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On March 19 2017 07:31 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2017 07:07 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 06:02 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly I think that the past few years has seen the "fuck socialism" sentiment slowly but surely recede. It was prominent in 08, slightly less so in '12, and it was only kind of relevant to Sanders in '16. Sooner or later people will actually realize that healthcare isn't best when it's run for profit. Only when much later people forget the health plans they were able to pick and pay for before Obamacare. And that will be more of a mis-remembrance than an actual realization. Most of those were great if they were supplied by your employer, but utter trash unless your employer provided them.
I do welcome the polling on that. I know if you took private-insurance plans as a group, more than three quarters of people were satisfied with their insurance plans. ~87-88%.
And if we could ever get a true market for them and not this employer-favored tax treatment, we might even have made improvements on pricing and the issue of lapses in insurance aka pre-existing conditions back then. But health has always been a political football and Dems got the majority at the right time for a government takeover.
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On March 19 2017 07:39 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2017 07:31 Nevuk wrote:On March 19 2017 07:07 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 06:02 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly I think that the past few years has seen the "fuck socialism" sentiment slowly but surely recede. It was prominent in 08, slightly less so in '12, and it was only kind of relevant to Sanders in '16. Sooner or later people will actually realize that healthcare isn't best when it's run for profit. Only when much later people forget the health plans they were able to pick and pay for before Obamacare. And that will be more of a mis-remembrance than an actual realization. Most of those were great if they were supplied by your employer, but utter trash unless your employer provided them. I do welcome the polling on that. I know if you took private-insurance plans as a group, more than three quarters of people were satisfied with their insurance plans. ~87-88%. And if we could ever get a true market for them and not this employer-favored tax treatment, we might even have made improvements on pricing and the issue of lapses in insurance aka pre-existing conditions back then. But health has always been a political football and Dems got the majority at the right time for a government takeover.
Part of the problem is if you had a shitty policy, but it was cheap, and you never used it, you would probably be satisfied with it. People might have been aware their policy was trash, but just wanted a false sense of security on the cheap, but the more likely explanation is that they only liked them because they didn't know what they were (besides cheap).
People are barely capable of being rational consumers of food (something everyone has an abundant amount of experience with), the idea that they can be rational consumers of healthcare, in a market where deception is SOP, with little to no understanding of medical procedures, and even less information on cost/value than you get for food, is absurd.
I can tell you where you can get the cheapest burger, the most expensive burger, and the best value burger in my town. I bet no one here (in America) has the slightest fucking clue where the cheapest place to have a baby, or get an X-Ray is. Let alone capable of identifying the best choice on the detailed nuance of different insurance policies.
That's not even covering the idea of "shopping" for appendix removal while it's on the verge of bursting and how impossible that is.
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On March 19 2017 07:38 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2017 07:07 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 06:02 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly I think that the past few years has seen the "fuck socialism" sentiment slowly but surely recede. It was prominent in 08, slightly less so in '12, and it was only kind of relevant to Sanders in '16. Sooner or later people will actually realize that healthcare isn't best when it's run for profit. Only when much later people forget the health plans they were able to pick and pay for before Obamacare. And that will be more of a mis-remembrance than an actual realization. it'll probably be a fairly even mix of people thinking it was better before and better after; the data generally indicates that people's memory on such things is terrible, and more likely to be a reconstruction based on beliefs and rationalization. the rationalization will cause it to largely skew based on party and other group affiliations, with some omdest correlation to actual reality. some plans are better off, some worse. it's not like pre-obamacare was markedly better on average, that's just a different kind of mis-rememberance and lack of understanding, and/or only looking at a certain subset of cases.
Your estimate would need some support. It's a very tough stance to radically mix up the market and assume it would be even. And you contradict yourself: either it'll be fairly even, or rationalization/beliefs will make it uneven, but not both.
Polls were conducted at the time before Obamacare was passed and after passage but before implementation. Stick to the timeline.
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I mean, this is also ignoring those who had no health insurance, isn't it?
