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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On April 11 2017 23:46 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote: California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/tsla%20piper.jpg) Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago. Well, they can't really. I'm not sure how it works, but the whole idea of a subprime mortgage is that while you won't be able to pay it back, you still own the house which is worth the value of your mortgage, so the bank "doesn't lose anything" because worst-case scenario, they sell the house and recover the money (until the housing market stagnated, at which point they were fucked). However, with car loans they can't do that. The car cannot be collateral against the loan: either the bank does their homework, or they have to write off the loan, as there is no way to sell a used car to recover the costs. Unless people have used their home as collateral to get a loan to buy a car, in which case this is heading straight for the shitter again. Can't wait for people to get put out of their homes because they couldn't repay their carloans... Almost every single automobile purchased in the U.S. using some kind of financing, even used cars, will be encumbered by a security interest retained by the financier. When the lessee or purchaser defaults on their financing obligations, the owner of the security interest can repossess and sell the vehicle and then sue the lessee/purchaser for the remaining value of the contract/purchase agreement minus the money made via selling the repossessed car (plus incidental damages [i.e. cost of storing the car during lead to repo sale] depending on the circumstances). Typically, courts require that the aggrieved repossessor mitigate their damages via sale of the encumbered item in order to pursue the full range of damages.
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On April 11 2017 22:08 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote: California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/tsla%20piper.jpg) Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. I'm in the Denver metro area, where real estate prices have climbed 10%+ per year over each of the past several years. My initial thought was that there was going to be a big adjustment in the near future, but now I'm not so sure. There are too many people moving out here and not enough houses being built to keep up with demand. Absent a major market correction at the national level, prices really don't have anywhere to go but up. And even then, the market correction won't matter that much in the long term as long as you're sufficiently capitalized to ride it out. Long term, prices will continue to appreciate unless you're living somewhere where people are fleeing the community.
You might be right there. I'm from the suburbs about half an hour from Seattle. My parents house is worth about 2x as much as what it was when they bought it 10 years ago, and the entire area around their neighborhood is being flooded with new houses that are being filled as soon as they're ready, so much so they had to build new schools to accommodate all the new people moving into the area. My friends are now buying their first homes and paying 300-400k for basically either a tiny house with a tiny backyard/garage or having to buy a slightly bigger small house in a crappy area. But I guess unless there are major foreclosures the housing market won't really crash because of the large demand. Although I do hope it does so that me and my fiance can capitalize on it and get some good real estate for less.
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housing costs have been rising in many areas due to restrictive zoning laws limiting the ability to make new housing. this also leads to a problem wherein it's very hard for younger folk to afford a ohuse at all, cuz the prices get quite inflated. the median multiple (that is the cost of the house divided by typical annual income in the area) has been rising a lot in many places for decades now. There's a nice report by Demographia on the topic if anyone wants to read something more detailed.
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Climate change is not a partisan issue. It’s a national and global security issue.
When people are forced from their homes because of drought, they end up as refugees in other areas. This puts a strain on the systems of those who take in refugees. The new people feel marginalized as the old residents feel threatened. That may lead to anger and the susceptibility to radicalization of the refugees.
All because they didn't have enough rain to grow food.
Retired Brigadier General Dr. Stephen Xenakis says that's one scenario that makes climate change a threat to national security. War plays a part in the displacement of refugees, as we have seen in Syria. Any disruption that leads to personal insecurity will lead to global insecurity.
“There are many factors that lead to terrorism," he said, "There are many factors that lead people to do these kinds of violent acts and threaten our country. One of the major factors is how their communities are destabilized.”
He called climate change a "multiplier." It may not be the factor but is one of the several factors that lead to instability. He said when people can't accomplish the simplest parts of life like providing food, shelter and safety for themselves and their family they become desperate.
“When we do our planning and think about what we need to do to keep our country safe and secure, we should keep in mind that the best we can do to sustain people’s communities and support their livelihood can be a major factor in helping us and our national security,” he said.
And General Xenakis is not alone. He's part of a group of former military people, current military leaders, government officials and academics who are warning about the intersection of issues such as climate, energy, and space with U.S. national security.
That group landed in Las Vegas recently, to tour the state's two Air Force bases, and give a talk on how climate change affects the security of our state.
