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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 4810

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
PassiveAce
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States18076 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-24 00:02:22
August 24 2016 00:00 GMT
#96181
Kellyanne Conway is a fucking miracle worker imo

He's gone an entire week with only one or two career-ending mistakes.
Call me Marge Simpson cuz I love you homie
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-24 00:30:28
August 24 2016 00:30 GMT
#96182
She's speaking to him in terms of polls. I.e. polls that are more specific than national ones.

Now he understands.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
August 24 2016 01:03 GMT
#96183
On August 24 2016 08:40 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2016 08:35 TheYango wrote:
On August 24 2016 08:23 SoSexy wrote:
On August 24 2016 08:15 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Trump keeps the immigration softening rolling. Pretty soon Trump will come out for the Gang of 8 bill.

Patrick Svitek
"Hannity asks if Trump would change laws to accommodate those that have "contributed to society."
TRUMP: "There certainly can be a softening""

"This is from a town hall that was taped this afternoon in Austin. You guys, he literally said "softening." Please recall that his devoted fan base has been saying that it is stupid to say Trump is softening on immigration, and now here is Trump talking to his best, most loyal devotee, and literally saying the word "softening.""

http://www.redstate.com/absentee/2016/08/23/ensoftening-went-limp-immigration-amnesty-first-hannity-trump/


So you are basically saying that people can change their mind? Wow. I thought people were robots...

It's not so much whether or not he's changed his mind, but rather some people obstinately insisting that he hasn't.

A candidate is allowed to change his mind, but at least call it what it is.


Followon problem: how do voters know where you stand if you don't acknowledge that you have changed your mind? Trump could be anywhere on immigration at this point. Trump won't acknowledge his own past positions, and won't own up to his current position. It is one thing to say changing facts have compelled you to update your position, it is altogether another to do what Trump does and simply take opposite positions on a weekly basis depending on who he is talking to (deport them all, deport just the bad ones, softening, path to citizenship, ban H1B visas, institute patriotism tests, religious bans, religious quizzes, no religious bans).

Some of this is the reason his support has waned in the general. Not for acknowledging a change of mind, but for being on all sides of an issue at once.

The religious shit is a notable exception. The communication beyond the literalist sense (see Scott Adam's reasoning on persuasion) is he will be tough on immigration from middle eastern countries. This has been consistent. I can see where Obama supporters get tripped up on the media frenzy at the most recent sound bite. They think it's the right policy lottery and shit that one's racist, that one's unconstitutional ... where anything involving naming the threat and committing to act to limit immigration is a winning issue for Trump. In a land where nobody in the Obama administration wants to talk about Islamic Jihad, wants to acknowledge the religious & power appeal to nonobservant and observant young Muslims, it's a breath of fresh air. He attacks a weakness/perceived weakness in past refugee/econ-migrants policy, and still wins if he proposes ten ways and seven variations, provided none of them are decreased screening and increased immigration from present day rates.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
kwizach
Profile Joined June 2011
3658 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-24 01:15:58
August 24 2016 01:11 GMT
#96184
A pretty thorough look at the conspiracy theories surrounding Clinton's health:

The new birthers: Debunking the Hillary Clinton health conspiracy

From Donald Trump and his top surrogates to the right-wing media and its engine rooms of outrage in the blogosphere, Hillary Clinton's opponents are ramping up efforts to sow doubt over the candidate's health. The campaign -- which goes back years -- has escalated to shouting over the summer, as Trump spiraled in the polls while mostly failing to connect with voters outside his base demographic. Now, as the race enters a crucial phase, there has been a growing push to fundamentally undermine Clinton's candidacy.

Much in the way "birthers" (Trump was among the most prominent) sought similar ends by questioning President Barack Obama's citizenship, the "healthers" are using junk science and conspiracy theories to argue that Clinton is suffering from a series of debilitating brain injuries. In an interview on "Fox News Sunday" this weekend, former New York City mayor and Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani first accused the mainstream media of hiding evidence, then encouraged doubters to "go online and put down 'Hillary Clinton illness.'"

