Hold up, I don't understand this. There's Donetsk separatists fighting separatists?
Just posted a comprehensive article on this on the previous page while you were typing. Basically, Kadyrov's forces have taken over from the local militia.
Any thoughts on why there aren't any new sanctions? It's clear that there has been a huge influx of tourists from Russia over the past couple weeks, yet the West isn't saying/doing anything.
I'll throw out some possibilities but I can't really understand Western passiveness. 1.) Maybe they don't know who to travel-ban/asset-freeze next and don't want to perform economic sanctions 2.) West is jaded or used to the conflict 3.) Elections happened, Ukraine is on the right course. 4.) Russia is "deescalating" by withdrawing some of it's troops (while allowing paramilitaries to enter.....). 5.) Waiting to see result of ATO 6.) Sanctions won't cause Russia to stop .... Or maybe they are going to give new sanctions but they haven't yet agreed to them?
The EU is too economically fragile to afford sanctions against Russia. Germany would suffer with the majority of its energy imports coming from russia as well as politically as a growing number of Germans are on russias side instead of the USA's.
On May 30 2014 05:56 Mc wrote: Any thoughts on why there aren't any new sanctions? It's clear that there has been a huge influx of tourists from Russia over the past couple weeks, yet the West isn't saying/doing anything.
I'll throw out some possibilities but I can't really understand Western passiveness. 1.) Maybe they don't know who to travel-ban/asset-freeze next and don't want to perform economic sanctions 2.) West is jaded or used to the conflict 3.) Elections happened, Ukraine is on the right course. 4.) Russia is "deescalating" by withdrawing some of it's troops (while allowing paramilitaries to enter.....). 5.) Waiting to see result of ATO 6.) Sanctions won't cause Russia to stop .... Or maybe they are going to give new sanctions but they haven't yet agreed to them?
Level 3 sanctions were tied to the elections being hindered. As Russia accepted the election result (or hasn't contradicted it outright) and Ukrainians accept Poroshenko, those sanctions will not enter into play.
As for the influx of Kadyrov's men, no-one has had tied to discuss or analyze the situation. Even the US hasn't really said anything much about it. I wouldn't expect talk of new sanctions (level 2 sanctions still) before next week.
On May 30 2014 06:00 Sermokala wrote: The EU is too economically fragile to afford sanctions against Russia. Germany would suffer with the majority of its energy imports coming from russia as well as politically as a growing number of Germans are on russias side instead of the USA's.
That argument has been proved untrue simply because there are already sanctions in place that made Putin back down (while he could have annexed the East). If the EU and US wanted they could crush Russia's economy with low to medium sized consequences for their economy (it would vary in the EU but the major power in EU are being depended on by Russia). Also Idk why you say Germans are more with Russia, it's based on nothing but your wild speculations (if they aren't just opinions). There isn't even a need, and there shouldn't be a need to be for Russia or the US, most Europeans think like that as Russia and the US have done so much shit in the past and the present (Russia more but arguable) that you can't defend them just for nationalism (or wathever feeling) sake.
On May 30 2014 06:00 Sermokala wrote: The EU is too economically fragile to afford sanctions against Russia. Germany would suffer with the majority of its energy imports coming from russia as well as politically as a growing number of Germans are on russias side instead of the USA's.
That argument has been proved untrue simply because there are already sanctions in place that made Putin back down (while he could have annexed the East). If the EU and US wanted they could crush Russia's economy with low to medium sized consequences for their economy (it would vary in the EU but the major power in EU are being depended on by Russia). Also Idk why you say Germans are more with Russia, it's based on nothing but your wild speculations (if they aren't just opinions). There isn't even a need, and there shouldn't be a need to be for Russia or the US, most Europeans think like that as Russia and the US have done so much shit in the past and the present (Russia more but arguable) that you can't defend them just for nationalism (or wathever feeling) sake.
Except people more knowledgeable has said that Russia does not want East Ukraine. He wants a shattered and divided Ukraine. Only took Crimea because of the Russian naval base there. The sanctions didn't stop the annexation of Crimea.
In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import
25% of german energy comes from Russian imports. If they were to sanction russia they wouldn't be able to keep their lights on and their economy (the one thats holding up the eurozone) would collapse overnight.
And to show just how much the EU has invested in russia
On May 30 2014 06:00 Sermokala wrote: The EU is too economically fragile to afford sanctions against Russia. Germany would suffer with the majority of its energy imports coming from russia as well as politically as a growing number of Germans are on russias side instead of the USA's.
Truly, the strangest thing to come out about situation in Ukraine is the number of people who seem to assert that to be against Russian policies is to be for American policies. Surely your world view is not so narrow as to view that the interests of people in a country that is neither ,wouldn't be for their own country, as opposed to America's or Russia's?