Dr. Maureen McCarthy warns that Nevada is already seeing the effects of climate change, and warns that unless we adapt, the state could see instability of its own.
She points to major floods in the Elko this year, along with several feet of snow in the Reno/Tahoe area. She compares that with the growing bathtub ring at Lake Mead.
"It's getting hotter, and it will continue to get hotter in Nevada." she said.
She's thinking a bump of between five and 10 degrees Fahrenheit on average.
Dr. McCarthy, who is currently a senior researcher in physics at UNR and the Desert Research Institute, says that what we have to worry about is climate extremes.
It won't just get steadily five or 10 degrees hotter, she says. We might experience a few years of 20 degrees higher, then a few with lots of snow, rain, floods and cooler temperatures.
This, she says, will lead to disruption.
"That average is going to come from much more extremes - very low years followed by very high years. Unstable communities, whether they are here in the U.S. or abroad, they are a source of instability," McCarthy said.
Source
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On April 11 2017 23:52 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 23:46 Acrofales wrote:On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote: California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/tsla%20piper.jpg) Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago. Well, they can't really. I'm not sure how it works, but the whole idea of a subprime mortgage is that while you won't be able to pay it back, you still own the house which is worth the value of your mortgage, so the bank "doesn't lose anything" because worst-case scenario, they sell the house and recover the money (until the housing market stagnated, at which point they were fucked). However, with car loans they can't do that. The car cannot be collateral against the loan: either the bank does their homework, or they have to write off the loan, as there is no way to sell a used car to recover the costs. Unless people have used their home as collateral to get a loan to buy a car, in which case this is heading straight for the shitter again. Can't wait for people to get put out of their homes because they couldn't repay their carloans... Almost every single automobile purchased in the U.S. using some kind of financing, even used cars, will be encumbered by a security interest retained by the financier. When the lessee or purchaser defaults on their financing obligations, the owner of the security interest can repossess and sell the vehicle and then sue the lessee/purchaser for the remaining value of the contract/purchase agreement minus the money made via selling the repossessed car (plus incidental damages [i.e. cost of storing the car during lead to repo sale] depending on the circumstances). Typically, courts require that the aggrieved repossessor mitigate their damages via sale of the encumbered item in order to pursue the full range of damages.
i think the point acro was making (you are 100% correct on the loan stuff) is that cars lose value much faster than homes generally so that in case of a house as collateral, the collateral is typically going to have FMV greater than the outstanding loan (mortgage) principal + other debts. on the other hand, a car depreciates pretty quick so you end with FMV less than the owed amount when a default happens. that's where risk and interest rates come in.
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On April 11 2017 23:47 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 23:42 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 23:40 a_flayer wrote: Perhaps the US shouldn't get a say in whether Syria allows Russia to have a naval base in their own sovereign country. Perhaps the US ended WW2 and is largely blamed for the world's problems simply because of the fact that they are tasked with managing everyone so things like WW2 don't happen again. No world wars since the US took the wheel. Its easy to be cynical and tell the US to piss off, but the US not pissing off is the only thing that made Europe and other areas stop being shit heads. You can appreciate the good aspects of US hegemony (no world wars) without also acknowledging that they're a big part of why the Middle East and Africa look the way they do.
I suppose my larger point is: Sure, we done goofed. Especially in the middle east. But considering the massive task the US is trying to pull off, the benefits we have had, even with it being shitty in certain times and certain places. While I am in no way an expert, I can't help but wonder if the middle east as collateral damage still ended up being a net positive for the entire world order. And I can't help but wonder if shitting on the middle east was necessary to end up with the structure we currently have in place. And I use necessary and similar terms in a reasonable, situational way. Not that it was technically impossible for the middle east to get shitty. I just imagine out of all the different plans, the ones we used were the best by their understanding.
If I may make an analogy: Parents. Did your parents end up fucking up a bit, giving you various insecurities and complexes? Sure, all parents emotionally fuck up their kids and hurt their future in some way. But you also ended up going to college, living a happy life and generally being successful. Did the parent fuck up? Sure, it wasn't a perfect performance. But sometimes shit is really hard and people make mistakes and when someone is managing 1 or more other people's lives, some stuff is gonna go bad and some stuff is gonna fall through the cracks. Certainly a lot better than letting the kids raise themselves.
