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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3489

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
March 29 2016 15:44 GMT
#69761
It'll be interesting to see when models start being better predictors. More data, more trends and less time remaining will make the predictive models much more accurate. A big strength for Sanders has been the wild inaccuracy of predictions. Once the predictions start getting it right, it's gonna look more grim.
parkufarku
Profile Blog Joined March 2014
882 Posts
March 29 2016 16:01 GMT
#69762
I don't agree with that article. Sanders being the underdog in California? Lol. Right.....
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 29 2016 16:01 GMT
#69763
The Obama administration announced new measures on Tuesday to combat the growing epidemic of heroin and prescription opioid abuse, most of which are centered on prevention and treatment, not crime-fighting.

The White House is committing $116m to support treatment, with nine actions that include expanding access to care and drugs for combatting overdoses. It also proposed $7m in US justice department funding to increase community policing.

Michael Collins, deputy director for national affairs at the Drug Policy Alliance, said the increased focus on helping addicts rather than interdicting drugs and incarcerating dealers continues Obama’s commitment to “doing more than previous administrations to roll back the war on drugs”.

But Collins questioned where the funds would come from to pay for the proposed measures, and called the policing proposal a “step backward”

Tuesday’s announcement builds on Obama’s call last month for an additional $1.1bn in congressional funding to fight the growing public health problem, according to the White House. Opioids have killed 28,647 people in 2014, a four-fold increase in opioid overdoses since 2000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Obama is expected to discuss the plan Tuesday afternoon on a panel at theNational Prescription Drug Abuse Heroin Summit in Atlanta.

The most significant monetary investment in the plan is $94m in “new funding” that Health and Human Services Department (HHS) released earlier this month, so that 271 Community Health Centers could expand “medication-assisted treatment of opioid use disorders in underserved communities”. This funding could result in the centers treating 124,000 new patients, according to the White House.

The plan also includes $11m for states to distribute naloxone, a drug that reverses opioid overdoses, and an HHS proposed rule that would allow qualified doctors to increase the number of patients to whom they can prescribe buprenorphine, a drug that combats opioid addiction, from 100 to 200.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
writer22816
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States5775 Posts
March 29 2016 16:06 GMT
#69764
kwizach and Ghanburighan, thanks for posting those two analyses. I wanted to find out whether Bernie had a shot of winning after sweeping the last 3 states last weekend, and I was getting sick of the ridiculous assertions that Bernie will win without any statistical or mathematical evidence to back it up.
8/4/12 never forget, never forgive.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 29 2016 16:06 GMT
#69765
[image loading]

Source
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:14:15
March 29 2016 16:06 GMT
#69766


The report from the Jupiter Police Department said Corey Lewandowski, 42, was charged for intentionally grabbing and bruising the arm of Michelle Fields, a reporter at the time for the conservative news outlet Breitbart, against her will at a Trump campaign event on March 8.

"Mr. Lewandowski is absolutely innocent of this charge," Trump's campaign said in a statement. "He will enter a plea of not guilty and looks forward to his day in court. He is completely confident that he will be exonerated."


While i consider it funny that this is already considered "battery" - it's even funnier to see that the trump camp still relies on simply stating a lie with confidence even in the face of a video showing the whole incident.

edit: damn you Ghan.
On track to MA1950A.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 29 2016 16:23 GMT
#69767
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:25:26
March 29 2016 16:24 GMT
#69768
On March 30 2016 00:35 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 00:26 LegalLord wrote:
While I'm pretty sure Hillary is going to win the nomination, it's getting annoying how many generic low content pro-Hillary posts you lot are making. Stop that.


That's hilarious, a) Kwizach's post wasn't pro-Hillary, at least not in the traditional sense that it wasn't advocating voting for her, or even improving her image in any way. In fact, the more there is of an aura of inevitability the fewer people will bother to come out and vote for her, b) the post itself wasn't low content in that he posted an analysis piece.

For those people like me who don't vote and just want to understand what's going on in US politics, I much prefer that this thread has good content like Kwizach's rather than partisan mud-flinging from proponents of one or another candidate.

It's a pretty low-content blog post with minimal analysis (IMO, but I could see people seeing it differently), though perhaps I wasn't clear that my response was more specifically to posts like the ones ticklishmusic and oneofthem continue to throw out:

On March 30 2016 00:21 ticklishmusic wrote:
It's like a boxing match, in the end the score might be like 108-110 but the winner was pretty obvious

On March 30 2016 00:33 ticklishmusic wrote:
I get paid to shill by Goldman Sachs, I'm just trying to earn my paycheck here.


It started to be annoying quite a while ago.

