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United States42008 Posts
On November 05 2016 05:37 plasmidghost wrote: Is it safe to assume that whoever wins Florida will likely win the election? Not even slightly. Florida isn't a must win state for Clinton.
The default is still Clinton on 270 (enough to win), Trump on around 190, 80 to play for. The problem is that Clinton used to be on 330, Trump on 190, 20 to play for.
If Clinton wins Florida it's over. If she wins North Carolina, still over. But if she loses one of the states that makes up her 270, of which Florida is not, she's in real trouble, especially given that if it tips so far against her that she's lost one of those core states it's very likely she's going to lose all 80 of the states to play for.
Make sense?
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On November 05 2016 05:30 xDaunt wrote: The mere fact that there's a poll out there showing Trump tied with Hillary in Michigan should give democrats pause.
It does give me pause. The election is much closer than it should be considering what Trump stands for. However, I am also able to see that Trump loses Michigan most of the time. Aren't you?
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United States42008 Posts
On November 05 2016 05:46 Lazare1969 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 05:06 Madkipz wrote: Hillary on the other hand is a longtime political entity. Her entire life is built around taxpayer money, and that makes the public complicit in her actions. The Clintons made most of their money from donors to the Clinton Foundation, not through taxpayer money. This isn't true. Not even slightly. Unlike Trump Clinton doesn't just take money from the Foundation and use it for herself. She can't. That's not how charitable non profits work. That's why Trump is in so much trouble for doing that with his foundation.
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On November 05 2016 06:04 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 05:30 xDaunt wrote: The mere fact that there's a poll out there showing Trump tied with Hillary in Michigan should give democrats pause. It does give me pause. The election is much closer than it should be considering what Trump stands for. However, I am also able to see that Trump loses Michigan most of the time. Aren't you?
Even if Clinton wins 100% of the electoral votes, the fact that Trump's message is getting the kind response it has been getting makes me think so little of America as a whole.
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Looks like Trump's signature issue as the immigration candidate (the wall) was really just a scripted policy line meant to match Trump's image as a builder. Trump has never cared much about policy.
Leading up to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign announcement, his inner circle was arguing about whether it needed balloons, models and even a live elephant.
Some members of Trump’s team wanted the event to be an over-the-top spectacle that would say in the loudest way possible: This is a different kind of candidate. Trump’s then-campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, fought them and pushed to make the launch more traditional.
In the end, there were no circus animals — but the June 2015 campaign kickoff at Trump Tower was hardly a typical political affair. The real estate mogul and reality television star made a grand entrance on his gilded escalator, a ride that became an iconic image of his White House bid. But perhaps the most memorable and controversial part of the launch was Trump’s fiery announcement speech, in which he accused the Mexican government of sending criminals and “rapists” over the border. Yet according to every source Yahoo News spoke with — in an extensive series of interviews with top staffers from the early days of the campaign — Trump’s comments about Mexican immigrants weren’t part of his prepared speech. They were, rather, an early sign of his proclivity for provocative ad-libs that would become one of the hallmarks of his presidential bid.
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The disputes over the announcement event were small skirmishes among many battles fought by the early members of Trump’s team. Some of the most bitter feuding involved [Sam] Nunberg, [Roger] Stone and [Corey] Lewandowski. All three men are no longer with the campaign and have engaged in vicious rounds of finger-pointing since their departures.
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The brash Nunberg, who speaks with a New York accent in streams of juicy gossip and maxims gleaned from the memoirs of political strategists, made an odd couple with the meticulous Stone. But they developed a strong rapport with Trump. Nunberg likened the arrangement to a law firm where Trump was the client, Stone was a named partner and he was an associate handling the day-to-day business for Trump’s account and trying to shoehorn actual proposals into the candidate’s infamously freewheeling speeches.
“He has the Donald Trump ‘variety show,’ and we fit in the policy,” Nunberg said.
According to Stone, Nunberg wrote strategy memos, speeches, press releases and even some of Trump’s tweets.
“There was nobody else. I mean, for almost two years [before Trump's campaign announcement] he carried the torch of Trump for president. He was the guy out there arguing with everybody in the party that Trump could win,” Stone said of Nunberg. “Sam alone was out there as a true believer, and he got Donald to be more conversant with issues.”
Nunberg even claims credit for Trump’s signature policy proposal — the wall on America’s southern border with Mexico.
“I created the wall with Roger,” Nunberg recounted. “The reason, and I’ll tell you this, the reason we did the wall — Roger and I discussed it in 2014 — was it was hard to get Donald to talk about policy.”
Stone isn’t so sure about this.
“Sometimes Sam will tell you that he thought of the wall,” Stone said. “Other times he’ll tell you Trump thought of the wall. I don’t really know who thought of the wall.”
Nunberg said Trump was mostly interested in doing his “variety show,” which included tales from his career as a real estate magnate and commentary on current events. He believed the wall was one of the only policy plans Trump was eager to discuss because it allowed him to tout his experience as a developer, and it lent itself to a favorite slogan.
“He would always talk about the wall because, guess what? As he made up, ‘Nobody builds like Trump,’” said Nunberg.
Yahoo
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On November 05 2016 05:30 xDaunt wrote: The mere fact that there's a poll out there showing Trump tied with Hillary in Michigan should give democrats pause. Maybe the Democrats will reflect when they consider their legislative agenda in view of 2018 or if Trump wins/barely loses Michigan (or Wisconsin/Pennsylvania).
