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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
In 1987, I got interested in casinos after the Supreme Court ruled that Native Americans had a right to own them. I was sure it would lead to the spread of casinos across the country—casinos run mostly by corporate America. For the only time in my life, I applied for a job. The Philadelphia Inquirer liked my idea: in June 1988, I moved to Atlantic City.
A few days later, I met Donald Trump.
I sized him up as a modern P. T. Barnum selling tickets to a modern variation of the Feejee Mermaid, one of the panoply of Barnum’s famous fakes that people decided were worth a bit of their money. Trump was full of himself. I quickly learned from others in town that he knew next to nothing about the casino industry, including the rules of the games. That would turn out to be important, as explained in two chapters near the end of this book.
In the nearly thirty years since then, I have followed Trump intensely; I’ve paid close attention to his business dealings and I’ve interviewed him multiple times. In 1990, I broke the story that, instead of being worth billions, as he’d claimed, Trump actually had a negative net worth and escaped a chaotic collapse into personal bankruptcy only when the government took his side over the bank’s, as you will read.
From "The Making of Donald Trump" by David Cay Johnston. Stunning to see the incompetence of this man.
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My father thinks neocons got Trump by his balls and forcing him to quit his anti-war, America first stance. My best friend thinks Russians and Trump orchestrated a fake chemical attack - and fake airfield attack to distract US public from Trump-Russian ties. My girlfriend thinks Bush's son will come into power.
And I'm like:
Don't let yourself live without humor. 
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On April 11 2017 12:31 LegalLord wrote:SpaceX and Tesla are different beasts. I have to give credit to SpaceX in certain contexts (reducing launch costs while maintaining quality) despite my general criticism of the company. It doesn't look profitable but that's their problem. Tesla, however, I have to be much more critical and say that I think it's little more than a money laundering scheme. Its financial are a shitshow; there is no better way to describe them. Every idiot and their mother will try to make the "Amazon strategy" argument but it just doesn't work. On cars that cost infinity billion dollars, they still break just about even when you compare revenue to cost of revenue alone. Not counting R&D, further infrastructure development (which is where Amazon invested all their money), and so on. Plus despite comparable valuations Ford has a revenue 20x Tesla (much more in terms of actual cars sold since Teslas are absurdly expensive). And Ford makes a solid $4b/quarter profit, and even Ford is a troubled company (Toyota's margins are far, far superior to Ford's, for example). Teslas have utterly shitty safety ratings. Their major scaling projects are highly dubious. And yet they grow in perpetuity because there are infinite numbers of greater fools willing to suck Musk's cock cuz he makes beautiful videos promising anything he could possibly promise. SolarCity already got a buyout to look like it didn't go belly-up. Any dispassionate look at Tesla would show it as a fundamentally idiotic venture. And yet it has legions of deluded fans who, along with finance folk who make money, pushing it to well above reasonable prices. Forgive me for being the tiniest bit upset about an egregious abuse of gullible people. @ticklish: I read that and could have sworn it was satire. But it wasn't, so  .
Wow, something I actually agree with you on!
Pretty much the only question I have for you is why do you think it is a money laundering scheme? Musk made a lot of money off of Paypal, and he didn't have to put a bunch of it into a very risky bet on electric cars. I'm more inclined to think that it is an ego project for the man.
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On April 11 2017 12:31 LegalLord wrote:SpaceX and Tesla are different beasts. I have to give credit to SpaceX in certain contexts (reducing launch costs while maintaining quality) despite my general criticism of the company. It doesn't look profitable but that's their problem. Tesla, however, I have to be much more critical and say that I think it's little more than a money laundering scheme. Its financial are a shitshow; there is no better way to describe them. Every idiot and their mother will try to make the "Amazon strategy" argument but it just doesn't work. On cars that cost infinity billion dollars, they still break just about even when you compare revenue to cost of revenue alone. Not counting R&D, further infrastructure development (which is where Amazon invested all their money), and so on. Plus despite comparable valuations Ford has a revenue 20x Tesla (much more in terms of actual cars sold since Teslas are absurdly expensive). And Ford makes a solid $4b/quarter profit, and even Ford is a troubled company (Toyota's margins are far, far superior to Ford's, for example). Teslas have utterly shitty safety ratings. Their major scaling projects are highly dubious. And yet they grow in perpetuity because there are infinite numbers of greater fools willing to suck Musk's cock cuz he makes beautiful videos promising anything he could possibly promise. SolarCity already got a buyout to look like it didn't go belly-up. Any dispassionate look at Tesla would show it as a fundamentally idiotic venture. And yet it has legions of deluded fans who, along with finance folk who make money, pushing it to well above reasonable prices. Forgive me for being the tiniest bit upset about an egregious abuse of gullible people. @ticklish: I read that and could have sworn it was satire. But it wasn't, so .
