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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On February 15 2017 12:54 LegalLord wrote: "And the nomination goes to John Kasich?" I don't think he's relevant enough to have anything to lose. Nah, for turning down the VP position, as it's very likely that if the Russia thing really does pan out that it will go to Pence | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:37 Nevuk wrote: Nah, for turning down the VP position, as it's very likely that if the Russia thing really does pan out that it will go to Pence I think that there is about zero chance Trump will resign of his own volition. Which means all the joys of impeachment proceedings, followed by a presidency that would be worse than Ford. Pence being put into the presidency would be quite chaotic. That said, nothing is likely to happen. Trump looks more easily manipulated than spy. | ||
KwarK
United States44288 Posts
On February 15 2017 11:11 LegalLord wrote: The real secret is that none of this is actually about Russia. Whatever problems people do or don't have with Russia and Russian foreign policy, this simply isn't about that. And it isn't even about that Russia leaked emails to Wikileaks. It's about Trump and ways to bring him down. That's about where we are in terms of partisanship. That's absurd. It's about Russia because Russia deliberately intervened to change the outcome of the US election. You're trying to suggest that if the scandal wasn't about Russia it'd just be another thing because this is all partisan. There is nothing partisan about foreign intervention in the democratic process. It's about Russia because Russia is the country that did it. If Russia hadn't done it we wouldn't all be talking about the threat from Canada instead just to try and bring Trump down. The cause isn't partisanship, the cause is the event itself. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:41 KwarK wrote: That's absurd. It's about Russia because Russia deliberately intervened to change the outcome of the US election. You're trying to suggest that if the scandal wasn't about Russia it'd just be another thing because this is all partisan. There is nothing partisan about foreign intervention in the democratic process. It's about Russia because Russia is the country that did it. If Russia hadn't done it we wouldn't all be talking about the threat from Canada instead just to try and bring Trump down. The cause isn't partisanship, the cause is the event itself. I have grown convinced that LL is just Zeo light. Criticizing the motherland isn't something he does. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:41 LegalLord wrote: I think that there is about zero chance Trump will resign of his own volition. Which means all the joys of impeachment proceedings, followed by a presidency that would be worse than Ford. Pence being put into the presidency would be quite chaotic. That said, nothing is likely to happen. Trump looks more easily manipulated than spy. an impeachment isn't necessary, they could also declare trump unfit. pence may not be idela, but he's far better than trump, so the sooner the better. | ||
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biology]major
United States2253 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
for what it's worth, trump at worst represents one more drop in the kleptocracy bucket. it's more of a sign of the times than anything immediately disastrous for the u.s. but if pence comes on and in an effort to appear tough escalates stuff with russia, then there will be real volatility and danger. democrats need to not direct this at russia but look at the nature of the connection, the nature of kleptocratic manipulation of democracy and how it serves very craven individuals at the expense of the public. it's a tough task but gotta direct this energy towards a productive direction. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:46 biology]major wrote: dudes, I am so angry about this because I expected a worst case scenario of incompetence from Trump. If this investigation leads to betrayal of the american people by his administration by conspiring w/ Russia.. I want some answers damn Well you do have the earlier investigation from the FBI that said Russia didn't have control over him. It would probably be more fruitful to investigate some of his inner circle. For example, Bannon looks like a good candidate for being a mole. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:41 KwarK wrote: That's absurd. It's about Russia because Russia deliberately intervened to change the outcome of the US election. You're trying to suggest that if the scandal wasn't about Russia it'd just be another thing because this is all partisan. There is nothing partisan about foreign intervention in the democratic process. It's about Russia because Russia is the country that did it. If Russia hadn't done it we wouldn't all be talking about the threat from Canada instead just to try and bring Trump down. The cause isn't partisanship, the cause is the event itself. There shouldn't be anything partisan about foreign influence in elections, but the reality of the response suggests that that is not the case. That's the beauty in all this and why the leaks worked out so perfectly. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:46 biology]major wrote: dudes, I am so angry about this because I expected a worst case scenario of incompetence from Trump. If this investigation leads to betrayal of the american people by his administration by conspiring w/ Russia.. I want some answers damn would it be all that surprising, given the number of pre-election indications of that possibility? it's still quite far from being proven anyways. answers are nice of course. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:50 LegalLord wrote: Well you do have the earlier investigation from the FBI that said Russia didn't have control over him. It would probably be more fruitful to investigate some of his inner circle. For example, Bannon looks like a good candidate for being a mole. the level of evidence required to determine 'control' of trump is extraordinary. it would require some mistake on the part of the handling. so not finding evidence of the sort that would stand up in court doesn't mean all that much here. we can look at circumstantial evidence and draw conclusions. this particular web is rather complex though, and stretches years back. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:50 oneofthem wrote: i'm rather wary of pence actually. for what it's worth, trump at worst represents one more drop in the kleptocracy bucket. it's more of a sign of the times than anything immediately disastrous for the u.s. but if pence comes on and in an effort to appear tough escalates stuff with russia, then there will be real volatility and danger. democrats need to not direct this at russia but look at the nature of the connection, the nature of kleptocratic manipulation of democracy and how it serves very craven individuals at the expense of the public. it's a tough task but gotta direct this energy towards a productive direction. while i'm not fond of pence, imho a basic level of competence matters a lot. and pence at least has that. the level of kleptocracy trump represents is far worse than the existing us standards. and degradation of institutions and standards matters a great deal. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 15 2017 13:57 zlefin wrote: while i'm not fond of pence, imho a basic level of competence matters a lot. and pence at least has that. the level of kleptocracy trump represents is far worse than the existing us standards. and degradation of institutions and standards matters a great deal. oh yea by all means go with the kleptocracy angle, not the russia angle. it's a bit hard to navigate though. but the basic idea is that kleptocratic regimes will do stuff that are destabilizing in order to maintain power. it's true and it is what is needed in terms of grand strategy | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
There is no possibility of this ending positively. We've already crossed the event horizon of this presidency. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On February 15 2017 14:01 oneofthem wrote: oh yea by all means go with the kleptocracy angle, not the russia angle. it's a bit hard to navigate though well, I think the russia issue is also fa rmore connected with trump than with pence. and if pence clears out the trump people that'll be enough. I think if trump is tossed, a fair number of people will be content to see trump and his crew tossed, and move on. but now it feels like we're getting mixed up and talking at cross-points. so i'm just gonna suspend this line and focus on clearer ones. | ||
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Doodsmack
United States7224 Posts
On February 15 2017 14:01 LegalLord wrote: Pence will inherit Trump's baggage. And he has plenty of his own. There is no possibility of this ending positively. We've already crossed the event horizon of this presidency. And it was all predictable. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Yes, this is certainly starting to resemble a worst case scenario of Trump being president. Oh by the way, Tillerson debuts this weekend as SoS with a G-20 meeting. A few other important FP events this weekend, iirc. As for the Flynn issue, if I've judged the political climate correctly, it will likely be buried as soon as Trump has another spat with Mexico or something. That's how the past year has gone anyways. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
and this is only the 2nd worst case scenario of trump being president  though the worst reasonable one ofc. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Waiting out Trump's presidency as with Bush isn't an option. This is going to look much more disastrous than last time. Not that Clinton would have brought stability. Just four more years of fractured consensus, which is probably preferable for our local "I <3 the status quo" crowd. | ||
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