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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5749

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Trainrunnef
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States599 Posts
October 24 2016 13:16 GMT
#114961
On October 24 2016 20:58 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
If Russia is somehow working with Trump then why did Trump run an anti-Putin ad calling him an "opponent" of the US?



Was that ad even made by the trump campaign directly or was it from a superpac?
I am, therefore I pee
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 13:23:37
October 24 2016 13:20 GMT
#114962
On October 24 2016 20:58 xM(Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 19:41 Gorsameth wrote:
On October 24 2016 19:30 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
On October 24 2016 13:57 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 24 2016 13:49 Plansix wrote:
So Russian state tv has their staff camping Wikileaks and slams out stories the instant something is posted? The same informant that the US intelligence agencies say was stolen by Russia.

I'm ok with accepting the emails are all legit, but are people really going to argue that Wikileaks isn't working with Russian intelligence services? They barely try to hid it.


I don't know, have they been convicted of anything? Sounds like speculation to me. Could be though, is there any concrete evidence or just tweets and speculation?

No evidence Russia is behind the hacks.
Could just as easily have been a disgruntled Sanders voter who lives in his parents basement....
Clinton really needs to calm down with her Russia conspiracy theories.

Except for the bit where the US government and every expert says it has all the signs of being a Russian hack.
A statement that, considering the current tensions between the US and Russia would not be made lightly.

You know, just minor details.

that is exactly why the Gov. made that statement; to escalate tensions, get more people aboard the hate train.
anyway, this dude https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Binney_(U.S._intelligence_official) says that "a disgruntled U.S. intelligence worker" did it; Putin also said he didn't do it:
Show nested quote +
“But I want to tell you again, I don’t know anything about it, and on a state level Russia has never done this.”
.
when in a he said she said situation you just choose your side; no need to feel righteous about it tho.


When in a he said she said I side with:

-Air Force Intelligence
-Army Intelligence
-The CIA
-Coast Guard Intelligence
-The Defense Intelligence Agency
-The Department of Energy's Office over Intelligence and Counterintelligence
-The Department of Homeland Security
-Department of State
-The Department of the Treasury's Office of Intelligence and Analysis
-The DEA
-The FBI
-Marine Corps Intelligence
-The National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
-The National Reconnaissance Office
-The Central Security Service
-Navy Intelligence

And the U.S. Director of Intelligence over Putin and someone talking out his ass. Because, you know, it's their job. Kind of like saying you believe the fortune teller told you you have a big lifeline over the doctor saying your cancer is terminal.

On October 24 2016 20:55 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 19:40 Plansix wrote:
Nettles continues to struggle with reality, since the US intelligence agencies have said it was Russia.

What evidence? Can Clinton even name all 17 agencies she claims are investigating?
Were these the same US intelligence agencies that claimed WMDs were in Iraq?


I don't know why you're dead set on dying on this hill, but no. WMDs were not unanimously claimed to be in Iraq by the intelligence community. The CIA even cast doubt that he had WMDs, which you can see here. But I don't really expect you to reconsider your stances in light of evidence.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 24 2016 13:25 GMT
#114963
On October 24 2016 22:08 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 21:37 biology]major wrote:
www.wsj.com

+ Show Spoiler +
The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.

Campaign finance records show Mr. McAuliffe’s political-action committee donated $467,500 to the 2015 state Senate campaign of Dr. Jill McCabe, who is married to Andrew McCabe, now the deputy director of the FBI.


Coincidence?

In fairness, it's all pretty incestuous in Politics at that level.

Without more details on how he was involved with the investigation, it is hard to say. The FBI deals with a lot of cases, so he could have avoided being involved with that specific case. Still, I would have expected the FBI to be more up front on the topic and say that their deputy director is married to a democrat running for senate, so he won’t be involved with the investigation.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4329 Posts
October 24 2016 13:25 GMT
#114964
Professor who correctly predicted the last 5 elections says Trump has 87% chance of winning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
CatharsisUT
Profile Joined March 2011
United States487 Posts
October 24 2016 13:29 GMT
#114965
Wait he only looks at New Hampshire and South Carolina? I'd need to read a longer article to understand that choice, anyone know why?
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11498 Posts
October 24 2016 13:30 GMT
#114966
On October 24 2016 22:25 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Professor who correctly predicted the last 5 elections says Trump has 87% chance of winning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0


There are a lot of professors in the US. And if i just randomly guess, i have a 1/32 chance of correctly predicting 5 elections in a row without any knowledge whatsoever about the politics at hand, simply because you have a two party system in the US.

