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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5747

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 03:24:10
October 24 2016 03:17 GMT
#114921
It's been well documented iirc that what people say they want, and what they actually want and will respond to, differ.

they should also consider that outsiders are an outsider for a reason, and they may not be able to do anything useful.

it'd help if the system was better at providing good choices, sadly it is not optimally setup for that.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Probe1
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States17920 Posts
October 24 2016 03:18 GMT
#114922
On October 24 2016 11:56 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 11:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On October 24 2016 10:56 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Hillary campaign recommends poll oversampling in new Podesta wikileaks email.

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551


1. Whether or not this guy- Tom- wants oversampling for a specific poll, every other poll has already corroborated Hillary's lead, as have aggregate sites like 538.

2. As an aside, how are we establishing the validity of any of these WikiLeak reveals in general? It's insanely easy to doctor an e-mail, so why are all of these assumed to be real and not fake?


Wikileaks has released over 10,000,000 documents. Not a single one has ever been doctored or faked. Despite Clinton's camps claims, there is no reason whatsoever to believe they aren't genuine.

Unless one wants to just take Joel Benenson and Donna Brazile at their word (despite not being able to show the fake emails they claim wikileaks released).

The "fake" narrative is absolutely ridiculous. People can dismiss the confirmations of what many suspected all along as no big deal, but the folks from HRC's camp pushing this "well they could be fake" stuff is disinformation propaganda all the way.

EDIT: What I don't get, is why even bother claiming they could be fake if there's nothing significant in them anyway?

I have no idea how you can make a claim like that. It's not that I think wikileaks are fabricating or manipulating emails. They're getting leaks from third parties who could do anything they like with it. They could delete half an email. They could add in shit.

If the basis for a criminal trial against you was a wikileak document the first thing you'd say was it was fake. But if it's a trial in the court of public opinion then wikileaks is infallible because of how unverifiable the proof is.

I don't have a bone to pick with any particular document but damn, that is rather risky to blindly accept everything is truthful in spite of the secrecy around it.

우정호 KT_VIOLET 1988 - 2012 While we are postponing, life speeds by
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
October 24 2016 03:54 GMT
#114923
Honestly, the only leak that seemed to have any real consequence was the DNC leak. The rest just fed into narratives that people were already predisposed to support anyways.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23580 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:01:50
October 24 2016 03:59 GMT
#114924
On October 24 2016 12:18 Probe1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 11:56 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 24 2016 11:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On October 24 2016 10:56 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Hillary campaign recommends poll oversampling in new Podesta wikileaks email.

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551


1. Whether or not this guy- Tom- wants oversampling for a specific poll, every other poll has already corroborated Hillary's lead, as have aggregate sites like 538.

2. As an aside, how are we establishing the validity of any of these WikiLeak reveals in general? It's insanely easy to doctor an e-mail, so why are all of these assumed to be real and not fake?


Wikileaks has released over 10,000,000 documents. Not a single one has ever been doctored or faked. Despite Clinton's camps claims, there is no reason whatsoever to believe they aren't genuine.

Unless one wants to just take Joel Benenson and Donna Brazile at their word (despite not being able to show the fake emails they claim wikileaks released).

The "fake" narrative is absolutely ridiculous. People can dismiss the confirmations of what many suspected all along as no big deal, but the folks from HRC's camp pushing this "well they could be fake" stuff is disinformation propaganda all the way.

EDIT: What I don't get, is why even bother claiming they could be fake if there's nothing significant in them anyway?

I have no idea how you can make a claim like that. It's not that I think wikileaks are fabricating or manipulating emails. They're getting leaks from third parties who could do anything they like with it. They could delete half an email. They could add in shit.

If the basis for a criminal trial against you was a wikileak document the first thing you'd say was it was fake. But if it's a trial in the court of public opinion then wikileaks is infallible because of how unverifiable the proof is.

I don't have a bone to pick with any particular document but damn, that is rather risky to blindly accept everything is truthful in spite of the secrecy around it.



I'd take the veracity of wikileaks documents over the word of any politician. Statistically that would be the wise position. That documents can be manipulated is less relevant when they've already published millions of documents without a single such case.