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Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call, whether Assad is part of that or not.
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On April 12 2017 00:02 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 23:52 farvacola wrote:On April 11 2017 23:46 Acrofales wrote:On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote: California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/tsla%20piper.jpg) Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago. Well, they can't really. I'm not sure how it works, but the whole idea of a subprime mortgage is that while you won't be able to pay it back, you still own the house which is worth the value of your mortgage, so the bank "doesn't lose anything" because worst-case scenario, they sell the house and recover the money (until the housing market stagnated, at which point they were fucked). However, with car loans they can't do that. The car cannot be collateral against the loan: either the bank does their homework, or they have to write off the loan, as there is no way to sell a used car to recover the costs. Unless people have used their home as collateral to get a loan to buy a car, in which case this is heading straight for the shitter again. Can't wait for people to get put out of their homes because they couldn't repay their carloans... Almost every single automobile purchased in the U.S. using some kind of financing, even used cars, will be encumbered by a security interest retained by the financier. When the lessee or purchaser defaults on their financing obligations, the owner of the security interest can repossess and sell the vehicle and then sue the lessee/purchaser for the remaining value of the contract/purchase agreement minus the money made via selling the repossessed car (plus incidental damages [i.e. cost of storing the car during lead to repo sale] depending on the circumstances). Typically, courts require that the aggrieved repossessor mitigate their damages via sale of the encumbered item in order to pursue the full range of damages. i think the point acro was making (you are 100% correct on the loan stuff) is that cars lose value much faster than homes generally so that in case of a house as collateral, the collateral is typically going to have FMV greater than the outstanding loan (mortgage) principal + other debts. on the other hand, a car depreciates pretty quick so you end with FMV less than the owed amount when a default happens. that's where risk and interest rates come in. In that sense most definitely, mortgages and real property debt management generally implicate a very unique set of concerns that don't crop up anywhere else in the economy. Most consumer goods have relatively predictable and narrow transactional circumstances that don't give way to the sort of prospecting that dominates real estate.
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On April 11 2017 23:52 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 23:46 Acrofales wrote:On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote: California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/tsla%20piper.jpg) Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago. Well, they can't really. I'm not sure how it works, but the whole idea of a subprime mortgage is that while you won't be able to pay it back, you still own the house which is worth the value of your mortgage, so the bank "doesn't lose anything" because worst-case scenario, they sell the house and recover the money (until the housing market stagnated, at which point they were fucked). However, with car loans they can't do that. The car cannot be collateral against the loan: either the bank does their homework, or they have to write off the loan, as there is no way to sell a used car to recover the costs. Unless people have used their home as collateral to get a loan to buy a car, in which case this is heading straight for the shitter again. Can't wait for people to get put out of their homes because they couldn't repay their carloans... Almost every single automobile purchased in the U.S. using some kind of financing, even used cars, will be encumbered by a security interest retained by the financier. When the lessee or purchaser defaults on their financing obligations, the owner of the security interest can repossess and sell the vehicle and then sue the lessee/purchaser for the remaining value of the contract/purchase agreement minus the money made via selling the repossessed car (plus incidental damages [i.e. cost of storing the car during lead to repo sale] depending on the circumstances). Typically, courts require that the aggrieved repossessor mitigate their damages via sale of the encumbered item in order to pursue the full range of damages. Ok, so it depends on bankruptcy laws whether people can lose their homes if they default on carloans. Not a great place to be as an individual, but from a bank point of view, such loans are far higher risk than even subprime mortgages, so presumably they are dealt with differently, and are far less prone to cause serious issues for the banks, and instead will impact individuals. It takes a hell of a lot of individuals (consumers) to be sufficiently impacted for this to have an impact on the economy as a whole, whereas an adjustment of the housing market was what caused all banks to suddenly get fucked (basically due to a false belief that "housing prices will never go down" and some very hinky bookkeeping based on that belief), which in turn caused the economic collapse almost overnight.
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On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call. Because if we end up going to war again there's bound to be a regime put into place that will dance to that tune.
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On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call, whether Assad is part of that or not.
Because the US is the undisputed king of the earth and has been for a long time. You're being intentionally dense here. The US calls the shots and they call the shots for a reason.