the finance folks only push it and other things because they can take a risk/ near risk free cut from ancillary transaction services. look at Snap, the company is a joke. at least with tesla you ostensibly have a voice as a shareholder. with snap, you just gotta trust that evan spiegel is steve jobs reincarnated in a millenial's body.
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On his part, an ego project might be it. He does seem like the obsessive yet far-removed from reality type.
But Tesla is more than one man's work. There's an entire legion of financiers behind it that make a fortune off of speculation on a cult stock.
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On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/tsla%20piper.jpg) Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now.
That's why you diversify your portfolio with stocks outside America and with fixed income.
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Honestly Trump is probably sitting on a rather hefty economic bubble. He takes credit for its success but it's likely going to burst before he is done. Fundamentally the economy does not seem to reflect the exuberance of the stock market right now.
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On April 11 2017 14:04 CorsairHero wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. That's why you diversify your portfolio with stocks outside America and with fixed income.
Yeah, and that's what I'll do eventually when I decide to invest money into the the markets. Currently, my money is tied up in real estate, and it will probably be a few years before I'm ready to sink money elsewhere.
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On April 11 2017 14:10 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly Trump is probably sitting on a rather hefty economic bubble. He takes credit for its success but it's likely going to burst before he is done. Fundamentally the economy does not seem to reflect the exuberance of the stock market right now.
Then why is Yellen signalling 3 rate hikes this year?
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On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now.
Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree.
edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too.
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On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too.
real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling.
regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes.
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On April 11 2017 14:10 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly Trump is probably sitting on a rather hefty economic bubble. He takes credit for its success but it's likely going to burst before he is done. Fundamentally the economy does not seem to reflect the exuberance of the stock market right now.
Trump knows it's a bubble.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4xn9jLy_TB4
There are other videos too where he mentions it.One at a rally where he says he hopes the bubble pops while Obama is still president rather than after he takes office.
Now that he's in office he's talking it up in the hope that it keeps going for at least another four years.
The concern now is them starting a major war as a diversion and excuse for a collapsing economy.
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On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes.
Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago.
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On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too.
I'm in the Denver metro area, where real estate prices have climbed 10%+ per year over each of the past several years. My initial thought was that there was going to be a big adjustment in the near future, but now I'm not so sure. There are too many people moving out here and not enough houses being built to keep up with demand. Absent a major market correction at the national level, prices really don't have anywhere to go but up. And even then, the market correction won't matter that much in the long term as long as you're sufficiently capitalized to ride it out. Long term, prices will continue to appreciate unless you're living somewhere where people are fleeing the community.
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On April 11 2017 13:41 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
It's disgusting that the US Government pretends to care about kids harmed in a supposed chemical weapons attack when they've turned Iraq into a nuclear disaster with depleted uranium shells.
It's disgusting that the US government pretends to care about kids harmed in a chemical weapons attack when the Syrians are using chemical weapons that Reagan and Rumsfeld sold to Saddam Hussein...
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On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago.
I agree the situation isnt ideal but the automotive situation is far different than the housing market of 2009.
Cars are depreciable assets and, aside from older or ultra low volume cars that become collectors items, the value of the car is always going down. We dont see people trying to flip cars like what we saw in the housing crisis. To my knowledge there are also no adjustable rate auto loans. Aside from a slow down in the auto industry, i dont see many parallels to 2009. I think an equivalence would be more like the credit card debt issues we have been seeing for a while.
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On April 11 2017 22:16 Sadist wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago. I agree the situation isnt ideal but the automotive situation is far different than the housing market of 2009. Cars are depreciable assets and, aside from older or ultra low volume cars that become collectors items, the value of the car is always going down. We dont see people trying to flip cars like what we saw in the housing crisis. To my knowledge there are also no adjustable rate auto loans. Aside from a slow down in the auto industry, i dont see many parallels to 2009. I think an equivalence would be more like the credit card debt issues we have been seeing for a while.