I'm not "blindly accepting everything", it's only reasonable to presume they are real/undoctored unless shown to be otherwise.

+ Show Spoiler +
It's actually amusing though that I get ridiculed for distrusting Hillary, not speaking about you specifically (who's been shown to have lied on multiple occasions) but it's totally reasonable to distrust Wikileaks emails when they have 10m+ published documents without a single case of being faked or doctored. The "secrecy" part is particularly funny.


"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:11:50
October 24 2016 04:06 GMT
#114925
On October 24 2016 11:53 Ghostcom wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 11:45 Nevuk wrote:
On October 24 2016 11:33 zlefin wrote:
nevuk -> what seems weird about it? it looks fairly normal to me. people being reckless with new technology.
also, if that site is trying to be respectable they shouldn't replace an s with a z; replacing s with z basically screams bad site and/or not serious.

I know, I hate that sites name but they've done some decent work in the past.

The weird part to me is why are they flying a drone in the first place? It seems bizarre. I guess it's just a sign of the changing times that I haven't kept up with, was shocking to hear that a group of protesters are flying drones and that police are having to shoot them out of the sky.

I was interested in the long-term implications of that sort of issue - specifically, is it proper to fly a drone for that sort of purpose, were the police justified in shooting it down either way, are drones going to be frequently used by protesters?


Most countries have a law concerning where you are allowed to fly model airplanes and drones (no idea about the US). Usually it isn't legal in the city because of the obvious dangers. On top of those, the drone was supposedly flying towards a helicopter. Of course they were justified in shooting it down.

Drones are regulated by the FAA and people cannot fly them over private or posted property. And they are not allowed to fly them in areas with other aircraft. People have won court cases for shooting down drones flying over private property without express approval to do so. So the police were likely in the right for ending that drone.

GH: There is no need for a smoking gun to not trust wikileaks. We just need to look at the guy in charge and ask if taking that person on good faith is a reasonable thing to do. And lets not forget that people have to sign NDAs to work for wikileaks.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/wikileaks-nda-proves-why-we-need-a-wikileaks-free-of-julian-assange/
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:19:36
October 24 2016 04:13 GMT
#114926
On October 24 2016 12:54 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly, the only leak that seemed to have any real consequence was the DNC leak. The rest just fed into narratives that people were already predisposed to support anyways.

Support or bury, depending on the person. It sets a useful higher standard for her supporters that claim they have misgivings but ardently believe her campaign spin. But you're right that most people have made up their mind by now. The leaks will have major consequence for investigative journalists later; as Clinton appointees from diplomats up to major administration officials can be cross-referenced with names off Podesta's donor interactions.

The biggest one I saw last week wasn't even email hacks, it was the FBI's dump. And Reuters reported on it, as if the wonders would ever cease this year. AP on Clinton Foundation Donor access & Reuters on attempted email coverup & interagency quid pro quo negotiations.

State Department official 'pressured' FBI to declassify Clinton email: FBI documents

A senior State Department official sought to shield Hillary Clinton last year by pressuring the FBI to drop its insistence that an email on the private server she used while secretary of state contained classified information, according to records of interviews with FBI officials released on Monday.

The accusation against Patrick Kennedy, the State Department's most senior manager, appears in the latest release of interview summaries from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's year-long investigation into Clinton's sending and receiving classified government secrets via her unauthorized server.

Although the FBI decided against declassifying the email's contents, the claim of interference added fuel to Republicans' belief that officials in President Barack Obama's administration have sought to protect Clinton, a Democrat, from criminal liability as she seeks to succeed Obama in the Nov. 8 election. The FBI recommended against bringing any charges in July and has defended the integrity of its investigation.

Clinton has said her decision to use a private server in her home for her work as the U.S. secretary of state from 2009 to 2013 was a mistake and has apologized.

One FBI official, whose name is redacted, told investigators that Kennedy repeatedly "pressured" the various officials at the FBI to declassify information in one of Clinton's emails. The email was about the deadly 2012 attack on a U.S. compound in Benghazi, Libya, and included information that originated from the FBI, which meant that the FBI had final say on whether it would remain classified.


