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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5924

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Deleted User 173346
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
16169 Posts
November 05 2016 01:26 GMT
#118461
--- Nuked ---
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14155 Posts
November 05 2016 01:26 GMT
#118462
Lets be fair to karl rove

He had Bush campaigning in California the week before election day in 2000. roving is taking confidence and warped polls to a level that'll actually effect the election.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Deleted User 173346
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
16169 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 01:37:34
November 05 2016 01:36 GMT
#118463
--- Nuked ---
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44180 Posts
November 05 2016 01:38 GMT
#118464
Ohio was solidly Hillary 4 days ago. It's not unreasonable to think it's possible it'll vote Hillary in 4 days. The swings in this election have been crazy. Ohio is worth campaigning for, just as much as any of the other 6 swings.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
November 05 2016 01:39 GMT
#118465
The polls also become more unreliable the closer we get to election, especially with early voting. At least that is what NPR is telling me.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4427 Posts
November 05 2016 01:55 GMT
#118466
Rape case against Trump has been dismissed
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-318d-d416-abfe-bbdf51aa0001
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
biology]major
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States2253 Posts
November 05 2016 01:59 GMT
#118467
All this cheerleading by Obama should be cancelled out with ads using his own quotes from 08.
Question.?
Deleted User 173346
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
16169 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 02:02:56
November 05 2016 01:59 GMT
#118468
--- Nuked ---
biology]major
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States2253 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 02:09:17
November 05 2016 02:08 GMT
#118469
On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted


Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.
Question.?
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 02:12:52
November 05 2016 02:10 GMT
#118470
On November 05 2016 09:45 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 07:55 Nyxisto wrote:
On November 04 2016 23:06 LegalLord wrote:
PEC just uses a questionable method. Trump's chances are definitely better than 3%. He really could win under not so unfeasible circumstances. Read their FAQ and you'll see "well our method has failed before, it failed to predict this and that election... but we fixed it and it's all good now guys!" I call BS.


Coming back to the number crunching I actually saw this today which compared PEC, Silver and others up to 2012, and PEC in the past definitely has been at least as accurate as Nate, so I think calling their model BS seems unfair.

I'm prepared to reconsider if they do well more than once, but reading what you had there it seems mostly like the analysis you linked favors those who were most confident about their predictions - which would easily favor PEC. I suppose a better test will be whether Nate or PEC seem more accurate in predicting whether or not the current shift in polls towards Trump is real; the PEC says that they will have to eat their words if Trump gets over 240.

However, what I'm really calling BS on is the way they try to explain themselves. Their track record and their confidence in current results are not very in line with each other. They also just don't really sound like they know what they're doing.


The math banter also has reached unknown levels lol
+ Show Spoiler +




This election is turning everybody into enemies, not even statistics are safe
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 02:18:21
November 05 2016 02:17 GMT
#118471
On November 05 2016 10:55 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Rape case against Trump has been dismissed
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-318d-d416-abfe-bbdf51aa0001

Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
hunts
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2113 Posts
November 05 2016 02:24 GMT
#118472
On November 05 2016 11:17 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 10:55 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Rape case against Trump has been dismissed
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-318d-d416-abfe-bbdf51aa0001

Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed.


why would she do that? And before the election too, WTF. I guess she caved in to all the threats she got from the trumpkins?
twitch.tv/huntstv 7x legend streamer
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
November 05 2016 02:24 GMT
#118473
On November 05 2016 11:08 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted


Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.


What I do not respect is how someone can lose to HRC (as will happen), especially with wall to wall free media coverage (best advantage enjoyed by any candidate ever) for ~18 months.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
November 05 2016 02:25 GMT
#118474
Looks like Trump isn't doing national media interviews in teh final days. I guess he finally made a competent political decision .
Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States4999 Posts
November 05 2016 02:33 GMT
#118475
On November 05 2016 11:25 Doodsmack wrote:
Looks like Trump isn't doing national media interviews in teh final days. I guess he finally made a competent political decision .


One of the reasons he's closing in is that she is in the news and he is not.

With early voting it's probably not enough, but it is fascinating how reliable this phenomenon is. And it seems safe to say there are no more leaks coming. I thought they might have had one more Trump story in the bag, but I guess not.
"But, as the conservative understands it, modification of the rules should always reflect, and never impose, a change in the activities and beliefs of those who are subject to them, and should never on any occasion be so great as to destroy the ensemble."
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
November 05 2016 02:36 GMT
#118476
On November 05 2016 11:08 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted


Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.


