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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5460

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Hexe
Profile Joined August 2014
United States332 Posts
October 10 2016 02:52 GMT
#109181
On October 10 2016 11:50 Orome wrote:
i remember being disgusted 8 years ago by how much of a shitshow the us presidential debates were

lol

dude what? McCain vs Obama was pretty good, but lopsided. Romney vs Obama debates were like shakespeare vs this.
Stratos_speAr
Profile Joined May 2009
United States6959 Posts
October 10 2016 02:52 GMT
#109182
On October 10 2016 11:51 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:50 jalstar wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:47 CorsairHero wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:46 GoTuNk! wrote:
I got the feeling Trump rolled over Hillary for the first part and won solidly the rest, but I'm too biased to judge.

He does seem to be back fully on the race though?

hes a long long way away from 50% chance of winning the election


He went from 19-20% to 23-24% on betting markets. Hillary had a 5-10 point spike after the first debate, don't remember exactly.

So yeah he needed to win by more.

Betting markets matter less than polling numbers. There are only so many undecided voters left. Plus the RNC isn't really supporting him, which means his ground game on election day could be terrible. These debates have diminishing returns as time goes on.


Betting markets are pretty smart, so it means something, but it also shows us that any win he had was, again, minor at best. Definitely not good enough.
A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World: he that has these two, has little more to wish for; and he that wants either of them, will be little the better for anything else.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 10 2016 02:53 GMT
#109183
On October 10 2016 11:51 parkufarku wrote:
Man. Both these choices are gross.

And to think, we had Bernie fuckin' Sanders available as a candidate. FDR of our generation. Thanks establishment for making that option unavailable and fucking that up.

But they would probably prefer Trump over Sanders.

I think you overstate bernie's potential. I also wouldn't really blame the establishment for it.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-10 02:54:09
October 10 2016 02:53 GMT
#109184
On October 10 2016 11:51 parkufarku wrote:
Man. Both these choices are gross.

And to think, we had Bernie fuckin' Sanders available as a candidate. FDR of our generation. Thanks establishment for making that option unavailable and fucking that up.


Well, I think Bernie shares some of the blame too (even though I voted for him). There were some missed opportunities and had he switched to a [D] earlier and worked with the party more I think he could have done it (I can see him and Gravel getting along).
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9135 Posts
October 10 2016 02:54 GMT
#109185
On October 10 2016 11:51 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:50 jalstar wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:47 CorsairHero wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:46 GoTuNk! wrote:
I got the feeling Trump rolled over Hillary for the first part and won solidly the rest, but I'm too biased to judge.

He does seem to be back fully on the race though?

hes a long long way away from 50% chance of winning the election


He went from 19-20% to 23-24% on betting markets. Hillary had a 5-10 point spike after the first debate, don't remember exactly.

So yeah he needed to win by more.

Betting markets matter less than polling numbers. There are only so many undecided voters left. Plus the RNC isn't really supporting him, which means his ground game on election day could be terrible. These debates have diminishing returns as time goes on.

His problem is that his ceiling in debates is 'not imploding', which is fine relative to expectations but not enough to recover as much ground as he needs to.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12318 Posts
October 10 2016 02:54 GMT
#109186
On October 10 2016 11:53 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:51 parkufarku wrote:
Man. Both these choices are gross.

And to think, we had Bernie fuckin' Sanders available as a candidate. FDR of our generation. Thanks establishment for making that option unavailable and fucking that up.


Well, I think Bernie shares some of the blame too (even though I voted for him). There were some missed opportunities and had he switched to a [D] earlier and worked with the party more I think he could have done it (I can see him and Gravel getting along).


Bernie planned to do what he eventually did. He wanted to have a great showing, then be in a position of strength to pressure Clinton into being more progressive.

At some point during the primary, he realized he could actually make it, and so he adapted and tried. But it was too late.
No will to live, no wish to die
OuchyDathurts
Profile Joined September 2010
United States4588 Posts
October 10 2016 02:54 GMT
#109187
On October 10 2016 11:52 Hexe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:50 Orome wrote:
i remember being disgusted 8 years ago by how much of a shitshow the us presidential debates were

lol

dude what? McCain vs Obama was pretty good, but lopsided. Romney vs Obama debates were like shakespeare vs this.


