NBA Offseason 2012 - Page 77
Forum Index > General Games |
a176
Canada6688 Posts
| ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:11 Zorkmid wrote: Defensive metrics are stupid for basketball, impossible to quantify via statistical models (people do try though). I think that the main things great defensive centres do are: 1. Alter shots at or near the rim. (blocks are just a bonus) 2. Force teams to shoot from the outside (mainly due to #1) 3. Allow their perimeter players to play more agressively (they'll have the confidence that if they get burned it's not finished). Pretty good way to look at it. Also Dwight's development and his team's defensive ability had a ton to do with Stan Van Gundy. But no one gives him much credit and everyone thinks Dwight was naturally that gifted of a defender in the KG/Ben Wallace mold when he didn't start out that way. Even now he isn't a better defender than either of them in their primes. | ||
rei
United States3593 Posts
| ||
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On August 17 2012 08:09 rei wrote: isn't ben wallace way undersize? how can he be better than howard in the defensive end? Defense is 90% timing and knowing where to be. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On August 17 2012 08:09 rei wrote: isn't ben wallace way undersize? how can he be better than howard in the defensive end? Well he is a massively muscular dude so posting him up was a chore. He was also pretty good at crushing PnRs and aside from superstar wings with insane efficiency at the time (Wade/Lebron) he usually got his way. Those Detroit teams ranked in the top 3, might have been #1 even over 2008 or 2010 Boston Celtics in defensive rating. The recent trend in the NBA (last 10 years I'd say) has been more about speed and positioning instead of "size" because of the dominance of perimeter superstars and the rule change which allowed teams to play zones. It really is a waste of time to rely on someone posting up too much, especially if they can't pass from all areas of the post. It's why Pau Gasol is such a matchup nightmare. His size is an advantage but his passing skill is really what kills teams - you can't double the man at all. | ||
Southlight
United States11744 Posts
The counterpoint to that counterpoint is that against smallball and the sheer athleticism of the 6'9 range guys these days, the big-man with weaker footwork is going to get shredded, forcing teams on defense to really adjust by using mixed zones and such. That's what the Celtics do (KG is like a zone defender, and he's so freaking smart he eliminates mistakes/hides weaknesses) and so on. A mediocre bigman on the other hand can easily get shredded defensively, leading to a lack of any gains and sometimes even a negative if you're looking at an "overrated" bigman or a mediocre one. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On August 17 2012 08:35 Southlight wrote: The counterpoint to the above is that a dominating big-man is still dominating, as they pose a matchup nightmare on the offensive end (see: players like KG and Duncan). If you're looking at a younger, more energetic guy (no knock on KG/Duncan but they do wear down over a game more easily now) you're looking at a player who can post like a 50-60% efficacy and get 30-40 points. The counterpoint to that counterpoint is that against smallball and the sheer athleticism of the 6'9 range guys these days, the big-man with weaker footwork is going to get shredded, forcing teams on defense to really adjust by using mixed zones and such. That's what the Celtics do (KG is like a zone defender, and he's so freaking smart he eliminates mistakes/hides weaknesses) and so on. A mediocre bigman on the other hand can easily get shredded defensively, leading to a lack of any gains and sometimes even a negative if you're looking at an "overrated" bigman or a mediocre one. Yea 100% agreed. I think the thing that dominating bigs like Duncan and KG have over most others (including Bynum who I dont see as a franchise player) is their ability to post up from anywhere while being a threat to pass at any moment. Those guys can drop 30 points on post ups and face ups in a hurry and keep the offense flowing. I don't think Bynum is that kind of player yet. Then again maybe with Kobe out of town his usage rate will spike up and we'll see that 25+ ppg monster that people claim he can be. For the second point I also agree and that's why I think if you can land a superstar wing defender your life is SO much easier. Even if you have terrible defensive bigs, you can save them from a couple of possessions a game if you have top notch wing defense backed with a zone. Of course it won't help in the long run unless you're truly loaded with wings which is what I think Minnesota tried to do. They loaded up on guys who looked big for their position or defensively stood out (Webster, Beasley, Williams, Brewer, Rubio) to "hide" Kevin Love's defensive issues. They found out the hard way that Beasley and Williams aren't good enough defensively and shit went south. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
http://yaomingblog.com/2012/08/15/the-reality-of-the-ivory-trade/ | ||
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
| ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/08/16/post-play-paul-pierce-kobe-bryant/ | ||
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
An nteresting read on why lakers look good on paper: http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/08/14/the-inbounds-nash-howard-and-an-impossible-sword/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter + Show Spoiler + Last year, on a team where Marcin Gortat was the second-best player on the team and the rest of the roster was at best inconsistent and at worst a hot mess, Steve Nash‘s passes out of the pick and roll lead to scoring 59.5% of the time, which was best among players with 100 possessions, according to Synergy Sports. So he was literally the best pick and roll passer in the leauge. Last year, on a team where Jameer Nelson had injury issues, the entire team has chemistry problems related to the ongoing drama, and the offense was primarily geared around perimeter shooters (oh, and he was injured), Dwight Howard scored as the pick and roll man 73.7% of the time, which was best in the league. So they have literally paired the best pick and roll passing guard with the best pick and roll finisher in the league. Ready for some more crack analysis? As a result, the Lakers are going to be pretty good. The Nash-Howard dynamic on the floor is the most dangerous