Ok, best Podesta of the stack too:
[On green energy plans]
Billionaire NextGen Climate Action head Tom Steyer: Check the polling we released. This is very popular w the American people. And then check the scientific news. This issue is blowing up. It is by far the most urgent issue in my home state. 48 percent rank it at number 1.

Podesta: You and I have different perspectives. I wish you luck.

Steyer: have now read the paper. Didn't think Next Gen article was bad for you guys.

Podesta: I am deep in the middle of dealing with getting fucked by the NYT, but I didn't expect to get fucked by you in the NYT. Thanks a lot for jumping us. I hope President Bush helps you reach your climate goals. PS great picture.

Not damaging, just impressive. Donor relations guru.


Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:31:30
October 24 2016 04:30 GMT
#114927


Someone didnt read the release time email. You need to keep up with those office emails about when the stolen information will be released.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9149 Posts
October 24 2016 04:33 GMT
#114928
On October 24 2016 13:30 Plansix wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/adamsmith_usa/status/790366675216502784


Someone didnt read the release time email. You need to keep up with those office emails.

Or they tweeted about it >30m after they put it up on the site, seems like the simpler explanation
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:41:00
October 24 2016 04:37 GMT
#114929
On October 24 2016 13:33 Dan HH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 13:30 Plansix wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/adamsmith_usa/status/790366675216502784


Someone didnt read the release time email. You need to keep up with those office emails.

Or they tweeted about it >30m after they put it up on the site, seems like the simpler explanation

Then Russian state media had a full story up on the real quick, because they didn't link to Wikileaks. One would expect a real news agency to spend at least a couple of hours reading the emails before being able to write a story about it. I suppose half an hour might be long enough for some no content click bait.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
October 24 2016 04:37 GMT
#114930
The twits that reply to this one mention that it was up on the Wikileaks site before they twitted about it.

10/10 would pass on non-stories through Twitter again.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23580 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:42:33
October 24 2016 04:40 GMT
#114931
On October 24 2016 13:06 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 11:53 Ghostcom wrote:
On October 24 2016 11:45 Nevuk wrote:
On October 24 2016 11:33 zlefin wrote:
nevuk -> what seems weird about it? it looks fairly normal to me. people being reckless with new technology.
also, if that site is trying to be respectable they shouldn't replace an s with a z; replacing s with z basically screams bad site and/or not serious.

I know, I hate that sites name but they've done some decent work in the past.

The weird part to me is why are they flying a drone in the first place? It seems bizarre. I guess it's just a sign of the changing times that I haven't kept up with, was shocking to hear that a group of protesters are flying drones and that police are having to shoot them out of the sky.

I was interested in the long-term implications of that sort of issue - specifically, is it proper to fly a drone for that sort of purpose, were the police justified in shooting it down either way, are drones going to be frequently used by protesters?


Most countries have a law concerning where you are allowed to fly model airplanes and drones (no idea about the US). Usually it isn't legal in the city because of the obvious dangers. On top of those, the drone was supposedly flying towards a helicopter. Of course they were justified in shooting it down.

Drones are regulated by the FAA and people cannot fly them over private or posted property. And they are not allowed to fly them in areas with other aircraft. People have won court cases for shooting down drones flying over private property without express approval to do so. So the police were likely in the right for ending that drone.

GH: There is no need for a smoking gun to not trust wikileaks. We just need to look at the guy in charge and ask if taking that person on good faith is a reasonable thing to do. And lets not forget that people have to sign NDAs to work for wikileaks.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/wikileaks-nda-proves-why-we-need-a-wikileaks-free-of-julian-assange/


There is no need for a smoking gun to not trust Hillary Clinton. We just need to look at her and ask if taking her on good faith is a reasonable thing to do.

Assange may be a tool, but again, that has no bearing on the veracity of the documents. The irony of the reasoning used to distrust Assange and the emails from Hillary supporters isn't lost on me.
On October 24 2016 13:33 Dan HH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 13:30 Plansix wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/adamsmith_usa/status/790366675216502784


Someone didnt read the release time email. You need to keep up with those office emails.