Remember how your parents told you what to eat and when to go to bed? That's what parents do.
EDIT: If I may mildly shitpost in the spoiler below:
+ Show Spoiler +
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United States42024 Posts
On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call. This is a loaded question which betrays your own limited assumptions. There is no such thing as should. You seem to be attempting the argument that the Syrian Parliament should get to decide and that the United States should not. If you wish to make that argument then do it properly. Start with Thomas Hobbes, work through the rights of all men to decide their own fate free of interference, make the leap from that the creation of a Republic containing elements of democracy and see if you can string the Syrian Parliament to natural law with an unbroken chain. If you can't, there is no should. Also if you don't accept natural law as a concept then there is no should.
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On April 12 2017 00:07 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 23:52 farvacola wrote:On April 11 2017 23:46 Acrofales wrote:On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote: California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/tsla%20piper.jpg) Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago. Well, they can't really. I'm not sure how it works, but the whole idea of a subprime mortgage is that while you won't be able to pay it back, you still own the house which is worth the value of your mortgage, so the bank "doesn't lose anything" because worst-case scenario, they sell the house and recover the money (until the housing market stagnated, at which point they were fucked). However, with car loans they can't do that. The car cannot be collateral against the loan: either the bank does their homework, or they have to write off the loan, as there is no way to sell a used car to recover the costs. Unless people have used their home as collateral to get a loan to buy a car, in which case this is heading straight for the shitter again. Can't wait for people to get put out of their homes because they couldn't repay their carloans... Almost every single automobile purchased in the U.S. using some kind of financing, even used cars, will be encumbered by a security interest retained by the financier. When the lessee or purchaser defaults on their financing obligations, the owner of the security interest can repossess and sell the vehicle and then sue the lessee/purchaser for the remaining value of the contract/purchase agreement minus the money made via selling the repossessed car (plus incidental damages [i.e. cost of storing the car during lead to repo sale] depending on the circumstances). Typically, courts require that the aggrieved repossessor mitigate their damages via sale of the encumbered item in order to pursue the full range of damages. Ok, so it depends on bankruptcy laws whether people can lose their homes if they default on carloans. Not a great place to be as an individual, but from a bank point of view, such loans are far higher risk than even subprime mortgages, so presumably they are dealt with differently, and are far less prone to cause serious issues for the banks, and instead will impact individuals. It takes a hell of a lot of individuals (consumers) to be sufficiently impacted for this to have an impact on the economy as a whole, whereas an adjustment of the housing market was what caused all banks to suddenly get fucked (basically due to a false belief that "housing prices will never go down" and some very hinky bookkeeping based on that belief), which in turn caused the economic collapse almost overnight. Assuming that we're in chapter 7 (as folks in 13 aren't gonna lose their home nor be there on car debts), an individual debtor will almost never lose their home due to car debt, though bankruptcy is a game of fringe occurrences so it isn't inconceivable that someone could borrow on cars so heavy that a court is willing to kill their homestead exemption. In any case, I was more speaking on security interests in cars generally than the fucked up relationship between banks and real estate, so no disagreement from me on the latter front.
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On April 12 2017 00:11 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call. This is a loaded question which betrays your own limited assumptions. There is no such thing as should. You seem to be attempting the argument that the Syrian Parliament should get to decide and that the United States should not. If you wish to make that argument then do it properly. Start with Thomas Hobbes, work through the rights of all men to decide their own fate free of interference, make the leap from that the creation of a Republic containing elements of democracy and see if you can string the Syrian Parliament to natural law with an unbroken chain. If you can't, there is no should. Also if you don't accept natural law as a concept then there is no should. I certainly have no idea what you're talking about regarding natural law and Thomas Hobbes. Perhaps I should have quoted Mohdoo. My question/statement was in response to what he said.
On April 11 2017 23:37 Mohdoo wrote:t_d on suicide watch: Syria’s Government ‘Coming to an End,’ Tillerson Warns Before Russia TripShow nested quote +LUCCA, Italy — Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said on Tuesday that the reign of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was “coming to an end” and warned that Russia was at risk of becoming irrelevant in the Middle East by continuing to support him.
