Show nested quote +On July 06 2026 Tim Morten wrote on LinkedIn:
Even though top-line game industry revenue remains healthy (largely on the strength of perennial titles), the business of building new game franchises in North America is in steep decline. At the top of the ecosystem, there are fewer new bets because budgets are so high that maximizing returns / minimizing risk must be the focus. The rest of the ecosystem is in a race to the bottom on budgets: oversupply justifies only small bets. VC for content is gone, publishers are looking for bargain bin pricing (on mostly finished games), and the actual budgets available from "project financing" funds are a joke.
For NA game-makers, I believe the implications are:
● More cuts to come, both at large companies and independent studios (the scope of the Microsoft RIF is sobering)
● North America will only support a fraction of prior development jobs; many will have to transition to other industries and/or relocate to lower-cost regions
● There will be substantially fewer new studios backed by VCs or publishers (garage studios working for sweat equity are about all that's possible)
● Fewer new IPs will be developed at big studios; this era is all about minimizing risk
● Large companies with existing successes will maintain North American teams -- but will primarily focus on established franchises, and slash other costs (eg - Sony, Microsoft, Riot, Epic, EA, TakeTwo)
● Already successful indies, largely from outside North America, can afford new bets (eg - Larian, CDPR, FromSoft, Sandfall, Arrowhead) with only select North American studios in a similar position (eg - Behaviour, That Game Company, Super Giant)
● There will be continued investment translating successful IP from other media into games (eg - IO Interactive, Second Dinner), and companies with owned IP will focus here (eg - Amazon, Netflix, Warner, Paramount, NBC/U, Hasbro/WotC)
● A handful of equity-funded bets are still playing out, with some chance for success (eg - That's No Moon, Absurd Ventures, Raid Base, Gardens)
● Roblox will continue to be a microcosm of growth, despite challenges with discovery and stickiness, and unfavorable creator rev share
● The use of AI tools will proliferate, and will empower a flood of low to mid-tier releases (unfortunately, also including slop) that cannibalize attention in much the same way YouTube cannibalizes from linear
● For high-tier content, even though AI will reduce team sizes and accelerate early iteration, AI will likely NOT yield substantial cost savings (token costs are meaningful and growing, polishing to release quality still requires substantial human time and effort)
● With an ever-increasing oversupply of content, consumers will be correspondingly increasingly selective and critical
● Competition for attention from other sources will only continue
My advice to fellow North American developers is to highly value jobs at companies with existing successes. If you encounter any well-funded new bets, those are unicorns to be cherished.
Nothing really new here, mostly just Tim being sad at the prospects for North American game developers. It sounds a bit like he is getting tired and frustrated. Doesn't really bode well for his continued fundraising efforts for Frost Giant.