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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
December 06 2016 15:07 GMT
#127441
I'm sure a lot of potential faithless electors would reconsider their protest if Trump's electoral margin were narrow, rather than moderately strong. A message of a vote of no confidence is significantly less impactful than starting one of the biggest constitutional crises in a long time.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-06 15:14:05
December 06 2016 15:13 GMT
#127442
On December 06 2016 14:33 Sermokala wrote:
If Trump doesn't get 270 and the election from the EC the supreme court will give him the presidency and abolish the EC before inauguration day. Its a non issue people are flapping their wings for pointlessly.


If the SC abolishes the electoral college before inauguration day it would be hard for Trump to justify being President, considering he's relying on the winner-take-all nature of the EC to be the winner.

That said they almost certainly won't do any such thing, considering the EC is the only constitutional mechanism for selecting a president.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-06 16:22:25
December 06 2016 16:21 GMT
#127443
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html
Krikkitone
Profile Joined April 2009
United States1451 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-06 16:32:27
December 06 2016 16:26 GMT
#127444
On December 07 2016 00:07 LegalLord wrote:
I'm sure a lot of potential faithless electors would reconsider their protest if Trump's electoral margin were narrow, rather than moderately strong. A message of a vote of no confidence is significantly less impactful than starting one of the biggest constitutional crises in a long time.


Except it probably wouldn't... unless they all switched their vote to Hillary.

If they got Trump below 270, but Hillary was also below 270 (because they chose a third party)

Then it would just go to the House of Representatives... dominated by Republicans...Republicans that may hate Trump, but want to get reelected from their republican leaning districts, and probably hate Hillary more.

House chooses Hillary... they have to deal with a Democratic president who they hate, and are defying the normal constitutional order of things

House chooses third person (Cruz, Pence, Donald Duck..depending on who the electors chose)... they get someone they sort of like, but are making someone president who got less than 5% votes across the country AND defying the normal constitutional order of things.

House chooses Trump.. they get someone they might hate, but he's a Republican who will pass at least some of their agenda, and he's the person most voted for in most of their districts.


If enough of the electors flipped to Hillary, then there would be a challenge by Trump....especially if any of them are from states where the electors are bound by law. Supreme court wouldn't want it.... so it would probably work its way up until the "binding of the electors" was held up.. and then all the higher levels would affirm the lower level/decline to take it.

If Hillary reached 270 from unbound electors..... then there would be a full blown constitutional crisis. Especially with a Republican controlled Congress.... The Supreme Court might drop down to 7 justices, since the Senate might just refuse to add any Justices that the "pretender" would appoint.
(chances are we would get an amendment to the process)
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
December 06 2016 16:31 GMT
#127445
I'm up for a third historical "corrupt bargain" scenario as well. We haven't had one of those in about 150 years and we're long overdue.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Incognoto
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
France10239 Posts
December 06 2016 16:38 GMT
#127446
On December 07 2016 01:21 pmh wrote:
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html


Reminds me of this: https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/5gpn1l/pentagon_buries_evidence_of_125_billion_in/

It always makes me laugh when people say "increase governent spending!!!1" when it's already probably x3 time over what it's supposed to be.
maru lover forever
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-06 16:41:30
December 06 2016 16:41 GMT
#127447
On December 07 2016 01:21 pmh wrote:
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html

Trump sure knows how to pick 'em. This is a nice, high profile, yet relatively limited issue that Trump can use to continue to build his legend. And he's probably right that this particular contract is bloated.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12083 Posts
December 06 2016 16:45 GMT
#127448
On December 07 2016 01:41 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 01:21 pmh wrote:
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html

Trump sure knows how to pick 'em. This is a nice, high profile, yet relatively limited issue that Trump can use to continue to build his legend. And he's probably right that this particular contract is bloated.


Would you object if I asked you to write a series of things that Trump could do where you'll disagree with him? Cause I'm getting the distinct sense that you're just agreeing with things as they come because Trump is the one doing them.

If you've already done that I apologize, it's possible I missed it.
"It is capitalism that is incentivizing me to lazily explain this to you while at work because I am not rewarded for generating additional value."
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
December 06 2016 17:08 GMT
#127449
On December 07 2016 01:45 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 01:41 xDaunt wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:21 pmh wrote:
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html

Trump sure knows how to pick 'em. This is a nice, high profile, yet relatively limited issue that Trump can use to continue to build his legend. And he's probably right that this particular contract is bloated.


Would you object if I asked you to write a series of things that Trump could do where you'll disagree with him? Cause I'm getting the distinct sense that you're just agreeing with things as they come because Trump is the one doing them.

If you've already done that I apologize, it's possible I missed it.


There are a lot of things that he could do that I'd disagree with -- pretty much anything that falls outside of my policy preferences. For example, if Trump stopped being a nationalist and pursuing nationalist objectives, I'd be very unhappy with him.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-06 17:25:06
December 06 2016 17:22 GMT
#127450
a vanilla 747 costs about 400m already. double that because airforce one is in reality 2 planes and you get 800m as the extreme lower bound. then you add in all the stuff that makes airforce one a self sustaining flying command center. i have little understanding of the costs that go into such a thing, and trump probably doesn't either.

