On August 25 2016 03:15 hariooo wrote: Okay you don't really seem to understand how stats work so I'm not going to get baited into trying to argue against someone who came to (in their mind) a statistical conclusion based on 7 games. Just not how that works.
Otherwise, picking him first phase serves a few purposes. If Secret go into that draft knowing they want TB+Alch, they're going to secure their strategy and then use the last 3 picks as reactionary picks. They're not going to risk having the core of the strategy banned and mess up their entire game plan to come up with a new draft. You can disagree with the strategy but don't let that fool you into thinking Secret picked Alch first phase because they didn't understand what the relative strength of the hero.
LGD probably lost the draft except for WW. They were 20k ahead and could barely push high ground. And if you think LGD outdrafted Secret based on WW, that would still mean that Secret lost the draft based on not last-banning WW which is completely independent of their first phase Alchemist pick, which again I have to reiterate almost won them the game after being in a 20k hole. If Maybe doesn't get 3 rune enabled kills in a row and completely crush Secret early game and Secret go into the midgame close to even on net worth are you really going to suggest that Secret's draft would let them down?
It's really pretty simple and no one can explain it. If Secret was badly outdrafted (according to reddit and LD but not by any actual pro so far hmm wonder why), the team with the better draft should win the game *CLEANLY* with a 20k lead. So I find it much more likely that there are strengths of Secret's draft that most people don't understand that gave them a chance for a comeback than the alternative where LGD outdrafts Secret and outplays Secret but almost loses anyway. That would be complete nonsense.
I am sorry that I wont answer your posting. I clearly made a statement about different perspectives of pro gamers and that a bone7 trademark does not exist. It was just kind of "sarkastic" too, because bone7 and his drafts on kaipi/ his way to think about dota, is nothing I would call approved-to-be-good. For me he always was an exot in the way he itemized and the heropool he thought is meta-relevant.
I realized you liked the input from a progamer and you share the opinion about that draft.
I just wasted a lot of time in explaining my perspective, because I got triggered by the "thats not an argument"-stuff, to read a posting afterwards with stuff like: "Okay you don't really seem to understand how stats work". Btw I clearly mentioned In my posting, that the samplesize is small, and I dont have the time to proof it for the whole TI-patch. I studied math and computer science and I really love your statement about me "not knowing" how statistics work : )
For that reason I wont answer you - I think we should just stop our discussion. Thanks for your time.
You made a post about pros having different perspectives but you haven't provided an alternative pro perspective. Suggesting there's a hypothetical counterargument by a pro out there isn't an actual point. It's like me saying there are plenty of people with stats majors who would disagree with you. I'd prove it but I don't have the time. /s
And if your criticism of bone7 is that you don't think he's a good player/drafter therefore his opinion isn't relevant, then why should anyone listen to you? You'd probably answer because you made specific points supporting your perspective but you didn't respond to any of bone7's actual points he made in the interview. It's just double standards and hypocrisy from you.
I have noticed your posting. I stick with my above post to not discuss with people starting to attack others in posts - even when its a subliminal way.
Either don't respond and don't discuss (instead of making a post about how you're not going to discuss, how weird is that) or make an actual point when I point out your hypocrisy. If you're willing to ignore bone7's specific points and dismiss his opinion because you don't think he's a good player why should anyone listen to you?
On August 25 2016 05:59 spudde123 wrote: I'm not a big Alch fan myself but there's several things that imo are relevant that game. One can't say "1st phase Alch is bad" in isolation, not taking into consideration the context of that specific draft.
Firstly, it was the very last pick of the 1st phase. Secret had banned Timber and ET (Timber especially one of the best cores to burst Alch), LGD had banned Wisp+Drow (Drow allows for very fast paced pushing which may come too early for Alch to handle). Secret started with SD (giving them something to abuse the radiance illusions and a hero to save their carry from burst), LGD answered with Mirana+Kunkka. I wouldn't consider either of these heroes super good against Alch, especially given that SD should be able to save the Alch from the 1 time burst these heroes offer in fights. Neither of them is super strong against Alch in lane either imo, unless you somehow eat 3 torrents consecutively when the Kunkka is sitting in vision (not sure if it was 2 or 3 but anyway point stands). And because it was the last pick of the 1st phase, Secret can in the 2nd ban phase ban AA. Talking about Alch in general or his viability as a 1st phase pick is quite pointless when it's that specific game that matters.
