US Politics Mega-thread - Page 8463

On August 17 2017 13:48 mozoku wrote:


I brought up Bayes because a stereotype is an informal prior for a person. When there is pre-existing precise language developed for having this discussion, it improves the discussion to make use of it. I didn't bring it up because it's "cool."

I never made the claim that race was a strong predictor of violence on trains. In fact, I even acknowledged it was very weak in my post ("the probability of being the victim of a crime is still low"). My point was merely to demonstrate that stereotypes have predictive power in character as well as Mahjong skill prediction. Even if skin color isn't the cause (and it certainly isn't), it has predictive power because it correlates with factors such as socioeconomic status, culture, etc., and that information often isn't known in real world situations. This is where the issue of racism gets tricky. Using the predictive utility of skin color isn't necessarily racist imo; attaching an irrationally strong prior (based on skin color because it's usually the first thing you see about someone) and not conditioning effectively on a person's actions is evidence of an actual racist. Of course, this is from a pure predictive utility perspective. In reality, most people have some sense of moral obligation and probably actively work to widen their prior (i.e. "reduce their bias" in common lingo). However, it's necessarily a trade-off in the sense that actively working to widen your prior for the exclusive purpose of fairness (what is promoted by "social progressives"), while noble, necessarily reduces predictive utility. Note that this doesn't mean that people don't often widen their priors from simply learning more (e.g. maybe spending more time around a certain race and realizing their prior was too narrow)--obviously, this is a best case outcome when it happens.

The apparent current progressive "correct" prior is a totally flat (uninformative) prior, which I believe to be silly. To be clear, a flat prior would be to claim that a random Chinese and a random white person have an equal chance in a game of Mahjong. If you acknowledge that skin color on a train has any predictive power for crimes in the case where you lack any other information about the person (which is a fairly realistic assumption for strangers on a train... you might be able to see their facial expression, mannerisms, and clothing but that's really about it [and all of those are also correlated with race anyway]), then you're acknowledging that stereotypes about people's skin color have some predictive utility in terms of character (if you accept propensity to commit crime as an indicator of character, which is admittedly an argument of its own).

If you recall, the original point was that the word "racist" has become diluted. My argument is that "racist" has been broadened to include "people who harbor stereotypes", which is a rather ridiculous definition as I argued above--as stereotypes are not necessarily "bad", and can increase utility.

[I should also note that I argued that the term "racist" has been diluted because it is used by social progressives to defend socially progressive policies from people who agree that diversity is good, but disagree with the progressives on the merits of current socially progressive policy (e.g. probably Damore imo). But we're not discussing that argument here.]

Also keep in mind that I'm only making arguments that demonstrate the existence of the "stereotype utility" phenomenon here. Stereotypes are employed hundreds (if not thousands) of times each day by everyone. It's literally impossible to argue what stereotypes are appropriate for each and every situation, so an argument of existence is going to have to make do if we're keeping this discussion general. Obviously, the magnitude of the "stereotype utility" is going to vary drastically from case to case, so making arguments about it in a general discussion makes little sense. In the train scenario, the "stereotype utility" is obviously small, as I've acknowledged in all my posts. In the Mahjong example, the "stereotype utility" is larger.

If I'm sitting on a train car with 5 African Americans from the South Side of Chicago, I can observe that I'm x times more likely to be the victim of a crime than if I were sitting among five random members of the general US population. Therefore, I feel more threatened on this train car.

It's literally the same example as Mahjong, but now it's politically sensitive. No, it's not fair to the African Americans on the train. And I would be irrational to assume I'll likely be the victim of a crime on that train, since base crime rates are very low. But I'm still logically and mathematically justified in feeling more threatened on that train car than I would with 5 other random US citizens.

On August 17 2017 14:29 IgnE wrote:


Let's go back to your original statement:


This is an absurdity meant to prove I don't know what. You've reduced the 5 African Americans from the South Side of Chicago to a relatively limited set of variables based entirely on race and an arbitrarily selected geographic region. Are these individuals 90 years old? Maybe they are returning from south side bingo night. Oh, you assumed you were talking about Young Black Males. Are they wearing ties and carrying The New World Translation of the Holy Bible? Are they in their mid 40s and tired, carrying bags of groceries home? Do you think a 40 something restaurant manager carrying groceries and a gaggle of older women with grey hairs still presents a greater risk than "5 other random US citizens?" What's the crime rate for 50 year old black person of either gender compared to 18-25 white unemployed white male? How do you identify an unemployed person? What color is your skin? If you are white are you more or less likely to be killed by a black man per capita or a white man per capita? Are you an old woman or are you a man in a police uniform? How many members of the public do you think know any accurate statistics on any of the questions I asked?