I think now they're too busy with Hillary and congressional races.
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On November 05 2016 05:53 plasmidghost wrote: I wish I knew enough to determine which polls are good and which ones aren't so I could actually have a way to see odds http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/
Review this and the ratings of the polls for accuracy in previous elections. It is better than just looking at the raw data. Also remember that only one of those polls can be right(assuming they say different things)
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On November 05 2016 06:17 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 05:53 plasmidghost wrote: I wish I knew enough to determine which polls are good and which ones aren't so I could actually have a way to see odds http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/Review this and the ratings of the polls for accuracy in previous elections. It is better than just looking at the raw data. Also remember that only one of those polls can be right(assuming they say different things)
not strictly true. both polls could be off, just one could be more off than the other in different ways.
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On November 05 2016 06:15 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 05:30 xDaunt wrote: The mere fact that there's a poll out there showing Trump tied with Hillary in Michigan should give democrats pause. Maybe the Democrats will reflect when they consider their legislative agenda in view of 2018 or if Trump wins/barely loses Michigan (or Wisconsin/Pennsylvania). I think now they're too busy with Hillary and congressional races. That people will buy whatever you sell em and that a large part of the country is racist/bigot/misogynist?
2016 just teaches us people are more stupid then we thought.
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And now there's a poll from Pennsylvania showing that state is tied.
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On November 05 2016 06:07 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 06:04 Nebuchad wrote:On November 05 2016 05:30 xDaunt wrote: The mere fact that there's a poll out there showing Trump tied with Hillary in Michigan should give democrats pause. It does give me pause. The election is much closer than it should be considering what Trump stands for. However, I am also able to see that Trump loses Michigan most of the time. Aren't you? Even if Clinton wins 100% of the electoral votes, the fact that Trump's message is getting the kind response it has been getting makes me think so little of America as a whole.
I'd advise support of the existence of a true leftwing party, so that opposition to moderate right wing policies isn't only represented by far right lunacy.
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On November 05 2016 06:25 xDaunt wrote: And now there's a poll from Pennsylvania showing that state is tied. You get that this is the exact thing pretty much everyone will tell you not to do with polls, right? Look at a bunch of them, find an outlier, pick it up and wave it around for everyone to see? It's the literal definition of cherry-picking.
If your point is that liberals should stop thinking they have this election in the bag, you're right, they should, but even if that's what you're arguing this is an extremely ineffective way to do it
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On November 05 2016 06:25 xDaunt wrote: And now there's a poll from Pennsylvania showing that state is tied.
There's also one showing her +6, let's play this game
Oh, and one just dropped from Michigan showing her +5
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I think government corruption ranks pretty highly on the list for the average voter, almost on the same level as the economy. That is one of the main reasons for Trump's comeback, it's really unknown if he can actually dent that issue, but we know HRC will either keep it the same or make it worse.
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I don't see trump.winning Mi....people here aren't to keen on Republicans at the moment with how shit our governor has been. It is a state that goes back and forth a fair bit but right now I would say people aren't fans of the elephant or their new orange mascot.
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On November 05 2016 06:53 Slaughter wrote: I don't see trump.winning Mi....people here aren't to keen on Republicans at the moment with how shit our governor has been. It is a state that goes back and forth a fair bit but right now I would say people aren't fans of the elephant or their new orange mascot.
The proper term is: Bigoted cheeto
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On November 05 2016 06:58 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 06:53 Slaughter wrote: I don't see trump.winning Mi....people here aren't to keen on Republicans at the moment with how shit our governor has been. It is a state that goes back and forth a fair bit but right now I would say people aren't fans of the elephant or their new orange mascot. The proper term is: Bigoted cheeto This is good. I support this name.
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On November 05 2016 06:59 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 06:58 Mohdoo wrote:On November 05 2016 06:53 Slaughter wrote: I don't see trump.winning Mi....people here aren't to keen on Republicans at the moment with how shit our governor has been. It is a state that goes back and forth a fair bit but right now I would say people aren't fans of the elephant or their new orange mascot. The proper term is: Bigoted cheeto This is good. I support this name.
i prefer cheeto benito
On November 05 2016 06:25 xDaunt wrote: And now there's a poll from Pennsylvania showing that state is tied.
im anticipating the karl roving.
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On November 05 2016 05:30 xDaunt wrote: The mere fact that there's a poll out there showing Trump tied with Hillary in Michigan should give democrats pause. Trump will win Michigan. Black turnout down in every state. Trump picking up huge numbers of white middle class registered democrats. Trump denouncing free trade agreements that have destroyed cities like Detroit and Flint through offshoring. Michigan is the perfect state for him, I'm surprised he's not 50 points up there.
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On November 05 2016 06:42 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 06:25 xDaunt wrote: And now there's a poll from Pennsylvania showing that state is tied. You get that this is the exact thing pretty much everyone will tell you not to do with polls, right? Look at a bunch of them, find an outlier, pick it up and wave it around for everyone to see? It's the literal definition of cherry-picking. If your point is that liberals should stop thinking they have this election in the bag, you're right, they should, but even if that's what you're arguing this is an extremely ineffective way to do it
In defense of cherry pickers, I'm pretty certain that job is hard. Assuming you're a laborer.
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