So out of 100 professors who have no clue about elections, you can still expect 3 to be correct about the last 5 of them. Now, just ask enough professors, and you will find one that was correct for the last 5 elections and says what you want to hear.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
October 24 2016 13:31 GMT
#114967
Both states have been assigned varying levels of bellwether status by election analysts depending on their outlook. However, to look only at those two states is silly, which is likely how this dude ended up getting posted by nettles
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4329 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 13:41:19
October 24 2016 13:40 GMT
#114968
On October 24 2016 22:20 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 20:58 xM(Z wrote:
On October 24 2016 19:41 Gorsameth wrote:
On October 24 2016 19:30 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
On October 24 2016 13:57 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 24 2016 13:49 Plansix wrote:
So Russian state tv has their staff camping Wikileaks and slams out stories the instant something is posted? The same informant that the US intelligence agencies say was stolen by Russia.

I'm ok with accepting the emails are all legit, but are people really going to argue that Wikileaks isn't working with Russian intelligence services? They barely try to hid it.


I don't know, have they been convicted of anything? Sounds like speculation to me. Could be though, is there any concrete evidence or just tweets and speculation?

No evidence Russia is behind the hacks.
Could just as easily have been a disgruntled Sanders voter who lives in his parents basement....
Clinton really needs to calm down with her Russia conspiracy theories.

Except for the bit where the US government and every expert says it has all the signs of being a Russian hack.
A statement that, considering the current tensions between the US and Russia would not be made lightly.

You know, just minor details.

that is exactly why the Gov. made that statement; to escalate tensions, get more people aboard the hate train.
anyway, this dude https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Binney_(U.S._intelligence_official) says that "a disgruntled U.S. intelligence worker" did it; Putin also said he didn't do it:
“But I want to tell you again, I don’t know anything about it, and on a state level Russia has never done this.”
.
when in a he said she said situation you just choose your side; no need to feel righteous about it tho.


When in a he said she said I side with:

-Air Force Intelligence
-Army Intelligence
-The CIA
-Coast Guard Intelligence
-The Defense Intelligence Agency
-The Department of Energy's Office over Intelligence and Counterintelligence
-The Department of Homeland Security
-Department of State
-The Department of the Treasury's Office of Intelligence and Analysis
-The DEA
-The FBI
-Marine Corps Intelligence
-The National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
-The National Reconnaissance Office
-The Central Security Service
-Navy Intelligence

And the U.S. Director of Intelligence over Putin and someone talking out his ass. Because, you know, it's their job. Kind of like saying you believe the fortune teller told you you have a big lifeline over the doctor saying your cancer is terminal.

Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 20:55 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
On October 24 2016 19:40 Plansix wrote:
Nettles continues to struggle with reality, since the US intelligence agencies have said it was Russia.

What evidence? Can Clinton even name all 17 agencies she claims are investigating?
Were these the same US intelligence agencies that claimed WMDs were in Iraq?


I don't know why you're dead set on dying on this hill, but no. WMDs were not unanimously claimed to be in Iraq by the intelligence community. The CIA even cast doubt that he had WMDs, which you can see here. But I don't really expect you to reconsider your stances in light of evidence.

Did you read what the US head of intelligence actually SAID or are you just re-parroting HuffPo talking points?
James Clapper, Head of US Intelligence :

Some states have also recently seen scanning and probing of their election-related systems, which in most cases originated from servers operated by a Russian company. However, we are not now in a position to attribute this activity to the Russian Government.

Nothing to suggest the Russian government is involved at this stage so if Clinton could stop mentioning Putin every five seconds that'd be great.Enough with the conspiracy theories.