You think being racist sometimes yields utility, and you'd really appreciate it if everyone would stop calling people racist who are racist only sometimes, especially when they were right about it.

I'd ask you to offer some real-life examples but I know that you are so far deep in abstraction land that you've lost touch with how stereotypes operate in reality, where one datapoint (skin color) swamps all the other uncountable sensory datapoints that we receive during basic, short interactions with people. People aren't actuaries with sets of data in their interactions.

On August 17 2017 14:29 IgnE wrote:


Let's go back to your original statement:


This is an absurdity meant to prove I don't know what. You've reduced the 5 African Americans from the South Side of Chicago to a relatively limited set of variables based entirely on race and an arbitrarily selected geographic region. Are these individuals 90 years old? Maybe they are returning from south side bingo night. Oh, you assumed you were talking about Young Black Males. Are they wearing ties and carrying The New World Translation of the Holy Bible? Are they in their mid 40s and tired, carrying bags of groceries home? Do you think a 40 something restaurant manager carrying groceries and a gaggle of older women with grey hairs still presents a greater risk than "5 other random US citizens?" What's the crime rate for 50 year old black person of either gender compared to 18-25 white unemployed white male? How do you identify an unemployed person? What color is your skin? If you are white are you more or less likely to be killed by a black man per capita or a white man per capita? Are you an old woman or are you a man in a police uniform? How many members of the public do you think know any accurate statistics on any of the questions I asked?

You think being racist sometimes yields utility, and you'd really appreciate it if everyone would stop calling people racist who are racist only sometimes, especially when they were right about it.

I'd ask you to offer some real-life examples but I know that you are so far deep in abstraction land that you've lost touch with how stereotypes operate in reality, where one datapoint (skin color) swamps all the other uncountable sensory datapoints that we receive during basic, short interactions with people. People aren't actuaries with sets of data in their interactions.

On August 17 2017 14:29 IgnE wrote:


Let's go back to your original statement:


This is an absurdity meant to prove I don't know what. You've reduced the 5 African Americans from the South Side of Chicago to a relatively limited set of variables based entirely on race and an arbitrarily selected geographic region. Are these individuals 90 years old? Maybe they are returning from south side bingo night. Oh, you assumed you were talking about Young Black Males. Are they wearing ties and carrying The New World Translation of the Holy Bible? Are they in their mid 40s and tired, carrying bags of groceries home? Do you think a 40 something restaurant manager carrying groceries and a gaggle of older women with grey hairs still presents a greater risk than "5 other random US citizens?" What's the crime rate for 50 year old black person of either gender compared to 18-25 white unemployed white male? How do you identify an unemployed person? What color is your skin? If you are white are you more or less likely to be killed by a black man per capita or a white man per capita? Are you an old woman or are you a man in a police uniform? How many members of the public do you think know any accurate statistics on any of the questions I asked?

You think being racist sometimes yields utility, and you'd really appreciate it if everyone would stop calling people racist who are racist only sometimes, especially when they were right about it.

I'd ask you to offer some real-life examples but I know that you are so far deep in abstraction land that you've lost touch with how stereotypes operate in reality, where one datapoint (skin color) swamps all the other uncountable sensory datapoints that we receive during basic, short interactions with people. People aren't actuaries with sets of data in their interactions.

On August 17 2017 14:29 IgnE wrote:


Let's go back to your original statement:


This is an absurdity meant to prove I don't know what. You've reduced the 5 African Americans from the South Side of Chicago to a relatively limited set of variables based entirely on race and an arbitrarily selected geographic region. Are these individuals 90 years old? Maybe they are returning from south side bingo night. Oh, you assumed you were talking about Young Black Males. Are they wearing ties and carrying The New World Translation of the Holy Bible? Are they in their mid 40s and tired, carrying bags of groceries home? Do you think a 40 something restaurant manager carrying groceries and a gaggle of older women with grey hairs still presents a greater risk than "5 other random US citizens?" What's the crime rate for 50 year old black person of either gender compared to 18-25 white unemployed white male? How do you identify an unemployed person? What color is your skin? If you are white are you more or less likely to be killed by a black man per capita or a white man per capita? Are you an old woman or are you a man in a police uniform? How many members of the public do you think know any accurate statistics on any of the questions I asked?

You think being racist sometimes yields utility, and you'd really appreciate it if everyone would stop calling people racist who are racist only sometimes, especially when they were right about it.

I'd ask you to offer some real-life examples but I know that you are so far deep in abstraction land that you've lost touch with how stereotypes operate in reality, where one datapoint (skin color) swamps all the other uncountable sensory datapoints that we receive during basic, short interactions with people. People aren't actuaries with sets of data in their interactions.