There is absolutely no credible evidence to backstop any of these claims, including on the "videos" Giuliani cited. Clinton's physician -- the only person to speak on the record who has actually examined her -- has repeatedly affirmed the former secretary of state's health and fitness for the highest office in the land.

But for those who want to believe, the structure of the lie borders on impenetrable -- baked into its "medical" assertions is the tightly held belief that the press is in cahoots with Clinton, protecting her political prospects by working overtime to hide her imagined ailment.

The facts, though, tell a very different story.

Source

They're basically throwing everything but the kitchen sink at her, as they've been doing for years. And she's still going to win in November.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." -- Stephen Colbert
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46291 Posts
August 24 2016 03:09 GMT
#96185
On August 24 2016 10:11 kwizach wrote:
A pretty thorough look at the conspiracy theories surrounding Clinton's health:

Show nested quote +
The new birthers: Debunking the Hillary Clinton health conspiracy

From Donald Trump and his top surrogates to the right-wing media and its engine rooms of outrage in the blogosphere, Hillary Clinton's opponents are ramping up efforts to sow doubt over the candidate's health. The campaign -- which goes back years -- has escalated to shouting over the summer, as Trump spiraled in the polls while mostly failing to connect with voters outside his base demographic. Now, as the race enters a crucial phase, there has been a growing push to fundamentally undermine Clinton's candidacy.

Much in the way "birthers" (Trump was among the most prominent) sought similar ends by questioning President Barack Obama's citizenship, the "healthers" are using junk science and conspiracy theories to argue that Clinton is suffering from a series of debilitating brain injuries. In an interview on "Fox News Sunday" this weekend, former New York City mayor and Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani first accused the mainstream media of hiding evidence, then encouraged doubters to "go online and put down 'Hillary Clinton illness.'"

There is absolutely no credible evidence to backstop any of these claims, including on the "videos" Giuliani cited. Clinton's physician -- the only person to speak on the record who has actually examined her -- has repeatedly affirmed the former secretary of state's health and fitness for the highest office in the land.

But for those who want to believe, the structure of the lie borders on impenetrable -- baked into its "medical" assertions is the tightly held belief that the press is in cahoots with Clinton, protecting her political prospects by working overtime to hide her imagined ailment.

The facts, though, tell a very different story.

Source

They're basically throwing everything but the kitchen sink at her, as they've been doing for years. And she's still going to win in November.


Well obviously they can't question her birthplace... She's white!
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 24 2016 03:11 GMT
#96186
On August 24 2016 12:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2016 10:11 kwizach wrote:
A pretty thorough look at the conspiracy theories surrounding Clinton's health:

The new birthers: Debunking the Hillary Clinton health conspiracy

From Donald Trump and his top surrogates to the right-wing media and its engine rooms of outrage in the blogosphere, Hillary Clinton's opponents are ramping up efforts to sow doubt over the candidate's health. The campaign -- which goes back years -- has escalated to shouting over the summer, as Trump spiraled in the polls while mostly failing to connect with voters outside his base demographic. Now, as the race enters a crucial phase, there has been a growing push to fundamentally undermine Clinton's candidacy.

Much in the way "birthers" (Trump was among the most prominent) sought similar ends by questioning President Barack Obama's citizenship, the "healthers" are using junk science and conspiracy theories to argue that Clinton is suffering from a series of debilitating brain injuries. In an interview on "Fox News Sunday" this weekend, former New York City mayor and Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani first accused the mainstream media of hiding evidence, then encouraged doubters to "go online and put down 'Hillary Clinton illness.'"

There is absolutely no credible evidence to backstop any of these claims, including on the "videos" Giuliani cited. Clinton's physician -- the only person to speak on the record who has actually examined her -- has repeatedly affirmed the former secretary of state's health and fitness for the highest office in the land.