Plus it hardly matters what was written in secret documents.The issue here is the narrative given by the US president at the time and the Government at large was that Iraq was being invaded due to Saddam having WMDs.This despite UN weapons inspectors finding nothing.What is there to debate here, it's all common knowledge at this point.The public was lied to.You are putting your trust in organisations that have lied repeatedly on a massive scale, leading to the death and misery of millions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 24 2016 13:41 GMT
#114969
On October 24 2016 22:30 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 22:25 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Professor who correctly predicted the last 5 elections says Trump has 87% chance of winning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0


There are a lot of professors in the US. And if i just randomly guess, i have a 1/32 chance of correctly predicting 5 elections in a row without any knowledge whatsoever about the politics at hand, simply because you have a two party system in the US.

So out of 100 professors who have no clue about elections, you can still expect 3 to be correct about the last 5 of them. Now, just ask enough professors, and you will find one that was correct for the last 5 elections and says what you want to hear.


given 2008 and 1996 were complete gimmes, it's more like 1/8. now what we really need is to get that squid which picks the world series to try.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States44255 Posts
October 24 2016 13:45 GMT
#114970
On October 24 2016 22:41 ticklishmusic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 22:30 Simberto wrote:
On October 24 2016 22:25 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Professor who correctly predicted the last 5 elections says Trump has 87% chance of winning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0


There are a lot of professors in the US. And if i just randomly guess, i have a 1/32 chance of correctly predicting 5 elections in a row without any knowledge whatsoever about the politics at hand, simply because you have a two party system in the US.

So out of 100 professors who have no clue about elections, you can still expect 3 to be correct about the last 5 of them. Now, just ask enough professors, and you will find one that was correct for the last 5 elections and says what you want to hear.


given 2008 and 1996 were complete gimmes, it's more like 1/8. now what we really need is to get that squid which picks the world series to try.


I love how some people think a comparable argument to "all of the polls and aggregates, including those run by professional statisticians" is "but this one other guy is a pretty decent guesser at things". Clearly it's a wash.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 14:03:12
October 24 2016 13:58 GMT
#114971
On October 24 2016 22:20 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 20:58 xM(Z wrote:
On October 24 2016 19:41 Gorsameth wrote:
On October 24 2016 19:30 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
On October 24 2016 13:57 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 24 2016 13:49 Plansix wrote:
So Russian state tv has their staff camping Wikileaks and slams out stories the instant something is posted? The same informant that the US intelligence agencies say was stolen by Russia.

I'm ok with accepting the emails are all legit, but are people really going to argue that Wikileaks isn't working with Russian intelligence services? They barely try to hid it.


I don't know, have they been convicted of anything? Sounds like speculation to me. Could be though, is there any concrete evidence or just tweets and speculation?

No evidence Russia is behind the hacks.
Could just as easily have been a disgruntled Sanders voter who lives in his parents basement....
Clinton really needs to calm down with her Russia conspiracy theories.

Except for the bit where the US government and every expert says it has all the signs of being a Russian hack.
A statement that, considering the current tensions between the US and Russia would not be made lightly.

You know, just minor details.

that is exactly why the Gov. made that statement; to escalate tensions, get more people aboard the hate train.
anyway, this dude https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Binney_(U.S._intelligence_official) says that "a disgruntled U.S. intelligence worker" did it; Putin also said he didn't do it:
“But I want to tell you again, I don’t know anything about it, and on a state level Russia has never done this.”
.
when in a he said she said situation you just choose your side; no need to feel righteous about it tho.


When in a he said she said I side with:

-Air Force Intelligence
-Army Intelligence
-The CIA
-Coast Guard Intelligence
-The Defense Intelligence Agency
-The Department of Energy's Office over Intelligence and Counterintelligence
-The Department of Homeland Security
-Department of State
-The Department of the Treasury's Office of Intelligence and Analysis
-The DEA
-The FBI
-Marine Corps Intelligence
-The National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
-The National Reconnaissance Office
-The Central Security Service
-Navy Intelligence

And the U.S. Director of Intelligence over Putin and someone talking out his ass. Because, you know, it's their job. Kind of like saying you believe the fortune teller told you you have a big lifeline over the doctor saying your cancer is terminal.
that is your side, literally; all of them.
the statement https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/215-press-releases-2016/1423-joint-dhs-odni-election-security-statement
The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts.
and that's it, the rest is about protecting your election system by bringing DHS into the mix.
well, how about this for a tin foil? - use the hack scandal to bring in Homeland Security to rig the elections; it's fucking brilliant.