Or they tweeted about it >30m after they put it up on the site, seems like the simpler explanation


Which is what happened. But that doesn't fit the vast right wing conspiracy + Russia narrative as well.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Blisse
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada3710 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:55:13
October 24 2016 04:44 GMT
#114932
https://theintercept.com/2016/10/19/is-disclosure-of-podestas-emails-a-step-too-far-a-conversation-with-naomi-klein/

I have a somewhat related article I found made a fair argument (unrelated to the fakeness).

It's hard to question the validity of the leaked documents, because there's absolutely no proof that if the emails are real or fake. All you have is the credibility of WikiLeaks (1), and the idea that a lot of the emails are so boring and some of them so on point that all of them must be real (2).

With (2), the problem is there may be only a single faked, incriminating email sneaked in, which you have to defend with (1), the integrity of WikiLeaks. Again you absolutely have no proof that it's real or fake.

So the problem with (1) is that this is the first time that WikiLeaks is being political about it. Imagine that they did not release a follow-up email that clarified the incriminating email (if it were not faked), or removed clarifying sentences. Imagine they did fake something. They have changed the way they're approaching releasing documents in a way where they have shown a real, extreme preference for one candidate, and IMO that's the heart of the matter.

Also part of the ideas in the article I linked.


-snip-

GG: But let me ask you this. We started out by saying that with this particular leak, because of WikiLeaks’ philosophy, the hacker went in and grabbed everything, which sometimes hackers will do even if they’re well-intentioned — because you don’t have time to grab only the relevant material, you hope that the people to whom you then give the material are going to do that. That was Snowden’s theory: I’m going to take as much as I can but make sure I’m only giving it to journalists who promise to safeguard the material and let the public see the stuff they should see, not what they shouldn’t.
Let’s say you had a good faith hacker who said, “I’m going to take all of John Podesta’s emails and I’m just going to download them. And instead of giving them to WikiLeaks, I’m going to give them to this organization and tell this organization, ‘What I want you to do is go through them and get rid of the ones where John Podesta is talking about the emotional difficulties staff members are having, or personal conversations he’s having with family members or friends, and pick the ones that really shed light on what the Clinton campaign is doing that affects public policy and discourse.’” Would you have qualms about that process?

NK: No. I think they set themselves up for the bank speeches coming out because they refused to release them. They should have released them, and what’s interesting is that some of the most relevant, newsworthy information is not in email traffic — it’s in documents like that. Or, for instance, an attachment that’s a transcript of Hillary Clinton’s conversations behind closed doors with labor leaders in which she says that climate activists should “get a life” rather than coming to her events. That’s not an email. To me, that doesn’t fall into the same category. I wouldn’t have a problem with it if it were curated.

It’s also the way in which it’s being released, to clearly maximize damage, and the recklessness about the implications of that when it comes to electing Trump. You’ve written about how dangerous it is for media organizations to take such a highly political approach to this election because they don’t want Trump to get elected, so they’re engaging in what you described as “journalistic fraud.” I agree with you.
But we have to acknowledge how political WikiLeaks and Julian are being here.

GG: It’s interesting. All we can do is speculate because it involves what’s going on in somebody else’s head, in this particular case, a person who’s even in the best of times quite complicated, who’s been trapped in a single room for five years, who literally has not seen the outdoors in many years, and who doesn’t have much of a future to see one shortly — so it’s hard to assess what’s going on in the mind of a person like that.

Still, as somebody who does know Julian, and that includes you and me as well to varying degrees, are you persuaded by this idea that Julian’s goal here is this conventionally partisan objective, that he has simply sided with the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate and is doing what he can to help Trump? Or do you think it’s more about Julian harboring a substantive philosophical animosity toward U.S. empire and U.S. hegemony as a force for evil in the world, and looking for any opportunity to undermine and burn it?

