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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
December 20 2016 03:09 GMT
#129001
Clearly we are not going to agree on if Trump is playing 7d chess.

At the very least China's response to Trump is a roll of the dice. China is in many ways an equal actor and will have their say before all is said and done.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-20 03:16:17
December 20 2016 03:14 GMT
#129002
On December 20 2016 12:09 On_Slaught wrote:
Clearly we are not going to agree on if Trump is playing 7d chess.

At the very least China's response to Trump is a roll of the dice. China is in many ways an equal actor and will have their say before all is said and done.


I'm not even arguing that Trump is playing 7d chess. What he's doing isn't very complicated. Anyone who has done any kind of professional negotiation will recognize the simple tactics immediately. Your problem is that you are unwilling to view him as anything other than a retard, which completely hampers you from being able to assess what he's doing.
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-20 03:20:06
December 20 2016 03:18 GMT
#129003
Retard? No. Petty and mediocre? Yes. I believe we have an aggressively mediocre person running the country whose temperament is bound to get him or this country in trouble before things are done.

But I digress, I don't think China is going to be as easy to play as he thinks. For example, if he thinks One China is even a negotiable issue then he is going to be sorely disappointed.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
December 20 2016 03:30 GMT
#129004
On December 20 2016 12:18 On_Slaught wrote:
Retard? No. Petty and mediocre? Yes. I believe we have an aggressively mediocre person running the country whose temperament is bound to get him or this country in trouble before things are done.

But I digress, I don't think China is going to be as easy to play as he thinks. For example, if he thinks One China is even a negotiable issue then he is going to be sorely disappointed.

Actually, the US has most of the leverage right now. China's economy is teetering, and the Communist Party is struggling to prop up growth, which is almost entirely reliant upon exports . Moreover, China is hemorrhaging foreign currency reserves in an effort to prop up the yuan. The big fear that the US had in dealing with China was China dumping dollars on the market thereby devaluing our currency. However, that's not currently a concern with the dollar being so strong right now despite China's dumping of dollars on the market. If there was ever a moment for the US to reset its relations with China on more favorable grounds, now is it.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
December 20 2016 03:40 GMT
#129005
On December 20 2016 12:14 xDaunt wrote:
Anyone who has done any kind of professional negotiation will recognize the simple tactics immediately.


Him saying "keep the drone you stole" seems to me more like a statement that doesn't make sense. If doing the unexpected entails saying things that don't really make sense, I'm not sure I buy that this is some sort of smart negotiating tactic.

I guess he could say later on that he didn't make a big deal out of the drone, but he did openly put the One China policy on the table so it's not like he's not stirring the pot.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
December 20 2016 03:41 GMT
#129006
On December 20 2016 12:40 Doodsmack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2016 12:14 xDaunt wrote:
Anyone who has done any kind of professional negotiation will recognize the simple tactics immediately.


Him saying "keep the drone you stole" seems to me more like a statement that doesn't make sense. If doing the unexpected entails saying things that don't really make sense, I'm not sure I buy that this is some sort of smart negotiating tactic.

I guess he could say later on that he didn't make a big deal out of the drone, but he did openly put the One China policy on the table so it's not like he's not stirring the pot.

Ignore the drone. He's telling China to go fuck itself. Now does it make more sense?
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
December 20 2016 03:43 GMT
#129007
On December 20 2016 12:30 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2016 12:18 On_Slaught wrote:
Retard? No. Petty and mediocre? Yes. I believe we have an aggressively mediocre person running the country whose temperament is bound to get him or this country in trouble before things are done.

But I digress, I don't think China is going to be as easy to play as he thinks. For example, if he thinks One China is even a negotiable issue then he is going to be sorely disappointed.

Actually, the US has most of the leverage right now. China's economy is teetering, and the Communist Party is struggling to prop up growth, which is almost entirely reliant upon exports . Moreover, China is hemorrhaging foreign currency reserves in an effort to prop up the yuan. The big fear that the US had in dealing with China was China dumping dollars on the market thereby devaluing our currency. However, that's not currently a concern with the dollar being so strong right now despite China's dumping of dollars on the market. If there was ever a moment for the US to reset its relations with China on more favorable grounds, now is it.


