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On November 05 2016 10:17 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 09:43 plasmidghost wrote:
Should Trump be trying harder in Florida? He's only having two more rallies there and if polls can be trusted, is gradually slipping throughout the state He's there Saturday & Monday.Sunday he's got four events in four different states.The guys energy always surprises me especially considering his age.Really does fit as much in as he can. BTW the one day he's not in Florida, on Sunday, Pence is doing an event there.
Yeah, his energy is undeniable, makes me think of that commentator who said he was on coke during the debates
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Lets be fair to karl rove
He had Bush campaigning in California the week before election day in 2000. roving is taking confidence and warped polls to a level that'll actually effect the election.
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On the other hand, Hillary's having rallies in Michigan, which I highly doubt she'll lose, and Ohio, which I doubt she'll win, but she's going to have some huge names in Pennsylvania over the next few days, so I think she'll be able to pull off a 2-3% victory there
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United States42008 Posts
Ohio was solidly Hillary 4 days ago. It's not unreasonable to think it's possible it'll vote Hillary in 4 days. The swings in this election have been crazy. Ohio is worth campaigning for, just as much as any of the other 6 swings.
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The polls also become more unreliable the closer we get to election, especially with early voting. At least that is what NPR is telling me.
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All this cheerleading by Obama should be cancelled out with ads using his own quotes from 08.
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These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted
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On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted
Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.
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On November 05 2016 09:45 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 07:55 Nyxisto wrote:On November 04 2016 23:06 LegalLord wrote:
PEC just uses a questionable method. Trump's chances are definitely better than 3%. He really could win under not so unfeasible circumstances. Read their FAQ and you'll see "well our method has failed before, it failed to predict this and that election... but we fixed it and it's all good now guys!" I call BS.
Coming back to the number crunching I actually saw this today which compared PEC, Silver and others up to 2012, and PEC in the past definitely has been at least as accurate as Nate, so I think calling their model BS seems unfair. I'm prepared to reconsider if they do well more than once, but reading what you had there it seems mostly like the analysis you linked favors those who were most confident about their predictions - which would easily favor PEC. I suppose a better test will be whether Nate or PEC seem more accurate in predicting whether or not the current shift in polls towards Trump is real; the PEC says that they will have to eat their words if Trump gets over 240. However, what I'm really calling BS on is the way they try to explain themselves. Their track record and their confidence in current results are not very in line with each other. They also just don't really sound like they know what they're doing.
The math banter also has reached unknown levels lol
+ Show Spoiler +
This election is turning everybody into enemies, not even statistics are safe
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Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed.
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On November 05 2016 11:17 Plansix wrote:Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed.
why would she do that? And before the election too, WTF. I guess she caved in to all the threats she got from the trumpkins?
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On November 05 2016 11:08 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.
What I do not respect is how someone can lose to HRC (as will happen), especially with wall to wall free media coverage (best advantage enjoyed by any candidate ever) for ~18 months.
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Looks like Trump isn't doing national media interviews in teh final days. I guess he finally made a competent political decision  .
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On November 05 2016 11:25 Doodsmack wrote:Looks like Trump isn't doing national media interviews in teh final days. I guess he finally made a competent political decision .
One of the reasons he's closing in is that she is in the news and he is not.
With early voting it's probably not enough, but it is fascinating how reliable this phenomenon is. And it seems safe to say there are no more leaks coming. I thought they might have had one more Trump story in the bag, but I guess not.
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On November 05 2016 11:08 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.
Actually, the electoral map favors him in that he's more likely to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote-Clinton is doing better in a lot of red states than previously, which helps her popular vote share but doesn't really help her electoral votes, making the split more likely.
That and the specific states aren't terrible for him.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 05 2016 11:10 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 09:45 LegalLord wrote:On November 05 2016 07:55 Nyxisto wrote:On November 04 2016 23:06 LegalLord wrote:
PEC just uses a questionable method. Trump's chances are definitely better than 3%. He really could win under not so unfeasible circumstances. Read their FAQ and you'll see "well our method has failed before, it failed to predict this and that election... but we fixed it and it's all good now guys!" I call BS.
Coming back to the number crunching I actually saw this today which compared PEC, Silver and others up to 2012, and PEC in the past definitely has been at least as accurate as Nate, so I think calling their model BS seems unfair. I'm prepared to reconsider if they do well more than once, but reading what you had there it seems mostly like the analysis you linked favors those who were most confident about their predictions - which would easily favor PEC. I suppose a better test will be whether Nate or PEC seem more accurate in predicting whether or not the current shift in polls towards Trump is real; the PEC says that they will have to eat their words if Trump gets over 240. However, what I'm really calling BS on is the way they try to explain themselves. Their track record and their confidence in current results are not very in line with each other. They also just don't really sound like they know what they're doing. The math banter also has reached unknown levels lol + Show Spoiler +This election is turning everybody into enemies, not even statistics are safe
Hahaha that's beautiful.
Though admittedly I don't care for sports predictions, I can appreciate a bit of statistics banter. Numbers without spirit get dull sometimes.
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On November 05 2016 11:08 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.
Not true at all. Trump is always graded on a curve. Hillary is not. The media is the only reason someone as ignorant as Trump is competitive to begin with, and they have given him hundreds of millions of dollars of free coverage. And among all of that free coverage he actually gets less negative coverage than Hillary despite, ironically, being the vastly more negative candidate. Funny how that works. Hillary sneezes and it's a scandal. Trump talks about how he could shoot someone and they barely cover it.
Oh and Trump is not anti-establishment. He's a corrupt media executive billionaire (or some would say "billionaire") who has the entire GOP war-chest behind it.
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On November 05 2016 11:24 hunts wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 11:17 Plansix wrote:Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed. why would she do that? And before the election too, WTF. I guess she caved in to all the threats she got from the trumpkins?
Her and her lawyer were receiving all kinds of death threats. The Trump supporters on /pol/ were involved too as usual.
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On November 05 2016 11:43 DemigodcelpH wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 11:24 hunts wrote:On November 05 2016 11:17 Plansix wrote:Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed. why would she do that? And before the election too, WTF. I guess she caved in to all the threats she got from the trumpkins? Her and her lawyer were receiving all kinds of death threats. The Trump supporters on /pol/ were involved too as usual.
Hopefully at some point in the future, anonymity on the internet will be disallowed . The negatives are just too great.
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EPT
