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On April 01 2016 02:21 ZasZ. wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2016 00:01 Mohdoo wrote:On March 31 2016 23:47 TheTenthDoc wrote:On March 31 2016 23:28 corumjhaelen wrote:If Sanders wins the nomination, liberals should rally round him. Of course, but maybe those people who would not vote for Hillary are not "liberals". This reminds me of how silly it is to look at who picks up "independents" in primaries as a marker for appeal to the center or moderates when "independent" is increasingly a trendy label for "anti-establishment." I'm sure this effect has only become more pronounced since 2012, but it was definitely happening then and if another analysis were done it has only gotten stronger now. http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/04/section-9-trends-in-party-affiliation/Maybe some of the poll break down more than just self-identification to get at the moderate independents, but I have never seen that mentioned. Yeah, I feel like not too long ago, moderate meant that each party had some component that alienated that person. Now it seems to mean "I am resentful of the fact that my party doesn't fit me insanely well". That's why I think Bernie picking up independents is somewhat misleading. These are people who decided Obama isn't liberal enough, not people who are politically center. On March 31 2016 23:26 kwizach wrote:A nice column by Charles Blow on Susan Sarandon's, and others', "Bernie or Bust": ‘Bernie or Bust’ Is Bonkers
What was Sarandon talking about with her coy language? “Bring the revolution”? Exactly what kind of revolution? “Explode”? Was the purpose to present this as a difficult but ultimately positive development?
The comments smacked of petulance and privilege.
No member of an American minority group — whether ethnic, racial, queer-identified, immigrant, refugee or poor — would (or should) assume the luxury of uttering such a imbecilic phrase, filled with lust for doom.
But I don’t doubt that she has met “some people” with a Bernie-or-bust, scorched-earth electoral portentousness. As The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month, “A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll indicates one third of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ supporters cannot see themselves voting for Hillary Clinton in November.”
Be absolutely clear: While there are meaningful differences between Clinton and Sanders, either would be a far better choice for president than any of the remaining Republican contenders, especially the demagogic real estate developer. Assisting or allowing his ascendance by electoral abstinence in order to force a “revolution” is heretical.
This position is dangerous, shortsighted and self-immolating.
If Sanders wins the nomination, liberals should rally round him. Conversely, if Clinton does, they should rally round her.
This is not a game. The presidency, particularly the next one, matters, and elections can be decided by relatively small margins. No president has won the popular vote by more than 10 percentage points since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Source I think it's interesting that the media is so non-focused on Cruz right now. Is there anyone liberal leaning on this board that would be more comfortable with Cruz than Trump? I am liberal-leaning and at this point I would definitely be more comfortable with Cruz than Trump. This has changed only recently for me, because Trump seems relatively moderate on many social issues while Cruz seems extremely focused on social conservatism. It's his focus that scares me; while I view Trump as a blindfolded kid with a pinata bat I view Cruz as a man with a hammer, taking aim at social policies I consider important. I've changed my mind because it has become clear to me that the damage little Trump can do with his pinata bat is far more significant than I originally hoped. At least Cruz has principles that he sticks to...I can fathom what a successful Cruz presidency would look to him. With Trump, that's a blank slate and I don't want to see what it would look like. There are too many variables and almost all of them hinge on Trump's mood on any given day or whether or not he feels slighted by whichever political power. Cruz, the man who shut down the government in a fight he could never win, with utterly no plan on how to handle it.
Sorry but at this point I trust Trump more, and that is not saying a lot.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
I don't think Republicans have a better shot at winning the election as it is right now either way, Trump is their best shot.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
cruz is a literal madman. would choose trump the pragmatist over a hardened ideologue.
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On April 01 2016 02:14 Kipsate wrote: Brokered convention would lead to all sorts of problems within the Republican Party
highly doubt they would go for that.