Problem is when you approach the negotiation from the standpoint of "I'm going to do anything I can to get the best possible outcome for myself and the worst possible for you". Trump comes in and says "your economy is teetering so right now I'm threatening to ruin your economy if you don't accept my terms" - those aren't friendly terms. China then reacts defensively as humans do; they don't just give in to the US.

I can only imagine the disaster plans being drawn up in China to bring the US economy down with them.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
December 20 2016 03:45 GMT
#129008
On December 20 2016 12:41 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2016 12:40 Doodsmack wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:14 xDaunt wrote:
Anyone who has done any kind of professional negotiation will recognize the simple tactics immediately.


Him saying "keep the drone you stole" seems to me more like a statement that doesn't make sense. If doing the unexpected entails saying things that don't really make sense, I'm not sure I buy that this is some sort of smart negotiating tactic.

I guess he could say later on that he didn't make a big deal out of the drone, but he did openly put the One China policy on the table so it's not like he's not stirring the pot.

Ignore the drone. He's telling China to go fuck itself. Now does it make more sense?


Well I hope that's not the case (and I don't know if it is), because I don't think US-China relations are such that we should be coming in right now and saying fuck you I'm taking everything that I can.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-20 03:49:49
December 20 2016 03:49 GMT
#129009
All that said, my understanding of the Chinese trade deficit is that it was originally allowed in order to coax China into free global trade. If we can now take more of that money at the expense of the Asian middle class, without too much convulsion in the global economy, I guess that's good for our country.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
December 20 2016 03:51 GMT
#129010
On December 20 2016 12:45 Doodsmack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2016 12:41 xDaunt wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:40 Doodsmack wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:14 xDaunt wrote:
Anyone who has done any kind of professional negotiation will recognize the simple tactics immediately.


Him saying "keep the drone you stole" seems to me more like a statement that doesn't make sense. If doing the unexpected entails saying things that don't really make sense, I'm not sure I buy that this is some sort of smart negotiating tactic.

I guess he could say later on that he didn't make a big deal out of the drone, but he did openly put the One China policy on the table so it's not like he's not stirring the pot.

Ignore the drone. He's telling China to go fuck itself. Now does it make more sense?


Well I hope that's not the case (and I don't know if it is), because I don't think US-China relations are such that we should be coming in right now and saying fuck you I'm taking everything that I can.

Why not? Furthermore, do you not think that that has been China's attitude towards the US and the West for some time now?
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
December 20 2016 04:04 GMT
#129011
On December 20 2016 12:51 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2016 12:45 Doodsmack wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:41 xDaunt wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:40 Doodsmack wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:14 xDaunt wrote:
Anyone who has done any kind of professional negotiation will recognize the simple tactics immediately.


Him saying "keep the drone you stole" seems to me more like a statement that doesn't make sense. If doing the unexpected entails saying things that don't really make sense, I'm not sure I buy that this is some sort of smart negotiating tactic.

I guess he could say later on that he didn't make a big deal out of the drone, but he did openly put the One China policy on the table so it's not like he's not stirring the pot.

Ignore the drone. He's telling China to go fuck itself. Now does it make more sense?


Well I hope that's not the case (and I don't know if it is), because I don't think US-China relations are such that we should be coming in right now and saying fuck you I'm taking everything that I can.

Why not? Furthermore, do you not think that that has been China's attitude towards the US and the West for some time now?

What do you hope Trump will accomplish with China?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
December 20 2016 04:15 GMT
#129012
On December 20 2016 13:04 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2016 12:51 xDaunt wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:45 Doodsmack wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:41 xDaunt wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:40 Doodsmack wrote:
On December 20 2016 12:14 xDaunt wrote:
Anyone who has done any kind of professional negotiation will recognize the simple tactics immediately.


Him saying "keep the drone you stole" seems to me more like a statement that doesn't make sense. If doing the unexpected entails saying things that don't really make sense, I'm not sure I buy that this is some sort of smart negotiating tactic.

I guess he could say later on that he didn't make a big deal out of the drone, but he did openly put the One China policy on the table so it's not like he's not stirring the pot.

Ignore the drone. He's telling China to go fuck itself. Now does it make more sense?