4b is not a completely insane price tag though. i did a quick search and the presidential limo evidently costs 1.5m, which is several fold the couple hundred grand for an ordinary limo. so having a presidential-version of whatever machinery cost several x of what the commercial version does not seem out of the ordinary. i can't find where the 4b comes from either.

much like the carrier deal, which ended up outsourcing most of the jobs to mexico and effectively keeps a few hundred as a loss leader this is a PR stunt with little grounding in reality.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-06 17:24:48
December 06 2016 17:22 GMT
#127451
I'm confused by the Air Force One Article, no where in the article does it say $4 billion other than from Trump. They say:


According to the Department of Defense budget there's about $2.8 billion dollars allotted on the project until fiscal 2021. The document didn't put a total figure on the cost. The figure was marked as "continuing" under cost to complete.


Which would be about .56b/yr or about 0.001% of the DoD's annual budget each year through 2021.

Even if they buy the planes for 4 billion, if they keep them for 25 years the cost of the planes in relation to the total DoD budget (never mind the total US budget) is absurdly small.

So good on him if he can negotiate it down with good terms, there's nothing wrong with getting such a win. A penny saved is a penny earned and all that.

But it seems like Trump is focusing a lot on high profile, but ultimately low impact things. Is that going to carry over into his actual presidency? I can totally see us in 2020 (or sooner) on the same course as we are now, but with Trump campaigning/arguing he's been a great success because of a trickle of small deals like Carrier or this Air Force One thing. Like hell the Carrier deal is really popular even with all the problems and even though it still means Carrier is cutting jobs that exist currently.

Basically I think Trump will favor easier High Profile small things over larger systemic gains that are harder to measure.
Logo
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-06 17:27:57
December 06 2016 17:27 GMT
#127452
On December 07 2016 02:22 Logo wrote:
But it seems like Trump is focusing a lot on high profile, but ultimately low impact things. Is that going to carry over into his actual presidency? I can totally see us in 2020 (or sooner) on the same course as we are now, but with Trump campaigning/arguing he's been a great success because of a trickle of small deals like Carrier or this Air Force One thing. Like hell the Carrier deal is really popular even with all the problems and even though it still means Carrier is cutting jobs that exist currently.

Basically I think Trump will favor easier High Profile small things over larger systemic gains that are harder to measure.


I think that Trump will continue to pick high profile, easy wins so that he can expand his popularity, which in turn will fuel his mandate and build his political capital. If we've learned nothing else from the campaign, it's that Trump understands the power and manipulating perception. I do not expect him to shy away from tackling larger issues that are important to him, such as immigration. If anything, I think that he's going to use the smaller issues to give him more leverage to tackle the larger ones.
Slaughter
Profile Blog Joined November 2003
United States20254 Posts
December 06 2016 17:27 GMT
#127453
Well the country wasn't in nearly a bad of a spot as Trump claimed during the election so he could sit back and focus on small things that get him a lot of press and see "look how good we are doing now" despite not changing much.
Never Knows Best.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
December 06 2016 17:41 GMT
#127454
On December 07 2016 02:27 Slaughter wrote:
Well the country wasn't in nearly a bad of a spot as Trump claimed during the election so he could sit back and focus on small things that get him a lot of press and see "look how good we are doing now" despite not changing much.


the blue collar manufacturing workers will be less than impressed when he fails to bring back the jobs, minus a few thousand here and there for PR.

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21587 Posts
December 06 2016 17:46 GMT
#127455
On this I agree with xDaunt, Airforce One is a tiny issue but its a safe one to go after to score easy points.

And yes I fully expect him to parade around tiny victories as his great work.
Doubt it will hold up if a recession hits and no amount of tweeting can hide the pain in people's wallets but we will have to see how it goes if it comes to that.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
December 06 2016 18:12 GMT
#127456
On December 07 2016 02:08 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 01:45 Nebuchad wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:41 xDaunt wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:21 pmh wrote:
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html

Trump sure knows how to pick 'em. This is a nice, high profile, yet relatively limited issue that Trump can use to continue to build his legend. And he's probably right that this particular contract is bloated.


Would you object if I asked you to write a series of things that Trump could do where you'll disagree with him? Cause I'm getting the distinct sense that you're just agreeing with things as they come because Trump is the one doing them.

If you've already done that I apologize, it's possible I missed it.


There are a lot of things that he could do that I'd disagree with -- pretty much anything that falls outside of my policy preferences. For example, if Trump stopped being a nationalist and pursuing nationalist objectives, I'd be very unhappy with him.