Mr. Tillerson, in comments made just before he traveled to Moscow for a high-stakes summit meeting, sought to clear up the United States’ position on Syria while also declaring that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia needed to choose whether to side with Mr. Assad or the West. After TL educating on me on Russia's stake in Syria (naval base), I can't help but wonder what Russia has to gain by letting Assad get booted. I can't imagine a situation where the US allows Russia to keep their naval base there, right? Or perhaps we do? Syria should allow the naval base or refuse it. I don't understand what would be controversial about that kind of reasoning.
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On April 12 2017 00:21 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 00:11 KwarK wrote:On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call. This is a loaded question which betrays your own limited assumptions. There is no such thing as should. You seem to be attempting the argument that the Syrian Parliament should get to decide and that the United States should not. If you wish to make that argument then do it properly. Start with Thomas Hobbes, work through the rights of all men to decide their own fate free of interference, make the leap from that the creation of a Republic containing elements of democracy and see if you can string the Syrian Parliament to natural law with an unbroken chain. If you can't, there is no should. Also if you don't accept natural law as a concept then there is no should. I certainly have no idea what you're talking about regarding natural law and Thomas Hobbes. Perhaps I should have quoted Mohdoo. My question/statement was in response to what he said. Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 23:37 Mohdoo wrote:t_d on suicide watch: Syria’s Government ‘Coming to an End,’ Tillerson Warns Before Russia TripLUCCA, Italy — Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said on Tuesday that the reign of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was “coming to an end” and warned that Russia was at risk of becoming irrelevant in the Middle East by continuing to support him.
Mr. Tillerson, in comments made just before he traveled to Moscow for a high-stakes summit meeting, sought to clear up the United States’ position on Syria while also declaring that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia needed to choose whether to side with Mr. Assad or the West. After TL educating on me on Russia's stake in Syria (naval base), I can't help but wonder what Russia has to gain by letting Assad get booted. I can't imagine a situation where the US allows Russia to keep their naval base there, right? Or perhaps we do? Syria should allow the naval base or refuse it. I don't understand what would be controversial about that kind of reasoning.
Syria lacks the strength to be granted the ability to make that decision.
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Whether trump succeeds or fails in the short term or long term, politics has been unusually interesting, here and around the world. Wonder what will happen next.
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On April 12 2017 00:23 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 00:21 a_flayer wrote:On April 12 2017 00:11 KwarK wrote:On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call. This is a loaded question which betrays your own limited assumptions. There is no such thing as should. You seem to be attempting the argument that the Syrian Parliament should get to decide and that the United States should not. If you wish to make that argument then do it properly. Start with Thomas Hobbes, work through the rights of all men to decide their own fate free of interference, make the leap from that the creation of a Republic containing elements of democracy and see if you can string the Syrian Parliament to natural law with an unbroken chain. If you can't, there is no should. Also if you don't accept natural law as a concept then there is no should. I certainly have no idea what you're talking about regarding natural law and Thomas Hobbes. Perhaps I should have quoted Mohdoo. My question/statement was in response to what he said. On April 11 2017 23:37 Mohdoo wrote:t_d on suicide watch: Syria’s Government ‘Coming to an End,’ Tillerson Warns Before Russia TripLUCCA, Italy — Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said on Tuesday that the reign of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was “coming to an end” and warned that Russia was at risk of becoming irrelevant in the Middle East by continuing to support him.
Mr. Tillerson, in comments made just before he traveled to Moscow for a high-stakes summit meeting, sought to clear up the United States’ position on Syria while also declaring that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia needed to choose whether to side with Mr. Assad or the West. After TL educating on me on Russia's stake in Syria (naval base), I can't help but wonder what Russia has to gain by letting Assad get booted. I can't imagine a situation where the US allows Russia to keep their naval base there, right? Or perhaps we do? Syria should allow the naval base or refuse it. I don't understand what would be controversial about that kind of reasoning. Syria lacks the strength to be granted the ability to make that decision. If I have a gun, and you do not, you lack the strength to decide to keep hold of your wallet. Therefore, you should not be allowed to make that decision. I will make it for you. Give me your money.
Syria should be allowed to make their own decision. If they do not have the 'strength', then we (as an international community that respects humanity and international law) should work to grant them that strength before such decisions are made.