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On March 19 2017 08:24 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2017 07:38 zlefin wrote:On March 19 2017 07:07 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 06:02 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly I think that the past few years has seen the "fuck socialism" sentiment slowly but surely recede. It was prominent in 08, slightly less so in '12, and it was only kind of relevant to Sanders in '16. Sooner or later people will actually realize that healthcare isn't best when it's run for profit. Only when much later people forget the health plans they were able to pick and pay for before Obamacare. And that will be more of a mis-remembrance than an actual realization. it'll probably be a fairly even mix of people thinking it was better before and better after; the data generally indicates that people's memory on such things is terrible, and more likely to be a reconstruction based on beliefs and rationalization. the rationalization will cause it to largely skew based on party and other group affiliations, with some omdest correlation to actual reality. some plans are better off, some worse. it's not like pre-obamacare was markedly better on average, that's just a different kind of mis-rememberance and lack of understanding, and/or only looking at a certain subset of cases. Your estimate would need some support. It's a very tough stance to radically mix up the market and assume it would be even. And you contradict yourself: either it'll be fairly even, or rationalization/beliefs will make it uneven, but not both. Polls were conducted at the time before Obamacare was passed and after passage but before implementation. Stick to the timeline.
my estimate is that rationalization will mostly make people who are dem-aligned think it's better after and rep aligned think it's worse, which is a fairly even split population-wise. cuz that's the bias that does tend to occur in these situations; when it becomes politicized you end up with party-line splits.
it's of course far from certain, but it is consistent with what usually occurs in similar situations to people's beliefs.
it will be fairly even BECAUSe of rationalizations, it's not a contradiction, that's just you being unable to see things well.
the absic problem of course, is that people's opinions of whether they're satisfied aren't well correlated with actual quality or reality; likewise people's assessment of how well the system is working.
have links to the polls in question already been posted? I missed them if they were; would they be in the last few pages?
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People like twilight and sugary drinks, that says nothing about whether that stuff is good for them.
But that's the Amercian freedom. Choose your own demise.
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On March 19 2017 08:47 Artisreal wrote:
People like twilight and sugary drinks, that says nothing about whether that stuff is good for them.
But that's the Amercian freedom. Choose your own demise.
Who cares about the legacy of your empire, because hey, you can choose your own demise at least!
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On March 19 2017 08:28 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2017 08:24 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 07:38 zlefin wrote:On March 19 2017 07:07 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 06:02 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly I think that the past few years has seen the "fuck socialism" sentiment slowly but surely recede. It was prominent in 08, slightly less so in '12, and it was only kind of relevant to Sanders in '16. Sooner or later people will actually realize that healthcare isn't best when it's run for profit. Only when much later people forget the health plans they were able to pick and pay for before Obamacare. And that will be more of a mis-remembrance than an actual realization. it'll probably be a fairly even mix of people thinking it was better before and better after; the data generally indicates that people's memory on such things is terrible, and more likely to be a reconstruction based on beliefs and rationalization. the rationalization will cause it to largely skew based on party and other group affiliations, with some omdest correlation to actual reality. some plans are better off, some worse. it's not like pre-obamacare was markedly better on average, that's just a different kind of mis-rememberance and lack of understanding, and/or only looking at a certain subset of cases. Your estimate would need some support. It's a very tough stance to radically mix up the market and assume it would be even. And you contradict yourself: either it'll be fairly even, or rationalization/beliefs will make it uneven, but not both. Polls were conducted at the time before Obamacare was passed and after passage but before implementation. Stick to the timeline. my estimate is that rationalization will mostly make people who are dem-aligned think it's better after and rep aligned think it's worse, which is a fairly even split population-wise. cuz that's the bias that does tend to occur in these situations; when it becomes politicized you end up with party-line splits. it's of course far from certain, but it is consistent with what usually occurs in similar situations to people's beliefs. it will be fairly even BECAUSe of rationalizations, it's not a contradiction, that's just you being unable to see things well. the absic problem of course, is that people's opinions of whether they're satisfied aren't well correlated with actual quality or reality; likewise people's assessment of how well the system is working. have links to the polls in question already been posted? I missed them if they were; would they be in the last few pages?
Normally I would endeavor to find them again, gallup and an industry group. But I generally estimate that half of the people will rationalize that the polls don't matter one bit and the other half wouldn't expend the effort searching for them on google for even five minutes. cuz that's the effort that does tend to occur in these situations; when it becomes politicized you end up with ideological-line splits.
it's of course far from certain, but it is consistent with what usually occurs in similar situations to people's beliefs.
it will be fairly even BECAUSe of rationalizations, it's not a contradiction, that's just you being unable to see things well.
the absic problem of course, is that people's opinions of whether they're satisfied aren't well correlated with actual quality or reality; likewise people's assessment of how well the system is working.