I don't really want to get into the rest of the draft anymore, but my point is simply that imo the game quite clearly was winnable, and most of what happened early in the game had very little to do with the draft but individual players on the team and Secret as a whole just getting completely outplayed for the first 10 minutes. Had the game been a bit more even, LGD would have been in trouble.
Can you explain the first part of your posting? I think the stage where several heroes are picked is one of the important parts of draftings. There are a lot of heroes that do not work well in the first phase, because you can abuse the fact of showing a part of the strategy early, and one of the most important things... you can draft in a bad situation all 3 cores around.
The game lgd secret was:
BAN Secret: timber, elder
I understand the timber ban, the elder is just strong against every hero at all, it s not a show stopper for alchi. Timber was a good way to set up. What secret saw is a mirana, kunkka. The problem about mirana is, she is super easy to roleswap. The mirana vs alch matchup was something they would have liked to get.. but it s a mirana? If the team got more than 1 player to play the hero, you dont know what you deal with. It s the same for lot of heroes for example sandking on navi-drafts. You cant react that well, so LGDs opener was pretty good.
I loved the SD first - sd/elder I would rate as the most contested and strongest TI-patch supps. In this stage alch is crap from my perspective, and one special reason here is, they only see a mirana and kunkka. No information of what could be in mid core role. Then they pick alch - so you now can roleswap and just draft 3 cores being able to abuse the mid alch fact or add a support up if you want to safelane or offlane mirana.
Secret banned AA + morph - clear and understandable bans. Afterwards they showed their second core, terrorblade... why? What is the reason to do this. They saw a juggerpick, so you know that jugger will be mid, for sure he will be. Its such an easy lane for jugg and alch cant roleswap with success. Why do you want to show your next core in that stage to give lgd the chance to react with 2 cores or 1.
The beastmaster came afterwards - just a simple question, why not beastmaster in first stage? Why not beastmaster as 3rd pick? Do they really think they will denypick tb with mirana+kunkka jugger?
I am questioning a lot to be honest. Maybe you can explain me why this sequence makes sense to you. Maybe we can discuss it and I understand what ppy was thinking about. From my perspective they drafted themselfs into a corner with a paperdraft, with the early alch they clearly gave up their mid against a strong jugg core mid. To secure rtz a game they need to commit 1 support to mid or even dodge the lane and transition one support to just seek some xp out of the uncontested jugg mid. Its a mid lane loss by draft decision based on first phase alch (from my perspective). Even playerwise I dont want to understand why someone would give rtz an unfavorable matchup.
We can continue this with.. if you need to commit a support for the mid unfavored matchup, you can abuse it with any offlane with escape, even with a mirana... but lets start with the question of - why first phase alch and why tb 3rd pick... and why does someone think tb and alch work well together. Is there a database where I can analyse tb+alch TI-patch winrate?
By the first part I mean that in that specific draft there were a number of picks and bans that influenced the Alch getting picked. The way you worded it suggested that it's terrible 1st phase no matter what, but there definitely are bans you can make or picks the enemy can make to make it worse or better. I heavily doubt Secret had somehow made a decision to go for Alch before the game no matter what, but perhaps considered it as an option when they decided to 1st ban Timber. But they still have to see what LGD bans and picks before picking it up. And as I said I'm not a big Alch fan myself but anyway some of the worst things you can face were off the table. I am not claiming the Alch was a brilliant pick, I am saying that analyzing "1st phase Alch" in general is pretty worthless because it's only this specific game situation that matters.
I don't really care to discuss the exact drafting order, I wasn't trying to claim it was fantastic or without flaws. My point is that flaming the draft hard gets silly when most of what caused Secret to fall behind in that game had very little to do with the draft. Secret's lineup had the potential to win the game even when they got terribly outplayed in the first 15 minutes and lost all mapcontrol, which imo was not necessary with those drafts. What could have been if they didn't get badly outplayed and instead could make moves of their own and LGD didn't have all that early tower gold and space to farm all 3 of their cores?
