from what I've seen and read anyways) they mostly don't do it to make a profit, they do it to fuck with the economy and generally just be a dick or have fun. True, a game's limitation is that there are different motivating factors for behavior than RL. You don't starve if you subscribe to the "minerals I mine are free" philosophy, after all. | ||
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inph
4 Posts
What if, over a long period of time, a bunch of wealthy people sunk all of their disposable income into PLEX with the plan to sell them at a high price far down the line? I don't think that would yield profit, but it's the only effective way to manipulate the PLEX market that I can think of... I've always thought of PLEX as unmanipulatable. Large short term spikes get a reaction from the Eve Central Bank (see CSM minutes): PLEX Graph Showing ECB reacting to a FW cashout spike. CSM minutes Dr.EyjoG also provided CSM with a report on PLEX intervention(s) made by the EVE Central Bank since the last CSM Summit. The major intervention was related to a PLEX price spike triggered by a large FW payout, and PLEX prices have remained stable since that time. The CSM was satisfied that the ECB had acted appropriately and in line with the procedures previously described. Dr.EyjoG noted that he hopes to have a devblog out in January that discusses this topic in more detail. Long term artificial increased demand by wealthy people would need to raise demand to higher than supply to force normal consumption to drive the price up over time. Then you'd have a huge amount of stock to sell and the market would not be able to absorb that kind of dumping without causing a downward trend. Likewise if the wealthy buyers were providing the artificial increase in demand they would need to keep buying to enforce that artificial demand to keep prices high. Other than the actual PLEX price our next metric is the number of active players playing Eve. The more people actively playing means both higher supply and demand. However the ratio of supply:demand changes as well and typically supply increases more than demand. http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility The All time (weekly average) graph at the bottom shows that since retribution there are roughly 8k+ more active players. Looking at the PLEX graph for the same time frame (Dec 2012) onwards and we a downward trend. PLEX volumes aren't massively increasing so we have a small increase in demand and larger increase in supply that's tied to active population. Events like the titan losses in Asakai also tend get a lot of media attention that subsequently draws in a large influx of new players, many who buy PLEX. Additionally we're also seeing a CCP PLEX sale about once a month. On February 23 2013 13:32 motbob wrote: How would someone manipulate a market downwards? To manipulate a market upwards you generally restrict supply by buying up all the stocks of an item, then selling at an inflated price and/or dumping when the price rises enough and there are buy orders. What's the equivalent mechanism for forcing the price downwards? Downwards manipulation works best when you know there's an influx of supply that's going to slam into buy orders. So it's more a case of speeding/over extending an already existing downward trend than direct manipulation. The two types of traders you want to manipulate at this stage are PLEX flippers and investors who might panic sell. If you look at the expires in time and notice there are people updating lots of small orders for both buys and sells then there are lots of flippers active. Investors who dump a large number (50-300+) of PLEX on sells. Getting these orders to move will set new sell boundaries. Today's story starts during EU prime time when I check the price of PLEX in Jita and I notice there's a fresh 25 sell order just above buy order price at ~493m. Sells are at 504m so I buy all 25 instantly without having to pay a broker fee. Looking at the buy orders I notice that the flippers are highly active, the lower boundary for PLEX is 493 with a buy order for 50 odd under a whole bunch of small sell orders then not really much in the way of buys for 490, 485 and 480. Under 480m there are buys for ~20 odd so the target will be to depress the market to at least 480m buys. Looking at sell orders, there's a 70+ sell order that's being actively moved but being endlessly 0.01 isk'd by a load of small sell orders. Our goal is to move that 70+ sell order lower to force people to clear out the buy orders down to 480m. Split the 25 newly acquired PLEX into 3 groups of 10, 10 and 6 (threw in a PLEX I had) The spread is 11m (493-504) so the first task is to close that gap. Wait until there are sell orders that are constantly being updated approaching almost 5 minutes from their last update. Then undercut them by 1m and we put up all of our PLEX at the same price ~ 503m. This creates a big visual block and makes traders react to your block by undercutting. Seconds later those orders get undercut by traders who want to sell their flipped PLEXs. That's good for us, we don't actually want to sell our PLEX yet. Now keep shifting our orders down 1 at a time typically the jumps are around 0.5m-2m since you typically get undercut by up to 1m or more. The target is to get the spread to around 5-6m, so the flippers are still making some profit but a lot will panic and start to sell. About now the 70+ sell order to moves down to under 500m and a 150 sell order has also appeared at 500m (probably panic sells.) We're actually looking for an event now, that is when someone who's bought a good chunk of PLEX from CCP and dumps that to buy orders. It will instantly clear out a lot/all of the small buy orders. Typically clearing down to a big buy order. When you notice the small buys have been cleared, move your sells down to a bit below the cost of flipping a PLEX. So now we have buys at 493m and sells at 497m which is roughly ~1m loss for flippers. When the 50 buy order at 493m gets cleared, PLEX starts free falling through the 20 or so needed to hit 480m. Constant pressure from shifting your sells downwards causes the more buys to get cleared since there are no more PLEX flippers putting up buy orders since it's no longer profitable to flip. Instead they're all getting rid of their toxic stock. This is where you want to put up your decent sized multiple buy orders. I used multiples of 10 and ended up buying ~100 PLEX at ~480m. Pretty much all of the flippers were gone at this point so it was relatively uncontested. When you're buying your stock, move your sells upwards to where you want to sell at which is typically just below the big sell orders (at 497m) and keep your small buys on top and keep raising the buys. This technically creates a thin market with lots of small orders on sells but no significant volume between the lowest sell (488m) and your block at 497m. Being EU prime time that doesn't take long to clear upwards and you only really need one big buyer to clear them. Usually you wont get a huge amount of time before other people notice the large spread and put up buy orders but hopefully by then you've got a decent stock pile. Lots of new decent size buy orders is healthy at this point, it will create a new baseline and you can force their price up by raising your small buy orders and deny them stock at the same time. When it's time to cash out and sell stock, sells have cleared up to the blocks at 497m and there are a lot of buys around 483m-488m. http://i.imgur.com/OKCKMXs.png last buys ending at 480m and about 30 minutes for the market to settle after Since it's both weekend and EU prime time clearing stock doesn't take long, roughly 12-14m profit after tax per PLEX. Total profit is around ~1.5b. Not sure if the sale will break 480m, if it does it'll probably drop another 10m to 470m. As for manipulating buys upwards, if you're putting a decent sized buy order up (50+) follow that with a margin trade scam buy order just below it for a larger amount (70-100). So it encourages the larger order traders to overcut your buy and your margin trade order which can help establish an upward trend. -- PLEX flipping assuming you have accounting 5 and broker relations 5 and decent standings (8+ faction and corp): Buying a PLEX you pay broker fee + buy price: this is roughly just over 1m in broker fees ~0.23% Selling a PLEX you pay sales tax 0.75% and a broker fee if you use a sell order: ~1m broker fee and 3.7m in sales tax (so call it roughly 5m) Whenever there's more than a 5m spread between buys and sells on PLEX there's ISK to be made flipping PLEXs. | ||
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KwarK
United States44398 Posts
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