On August 17 2017 23:39 mozoku wrote:

One of the issues I'm having with what you keep doing is that you never actually attempt to outline what "racism" is. I'm assuming you're of the opinion that the Mahjong scenario is not racist, but the train scenario is. But what is the difference between the train scenario and the Mahjong scenario? If you don't want the term "racist" to be diluted, you need a commonly understood definition for "racism" and only use the term when it meets that definition. Instead, we have a status quo where racism is functionally defined as a "you know it when you see it" thing, which, of course, is a total mess in practice.

Earlier in this discussion, I was accused of having a racist analysis for having allegedly incorrect facts (I disagreed, but that's irrelevant)--when I think it was clear to all sides that there was no intent to be racist. In that case, "you know it when you see it" led to "alleged factual inaccuracy = racist." Now in this discussion, you're asserting (see bold) that using a stereotype as a prior is racist (i.e. having stereotypes = racist). Even though, using a stereotype in the Mahjong scenario was not racist.

If this happens in a discussion literally about the dilution of the word "racist" (where you'd expect people to be particularly careful), how can you assert that people are more careful in conversations where they have political motives to slander their opponents as a racist and no incentive to be careful about how they use the term?


You're muddling definitions again. If a stereotype is a prior, then it only swamps all other sensory datapoints when the prior is extremely strong. I've already said that having an irrationally strong prior based on skin color and not conditioning on new data effectively is arguably what defines a racist. You're going back to the classic Frequentist point that "priors are sometimes misapplied, therefore they shouldn't be used." Which I disagree with. If priors are sometimes misapplied, the solution is to be aware, disciplined, and critical of your priors (i.e. be informed and challenge your beliefs). It isn't to stick your head in the sand and apply a flat prior to everything (i.e. assigning equal probability of winning to both players in the Mahjong scenario).

On August 17 2017 14:29 IgnE wrote:


Let's go back to your original statement:


This is an absurdity meant to prove I don't know what. You've reduced the 5 African Americans from the South Side of Chicago to a relatively limited set of variables based entirely on race and an arbitrarily selected geographic region. Are these individuals 90 years old? Maybe they are returning from south side bingo night. Oh, you assumed you were talking about Young Black Males. Are they wearing ties and carrying The New World Translation of the Holy Bible? Are they in their mid 40s and tired, carrying bags of groceries home? Do you think a 40 something restaurant manager carrying groceries and a gaggle of older women with grey hairs still presents a greater risk than "5 other random US citizens?" What's the crime rate for 50 year old black person of either gender compared to 18-25 white unemployed white male? How do you identify an unemployed person? What color is your skin? If you are white are you more or less likely to be killed by a black man per capita or a white man per capita? Are you an old woman or are you a man in a police uniform? How many members of the public do you think know any accurate statistics on any of the questions I asked?

You think being racist sometimes yields utility, and you'd really appreciate it if everyone would stop calling people racist who are racist only sometimes, especially when they were right about it.

I'd ask you to offer some real-life examples but I know that you are so far deep in abstraction land that you've lost touch with how stereotypes operate in reality, where one datapoint (skin color) swamps all the other uncountable sensory datapoints that we receive during basic, short interactions with people. People aren't actuaries with sets of data in their interactions.

On August 17 2017 14:29 IgnE wrote:


Let's go back to your original statement:


This is an absurdity meant to prove I don't know what. You've reduced the 5 African Americans from the South Side of Chicago to a relatively limited set of variables based entirely on race and an arbitrarily selected geographic region. Are these individuals 90 years old? Maybe they are returning from south side bingo night. Oh, you assumed you were talking about Young Black Males. Are they wearing ties and carrying The New World Translation of the Holy Bible? Are they in their mid 40s and tired, carrying bags of groceries home? Do you think a 40 something restaurant manager carrying groceries and a gaggle of older women with grey hairs still presents a greater risk than "5 other random US citizens?" What's the crime rate for 50 year old black person of either gender compared to 18-25 white unemployed white male? How do you identify an unemployed person? What color is your skin? If you are white are you more or less likely to be killed by a black man per capita or a white man per capita? Are you an old woman or are you a man in a police uniform? How many members of the public do you think know any accurate statistics on any of the questions I asked?

You think being racist sometimes yields utility, and you'd really appreciate it if everyone would stop calling people racist who are racist only sometimes, especially when they were right about it.

I'd ask you to offer some real-life examples but I know that you are so far deep in abstraction land that you've lost touch with how stereotypes operate in reality, where one datapoint (skin color) swamps all the other uncountable sensory datapoints that we receive during basic, short interactions with people. People aren't actuaries with sets of data in their interactions.