element the Lakers will have in play. Kobe Bryant is still an elite scorer. Pau Gasol and Steve Nash will have a fantastic mastery of the pick and pop set. But Nash-Howard, long before the Lakers entered the picture, was the perfect combination. A point guard who can deliver the ball to any point on the floor combined with the most athletic big man with excellent feel for the pick and roll spacing. If you cover the roll, Nash shoots, and he shoots 55 percent from that situation. Bring help and either Gasol has a mid-range jumper or Bryant is open on the cut or catch. It’s the BFG of offense. And it’s indicative of the real reason this team will be so dangerous. It fits together better than any superteam in recent memory. The stellar combinations of talent that have accumulated over the past five seasons have all been dynamic, impressive combinations of ability. But the Celtics, with a high-usage self-creating small forward, a spot-up shooter wing, and a hyper-versatile combo forward? The Celtics’ were dominant precisely because they were willing to commit themselves to something greater than their original talents. They sacrificed for a greater concept. It was a good offense, but not an elite one. The Heat? They’ve learned to play together, but the reason they’ve struggled over the past two years is because versatile combo-point-forward mixed with ISO slashing shooting guard, and traditional stretch four? It’s not a perfect mix. The Knicks…. yeah, the Knicks. The Lakers bring something entirely different. Nash fits well with Gasol’s ability to spread the floor, and can create open looks for Bryant, something that he doesn’t do on his own. But Nash with Howard maximizes both of their abilities. They only way to properly defend it is to bring help defenders, and at that point you’ve got Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol (or Metta World Peace or Jodie Meeks or Steve Blake) with enough space to allow them to make a sandwich before they shoot. But all that’s on paper. There’s a million ways the Lakers can fall apart. Chemistry, injuries (Howard’s back, in particular), good ol’ fashioned age, the simple fact that despite all the evidence to the contrary, things on paper don’t just go together. Mike Brown’s coaching is widely held as suspect, and Bryant’s willingness to let go of the reins is not exactly something you can count on. The lesson from the Heat should be that it isn’t that simple. That it does take time to click, and that talent isn’t everything. But the formula the Lakers have put together isn’t one built on just raw talent. It’s a special combination of skills. Bringing in a player that can pass like Nash is one thing, but pick and roll is his bread and butter. And Dwight Howard’s one big piece of toast. The trick here is to not overestimate what the Laker are capable of, to not overstate their ceiling by talking about nonsense like 72 wins or a title right off the bat, but to also recognize and respect the brilliance of what the Lakers have put together. They could have gotten sub-stars at redundant positions, or shuffled the same pieces. Acquiring just Nash and you have a dominant team that still is trying to find the right ways to go together. Just get Howard, and you have size but nothing to figure out how the pieces fit together. But instead, this combination is going to bring something more dangerous than anything else the Lakers have. Let’s be clear. If Kobe Byant were to vanish from existence tomorrow like in “Back to the Future,” just vanish into nothing, the Lakers would still be dominant because of the strength of how much better Nash makes every player around him and how strong Howard is as a finisher and defensively. There’s room to admit that the Lakers have a lot of challenges and risks, including Howard’s back, their age, and to acknowledge just how good this team will be, and why. If the Lakers are healthy, and there’s no personality conflict, the league is in trouble. Because if they’re not unguardable, they’ll be as close as it gets. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
Bonus for shits and giggles: + Show Spoiler + | ||
unknown.sam
Philippines2701 Posts
go OKC! | ||
Kazeyonoma
United States2912 Posts
On August 18 2012 12:29 MassHysteria wrote: Ya, the Chinese might like Lin but they love Kobe. Bonus for shits and giggles: + Show Spoiler + You betcha, there was an article from last year or two years ago, where a bunch of the US players did skirmish games against the chinese leagues, and a group of fans ran up to lebron with pen and papers for autographs, as he got ready to sign their papers, they looked at him confused and simply asked, 'where's kobe?' as they had no clue who 'leblon james' was. LOL | ||
slyboogie
United States3423 Posts
| ||
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On August 17 2012 14:58 Ace wrote: Cool entry about post possession leaders in the NBA the last 2 seasons http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/08/16/post-play-paul-pierce-kobe-bryant/ Only skimmed it earlier and really didn't read this until now and I have to say it really is good. Ya saw Ibaka signing. It's not bad, just wondering how it will go for OKC fans with Harden next season. | ||
krndandaman
Mozambique16569 Posts
| ||
Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
| ||
slyboogie
United States3423 Posts
On August 19 2012 14:04 krndandaman wrote: It's still possible that OKC keeps Harden though. Apparently Harden is willing to take a pay cut to stay in OKC. It's gonna be tough but entirely possible. There's no way he's taking enough of a pay cut that retaining him doesn't make OKC a repeat tax team for 2-3 seasons. If I were Harden's agent, the player's union or Shabazz Muhammad, I'd throw up all over myself if Harden took way less than his market rate. I mean, for this to really work, he can't even sign an offer sheet! He's just got to sit there, ignoring all the offers that come piling in from every team with cap space - while his agent and family beg him to sign - all the while, hoping that Sam Presti offers him a deal that doesn't embarrass him. I guess this can be avoided if the Thunder approach him now with a large extension, but like I said, that would almost certainly make them a repeat tax team for the rest of the Durant-era, which is probably where you need to be anyways. I think we all can agree, barring some kind of disastrous regression or injury, that Harden is going to bank an 8-digit annual salary - even with the Thunder. Some guys rarely take less, but young guys never take millions less. | ||
| ||