Kasich is also terrible btw, the GOP doesn't like any of the current canidates. I feel like they could get away with giving Cruz the nomination if he picks up some more but Kasich... if he stays on this level relevant to Trump/Cruz and they give him the nomination or someone else completly unrelated like Paul Ryan or such all hell will break lose. Trump has basicly been telling his followers to to go wild if he's not going to get the nomination
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Netherlands45349 Posts
I'm not even sure if i'd rather have Trump or Cruz as POTUS.
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On April 01 2016 02:23 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2016 02:02 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 01 2016 01:58 oneofthem wrote: that's a weird question. Not really, Republicans desperately don't want Trump and it looks like they may be able to stop him from winning before the convention (although still reasonably unlikely). If they did, one option would be to pick the guy running the best in heads up polls. It's clear Hillary wouldn't be able to make Kasich into the villian that she could Trump or even Cruz, so I wonder whether Republicans would vote Kasich to beat Hillary. Or would Bernie make you more likely to vote Kasich than him against Hillary would? As an aside, it looks like Hillary had her first superdelegate defection today. Sigh.... Yes Republicans would vote Kasich over Hillary. No, picking Kasich at a brokered convention will not help the Republicans in the slightest since all of Cruz/Trump supporters will walk away from the party and make them still utterly unable to win. Even with Kasich they will most likely not win the independent vote. There is no 'win' scenario here. Either Trump is the candidate or a significant part of the voters walk away after having been utterly betrayed by the 'establishment'. That's why I'm asking if Trump/Cruz supporters here would actually walk away or if they would begrudgingly vote for Kasich. Because without them walking away, Hillary losing to Kasich is a real possibility, should that be the general election matchup.
On April 01 2016 02:26 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2016 02:14 Kipsate wrote: Brokered convention would lead to all sorts of problems within the Republican Party
highly doubt they would go for that.
Kasich is also terrible btw, the GOP doesn't like any of the current canidates. I feel like they could get away with giving Cruz the nomination if he picks up some more but Kasich... if he stays on this level relevant to Trump/Cruz and they give him the nomination or someone else completly unrelated like Paul Ryan or such all hell will break lose. Trump has basicly been telling his followers to to go wild if he's not going to get the nomination
By all accounts Trump might not even have a plurality of delegates loyal to him beyond their rule oriented obligations. There's a very real possibility that Kasich ends up being the most palatable for the delegates who will actually choose the Republican nominee, though Cruz has certainly been working them harder.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
They'd walk away, GOP won't survive their primary canidate (with a significant margin) losing the nomination. It would also piss off the independent voters i'd imagine.
Also I am not sure if Hillary losing to Kasich would be a real possibility, as the angle of attack also opens up for the Democrats about Republican democratic illegitimacy(I know its the party that choses in the end but thats not how it will be percieved).
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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On April 01 2016 02:30 Kipsate wrote: They'd walk away, GOP won't survive their primary canidate (with a significant margin) losing the nomination. It would also piss off the independent voters i'd imagine.
Also I am not sure if Hillary losing to Kasich would be a real possibility, as the angle of attack also opens up for the Democrats about Republican democratic illegitimacy(I know its the party that choses in the end but thats not how it will be percieved).
After this primary I really don't think she'd be a good person to make that case. He'd also take away some of Trump's biggest weaknesses so at best I'd call it a wash regarding avenues of attack.
I do find it curious the same folks that are so sure Bernie supporters wouldn't walk away from Hillary are also sure Republicans would walk away from Kasich.
EDIT: From one's article:
Additionally, we need a philosophical shift in the Democratic Party, a new willingness to support programs that create pathways for nongovernmental and philanthropic innovation and investment to help solve the problems of society. We should embrace approaches, such as social impact bonds, that combine private-sector capital and expertise with public-interest goals to produce better government services. Such changes will require Democrats to leave our ideological comfort zone and move away from the idea that government, and government alone, is the answer to our problems.
But instead of being used to voice an agenda that can bring the country together, the party microphone has been hijacked by people more interested in scoring points than in solving problems. They propose expanding Social Security rather than prioritizing serious efforts to preserve the program — even though it will be unable to provide full benefits as soon as 2032, the Congressional Budget Office has made clear. The only way a large-scale expansion could work is by allocating new revenue away from needed investments in the next generation or by shifting the financial burden to workers or our children.