To the extent that Hillary Clinton represents that, that she’s a target of his anger, on top of his view of her as desiring his imprisonment and therefore there’s this personal anger too — that goal isn’t the way Paul Begala wants the Democrat to win and the Republican to lose. I don’t think Julian has these simple partisan motives. I think it’s more about wanting to see things burn, out of a combination of political philosophy and personal resentment. I’m curious what you think about that.

NK: I don’t know. I don’t know him well. I’ve met him and I’m not sure I can answer that. I have to be perfectly honest with you, Glenn, I’m actually nervous about it, because there is clearly a vendetta element going on, which is understandable, because Hillary Clinton’s State Department is massively responsible for his lack of freedom. So I can understand that, but at the same time, Assange is not the only person who has lost their freedom for standing up for their beliefs.

-snip-
There is no one like you in the universe.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:53:54
October 24 2016 04:49 GMT
#114933
So Russian state tv has their staff camping Wikileaks and slams out stories the instant something is posted? The same informant that the US intelligence agencies say was stolen by Russia.

I'm ok with accepting the emails are all legit, but are people really going to argue that Wikileaks isn't working with Russian intelligence services? They barely try to hid it.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 04:54:37
October 24 2016 04:54 GMT
#114934
I personally think they are and have thought so for the past 2-3 years, but if you're trying to prove it you need better than an unreliable twit to do so.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 24 2016 04:57 GMT
#114935
On October 24 2016 13:54 LegalLord wrote:
I personally think they are and have thought so for the past 2-3 years, but if you're trying to prove it you need better than an unreliable twit to do so.

It was clear from my tone in the post I was poking fun at a social media screw up, rather than citing it as the final smoking gun proving it all.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23580 Posts
October 24 2016 04:57 GMT
#114936
On October 24 2016 13:49 Plansix wrote:
So Russian state tv has their staff camping Wikileaks and slams out stories the instant something is posted? The same informant that the US intelligence agencies say was stolen by Russia.

I'm ok with accepting the emails are all legit, but are people really going to argue that Wikileaks isn't working with Russian intelligence services? They barely try to hid it.


I don't know, have they been convicted of anything? Sounds like speculation to me. Could be though, is there any concrete evidence or just tweets and speculation?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
October 24 2016 05:00 GMT
#114937
On October 24 2016 13:57 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 13:54 LegalLord wrote:
I personally think they are and have thought so for the past 2-3 years, but if you're trying to prove it you need better than an unreliable twit to do so.

It was clear from my tone in the post I was poking fun at a social media screw up, rather than citing it as the final smoking gun proving it all.

That 99% of these "Twitter bombshells" turn out to be bunk has led me to be rather unwilling to consider them to be worth paying any attention to.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 05:10:59
October 24 2016 05:05 GMT
#114938
On October 24 2016 14:00 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 13:57 Plansix wrote:
On October 24 2016 13:54 LegalLord wrote:
I personally think they are and have thought so for the past 2-3 years, but if you're trying to prove it you need better than an unreliable twit to do so.

It was clear from my tone in the post I was poking fun at a social media screw up, rather than citing it as the final smoking gun proving it all.

That 99% of these "Twitter bombshells" turn out to be bunk has led me to be rather unwilling to consider them to be worth paying any attention to.

All right, fine. My attempt to poke fun at Russian state media fell flat. We can't win them all.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
CatharsisUT
Profile Joined March 2011
United States487 Posts
October 24 2016 05:18 GMT
#114939
On October 24 2016 10:56 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Hillary campaign recommends poll oversampling in new Podesta wikileaks email.

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551


This whole wikileaks thing is like a "clueless commenter" detector. Oversampling is a technique to get greater precision on certain groups when you do a poll. It does not change how you weight those results once you obtain them.

Here's a link in case you would like to become informed.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1399 Posts
October 24 2016 06:09 GMT
#114940
https://www.yahoo.com/news/kaine-sees-working-gop-key-post-election-healing-191239039--election.html

This is just weird,clinton talks to cain once a week?
2 more weeks and the most horrible candidate in history will be elected president. Why did biden not run? wasn't it common practice that the vice president ran for president after 8 year term?
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