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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
If you though sanders had a barrel of ammunition can you imagine how hard it'll be for trump to get Hispanic votes? Black voters don't go anywhere in large enough numbers.
And the guy won't be able to run rallies if the violence situation doesn't improve. Which is completely his fault for asking his supporters to do violence on protestors.
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My favorite part about Trump and his supporters is their willingness to jump on the first youtube video they can find with a good search and just assume it is god given fact. Trusting that video is a sign of someone who got all they need to know about terrorists from Michael Bay movies.
Edit: 10 to 1 odds that guy wasn't armed in any way. It a total shock protest, like shoe man and Bush.
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On March 13 2016 14:18 Plansix wrote:
My favorite part about Trump and his supporters is their willingness to jump on the first youtube video they can find with a good search and just assume it is god given fact. Trusting that video is a sign of someone who got all they need to know about terrorists from Michael Bay movies.
It's also telling to me that when you're a Trump supporter and you want to smear someone, your first idea is to add some muslim music on one of his videos.
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On March 13 2016 14:18 Plansix wrote:
My favorite part about Trump and his supporters is their willingness to jump on the first youtube video they can find with a good search and just assume it is god given fact. Trusting that video is a sign of someone who got all they need to know about terrorists from Michael Bay movies.
as opposed to jumping conclusion of a black and white photo with minimal context?
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On March 13 2016 11:55 ErectedZenith wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 11:47 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 11:41 oBlade wrote:
Trump is exactly where you would expect a frontrunner to be at this point in the primary out of a field of four candidates. Except the data shows he's behind previous frontrunners at the same point in the primary, both in terms of favorability/unfavorability in the general electorate and in terms of support within the Republican electorate. On March 13 2016 11:43 ErectedZenith wrote:On March 13 2016 11:04 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:On March 13 2016 10:25 ticklishmusic wrote:
Well that's a little messed up.
Bernie has a responsibility to tell his supporters that stuff like this is wrong. He can't keep pretending to run a clean campaign when his supporters are pulling stuff like this. I wonder how many people on TL really work as staff for a campaign, be it Clinton's one or someone else's. Any other shills out there? It used to be just Putin and Israel having their sock puppets here on TL. Kzw have been shilling for Hillary a lot. A Trump supporter with a flimsy grasp on reality, how surprising :-) Apparently, now, defending a candidate in the face of unfair repeated attacks is "shilling". Yes, I'm clearly getting a Goldman Sachs paycheck at the end of the day for defending her, you're onto something. Average Trump supporters have more grasp on reality than you.
On March 13 2016 14:07 ErectedZenith wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 13:58 Nebuchad wrote:On March 13 2016 13:47 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 13:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Man who attempted to charge stage and assault Trump in Ohio identified as Tommy Dimassimo. Sanders supporter, BLM supporter , ISIS sympathiser and anarchist.
What a douche. There's left. and then there's this fucking retard. How the fuck are you a BLM supporter and an ISIS sympathizer? Dhimmi's are essentially 2nd class citizens/slaves under Sharia law. Unless he thinks all blacks are going to convert to Islam... Jesus, how the fuck can someone be so retarded? Dude... He's obviously not an ISIS sympathizer... Do you believe everything you read? Dude, do you have prove otherwise?
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On March 13 2016 14:20 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 14:18 Plansix wrote:
My favorite part about Trump and his supporters is their willingness to jump on the first youtube video they can find with a good search and just assume it is god given fact. Trusting that video is a sign of someone who got all they need to know about terrorists from Michael Bay movies. It's also telling to me that when you're a Trump supporter and you want to smear someone, your first idea is to add some muslim music on one of his videos.
And some good old google translate Arabic text for good measure too. No one will check at all. The fact that Trump and his son retweet and believe this shit is the best part. Peak Trump.
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Trump is just exercising his constitutional right to deceive hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people, just like Carly Fiorina did about Planned Parenthood videos. There's nothing wrong with lying and never facing any consequences for it. It's perfectly healthy for democracy.