In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import
25% of german energy comes from Russian imports. If they were to sanction russia they wouldn't be able to keep their lights on and their economy (the one thats holding up the eurozone) would collapse overnight.
And to show just how much the EU has invested in russia
That's patently untrue. Here's an article about an EU analysis:
A secret European Union report has warned that economic and trade sanctions being considered against Russia over the Ukraine crisis could have a severe negative effect on Germany, the continent’s biggest economy.
The classified report, prepared by the European Commission and leaked to a local magazine, warned that the sanctions could slash forecast growth for the German economy this year by almost one per cent, moving the country closer to a downturn, with grim implications for a weak eurozone.
The report is one of a series prepared by Brussels estimating the costs of “far-reaching” sanctions against Russia for each of the EU’s member states, and distributed to governments in secret just before Easter.
“Governments have since responded to help the commission draw up a balanced programme of sanctions to ensure that particular countries, such as Germany, do not take on a disproportionate burden. This is very sensitive information of great interest to Russia and is top secret,” said a European diplomat.
The report considered the impacts of three different scenarios on European economies. It found that the harshest, in which sanctions were imposed on the import of Russian gas and oil, would cut expected growth for Germany’s GDP by 0.9 percentage points this year, and 0.3 percentage points next year. The European Commission’s most recent forecast is for German growth of 1.6 per cent this year and 2 per cent in 2015 amid a weak recovery as the eurozone emerges from crisis.
Sanctions on Russian energy exports are not being openly discussed at the moment. But the report warned that a second scenario, in which import bans were placed on other Russian products and Russian accounts in Europe were frozen, could still cause forecast growth to fall by 0.3 percentage points this year and a 0.1 percentage points in 2015.
The report warns that the longer-term effects on the German economy could be more serious, as the impact on eastern European economies affected their trade with Germany.
The report underlines why Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has been reluctant to support harsher sanctions over Ukraine, despite warning that the option of tougher sanctions must be kept open.
On Monday, European Union foreign ministers will consider adding 15 new Russian names and five companies with Crimea links to the sanctions list, following events in eastern Ukraine this weekend.
The change is meant to give a signal to Russian companies that there is no benefit to potentially getting involved in expropriation of Ukrainian companies in eastern Ukraine, where many of the country’s industrial assets are based. Source.
This is a good example why you need actual sources to back up what you're saying instead of taking numbers of wiki and making your own conjectures.
P.S. Mc, your link refers to an article that was posted on the previous page of this thread.
In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import
25% of german energy comes from Russian imports. If they were to sanction russia they wouldn't be able to keep their lights on and their economy (the one thats holding up the eurozone) would collapse overnight.
And to show just how much the EU has invested in russia
It hurts. please stop. How about simply reading about the consequences off the Georgia Crisis/War? The european reserves are so huge and the last winter was so warm, that there is simply nothing in this world turning off the european economy in a glimpse. In fact, Europe already offered to SELL gas to Ukraine in the worst case, because we have enough reserves for the entire year. And there are enough alternatives for Russian gas, but in any case of sanctions, both sides know that the Gas deals will be touched last, because both sides profit from them massively.
In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import
25% of german energy comes from Russian imports. If they were to sanction russia they wouldn't be able to keep their lights on and their economy (the one thats holding up the eurozone) would collapse overnight.
And to show just how much the EU has invested in russia
It hurts. please stop. How about simply reading about the consequences off the Georgia Crisis/War? The european reserves are so huge and the last winter was so warm, that there is simply nothing in this world turning off the european economy in a glimpse. In fact, Europe already offered to SELL gas to Ukraine in the worst case, because we have enough reserves for the entire year. And there are enough alternatives for Russian gas, but in any case of sanctions, both sides know that the Gas deals will be touched last, because both sides profit from them massively.
Liquified gas can be transported even if we dont have a full gas transport system in place for all of Europe. That means Germany can still import from northern Africa through Spain. And since that is a possibility, Russia cant up the prices masively, or just not sell the gas. Because they need the money, and they cant really sell to China just yet.
Brilliant analytic compendium about Russia by the European Counsil on Foreign Relations. Crucial background reading.
*** According to the SBU, the local militia now has Russian-made surveillance drones:
YIV, May 30 /Ukrinform/. An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that was shot down on May 28 in the area of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) was produced in Russia, the press center of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on Friday.
"According to preliminary expert findings, the device is one of the serial modifications of the Russian-made unmanned aerial vehicle Orlan-10 with the parachute landing system," the secret service said.
The SBU added that the Orlan-10 drone is part of the aerial reconnaissance, surveillance and monitoring system. It is used by government agencies in Russia, in particular, the Russian Defence Ministry as a reconnaissance aircraft capable of creating 3D terrain maps and manage progress of the battle. Depending on the modification and the module installed, the Orlan-10 can carry on board a thermal imager, camera, video camera, radio transmitter, repeater.