Actually, the electoral map favors him in that he's more likely to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote-Clinton is doing better in a lot of red states than previously, which helps her popular vote share but doesn't really help her electoral votes, making the split more likely.

That and the specific states aren't terrible for him.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 02:37:51
November 05 2016 02:36 GMT
#118477
On November 05 2016 11:10 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 09:45 LegalLord wrote:
On November 05 2016 07:55 Nyxisto wrote:
On November 04 2016 23:06 LegalLord wrote:
PEC just uses a questionable method. Trump's chances are definitely better than 3%. He really could win under not so unfeasible circumstances. Read their FAQ and you'll see "well our method has failed before, it failed to predict this and that election... but we fixed it and it's all good now guys!" I call BS.


Coming back to the number crunching I actually saw this today which compared PEC, Silver and others up to 2012, and PEC in the past definitely has been at least as accurate as Nate, so I think calling their model BS seems unfair.

I'm prepared to reconsider if they do well more than once, but reading what you had there it seems mostly like the analysis you linked favors those who were most confident about their predictions - which would easily favor PEC. I suppose a better test will be whether Nate or PEC seem more accurate in predicting whether or not the current shift in polls towards Trump is real; the PEC says that they will have to eat their words if Trump gets over 240.

However, what I'm really calling BS on is the way they try to explain themselves. Their track record and their confidence in current results are not very in line with each other. They also just don't really sound like they know what they're doing.


The math banter also has reached unknown levels lol
+ Show Spoiler +

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/793997083367931904
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/794621232830435330

This election is turning everybody into enemies, not even statistics are safe

Hahaha that's beautiful.

Though admittedly I don't care for sports predictions, I can appreciate a bit of statistics banter. Numbers without spirit get dull sometimes.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
DemigodcelpH
Profile Joined August 2011
1138 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 02:39:07
November 05 2016 02:36 GMT
#118478
On November 05 2016 11:08 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 10:59 plasmidghost wrote:
These polls are really stressing me out. I don't like Hillary, but her being president is without a doubt going to be a lot more reasonable than Trump as president. If she loses this, I think I'll start campaigning for the Democrats for Congress in 2018
Wait, I just realized now that Trump is to the Democrats what Obama was to the Republicans, now I can kind of understand why they tried everything they could to stop anything he wanted


Trump winning is nothing short of a miracle, he was the underdog in every single facet from the very beginning. its disgusting how imbalanced this race has been so far. Electoral map, money, establishment, surrogates, celebrities, media all against trump. I respect someone who can win in those circumstances, and what I do not respect is how hrc can lose with all those adv.

Not true at all. Trump is always graded on a curve. Hillary is not. The media is the only reason someone as ignorant as Trump is competitive to begin with, and they have given him hundreds of millions of dollars of free coverage. And among all of that free coverage he actually gets less negative coverage than Hillary despite, ironically, being the vastly more negative candidate. Funny how that works. Hillary sneezes and it's a scandal. Trump talks about how he could shoot someone and they barely cover it.

Oh and Trump is not anti-establishment. He's a corrupt media executive billionaire (or some would say "billionaire") who has the entire GOP war-chest behind it.
DemigodcelpH
Profile Joined August 2011
1138 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-05 02:47:20
November 05 2016 02:43 GMT
#118479
On November 05 2016 11:24 hunts wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 11:17 Plansix wrote:
On November 05 2016 10:55 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Rape case against Trump has been dismissed
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-318d-d416-abfe-bbdf51aa0001

Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed.


why would she do that? And before the election too, WTF. I guess she caved in to all the threats she got from the trumpkins?

Her and her lawyer were receiving all kinds of death threats. The Trump supporters on /pol/ were involved too as usual.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
November 05 2016 02:55 GMT
#118480
On November 05 2016 11:43 DemigodcelpH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2016 11:24 hunts wrote:
On November 05 2016 11:17 Plansix wrote:
On November 05 2016 10:55 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Rape case against Trump has been dismissed
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-318d-d416-abfe-bbdf51aa0001

Likely settled. She asked for it to be dismissed.


why would she do that? And before the election too, WTF. I guess she caved in to all the threats she got from the trumpkins?

Her and her lawyer were receiving all kinds of death threats. The Trump supporters on /pol/ were involved too as usual.


Hopefully at some point in the future, anonymity on the internet will be disallowed . The negatives are just too great.
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