On March 30 2016 00:38 kwizach wrote:
LegalLord, feel free to ignore my posts if you're not interested in them

I generally do. Though when low quality articles (and/or articles that contradict the point you make, your other specialty) like that litter the thread, it gets pretty hard not to notice.

All that said, it is pretty clear that Hillary had it won after her huge wins in the South states.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
March 29 2016 16:25 GMT
#69769
given all his thinly veiled threats when it comes to violence and how lashing out is apparently justified as long as you're angry enough, does that really surprise?
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:27:04
March 29 2016 16:26 GMT
#69770
If anyone wants to engage on substantive (and original) discussion, I'm more than happy to. Unfortunately, that hasn't been what's happening recently with the exception of the previous education discussion.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:29:50
March 29 2016 16:26 GMT
#69771
On March 30 2016 01:23 Plansix wrote:
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.


.. eh?

If "unwanted physical contact" is considered battery, the video certainly is evidence. As it clearly shows the dude pulling her back (rather forceful, too).

That, by the definition you've given, is battery. And the video, again, clearly shows that. Now, the trump campaign states that nothing like that ever happened. Even when it's right there on the video. And that statement was made after this particular video was released.

On track to MA1950A.
Falling
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada11379 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:31:56
March 29 2016 16:31 GMT
#69772
On March 30 2016 01:23 Plansix wrote:
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.

Any unwanted physical contact- including if you were obstructing a path and were moved aside? That seems awfully broad- does physical harm have to do with the degree of battery (small fine and go) or have to do with whether battery occurred in the first place?

I guess when I see battery I am most used to it actually being 'assault and battery' and not battery all on it's own, so the actions in the video seemed like a pretty non-issue, but perhaps not in a very strict interpretation of the law?
Moderator"In Trump We Trust," says the Golden Goat of Mars Lago. Have faith and believe! Trump moves in mysterious ways. Like the wind he blows where he pleases...
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 29 2016 16:32 GMT
#69773
On March 30 2016 01:26 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 01:23 Plansix wrote:
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.


.. eh?

If "unwanted physical contact" is considered battery, the video certainly is evidence. As it clearly shows the dude pulling her back (rather forceful, too).

That, by the definition you've given, is battery. And the video, again, clearly shows that. Now, the trump campaign states that nothing like that ever happened. Even when it's right there on the video. And that statement was made after this particular video was released.


Oh, I am sorry. I thought you were saying that nothing wrong took place from the video. I misread your post. I agree that the police should have charged him if the reporter pressed charges. He had unlimited ways to handle that better.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:36:42
March 29 2016 16:34 GMT
#69774
On March 30 2016 01:32 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 01:26 m4ini wrote:
On March 30 2016 01:23 Plansix wrote:
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.


.. eh?

If "unwanted physical contact" is considered battery, the video certainly is evidence. As it clearly shows the dude pulling her back (rather forceful, too).

That, by the definition you've given, is battery. And the video, again, clearly shows that. Now, the trump campaign states that nothing like that ever happened. Even when it's right there on the video. And that statement was made after this particular video was released.


Oh, I am sorry. I thought you were saying that nothing wrong took place from the video. I misread your post. I agree that the police should have charged him if the reporter pressed charges. He had unlimited ways to handle that better.


Nah, i was trying to point out the idiocy of the trump campaign, trying to say "nothing like that ever happened" - while knowing that this video was released.

Any unwanted physical contact- including if you were obstructing a path and were moved aside? That seems awfully broad- does physical harm have to do with the degree of battery (small fine and go) or have to do with whether battery occurred in the first place?


She's not blocking a path. She's walking next to Drumpf, obstructing no one.

I think that's a different issue than "pushing someone out of the way of the presidential candidate".

edit: that being said, i don't know much about laws and their interpretations, it's just my opinion. If someone pulls me back like that for no reason, he better states a reason faster than i can react, i personally would consider that an "attack".
On track to MA1950A.
Falling
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada11379 Posts
March 29 2016 16:38 GMT
#69775
She's not blocking a path. She's walking next to Drumpf, obstructing no one.

I think that's a different issue than "pushing someone out of the way of the presidential candidate".

Fair enough. I'm just trying to get a sense of what battery is all by itself. In a hypothetical scenario where she was intentionally in their path (a protestor say), could they move her aside?
Moderator"In Trump We Trust," says the Golden Goat of Mars Lago. Have faith and believe! Trump moves in mysterious ways. Like the wind he blows where he pleases...
puerk
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany855 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:39:47
March 29 2016 16:39 GMT
#69776
On March 30 2016 00:42 oneofthem wrote:
there is ample opportunity for a split of the dem party. give these guys a region of the country to run and see how. that works out.


oh wait


oh wait - vermont already went up in flames as the worst dumpster fire in american history, or what did you want to imply there?
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:41:15
March 29 2016 16:40 GMT
#69777
On March 30 2016 01:31 Falling wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 01:23 Plansix wrote:
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.