Well I hope that's not the case (and I don't know if it is), because I don't think US-China relations are such that we should be coming in right now and saying fuck you I'm taking everything that I can.

Why not? Furthermore, do you not think that that has been China's attitude towards the US and the West for some time now?

What do you hope Trump will accomplish with China?

I want a reset of trade relations such that China is not bending us over anymore. I want us to treat China like the adversary that it is instead of pussyfooting around the issue. Our policies with the Chinese are completely idiotic, and I am glad that Trump is going to be scrapping many of them and starting over.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
December 20 2016 04:35 GMT
#129013
South China Sea and Taiwan diplomacy will be fertile ground for gauging if China wants to continue being adversarial. Then again, how is the Chinese Communist Party supposed to stay in power in perpetuity? I don't see the hegemony continuing if they soften the power trips. Just a big eastern economic powerhouse except for the odd blogger getting thrown in jail?
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-20 05:31:16
December 20 2016 05:30 GMT
#129014
Well... China is certainly more vulnerable than its GDP would suggest it is. It certainly isn't capable of fighting an effective war against a strong military at the moment, nor does it have much of the will it would need to enforce its territorial claims. I suppose there is a possibility that, if it was the policy you committed to, that you could take a more explicitly adversarial approach to China and have a positive result. It would need to be a damn sight more effective than the US MidEast policy or the so-called "Asia pivot" to have a chance of success though.

More brinkmanship in the South China Sea anyone?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
TheYango
Profile Joined September 2008
United States47024 Posts
December 20 2016 05:31 GMT
#129015
As I mentioned when Trump got the phone call from Taiwan, the danger with any sudden moves with regard to how Trump redefines China/US relations is the secondary effect on China/Taiwan relations. A lot of how the tenuous situation between Beijing and Taipei plays out has a lot to do with expectations set by the US toward both sides.

Again, if Trump wants to change the American stance toward the situation to be "it's your own problem, deal with it yourself", that's fine. But otherwise any sudden moves like this should be discouraged because destabilizing the China/Taiwan situation this way isn't good for anyone.
Moderator
Slaughter
Profile Blog Joined November 2003
United States20254 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-20 06:27:35
December 20 2016 06:22 GMT
#129016
Ok I have seen arguments talking about how weak the US is right now but now people are saying going to say China is weak? You can't have it both ways. People kept saying how Obama is letting Russia/China get too strong but they really can't if their economies are in the crapper. The US economy is in a stable/positive direction (if not fragile due to the problem of the transforming nature of the economy that no one has figured out how to deal with yet). Russian economy is in the pits and to make some noise and give itself something to hang it's hat on it has annexed Crimea at a huge cost sink and large amounts of international sanctions and decided to enter the shit show that is the mid east. Meanwhile you have China whose economic methods to drive insane growth are coming back to bite them in the ass. Seems like the US is positioned just fine regardless of what Trump said in his campaign.
Never Knows Best.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
December 20 2016 07:11 GMT
#129017
Anyways, for those that haven't been paying attention, the Obama camp picked Tom Perez, his Secretary of Labor, as his preferred choice for DNC chair and the challenge to Ellison: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-dnc-chair-tom-perez-keith-ellison-20161213-story.html

I'm not really sure what I want out of the DNC but I will say that I am absolutely not fond of what direction the establishment Democrats are taking. It seems they are pushing for a more "the midterms will give us gains against the Trump administration so we should just wait it out" approach rather than one that will yield more to the progressives. If they do, then I'm probably not voting for them next time around.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18580 Posts
December 20 2016 08:10 GMT
#129018
On December 20 2016 15:22 Slaughter wrote:
Ok I have seen arguments talking about how weak the US is right now but now people are saying going to say China is weak? You can't have it both ways. People kept saying how Obama is letting Russia/China get too strong but they really can't if their economies are in the crapper. The US economy is in a stable/positive direction (if not fragile due to the problem of the transforming nature of the economy that no one has figured out how to deal with yet). Russian economy is in the pits and to make some noise and give itself something to hang it's hat on it has annexed Crimea at a huge cost sink and large amounts of international sanctions and decided to enter the shit show that is the mid east. Meanwhile you have China whose economic methods to drive insane growth are coming back to bite them in the ass. Seems like the US is positioned just fine regardless of what Trump said in his campaign.