On August 17 2017 23:39 mozoku wrote:

One of the issues I'm having with what you keep doing is that you never actually attempt to outline what "racism" is. I'm assuming you're of the opinion that the Mahjong scenario is not racist, but the train scenario is. But what is the difference between the train scenario and the Mahjong scenario? If you don't want the term "racist" to be diluted, you need a commonly understood definition for "racism" and only use the term when it meets that definition. Instead, we have a status quo where racism is functionally defined as a "you know it when you see it" thing, which, of course, is a total mess in practice.

Earlier in this discussion, I was accused of having a racist analysis for having allegedly incorrect facts (I disagreed, but that's irrelevant)--when I think it was clear to all sides that there was no intent to be racist. In that case, "you know it when you see it" led to "alleged factual inaccuracy = racist." Now in this discussion, you're asserting (see bold) that using a stereotype as a prior is racist (i.e. having stereotypes = racist). Even though, using a stereotype in the Mahjong scenario was not racist.

If this happens in a discussion literally about the dilution of the word "racist" (where you'd expect people to be particularly careful), how can you assert that people are more careful in conversations where they have political motives to slander their opponents as a racist and no incentive to be careful about how they use the term?


You're muddling definitions again. If a stereotype is a prior, then it only swamps all other sensory datapoints when the prior is extremely strong. I've already said that having an irrationally strong prior based on skin color and not conditioning on new data effectively is arguably what defines a racist. You're going back to the classic Frequentist point that "priors are sometimes misapplied, therefore they shouldn't be used." Which I disagree with. If priors are sometimes misapplied, the solution is to be aware, disciplined, and critical of your priors (i.e. be informed and challenge your beliefs). It isn't to stick your head in the sand and apply a flat prior to everything (i.e. assigning equal probability of winning to both players in the Mahjong scenario).

On August 18 2017 01:47 IgnE wrote:


or the solution is to use non-racist priors. if you come up to me in tattered clothes without shoes and without having showered for several days there are several priors there, none of them race-based, that condition my response. as ive said repeatedly, how you decide which information to condition your prior is always unjustifiable and faith-based. choosing to use race to condition your prior is racist. i expect you'll say something like "ideally you include all the data," at which point i say, get real, thats not how stereotypes work, the whole premise here was that it's an efficiency shortcut, and then you waffle around a bit with more abstractions while accusing me of conflating definitions etc.

luckily i am not a proponent of thought crime so in your mahjong scenario its not a big deal to keep your thoughts on the likelihood of who is a better mahjong player to yourself. but if you went up and said, "hey i bet you could beat this white person here at mahjong," you'd be doing something racist. likewise if you got on the train in chicago and treated a bunch of black people going about their business like potential criminals you'd be doing something racist (and irrational).

On August 18 2017 01:47 IgnE wrote:


or the solution is to use non-racist priors. if you come up to me in tattered clothes without shoes and without having showered for several days there are several priors there, none of them race-based, that condition my response. as ive said repeatedly, how you decide which information to condition your prior is always unjustifiable and faith-based. choosing to use race to condition your prior is racist. i expect you'll say something like "ideally you include all the data," at which point i say, get real, thats not how stereotypes work, the whole premise here was that it's an efficiency shortcut, and then you waffle around a bit with more abstractions while accusing me of conflating definitions etc.

luckily i am not a proponent of thought crime so in your mahjong scenario its not a big deal to keep your thoughts on the likelihood of who is a better mahjong player to yourself. but if you went up and said, "hey i bet you could beat this white person here at mahjong," you'd be doing something racist. likewise if you got on the train in chicago and treated a bunch of black people going about their business like potential criminals you'd be doing something racist (and irrational).

On August 18 2017 01:47 IgnE wrote:


or the solution is to use non-racist priors. if you come up to me in tattered clothes without shoes and without having showered for several days there are several priors there, none of them race-based, that condition my response. as ive said repeatedly, how you decide which information to condition your prior is always unjustifiable and faith-based. choosing to use race to condition your prior is racist. i expect you'll say something like "ideally you include all the data," at which point i say, get real, thats not how stereotypes work, the whole premise here was that it's an efficiency shortcut, and then you waffle around a bit with more abstractions while accusing me of conflating definitions etc.

luckily i am not a proponent of thought crime so in your mahjong scenario its not a big deal to keep your thoughts on the likelihood of who is a better mahjong player to yourself. but if you went up and said, "hey i bet you could beat this white person here at mahjong," you'd be doing something racist. likewise if you got on the train in chicago and treated a bunch of black people going about their business like potential criminals you'd be doing something racist (and irrational).