I welcome your perspective on the changes if you wish to add that; I will read it. But like your previous blanket estimation, I repeat it in hopes of reminding you that there is no value in it.
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On March 19 2017 08:16 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2017 07:39 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 07:31 Nevuk wrote:On March 19 2017 07:07 Danglars wrote:On March 19 2017 06:02 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly I think that the past few years has seen the "fuck socialism" sentiment slowly but surely recede. It was prominent in 08, slightly less so in '12, and it was only kind of relevant to Sanders in '16. Sooner or later people will actually realize that healthcare isn't best when it's run for profit. Only when much later people forget the health plans they were able to pick and pay for before Obamacare. And that will be more of a mis-remembrance than an actual realization. Most of those were great if they were supplied by your employer, but utter trash unless your employer provided them. I do welcome the polling on that. I know if you took private-insurance plans as a group, more than three quarters of people were satisfied with their insurance plans. ~87-88%. And if we could ever get a true market for them and not this employer-favored tax treatment, we might even have made improvements on pricing and the issue of lapses in insurance aka pre-existing conditions back then. But health has always been a political football and Dems got the majority at the right time for a government takeover. Part of the problem is if you had a shitty policy, but it was cheap, and you never used it, you would probably be satisfied with it. People might have been aware their policy was trash, but just wanted a false sense of security on the cheap, but the more likely explanation is that they only liked them because they didn't know what they were (besides cheap).
It makes sense. That's why we had the news stories about 700 dollar epipens because 6000 dollar deductables w/o copays wasn't exactly commonplace, so you end up paying a pretty good amount / month for essentially no coverage unless you get hit by a bus or some other catastrophic event. It does nothing to address the issue of preventative care and whatnot, something that dental insurance (for example) tends to do a good job at, but again it's very specific and predictable, making it work in general.
Prior to lol deductables, people didn't really know the true cost of medical care because insurance covered it all up and you were just responsible for your deductables and copays and usually 20-30% of the cost up to whatever your maximum out of pocket costs were.
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So, if by fake news, he means a video taping of his meeting, and if by great, he means cringeworthy, then yes it was the best meeting I have ever seen from a politician.
Trump is always good for a laugh at the end of the day.
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Oh and after the handshake assault on Abe, the handshake defense from Trudeau, the no handshake with Merkel (while looking in the vague with his signature duck face when asked about it - but we were warned his attention span was strictly limited to 15 minutes so it might even be involuntary). I mean can't the guy just behave like a normal human being?
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Sorry dude, we elected a walking gaffe machine and we're just going to look stupid for years to come. The best part is you still pretty much have to listen because the US is too big to ignore.
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people are hailing him for that on liveleak lol. "patriot lion trump didn't handshake with Merkel who turned germany into a middle eastern state, trump knows this". made my day.
at first I thought he doesn't do it because the media tells him to do it. possibly the ones he hates, but then I see his body language, how unhappy and alien he feels next to merkel, possibly because her dominating politic experience. or he so hates women that he couldn't stand next to a powerful one.
OR, he needed some cash and merkel said no. that tweet supports it as well. that was the face I do when mom rejected when I asked some lmao, I know that face.
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Guys I figured it out. Trump is going after PBS because Sesame street has 167 emmys and he has none.
but yeah dude does not know how to be a regular human being. Then again he did claim his opponent's father was involved in the Kennedy assasination so clearly he has problems.
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On March 19 2017 14:21 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Guys I figured it out. Trump is going after PBS because Sesame street has 167 emmys and he has none.
but yeah dude does not know how to be a regular human being. Then again he did claim his opponent's father was involved in the Kennedy assasination so clearly he has problems.
Nah, he misheard PBS as PMS and he's trying to kill it. Doesn't make for clean grabbing.
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Two days until Gorsuch hearings...
Part of me thinks he'll spend as much time opposing this administrations actions as supporting them, given Trump's authoritarian leanings.
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Well a judge should do his job first and foremost so I don't think that's a problem.
xDaunt clone seems like a principled and quality SCOTUS judge though so we should be ok.
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Given the nothingburger stories that have been put up in the lead to this it seems like he may very well get 60 votes. It's best for the Democrats this way anyways, lucky them.
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I mean, yeah, it's pretty damn shitty how they torpedoed the Garland nomination. But Gorsuch is a perfectly qualified SCOTUS judge and there is little to be gained by playing obstructionist since it won't work for four years.
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EPT