The same people who call US weak are the ones who invested into China and regret it now. As you mentioned China has problems too and they will only get bigger as time goes on.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
December 20 2016 11:28 GMT
#129019
Capitalism today in a nutshell.

Enthusiasm for cancer immunotherapy is soaring, and so is Arie Belldegrun’s fortune.

Dr. Belldegrun, a physician, co-founded Kite Pharma, a company that could be the first to market next year with a highly anticipated new immunotherapy treatment. But even without a product, Dr. Belldegrun has struck gold.

His stock in Kite is worth about $170 million. Investors have profited along with him, as the company’s share price has soared to about $50 from an initial price of $17 in 2014.

The results reflect widespread excitement over immunotherapy, which harnesses the body’s immune system to attack cancer and has rescued some patients from near-certain death. But they also speak volumes about the value of Kite’s main scientific partner: the United States government.

Kite’s treatment, a form of immunotherapy called CAR-T, was initially developed by a team of researchers at the National Cancer Institute, led by a longtime friend and mentor of Dr. Belldegrun. Now Kite pays several million a year to the government to support continuing research dedicated to the company’s efforts.

The relationship puts American taxpayers squarely in the middle of one of the hottest new drug markets. It also raises a question: Are taxpayers getting a good deal?

Defenders say that the partnership will likely bring a lifesaving treatment to patients, something the government cannot really do by itself, and that that is what matters most.

Critics say that taxpayers will end up paying twice for the same drug — once to support its development and a second time to buy it — while the company reaps the financial benefit.

“If this was not a government-funded cancer treatment — if it was for a new solar technology, for example — it would be scandalous to think that some private investors are reaping massive profits off a taxpayer-funded invention,” said James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International, an advocacy group concerned with access to medicines.

The debate goes squarely to one of the nation’s most vexing challenges: rising health care and drug prices. Kite is one of a growing number of drug and biotech companies relying on federal laboratories. Analysts expect the company to charge at least $200,000 for the new treatment, which is intended as a one-time therapy for patients.

While the law allows the government to demand drug-price concessions from its private-sector partners, the government has declined to do so with Kite and generally disdains the practice.

Insisting on lower prices, federal researchers say, would drive away innovative partners that speed the drug-development process and benefit patients. But with the government doing so much pivotal research, others say that the private sector cannot afford to walk away.

“The market is so reliant on the knowledge and know-how that comes out of the government and academic labs,” said Dr. Aaron Kesselheim, director of the Program on Regulation, Therapeutics and Law at Brigham & Women’s Hospital in Boston.

Price curbs, he said, “would not suddenly lead to a total abandonment of this pipeline. It couldn’t possibly.”

Drug makers would be especially unlikely to turn away from immunotherapy, where the promising science has set off a “gold rush mentality,” according to Mark Edwards of Bioscience Advisors, a company which tracks pharmaceutical licensing deals.

The National Institutes of Health, the parent agency of the National Cancer Institute, currently has about 400 cooperative research agreements with companies, and licenses hundreds of patented inventions for private-sector development.

Kite executives and national health officials characterize their partnership as a model arrangement in a system established by Congress three decades ago. The system has given birth to the cancer drug Taxol, the AIDS drug Prezista, two cervical cancer vaccines and a widely used test for H.I.V. infection, among other innovations.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12389 Posts
December 20 2016 13:04 GMT
#129020
On December 20 2016 16:11 LegalLord wrote:
Anyways, for those that haven't been paying attention, the Obama camp picked Tom Perez, his Secretary of Labor, as his preferred choice for DNC chair and the challenge to Ellison: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-dnc-chair-tom-perez-keith-ellison-20161213-story.html

I'm not really sure what I want out of the DNC but I will say that I am absolutely not fond of what direction the establishment Democrats are taking. It seems they are pushing for a more "the midterms will give us gains against the Trump administration so we should just wait it out" approach rather than one that will yield more to the progressives. If they do, then I'm probably not voting for them next time around.


Ellison is a much better pick than Perez.

Which means I have no doubt they'll get Perez.
No will to live, no wish to die
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