honestly, i don't care what you believe in but if you, based on those beliefs, will try and fix another part of the world, don't be surprised if you'll have bullets, bombs and planes coming your way.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 14:03:27
October 24 2016 14:02 GMT
#114972
That's not a "fucking brilliant" plan, it's fucking terrible one because elections are individually managed by each state and are accordingly almost impossible to rig on the part of a single federal agency.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 14:06:18
October 24 2016 14:04 GMT
#114973
each individual state will have its own cyber-security provided by yours truly DHS(if the state requests it).
you rig it locally.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 14:16:06
October 24 2016 14:06 GMT
#114974
Honestly, ever since Iraq I have lost all confidence in statements from the US government that include words such as "we are confident" or "we are certain".

The US government lies or is dishonest when it suits them. Just like any other government. When they say "we are confident the Russian government directed the attack", that means absolute shit. They might not even have any actual evidence, and are just assuming the Russian government is pulling the strings behind the attacks. It could just as easily be someone else entirely financing the company that is executing the hacks or owns the botnet used to attack.
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
October 24 2016 14:08 GMT
#114975
if you think that even a single US state would willingly allow the feds to get their fingers into their election management, you know less about this country than your tin foil hat lets on.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21654 Posts
October 24 2016 14:09 GMT
#114976
On October 24 2016 23:04 xM(Z wrote:
each individual state will have its own cyber-security provided by yours truly DHS(if the state requests it).
you rig it locally.

Yes, a country the size of the US. with god knows how many voting districts is being rigged by the DHS in a massive conspiracy involving thousands of volunteer civilians all working together to elected the demon Hillary Clinton. Despite her holding a seemingly insurmountable lead in polls.

Makes complete sense...

Don't we have some mod rules about retarded tin foil theories?
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 14:13:51
October 24 2016 14:13 GMT
#114977
On October 24 2016 23:08 farvacola wrote:
if you think that even a single US state would willingly allow the feds to get their fingers into their election management, you know less about this country than your tin foil hat lets on.

last time i checked you had 33 states and 11 counties contracting DHS for cyber-security related measures.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11498 Posts
October 24 2016 14:15 GMT
#114978
On October 24 2016 23:09 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 23:04 xM(Z wrote:
each individual state will have its own cyber-security provided by yours truly DHS(if the state requests it).
you rig it locally.

Yes, a country the size of the US. with god knows how many voting districts is being rigged by the DHS in a massive conspiracy involving thousands of volunteer civilians all working together to elected the demon Hillary Clinton. Despite her holding a seemingly insurmountable lead in polls.

Makes complete sense...

Don't we have some mod rules about retarded tin foil theories?


It is also such an incredibly ineffective way to rig the US elections. If i wanted to rig the US elections, i wouldn't even touch the elections themselves. Just make sure that both the republican and the democrat candidate are in your bag. Much easier to achieve then just getting one of them and then rigging the general election.
Yoav
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1874 Posts
October 24 2016 14:15 GMT
#114979
On October 24 2016 23:04 xM(Z wrote:
each individual state will have its own cyber-security provided by yours truly DHS(if the state requests it).
you rig it locally.


You're in the DHS?
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 14:16:57
October 24 2016 14:16 GMT
#114980
On October 24 2016 23:15 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 24 2016 23:09 Gorsameth wrote:
On October 24 2016 23:04 xM(Z wrote:
each individual state will have its own cyber-security provided by yours truly DHS(if the state requests it).
you rig it locally.

Yes, a country the size of the US. with god knows how many voting districts is being rigged by the DHS in a massive conspiracy involving thousands of volunteer civilians all working together to elected the demon Hillary Clinton. Despite her holding a seemingly insurmountable lead in polls.

Makes complete sense...

Don't we have some mod rules about retarded tin foil theories?


It is also such an incredibly ineffective way to rig the US elections. If i wanted to rig the US elections, i wouldn't even touch the elections themselves. Just make sure that both the republican and the democrat candidate are in your bag. Much easier to achieve then just getting one of them and then rigging the general election.
both republicans and democrats were in your bag ... but then came Trump.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
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