But for those who want to believe, the structure of the lie borders on impenetrable -- baked into its "medical" assertions is the tightly held belief that the press is in cahoots with Clinton, protecting her political prospects by working overtime to hide her imagined ailment.

The facts, though, tell a very different story.

Source

They're basically throwing everything but the kitchen sink at her, as they've been doing for years. And she's still going to win in November.


Well obviously they can't question her birthplace... She's white!

Shhhhh we can't talk about the r-word here. It's not acceptable.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
August 24 2016 03:13 GMT
#96187
I wonder which of the conspiracy theories out there, besides birtherism, Trump believes. He certainly has insinuated Obama is secretly on the side of terrorists and Hillary lacks proper health to be president.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
August 24 2016 03:15 GMT
#96188
On August 24 2016 10:03 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2016 08:40 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
On August 24 2016 08:35 TheYango wrote:
On August 24 2016 08:23 SoSexy wrote:
On August 24 2016 08:15 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Trump keeps the immigration softening rolling. Pretty soon Trump will come out for the Gang of 8 bill.

Patrick Svitek
"Hannity asks if Trump would change laws to accommodate those that have "contributed to society."
TRUMP: "There certainly can be a softening""

"This is from a town hall that was taped this afternoon in Austin. You guys, he literally said "softening." Please recall that his devoted fan base has been saying that it is stupid to say Trump is softening on immigration, and now here is Trump talking to his best, most loyal devotee, and literally saying the word "softening.""

http://www.redstate.com/absentee/2016/08/23/ensoftening-went-limp-immigration-amnesty-first-hannity-trump/


So you are basically saying that people can change their mind? Wow. I thought people were robots...

It's not so much whether or not he's changed his mind, but rather some people obstinately insisting that he hasn't.

A candidate is allowed to change his mind, but at least call it what it is.


Followon problem: how do voters know where you stand if you don't acknowledge that you have changed your mind? Trump could be anywhere on immigration at this point. Trump won't acknowledge his own past positions, and won't own up to his current position. It is one thing to say changing facts have compelled you to update your position, it is altogether another to do what Trump does and simply take opposite positions on a weekly basis depending on who he is talking to (deport them all, deport just the bad ones, softening, path to citizenship, ban H1B visas, institute patriotism tests, religious bans, religious quizzes, no religious bans).

anything involving naming the threat and committing to act to limit immigration is a winning issue for Trump.


I'm not so sure about that, bud. It's a winning issue for his Republican primary voters.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46291 Posts
August 24 2016 03:16 GMT
#96189
On August 24 2016 12:13 Doodsmack wrote:
I wonder which of the conspiracy theories out there, besides birtherism, Trump believes. He certainly has insinuated Obama is secretly on the side of terrorists and Hillary lacks proper health to be president.


He's anti-vaxxer and believes that climate change is a Chinese hoax too.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
August 24 2016 03:28 GMT
#96190
So Trump campaigned in Texas today. He wanted to have the crowd.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
August 24 2016 14:59 GMT
#96191
My NYT update just told me that their analysts think that Democrats have a 60% chance of winning the Senate this November. That'd be nice
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-24 15:20:30
August 24 2016 15:17 GMT
#96192
Engaging in a bit of punditry, I also like the Dems chances in NC, NV and FL.

NC seems to be one of those typical tossup states where Trump is doing disproportionately badly. Lots of more educated voters in the metropolitan triangle, similar impact in GA, NH, PA, VA with the latter three falling into the Dem column and the the former one becoming a bit of a tossup. This goes for the senate race as well-- NH, PA and VA could have been closer if Trump wasn't dragging down the Republican candidates so much.

NV has traditionally polled a little low for Dems due to under-representation of the Hispanic population in most polls (especially the strongly Dem voting part). Trump's particular weakness among Hispanics will cost him here in particular, with potential for that to spread to AZ a9dn the senate race).