Used car dealers are flipping cars like crazy. They're giving loans out to people that can afford them, are bankrupt, already have loans for cars they can't pay for, etc. It's a constant cycle of sell the car, repossess it because the people can't pay for it ad nauseum while continuing to take in money that is currently owed. They are even selling that debt off to other people to collect. It's just that the flippers are companies now and not people.
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On April 11 2017 14:16 CorsairHero wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 14:10 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly Trump is probably sitting on a rather hefty economic bubble. He takes credit for its success but it's likely going to burst before he is done. Fundamentally the economy does not seem to reflect the exuberance of the stock market right now. Then why is Yellen signalling 3 rate hikes this year?
to some extent those rate hikes were overdue. That is the rates weren't hiked for a long time under obama, they'd been long wanting to, but they also didn't want to hurt the recovery, so they kept settling on not raising the rates; and the economy has some weird stuff happening which doesn't fit any of the models well so it's harder to figure out what to do.
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On April 11 2017 22:20 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 22:16 Sadist wrote:On April 11 2017 21:47 Gahlo wrote:On April 11 2017 15:28 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:On April 11 2017 15:07 hunts wrote:On April 11 2017 12:20 xDaunt wrote:On April 11 2017 12:15 ticklishmusic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 11 2017 11:39 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 11:35 Mohdoo wrote:On April 11 2017 10:11 LegalLord wrote:
California-based bubble overtakes real, if troubled, car companies in Detroit in stock market valuation despite no particularly good fundamentals or financials to justify that price?
Don't get me wrong, it is impressive how long it's managed to sustain this illusion, but Tesla is a complete and utter cult stock. They invest nearly everything they make back into the company. The financials aren't supposed to look great right now. They are doing things right, though. Yes, taking "the Amazon excuse" to anyone noticing a company being financially unfeasible is an excellent way to run a money laundering venture. It doesn't make the company feasible though. Though if Musk has proven anything, there are a lot of people who are a combination of well-meaning and gullible, so he continues to have an income. take a look at this analyst note, it's fucking hilarious Animal Spirits! Fuck yeah! Similarly, the current stock market makes no sense to me. Everything is retardedly overbought and overvalued, but no one seems to care. I'll let my retirement funds do whatever they're going to do, but I hate the idea of sinking money into stocks right now. Yup, we should be in the ending phase of the bull market. Everyone is buying overpriced stocks that can't perform up to what they're priced at, and then it all goes down, at least to some degree. edit: Read your real estate comment. Ironically at least where I live, real estate prices have been going up so much that we're also going to have a real estate crash in the relatively near future too. real estate is doing okay I think if you look at percentage and mortgage and stuff. Remember seeing something about auto loans being the next thing that's likely to collapse. but yeah at some point it's going to fall. Market's tend to react late and suddenly. If it looks like tax reform isn't happening or the infrastructure bill is dead then it might start falling. regarding rate hikes I think their designed to 1) slow down growth so it doesn't overshoot too far (this could be wrong) 2) give you wiggle room when something bad happens. if the economy tanks and your interest rates are super low you can only pull a Japan and go reverse interest. So you raise it when the economies doing well. I'm not an economist but every economist I've seen hasn't had a problem with rate hikes. Yeah, the auto loan landscape is a giant shit show. They're basically doing the exact same thing that the housing industry was doing a decade ago. I agree the situation isnt ideal but the automotive situation is far different than the housing market of 2009. Cars are depreciable assets and, aside from older or ultra low volume cars that become collectors items, the value of the car is always going down. We dont see people trying to flip cars like what we saw in the housing crisis. To my knowledge there are also no adjustable rate auto loans. Aside from a slow down in the auto industry, i dont see many parallels to 2009. I think an equivalence would be more like the credit card debt issues we have been seeing for a while. Used car dealers are flipping cars like crazy. They're giving loans out to people that can afford them, are bankrupt, already have loans for cars they can't pay for, etc. It's a constant cycle of sell the car, repossess it because the people can't pay for it ad nauseum while continuing to take in money that is currently owed. They are even selling that debt off to other people to collect. It's just that the flippers are companies now and not people.
This is correct but that has always happened. The amount owed on a car loan vs the value of the car is nothing like the scale of the housing market. I would imagine people are 10% underwater on their loan which for most people is less than 5k if they had to sell. It sucks, but its always been that way.
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EPT