Kenyan Muslim Socialist Obama and Sarah Palin was a pretty low bar dude. Whats pathetic is apparently the bar could actually fall to the center of the earth in 8 years time and we already thought we were at rock bottom.
LiquidDota Staff
Monochromatic
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
United States998 Posts
October 10 2016 02:55 GMT
#109188
On October 10 2016 11:54 Dan HH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:51 Plansix wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:50 jalstar wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:47 CorsairHero wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:46 GoTuNk! wrote:
I got the feeling Trump rolled over Hillary for the first part and won solidly the rest, but I'm too biased to judge.

He does seem to be back fully on the race though?

hes a long long way away from 50% chance of winning the election


He went from 19-20% to 23-24% on betting markets. Hillary had a 5-10 point spike after the first debate, don't remember exactly.

So yeah he needed to win by more.

Betting markets matter less than polling numbers. There are only so many undecided voters left. Plus the RNC isn't really supporting him, which means his ground game on election day could be terrible. These debates have diminishing returns as time goes on.

His problem is that his ceiling in debates is 'not imploding', which is fine relative to expectations but not enough to recover as much ground as he needs to.


Out of curiosity, what do you think Clinton's ceiling in the debate is?

I.e. If Trump needs to not implode, what does Clinton need to do?
MC: "Guys I need your support! iam poor make me nerd baller" __________________________________________RIP Violet
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
Netherlands30548 Posts
October 10 2016 02:56 GMT
#109189
Do non-GOP or Democrat candidates get media coverage? Or are they fucked from the start?
Neosteel Enthusiast
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
October 10 2016 02:56 GMT
#109190
On October 10 2016 11:54 OuchyDathurts wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:52 Hexe wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:50 Orome wrote:
i remember being disgusted 8 years ago by how much of a shitshow the us presidential debates were

lol

dude what? McCain vs Obama was pretty good, but lopsided. Romney vs Obama debates were like shakespeare vs this.


Kenyan Muslim Socialist Obama and Sarah Palin was a pretty low bar dude. Whats pathetic is apparently the bar could actually fall to the center of the earth in 8 years time and we already thought we were at rock bottom.


Well, luckily none of those things came up at the Presidential debates. Biden did make Palin look pretty bad though (not nearly as bad as Paul Ryan).
GGTeMpLaR
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States7226 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-10 02:56:43
October 10 2016 02:56 GMT
#109191
On October 10 2016 11:55 Monochromatic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:54 Dan HH wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:51 Plansix wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:50 jalstar wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:47 CorsairHero wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:46 GoTuNk! wrote:
I got the feeling Trump rolled over Hillary for the first part and won solidly the rest, but I'm too biased to judge.

He does seem to be back fully on the race though?

hes a long long way away from 50% chance of winning the election


He went from 19-20% to 23-24% on betting markets. Hillary had a 5-10 point spike after the first debate, don't remember exactly.

So yeah he needed to win by more.

Betting markets matter less than polling numbers. There are only so many undecided voters left. Plus the RNC isn't really supporting him, which means his ground game on election day could be terrible. These debates have diminishing returns as time goes on.

His problem is that his ceiling in debates is 'not imploding', which is fine relative to expectations but not enough to recover as much ground as he needs to.


Out of curiosity, what do you think Clinton's ceiling in the debate is?

I.e. If Trump needs to not implode, what does Clinton need to do?


Come off as being real and not a politician-bot

On October 10 2016 11:56 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Do non-GOP or Democrat candidates get media coverage? Or are they fucked from the start?


They're completely fucked
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
October 10 2016 02:56 GMT
#109192
On October 10 2016 11:51 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:47 Netscape9 wrote:
Ultimately I think Trump won, he came out looking better. Clinton didn't look particular bad though, she was more neutral. All Trump really had to do in this was stop the surge of people abandoning him.


He needs to make up huge ground in the polls. At best, all his performance did was stem the gushing wound that his recording made. He definitely didn't make up any ground in the polls, which look horrendous for him.


Even then the only reason Trump seemed to have won is because the expectations were so low. His ability to talk about anything concrete or any specific policies is still non-existent. Sure he can still make Clinton look bad on a few issues, but when they're trading almost evenly it doesn't really seem like enough.