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On March 13 2016 14:26 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 14:20 Nebuchad wrote:On March 13 2016 14:18 Plansix wrote:
My favorite part about Trump and his supporters is their willingness to jump on the first youtube video they can find with a good search and just assume it is god given fact. Trusting that video is a sign of someone who got all they need to know about terrorists from Michael Bay movies. It's also telling to me that when you're a Trump supporter and you want to smear someone, your first idea is to add some muslim music on one of his videos. And some good old google translate Arabic text for good measure too. No one will check at all. The fact that Trump and his son retweet and believe this shit is the best part. Peak Trump.
Honestly I doubt he believed it. Why let the truth stand in the way of a good dose of polemics? After it's debunked, he just has to claim he was dumb enough to believe it and his retweet was honest, it's not like appearing ignorant is going to hurt him.
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On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 13:36 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 12:55 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 12:49 oBlade wrote:Exit polls are a fair enough source for the individual states where you have data. But you can't (easily) extrapolate national trends there. Your source says Trump led Cruz and Rubio in favorability in New Hampshire (the only state with data in both 2012 and 2016, right) primary exit polls. What do you want from me?  I'll repeat yet again: we are not comparing Trump to the other current Republican contenders for the nomination: "your point was about Trump's status as frontrunner compared to other frontrunners in previous election years, not compared to other current Republican candidates. Here is your initial question in case you "forgot": "do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?"" On March 13 2016 12:49 oBlade wrote:You might have missed the post that started this before you jumped in and started clipboarding: On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:22 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:07 Sermokala wrote:On March 13 2016 08:02 Gorsameth wrote:
[quote]
The tea party drawing the them away from the center during primaries. I'm pretty sure hes referring to the iraq civl war. The tea party was only in response to the democratic super majority. No... Plansix is saying the population hasn't changed between 2012 and 2016, implying something like Republican candidates will never have a chance, and I'm saying that the country also didn't go through any major demographic change between 2004 and 2008. I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. If his favorability polls are the same as his opponents' and he's right where Romney was in 2012, what's the issue? Can you explicitly tell me what you're trying to convince me of? No, I didn't miss that post, but perhaps you didn't read it considering Trump is not where Romney was in 2012 with regards to his general favorability ratings, and he is lower than Romney as well with respect to his support among Republican voters (this means looking at how non-Romney/Trump voters position themselves with regards to their potential support for Romney/Trump). Again, read the averages on RCP and the data analyzed on 538. You're having an argument with yourself and it's become embarrassing. I have said that Trump is in the same place in the election as the guy from the immediately preceding one under similar circumstances (who went on to get 47% of the popular vote in the general election). Election, as in primaries, as in actual voters. Your dishonesty in this discussion, and your repeated ignoring of the data I've provided you with, is what's embarrassing.
On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:
Now, the facts, and the historical precedents you asked for, tell us that there are two things that are clearly "wrong with his performance as frontrunner", with respect to what was being discussed (being more electable in a general election). I'll discuss both with regards to historical precedents to answer yet again your initial question.
I have always been talking about the race for the GOP nomination.
On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:The first thing is that despite being the frontrunner, Trump is a much more divisive potential nominate than the people who ended up being frontrunners in previous elections. His percentages of Republicans who voted in the primaries and who would be happy with him as the Republican nominee are considerably lower than Romney's at a similar point in the race. This is documented and analyzed at length in the 538 piece I linked you to.
You can go to Wikipedia, like I suggested, and see Trump and Romney are in the same ballpark with the popular vote (which has been at record turnout this cycle) around this time in the campaign.
About him being divisive: This is a separate claim that you are making. This is not a refutation of a claim that I have made. Nonetheless, we've been over it before: you're talking about exit polls in 4 states from 2012. I'm not ignoring your data. I'm rejecting its significance and relevance to what I'm talking about. You've pasted it at me fifty times. Going by your own data, Trump is no more "divisive" than Cruz or Rubio, so I'm not inclined to care about this. It's not a special quality that's going to jeopardize him getting the nomination. If I were to conclude anything from favorability spreads among the leaders, it would just be that this has been a tighter race than 2012.