Likewise, as if the global economy will wait for us, protectionists demonize President Obama’s unfinished Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. A fair trade deal is a crucial step in bolstering the U.S. manufacturing renaissance, boosting U.S. exports and growing our economy. If done right — something much more likely to happen if the negotiations are directed by this sitting Democratic president — the agreement could create middle-class jobs and allow the United States to set the rules in Asia. Unfortunately, Democratic recalcitrance is increasing the chance that the deal could be done instead by a Republican president.
Lastly, some in our party continue to engage in time-consuming rhetoric attacking banks that has little chance of producing more financial reform and distracts from far more consequential areas of economic risk, such as climate change, chronic underinvestment in the next generation and our broken immigration and housing finance systems.
That reads like it basically could have been written by Paul Ryan's office as a letter to Democrats (save the mention of climate change).
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On April 01 2016 02:23 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2016 02:02 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 01 2016 01:58 oneofthem wrote: that's a weird question. Not really, Republicans desperately don't want Trump and it looks like they may be able to stop him from winning before the convention (although still reasonably unlikely). If they did, one option would be to pick the guy running the best in heads up polls. It's clear Hillary wouldn't be able to make Kasich into the villian that she could Trump or even Cruz, so I wonder whether Republicans would vote Kasich to beat Hillary. Or would Bernie make you more likely to vote Kasich than him against Hillary would? As an aside, it looks like Hillary had her first superdelegate defection today. Sigh.... Yes Republicans would vote Kasich over Hillary. No, picking Kasich at a brokered convention will not help the Republicans in the slightest since all of Cruz/Trump supporters will walk away from the party and make them still utterly unable to win. Even with Kasich they will most likely not win the independent vote. There is no 'win' scenario here. Either Trump is the candidate or a significant part of the voters walk away after having been utterly betrayed by the 'establishment'.
It's worth noting the Cruz/Trump party is significantly larger than the Kasich party right now. The Kasich party does not have the support to be a meaningful influence on politics.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
lol just lol. why would she be illegitimate?
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Because in 2008 the same thing happened with Clinton and people didn't walk away from Obama. Because Sanders will most likely endorse Clinton, if not Sanders then atleast Warren(and Sanders supporters like her too) Because its not just Republicans and Democrats that exist, a vast amount of people are independents in the nationals who also probably dislike the GOP disregarding democracy. Because its Kasich and that guy is fucking awful too, the Clinton machine hasn't set its sights on him(because fuck it, why would they) while Hillary has had her sights on by fucking everyone for the past 20 years or so.
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United States19573 Posts
On April 01 2016 02:25 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2016 02:21 ZasZ. wrote:On April 01 2016 00:01 Mohdoo wrote:On March 31 2016 23:47 TheTenthDoc wrote:On March 31 2016 23:28 corumjhaelen wrote:If Sanders wins the nomination, liberals should rally round him. Of course, but maybe those people who would not vote for Hillary are not "liberals". This reminds me of how silly it is to look at who picks up "independents" in primaries as a marker for appeal to the center or moderates when "independent" is increasingly a trendy label for "anti-establishment." I'm sure this effect has only become more pronounced since 2012, but it was definitely happening then and if another analysis were done it has only gotten stronger now. http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/04/section-9-trends-in-party-affiliation/Maybe some of the poll break down more than just self-identification to get at the moderate independents, but I have never seen that mentioned. Yeah, I feel like not too long ago, moderate meant that each party had some component that alienated that person. Now it seems to mean "I am resentful of the fact that my party doesn't fit me insanely well". That's why I think Bernie picking up independents is somewhat misleading. These are people who decided Obama isn't liberal enough, not people who are politically center. On March 31 2016 23:26 kwizach wrote:A nice column by Charles Blow on Susan Sarandon's, and others', "Bernie or Bust": ‘Bernie or Bust’ Is Bonkers
What was Sarandon talking about with her coy language? “Bring the revolution”? Exactly what kind of revolution? “Explode”? Was the purpose to present this as a difficult but ultimately positive development?