Probably shouldn't even mention the fallacy of using bracket stage games where Alch lost when the majority happened after the Secret game. Not sure how Secret are supposed to look into the future to use stats based off a huge sample size of 7.
Are there any liquid, fanatic, or alliance members on the new secret lineup?
Anyone (GrandGrant) have any insight before the announcement.
1. Bulldog said there would be changes and Loda announced alliance not playing WCA tonight 2. S4's girlfeind just said she doesn't want Alliance to win ti7
On August 28 2016 03:21 common_cider wrote: Are there any liquid, fanatic, or alliance members on the new secret lineup?
Anyone (GrandGrant) have any insight before the announcement.
1. Bulldog said there would be changes and Loda announced alliance not playing WCA tonight 2. S4's girlfeind just said she doesn't want Alliance to win ti7
w33 was kicked for immaturity. it got one veryone's nerves. They liked misery. source puppey interview
New lineup. Absolutely love it. We get 3 of the best core players in the world. These core players have accomplished top finishes without a world class support duo. Combine a top of the world support duo with these 3 cores and u have a fukin' team.
On August 28 2016 04:22 common_cider wrote: w33 was kicked for immaturity. it got one veryone's nerves. They liked misery. source puppey interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HLeuq_ty0U
New lineup. Absolutely love it. We get 3 of the best core players in the world. These core players have accomplished top finishes without a world class support duo. Combine a top of the world support duo with these 3 cores and u have a fukin' team.
Is this a fan opinion? Do you really call ppy and pld a world class support duo based on their plays the last months since universe-secret to the TI6 secret?
On August 28 2016 04:22 common_cider wrote: w33 was kicked for immaturity. it got one veryone's nerves. They liked misery. source puppey interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HLeuq_ty0U
New lineup. Absolutely love it. We get 3 of the best core players in the world. These core players have accomplished top finishes without a world class support duo. Combine a top of the world support duo with these 3 cores and u have a fukin' team.
Is this a fan opinion? Do you really call ppy and pld a world class support duo based on their plays the last months since universe-secret to the TI6 secret?
1. Puppey+pie were the 2 best players in the world at the shanghai major even when cores were inconsistent. PLD lion king and Puppey undefeated on jungglers. puppey ench eviscerated Liquid. 2. First 7 valve events, Puppey 5 finals. Outside dendi, and a couple teammates, next closest player has 1/7 finals. 3. Secret was so desperate for good core play, they had to put Envy mid
On August 28 2016 04:22 common_cider wrote: w33 was kicked for immaturity. it got one veryone's nerves. They liked misery. source puppey interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HLeuq_ty0U
New lineup. Absolutely love it. We get 3 of the best core players in the world. These core players have accomplished top finishes without a world class support duo. Combine a top of the world support duo with these 3 cores and u have a fukin' team.
Is this a fan opinion? Do you really call ppy and pld a world class support duo based on their plays the last months since universe-secret to the TI6 secret?
1. Puppey+pie were the 2 best players in the world at the shanghai major even when cores were inconsistent. PLD lion king and Puppey undefeated on jungglers. puppey ench eviscerated Liquid. 2. First 7 valve events, Puppey 5 finals. Outside dendi, and a couple teammates, next closest player has 1/7 finals. 3. Secret was so desperate for good core play, they had to put Envy mid
And s4 was the best mid in the world at TI3 to fail miserably at TI4, and Suma1l went from the wonderboy from TI5 to suck badly because of "Icefrog's patch", and RTZ was the best carry in the world for a year not achieving even top 6 at any Valve event. Players playing for a team that does well usually look really well. Calling players "world class", "the best in the world", and any other exaggerated adjectives make those titles lose a lot of meaning. How many of the players that attended TI can you say they are not world class? 20%? If MP, Forev and MidOne are world class who in this TI wasn't? If less than half then is world class the proper adjective? I am not arguing each one of this cores performed better than Secret's former cores, I am just saying besides Bulba both three of them are at the same level (world class if you will) as EnVy and RTZ, they just performed better this time. Will Secret be better with this change, most probably because this last iteration had awful synergy even tho it was better than the one before.
EPT