Currently the Russian drone undergoes technical and chemical expertise to identify a chemical substance found on board the UAV.
Great video on the incidents of Feb 20th in Kyiv. It isn't a conspiracy theory but a series of interviews with Berkut, alpha unit, the actual people who were being sniped, medics, widow. There is a lot of great first hand footage of the events.
Things to take away (besides the obvious tragedy of the day): *Lot's of footage of Berkut with sniper rifles, and automatic rifles. *There were pro-Yanukovych snipers on some buildings. *Both sides claim that there were snipers on Hotel Ukraine. *It appears that the Hotel Ukraine snipers could be some unknown third party, but nevertheless it seems clear that Berkut was also killing protestors.
In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import
25% of german energy comes from Russian imports. If they were to sanction russia they wouldn't be able to keep their lights on and their economy (the one thats holding up the eurozone) would collapse overnight.
And to show just how much the EU has invested in russia
It hurts. please stop. How about simply reading about the consequences off the Georgia Crisis/War? The european reserves are so huge and the last winter was so warm, that there is simply nothing in this world turning off the european economy in a glimpse. In fact, Europe already offered to SELL gas to Ukraine in the worst case, because we have enough reserves for the entire year. And there are enough alternatives for Russian gas, but in any case of sanctions, both sides know that the Gas deals will be touched last, because both sides profit from them massively.
Liquified gas can be transported even if we dont have a full gas transport system in place for all of Europe. That means Germany can still import from northern Africa through Spain. And since that is a possibility, Russia cant up the prices masively, or just not sell the gas. Because they need the money, and they cant really sell to China just yet.
Actually, Russia and China has signed a 30 year, $400 billion, gas deal about a week ago. It wass everywhere on the news like a week ago. It must be noted though that the cost for the gas is lower than in European countries.
In 2007, the European Union imported from Russia 185 million tonnes of crude oil, which accounted for 32.6% of total oil import, and 100.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent of natural gas, which accounted 38.7% of total gas import
25% of german energy comes from Russian imports. If they were to sanction russia they wouldn't be able to keep their lights on and their economy (the one thats holding up the eurozone) would collapse overnight.
And to show just how much the EU has invested in russia
It hurts. please stop. How about simply reading about the consequences off the Georgia Crisis/War? The european reserves are so huge and the last winter was so warm, that there is simply nothing in this world turning off the european economy in a glimpse. In fact, Europe already offered to SELL gas to Ukraine in the worst case, because we have enough reserves for the entire year. And there are enough alternatives for Russian gas, but in any case of sanctions, both sides know that the Gas deals will be touched last, because both sides profit from them massively.
Liquified gas can be transported even if we dont have a full gas transport system in place for all of Europe. That means Germany can still import from northern Africa through Spain. And since that is a possibility, Russia cant up the prices masively, or just not sell the gas. Because they need the money, and they cant really sell to China just yet.
Actually, Russia and China has signed a 30 year, $400 billion, gas deal about a week ago. It wass everywhere on the news like a week ago. It must be noted though that the cost for the gas is lower than in European countries.
That's why he said they can't sell to China yet. This will change in the future but as it stands right now Euro sanctions would impact Russia significantly.
TLDR: Currently Russia sells about 150 bilion cubic meteres of natural gas to Europe. Theres disonanse between what Russia says, and what is actually possible. In delivery shedule Gasprom says it will be selling about 12 billion in 2020 and 38 bilion when oparating at maximum capacity (God knows when). While significant it is still dwarfed by their sell to Europe. The far east pipline will be very expansive and operating with a loss for many many years.
TLDR:TLDR: Putin threats of rerouting gas to Asia are empty.
On May 31 2014 07:01 Mc wrote: Great video on the incidents of Feb 20th in Kyiv. It isn't a conspiracy theory but a series of interviews with Berkut, alpha unit, the actual people who were being sniped, medics, widow. There is a lot of great first hand footage of the events.
Things to take away (besides the obvious tragedy of the day): *Lot's of footage of Berkut with sniper rifles, and automatic rifles. *There were pro-Yanukovych snipers on some buildings. *Both sides claim that there were snipers on Hotel Ukraine. *It appears that the Hotel Ukraine snipers could be some unknown third party, but nevertheless it seems clear that Berkut was also killing protestors.
chief of investigative comission has already confirmed that the bullets were not berkut ammo, there's no forensic evidence connecting berkut to the killings. it was posted not long ago. the police were actual people who were being sniped as well. the police were even the actual people who were shot at first, according to same chief.
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.ukrinform.ua/files/news/eng/images/588/353/middle_acf153d2563c7a73940097fe3fe83765.jpg)