I think that the other thing bears mentioning in response to Nebuchad's post that's not-so-subtly accusing me of being a Trump cheerleader is this: regardless of how agreeable Trump's policies and actions are, what he's doing is undeniably interesting and exciting. For how many years have people wanted some kind of change in Washington? Something to shake up partisan gridlock and status quo? Well, we're getting that change now. We'll see whether any good comes of it, but the quality of the spectacle is undeniable.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
December 06 2016 18:16 GMT
#127457
This analysis of the politics and economy tells am important about the class warfare that is going on.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/11/29/another-clinton-trump-divide-high-output-america-vs-low-output-america/?utm_campaign=Brookings Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=38499796

I'll quote parts later.
Moderator我们是个踏实的赞助商模式俱乐部
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21587 Posts
December 06 2016 18:16 GMT
#127458
On December 07 2016 03:12 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 02:08 xDaunt wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:45 Nebuchad wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:41 xDaunt wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:21 pmh wrote:
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html

Trump sure knows how to pick 'em. This is a nice, high profile, yet relatively limited issue that Trump can use to continue to build his legend. And he's probably right that this particular contract is bloated.


Would you object if I asked you to write a series of things that Trump could do where you'll disagree with him? Cause I'm getting the distinct sense that you're just agreeing with things as they come because Trump is the one doing them.

If you've already done that I apologize, it's possible I missed it.


There are a lot of things that he could do that I'd disagree with -- pretty much anything that falls outside of my policy preferences. For example, if Trump stopped being a nationalist and pursuing nationalist objectives, I'd be very unhappy with him.

I think that the other thing bears mentioning in response to Nebuchad's post that's not-so-subtly accusing me of being a Trump cheerleader is this: regardless of how agreeable Trump's policies and actions are, what he's doing is undeniably interesting and exciting. For how many years have people wanted some kind of change in Washington? Something to shake up partisan gridlock and status quo? Well, we're getting that change now. We'll see whether any good comes of it, but the quality of the spectacle is undeniable.

Sometimes your sitting at home a little bored wanting for something interesting to happen to occupy your mind.
Getting attacked by a wild bear would fit that criteria. But its normally not something people wish for.


Your attitude is that of the well off white male who has (almost) nothing to fear.
You call it a spectacle but when your job, your pension, your health insurance or your gay marriage are affected by it your slightly less happy.

Congratulations and enjoy the spectacle in your silver tower. Just don't get mad that other people who's daily lives are effected by the 'spectacle' going on are a little cross.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12083 Posts
December 06 2016 18:21 GMT
#127459
On December 07 2016 03:12 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 07 2016 02:08 xDaunt wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:45 Nebuchad wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:41 xDaunt wrote:
On December 07 2016 01:21 pmh wrote:
Lol this is epic, trump negotiating the price of the new air force one. Such a boss ha ha ha.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-air-force-one-tweet-143753937.html

Trump sure knows how to pick 'em. This is a nice, high profile, yet relatively limited issue that Trump can use to continue to build his legend. And he's probably right that this particular contract is bloated.


Would you object if I asked you to write a series of things that Trump could do where you'll disagree with him? Cause I'm getting the distinct sense that you're just agreeing with things as they come because Trump is the one doing them.

If you've already done that I apologize, it's possible I missed it.


There are a lot of things that he could do that I'd disagree with -- pretty much anything that falls outside of my policy preferences. For example, if Trump stopped being a nationalist and pursuing nationalist objectives, I'd be very unhappy with him.

I think that the other thing bears mentioning in response to Nebuchad's post that's not-so-subtly accusing me of being a Trump cheerleader is this: regardless of how agreeable Trump's policies and actions are, what he's doing is undeniably interesting and exciting. For how many years have people wanted some kind of change in Washington? Something to shake up partisan gridlock and status quo? Well, we're getting that change now. We'll see whether any good comes of it, but the quality of the spectacle is undeniable.


I don't know what gave you the impression that I was trying to be subtle about it. And that's not really the type of answer I was looking for, btw, as it's vague and can still reasonably be argued to apply in most of the likely situations.
"It is capitalism that is incentivizing me to lazily explain this to you while at work because I am not rewarded for generating additional value."
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
December 06 2016 18:21 GMT
#127460
On December 07 2016 02:22 Logo wrote:
I'm confused by the Air Force One Article, no where in the article does it say $4 billion other than from Trump. They say:

Show nested quote +

According to the Department of Defense budget there's about $2.8 billion dollars allotted on the project until fiscal 2021. The document didn't put a total figure on the cost. The figure was marked as "continuing" under cost to complete.


Which would be about .56b/yr or about 0.001% of the DoD's annual budget each year through 2021.

Even if they buy the planes for 4 billion, if they keep them for 25 years the cost of the planes in relation to the total DoD budget (never mind the total US budget) is absurdly small.

So good on him if he can negotiate it down with good terms, there's nothing wrong with getting such a win. A penny saved is a penny earned and all that.

But it seems like Trump is focusing a lot on high profile, but ultimately low impact things. Is that going to carry over into his actual presidency? I can totally see us in 2020 (or sooner) on the same course as we are now, but with Trump campaigning/arguing he's been a great success because of a trickle of small deals like Carrier or this Air Force One thing. Like hell the Carrier deal is really popular even with all the problems and even though it still means Carrier is cutting jobs that exist currently.

Basically I think Trump will favor easier High Profile small things over larger systemic gains that are harder to measure.


that does not seem unlikely I have to admit.
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