Any unwanted physical contact- including if you were obstructing a path and were moved aside? That seems awfully broad- does physical harm have to do with the degree of battery (small fine and go) or have to do with whether battery occurred in the first place?

I guess when I see battery I am most used to it actually being 'assault and battery' and not battery all on it's own, so the actions in the video seemed like a pretty non-issue, but perhaps not in a very strict interpretation of the law?

I only worked in probation for a little over a year, but blocking someone’s path isn’t really a crime unless you stop them from being able to leave all together. Even then, I doubt it unless it was for a crazy period of time. Trump is running for president and he can’t make claims that he is being “harassed” by reporters at a rally he holds, since that is literally the role of the press in general.

To be clear, Trump and his staff have every right to limit her access and make her back off. It is the method that they employee that is in question, not the act itself. If someone is going to have to get physical with a super pushy reporter(which happens), it should be the Secret Service.

On March 30 2016 01:38 Falling wrote:
Show nested quote +
She's not blocking a path. She's walking next to Drumpf, obstructing no one.

I think that's a different issue than "pushing someone out of the way of the presidential candidate".

Fair enough. I'm just trying to get a sense of what battery is all by itself. In a hypothetical scenario where she was intentionally in their path (a protestor say), could they move her aside?


Battery is without intimidation before hand. There are no threats, it just happens. Assault is the act of threatening before the violence.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-29 16:45:54
March 29 2016 16:43 GMT
#69778
On March 30 2016 01:38 Falling wrote:
Show nested quote +
She's not blocking a path. She's walking next to Drumpf, obstructing no one.

I think that's a different issue than "pushing someone out of the way of the presidential candidate".

Fair enough. I'm just trying to get a sense of what battery is all by itself. In a hypothetical scenario where she was intentionally in their path (a protestor say), could they move her aside?


As i said. I got no idea about the legal side in that case, i would assume that would be battery too, if you don't have any "special rights". As in, police, security, secret service and all other kinds that would be able to "protect" someone.

But again, she wasn't, as the video pretty clearly shows. She's walking right next to trump, the person behind her walking too, didn't need to dodge, slow down or something.

edit: and "asking not nice questions", is not enough reasons to forcefully remove a reporter. At least in my mind, but again, i have no idea about legality in that case.

On top of that, the main part, it certainly doesn't make sense to state "nothing happened" instead of "she did X and i was trying to prevent that". He (and the trump campaign) are flat out lying.
On track to MA1950A.
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
March 29 2016 16:49 GMT
#69779
On March 30 2016 01:31 Falling wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 01:23 Plansix wrote:
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.

Any unwanted physical contact- including if you were obstructing a path and were moved aside? That seems awfully broad- does physical harm have to do with the degree of battery (small fine and go) or have to do with whether battery occurred in the first place?

I guess when I see battery I am most used to it actually being 'assault and battery' and not battery all on it's own, so the actions in the video seemed like a pretty non-issue, but perhaps not in a very strict interpretation of the law?


Unwanted, unlawful, physical contact. Now, every statute is a little different in defining what is unlawful, but typically you have a mens rea element of recklessness +. This is a decent summary from what I've skimmed.
Freeeeeeedom
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
March 29 2016 16:54 GMT
#69780
On March 30 2016 01:49 cLutZ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2016 01:31 Falling wrote:
On March 30 2016 01:23 Plansix wrote:
Battery is unwanted physical contact of any sort. If you are pushed, its battery. It’s the name of the crime. Assault is verbal/nonverbal threats of violence or intimidation. And that video doesn’t prove anything. He could have grabbed her so hard it caused physical harm and we wouldn’t know. The police generally don't pull the trigger on these without some reasonable amount of evidence.

But this is Florida, so who knows.

Any unwanted physical contact- including if you were obstructing a path and were moved aside? That seems awfully broad- does physical harm have to do with the degree of battery (small fine and go) or have to do with whether battery occurred in the first place?

I guess when I see battery I am most used to it actually being 'assault and battery' and not battery all on it's own, so the actions in the video seemed like a pretty non-issue, but perhaps not in a very strict interpretation of the law?


Unwanted, unlawful, physical contact. Now, every statute is a little different in defining what is unlawful, but typically you have a mens rea element of recklessness +. This is a decent summary from what I've skimmed.



From your link:

Many states follow the common-law approach and require specific intent or purposely, or general intent or knowingly. [2] Others include reckless intent, [3] or negligent intent. [4]


The most "used" approach is knowingly/intention. Not recklessness.
On track to MA1950A.
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