The comments smacked of petulance and privilege.
No member of an American minority group — whether ethnic, racial, queer-identified, immigrant, refugee or poor — would (or should) assume the luxury of uttering such a imbecilic phrase, filled with lust for doom.
But I don’t doubt that she has met “some people” with a Bernie-or-bust, scorched-earth electoral portentousness. As The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month, “A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll indicates one third of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ supporters cannot see themselves voting for Hillary Clinton in November.”
Be absolutely clear: While there are meaningful differences between Clinton and Sanders, either would be a far better choice for president than any of the remaining Republican contenders, especially the demagogic real estate developer. Assisting or allowing his ascendance by electoral abstinence in order to force a “revolution” is heretical.
This position is dangerous, shortsighted and self-immolating.
If Sanders wins the nomination, liberals should rally round him. Conversely, if Clinton does, they should rally round her.
This is not a game. The presidency, particularly the next one, matters, and elections can be decided by relatively small margins. No president has won the popular vote by more than 10 percentage points since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Source I think it's interesting that the media is so non-focused on Cruz right now. Is there anyone liberal leaning on this board that would be more comfortable with Cruz than Trump? I am liberal-leaning and at this point I would definitely be more comfortable with Cruz than Trump. This has changed only recently for me, because Trump seems relatively moderate on many social issues while Cruz seems extremely focused on social conservatism. It's his focus that scares me; while I view Trump as a blindfolded kid with a pinata bat I view Cruz as a man with a hammer, taking aim at social policies I consider important. I've changed my mind because it has become clear to me that the damage little Trump can do with his pinata bat is far more significant than I originally hoped. At least Cruz has principles that he sticks to...I can fathom what a successful Cruz presidency would look to him. With Trump, that's a blank slate and I don't want to see what it would look like. There are too many variables and almost all of them hinge on Trump's mood on any given day or whether or not he feels slighted by whichever political power. Cruz, the man who shut down the government in a fight he could never win, with utterly no plan on how to handle it.
Sorry but at this point I trust Trump more, and that is not saying a lot.
I'm sorry, but this is not true. Cruz had a plan, Mitch McConnell didn't have a plan, neither did John Boehner. Also they didn't like Ted Cruz's plan so they preemptively scuttled it. And their premise for not liking the plan and scuttling it was then subsequently disproved in the elections.
The Cruz plan, were it followed, would have funded nearly the majority of the government and sent 10+ appropriations bills to Obama (or they would have to be constantly filibustered by Reid). Then the Republicans say "The Democrats are holding XXX portion of the federal government hostage so they can keep YYY". Instead, the Sen/House leadership engaged in a kind of failure theater (like the TSA!) where they declared they would not use their only bargaining chip and stumbled into a bad deal.
Its hilarious, if it wasn't so sad, but they accept the premise that its bad faith to negotiate on the budget at the times those negotiations are done. Do they think that there is going to be some sort of supplementary budget cuts enacted in a random April session with no budget or debt crisis looming? I know Democrats will not do that.
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On April 01 2016 02:37 oneofthem wrote: lol just lol. why would she be illegitimate?
She may not have the majority of pledged delegates by the convention. In which case, the superdelegates aren't any more democratic than Republican delegates changing their choice.
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On April 01 2016 02:45 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2016 02:37 oneofthem wrote: lol just lol. why would she be illegitimate? She may not have the majority of pledged delegates by the convention. In which case, the superdelegates aren't any more democratic than Republican delegates changing their choice. Im sorry but your just making dumb statements now.
Bernie supporters walking away from Hillary as a candidate is often mentioned as the one way the Democrats can still lose this general election.
It is repeatedly stated the super delegates are very likely to support the majority candidate. They know the mess they will have if they go against a majority. Already calling Hillary illegitimate because of a almost non-existent future scenario is stupid.