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United States42024 Posts
On April 12 2017 00:21 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 00:11 KwarK wrote:On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call. This is a loaded question which betrays your own limited assumptions. There is no such thing as should. You seem to be attempting the argument that the Syrian Parliament should get to decide and that the United States should not. If you wish to make that argument then do it properly. Start with Thomas Hobbes, work through the rights of all men to decide their own fate free of interference, make the leap from that the creation of a Republic containing elements of democracy and see if you can string the Syrian Parliament to natural law with an unbroken chain. If you can't, there is no should. Also if you don't accept natural law as a concept then there is no should. I certainly have no idea what you're talking about regarding natural law and Thomas Hobbes. Perhaps I should have quoted Mohdoo. My question/statement was in response to what he said. Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 23:37 Mohdoo wrote:t_d on suicide watch: Syria’s Government ‘Coming to an End,’ Tillerson Warns Before Russia TripLUCCA, Italy — Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said on Tuesday that the reign of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was “coming to an end” and warned that Russia was at risk of becoming irrelevant in the Middle East by continuing to support him.
Mr. Tillerson, in comments made just before he traveled to Moscow for a high-stakes summit meeting, sought to clear up the United States’ position on Syria while also declaring that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia needed to choose whether to side with Mr. Assad or the West. After TL educating on me on Russia's stake in Syria (naval base), I can't help but wonder what Russia has to gain by letting Assad get booted. I can't imagine a situation where the US allows Russia to keep their naval base there, right? Or perhaps we do? Syria should allow the naval base or refuse it. I don't understand what would be controversial about that kind of reasoning. The problem is that "should" doesn't itself mean anything. The word "should" doesn't just mean a certain outcome is preferable, it means that a certain outcome is natural, the default state of affairs. That's fine for things like "an object should continue to move in the same direction at the same velocity until another force acts upon it" but it's much more hazy for things like "the United States should not discriminate against Muslim immigrants" and practically opaque by the time we reach "the Syrian Parliament's decision should be respected by the United States".
"Should" basically means "according to a set of predetermined assumptions that I am using about how the world ought to work this is what I think". My challenge to you was to start with "The Syrian government should make the decision" and work backwards to assemble a coherent philosophical argument for why that should be the case.
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On April 12 2017 00:26 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 00:23 Mohdoo wrote:On April 12 2017 00:21 a_flayer wrote:On April 12 2017 00:11 KwarK wrote:On April 12 2017 00:06 a_flayer wrote: Why should the US have a say in whether Russia has a naval base in Syria? What right do they have to make such demands? Let the Syrian elected parliament make that call. This is a loaded question which betrays your own limited assumptions. There is no such thing as should. You seem to be attempting the argument that the Syrian Parliament should get to decide and that the United States should not. If you wish to make that argument then do it properly. Start with Thomas Hobbes, work through the rights of all men to decide their own fate free of interference, make the leap from that the creation of a Republic containing elements of democracy and see if you can string the Syrian Parliament to natural law with an unbroken chain. If you can't, there is no should. Also if you don't accept natural law as a concept then there is no should. I certainly have no idea what you're talking about regarding natural law and Thomas Hobbes. Perhaps I should have quoted Mohdoo. My question/statement was in response to what he said. On April 11 2017 23:37 Mohdoo wrote:t_d on suicide watch: Syria’s Government ‘Coming to an End,’ Tillerson Warns Before Russia TripLUCCA, Italy — Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said on Tuesday that the reign of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was “coming to an end” and warned that Russia was at risk of becoming irrelevant in the Middle East by continuing to support him.
Mr. Tillerson, in comments made just before he traveled to Moscow for a high-stakes summit meeting, sought to clear up the United States’ position on Syria while also declaring that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia needed to choose whether to side with Mr. Assad or the West. After TL educating on me on Russia's stake in Syria (naval base), I can't help but wonder what Russia has to gain by letting Assad get booted. I can't imagine a situation where the US allows Russia to keep their naval base there, right? Or perhaps we do? Syria should allow the naval base or refuse it. I don't understand what would be controversial about that kind of reasoning. Syria lacks the strength to be granted the ability to make that decision. If I have a gun, and you do not, you lack the strength to decide to keep hold of your wallet.
Wrong. I am an American citizen and am entitled to protection by our various forms of police and army and whatnot. Syria has no such protections.
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