FL is similar, plus I expect Dem support to consolidate a bit after Murphy wins the primary - some space for Murphy to go up, decent space for Rubio to go down. Of course, if Grayson wins it's a lost seat.

Bayh is destroying his opponent in IN, which will more than likely go blue - it might be Clinton riding his coattails here. Duckworth will win handily as well.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-24 15:19:16
August 24 2016 15:18 GMT
#96193
On August 24 2016 23:59 farvacola wrote:
My NYT update just told me that their analysts think that Democrats have a 60% chance of winning the Senate this November. That'd be nice


So ... slightly better than a coinflip ?
Bora Pain minha porra!
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
August 24 2016 15:38 GMT
#96194
On August 24 2016 06:24 TheLordofAwesome wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2016 06:13 LegalLord wrote:
The unfortunate reality is that sometimes you have to release personal information to prove you have it. Want to prove you stole someone's database of credit card information? You pretty much have to leak it.

That being so, and that being a general factor associated with most leaks I've ever seen, my opinion of them is mixed. The world would be a worse place if they never happened, but leakers are far from saints.

Credit card information is a poor choice of example. When it comes to credit card information, there is such a thing as responsible disclosure. Get a meeting with some corporate person and show him the goods. No need to spread it all over the internet. "White hat" hackers and penetration testers practice this kind of responsible disclosure all the time.


I'm curious where in the Western world you think someone who was highly wanted by the US government would be safe.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-24 16:30:25
August 24 2016 16:28 GMT
#96195
Bernie Sanders’s New Political Group Is Met by Staff Revolt


Several people familiar with the organization said eight core staff members have stepped down. The group’s entire organizing department quit this week, along with people working in digital and data positions.

After the resignations, Mr. Sanders spoke to some who had quit and asked them to reconsider, but the staff members refused.

At the heart of the issue, according to several people who left, was deep distrust of and frustration with Mr. Weaver, whom they accused of wasting money on television advertising during Mr. Sanders’s campaign; mismanaging campaign funds by failing to hire staff or effectively target voters; and creating a hostile work environment by threatening to criticize staff members if they quit.

Source: NYT

I don't have a clue why Bernie is clinging so hard to Weaver. I imagine it is largely a trust thing.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
August 24 2016 16:51 GMT
#96196
On August 25 2016 01:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Bernie Sanders’s New Political Group Is Met by Staff Revolt

Show nested quote +

Several people familiar with the organization said eight core staff members have stepped down. The group’s entire organizing department quit this week, along with people working in digital and data positions.

After the resignations, Mr. Sanders spoke to some who had quit and asked them to reconsider, but the staff members refused.

At the heart of the issue, according to several people who left, was deep distrust of and frustration with Mr. Weaver, whom they accused of wasting money on television advertising during Mr. Sanders’s campaign; mismanaging campaign funds by failing to hire staff or effectively target voters; and creating a hostile work environment by threatening to criticize staff members if they quit.

Source: NYT

I don't have a clue why Bernie is clinging so hard to Weaver. I imagine it is largely a trust thing.


This is kind of illustrating how hard it is to throw people under the bus if you, personally, have a good relationship with them. DWS is a monumental shithead as DNC chair (though she's vastly more qualified than Canova to be rep) but it's hard for Clinton to ditch her for more or less the same reason Bernie can't dump Weaver.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 24 2016 16:53 GMT
#96197
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46291 Posts
August 24 2016 16:56 GMT
#96198
Is that just for those $55,000 or is it permanently, from now on?
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
August 24 2016 16:59 GMT
#96199
On August 25 2016 01:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Is that just for those $55,000 or is it permanently, from now on?


I'd guess both - 55k retroactively, any royalties going forward
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 24 2016 17:05 GMT
#96200
The odds of the Trump camp getting investigated by the FEC and other law enforcement after the election must be really high at this point.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
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