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The thresholds are set differently-- Democratic threshold takes into account the fact there are 700-odd superdelegates, Republican threshold doesn't b/c their system doesn't have superdelegates. IIRC Obama didn't hit the threshold in 2008 with superdelegates either given that was a far closer race. Under the "most democratic" scenarios of allocating superdelegates (either having them vote with their states like a WTA pool or just proportional) then Clinton still wins, just by a little less.
Given all pledged delegates will have been divvied by by convention, Clinton will by definition have a majority of them, unless Sanders wins an improbable proportion of them going forward.
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Clinton will by definition have a majority of them, unless Sanders wins an improbable proportion of them going forward.
Which would be the precondition of the previous statement...
But as there will likely be similar problems as AZ in CA, NY, PA, (they are already being reported) and beyond, there won't be a Republican party to blame, it will be blatant voter suppression by the Democratic party. Which will beg the question of why, which will be much easier to answer for some than others.
I doubt anyone would take a bet saying that the longest lines in NY will be less than 3 hours, even with more than enough time to do something to prevent long lines. How people will paint that as anything other than voter suppression by the Democratic party I simply don't know.
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United States19573 Posts
On April 01 2016 03:05 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote + Clinton will by definition have a majority of them, unless Sanders wins an improbable proportion of them going forward. Which would be the precondition of the previous statement... But as there will likely be similar problems as AZ in CA, NY, PA, (they are already being reported) and beyond, there won't be a Republican party to blame, it will be blatant voter suppression by the Democratic party. Which will beg the question of why, which will be much easier to answer for some than others. I doubt anyone would take a bet saying that the longest lines in NY will be less than 3 hours, even with more than enough time to do something to prevent long lines. How people will paint that as anything other than voter suppression by the Democratic party I simply don't know.
"Time to do something" is irrelevant when you have to appropriate funds to do that.
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On April 01 2016 03:05 GreenHorizons wrote: But as there will likely be similar problems as AZ in CA, NY, PA, (they are already being reported) and beyond, there won't be a Republican party to blame, it will be blatant voter suppression by the Democratic party. Which will beg the question of why, which will be much easier to answer for some than others.
A significant portion of the democratic party only cares about winning and sees no chance for someone who defends socialism. Defending socialism can not win over the 50+ vote and that's where the train stops. I would love to have Sanders as president and I've donated to his campaign because I appreciate the fact that he has body slammed the national conversation as to what it means to be a democrat. It needed to happen, but it does need to stop at one point. At all costs, Bernie can not be the nominee. I love him having a voice, even if it is blatantly ignorant as is the case with GMOs and nuclear energy. Both parties needed to get body slammed this year and I'm glad it happened. If the democrats can manage to pull it all back in, I think we'll be great.
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On April 01 2016 03:10 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2016 03:05 GreenHorizons wrote: But as there will likely be similar problems as AZ in CA, NY, PA, (they are already being reported) and beyond, there won't be a Republican party to blame, it will be blatant voter suppression by the Democratic party. Which will beg the question of why, which will be much easier to answer for some than others. A significant portion of the democratic party only cares about winning and sees no chance for someone who defends socialism. Defending socialism can not win over the 50+ vote and that's where the train stops. I would love to have Sanders as president and I've donated to his campaign because I appreciate the fact that he has body slammed the national conversation as to what it means to be a democrat. It needed to happen, but it does need to stop at one point. At all costs, Bernie can not be the nominee. I love him having a voice, even if it is blatantly ignorant as is the case with GMOs and nuclear energy. Both parties needed to get body slammed this year and I'm glad it happened. If the democrats can manage to pull it all back in, I think we'll be great.
If Americans are that ignorant we deserve to have Bernie's opponent win.
As for funding functioning voting, if they can't scrape together the cash, it says more than enough about how the democratic party of NY prioritizes democracy (it doesn't).
And on probabilities Sanders does better than expected. Considering expectations foolishly/intentionally used southern black voters to gauge Hillary's future support up north, more polls like this are likely to start popping up making those early projections useless.
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