Trump's performance was just enough to keep him limping along at best.
Logo
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9241 Posts
October 10 2016 02:57 GMT
#109193
People who voted "Trump and I supported Hillary": why do you think Hillary lost?
You're now breathing manually
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
October 10 2016 02:58 GMT
#109194
It's funny because while I think Trump did a lot better than his first debate, the "I disagree with my VP on that policy because we haven't spoken" and "I will appoint a prosecutor to put you in jail" will be the biggest headlines. And they aren't good for him.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-10 02:59:27
October 10 2016 02:58 GMT
#109195
On October 10 2016 11:56 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Do non-GOP or Democrat candidates get media coverage? Or are they fucked from the start?

depends on how high they're polling. they do get some coverage, usually not a lot. But it does depend alot on how interesting they are (some people sell well). They're always kinda screwed from the start; of course most aren't that good anyways.
They'll also get decent coverage if they can poll above 10% or so
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43195 Posts
October 10 2016 02:59 GMT
#109196
On October 10 2016 11:45 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
You think Farage's debate coaching made a difference in this one?

Farage has never been in a serious debate. He's not a politician in the UK. He's like Gary Johnson.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-10 03:00:06
October 10 2016 02:59 GMT
#109197
On October 10 2016 11:58 Doodsmack wrote:
It's funny because while I think Trump did a lot better than his first debate, the "I disagree with my VP on that policy because we haven't spoken" and "I will appoint a prosecutor to put you in jail" will be the biggest headlines. And they aren't good for him.


What about his admission of not paying personal income taxes or "Not knowing anything about Russia"?

Those seem likely to come back up too.

On October 10 2016 11:58 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:56 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Do non-GOP or Democrat candidates get media coverage? Or are they fucked from the start?

depends on how high they're polling. they do get some coverage, usually not a lot. But it does depend alot on how interesting they are (some people sell well). They're always kinda screwed from the start; of course most aren't that good anyways.
They'll also get decent coverage if they can poll above 10% or so



Take this cycle. Johnson had some chances to get increasingly large coverage and then totally shot himself in the foot and became a huge joke.
Logo
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
October 10 2016 02:59 GMT
#109198
On October 10 2016 11:57 Sent. wrote:
People who voted "Trump and I supported Hillary": why do you think Hillary lost?


I voted tie, but too many Trump zingers found their mark. I only listened to the audio, but she still sounded Rubio-esque at times.

Just saying "he's lying" and directing people to hillaryclinton.com unfortunately doesn't do enough.
OuchyDathurts
Profile Joined September 2010
United States4588 Posts
October 10 2016 02:59 GMT
#109199
On October 10 2016 11:56 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:54 OuchyDathurts wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:52 Hexe wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:50 Orome wrote:
i remember being disgusted 8 years ago by how much of a shitshow the us presidential debates were

lol

dude what? McCain vs Obama was pretty good, but lopsided. Romney vs Obama debates were like shakespeare vs this.


Kenyan Muslim Socialist Obama and Sarah Palin was a pretty low bar dude. Whats pathetic is apparently the bar could actually fall to the center of the earth in 8 years time and we already thought we were at rock bottom.


Well, luckily none of those things came up at the Presidential debates. Biden did make Palin look pretty bad though (not nearly as bad as Paul Ryan).


Thats true they might not have come up in the debate at the time, I don't specifically recall the debates anymore. Was more referring to the level of discourse overall. Everyone thought that was rock bottom and boy were they wrong.
LiquidDota Staff
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43195 Posts
October 10 2016 02:59 GMT
#109200
On October 10 2016 11:47 oBlade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2016 11:44 Nebuchad wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:41 oBlade wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:41 KwarK wrote:
On October 10 2016 11:40 oBlade wrote:
Not a great poll, assumes you support someone.

Does anyone watch the debates while having no stance on the election at this point?

Probably many Euros and such.


Euros are laughing at you even having Trump as a candidate. He has a pew poll with single digit support amongst Europeans.

Does Europe still have countries by the way?

No, it was destroyed by immigrants. Did you not hear? It has literally been destroyed. It's gone now.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
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