If you knew what you were doing, you would be looking for an actual example of someone who was leading the primaries at a margin similar to Trump, with a favorability among Republicans similar to Trump's, preferably in a field of 4-5, who got overtaken and ended up losing the nomination to another guy.
On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:
What is being discussed how well he is doing in his prospects for the general election at this time compared to the frontrunners in previous elections.
That may be what you're discussing, but what I have been talking about is about the race for the GOP nomination.
Also, take a look at this article from your favorite website. I can speak to the question of general election viability if you want, but I'd need you to accept that that point isn't what I've been focusing on thus far.
I'm getting more than a little bit sick of explaining my beliefs to you and trying to give responses to yours when they come up, only to have you try and tell me my beliefs are something else and copy/paste the same mistake-ridden snark explaining why a position that I'm not representing is wrong.
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On March 13 2016 14:31 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Trump is just exercising his constitutional right to deceive hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people, just like Carly Fiorina did about Planned Parenthood videos. There's nothing wrong with lying and never facing any consequences for it. It's perfectly healthy for democracy. What a healthy view of politics, minus the verbal irony. I would say "attempt to deceive," since the actual deception requires two parties (and I say one is easily deceived/not civically engaged).
Now the second thing with lying and consequences is very often the lying becomes the repeated truth. Who's against truth-telling?
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On March 13 2016 15:21 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 13:36 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 12:55 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 12:49 oBlade wrote:Exit polls are a fair enough source for the individual states where you have data. But you can't (easily) extrapolate national trends there. Your source says Trump led Cruz and Rubio in favorability in New Hampshire (the only state with data in both 2012 and 2016, right) primary exit polls. What do you want from me? I'll repeat yet again: we are not comparing Trump to the other current Republican contenders for the nomination: "your point was about Trump's status as frontrunner compared to other frontrunners in previous election years, not compared to other current Republican candidates. Here is your initial question in case you "forgot": "do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?"" On March 13 2016 12:49 oBlade wrote:You might have missed the post that started this before you jumped in and started clipboarding: On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:22 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:07 Sermokala wrote:
[quote]
I'm pretty sure hes referring to the iraq civl war. The tea party was only in response to the democratic super majority. No... Plansix is saying the population hasn't changed between 2012 and 2016, implying something like Republican candidates will never have a chance, and I'm saying that the country also didn't go through any major demographic change between 2004 and 2008. I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. If his favorability polls are the same as his opponents' and he's right where Romney was in 2012, what's the issue? Can you explicitly tell me what you're trying to convince me of? No, I didn't miss that post, but perhaps you didn't read it considering Trump is not where Romney was in 2012 with regards to his general favorability ratings, and he is lower than Romney as well with respect to his support among Republican voters (this means looking at how non-Romney/Trump voters position themselves with regards to their potential support for Romney/Trump). Again, read the averages on RCP and the data analyzed on 538. You're having an argument with yourself and it's become embarrassing. I have said that Trump is in the same place in the election as the guy from the immediately preceding one under similar circumstances (who went on to get 47% of the popular vote in the general election). Election, as in primaries, as in actual voters. Your dishonesty in this discussion, and your repeated ignoring of the data I've provided you with, is what's embarrassing. Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:
Now, the facts, and the historical precedents you asked for, tell us that there are two things that are clearly "wrong with his performance as frontrunner", with respect to what was being discussed (being more electable in a general election). I'll discuss both with regards to historical precedents to answer yet again your initial question. I have always been talking about the race for the GOP nomination.
My previous post clearly presents the context of the discussion, which was about general election prospects. You asked a direct question to Plansix about his point with regards to Trump's "performance as frontrunner". His point was never that Trump was likely to lose the Republican nomination; it was about Trump's weakness as a candidate both in terms of lack of support among the Republican electorate and among the general electorate. Perhaps you misunderstood Plansix' points, I don't know. Regardless, the first data I presented you with still show Trump as a more divisive candidate than Romney among the Republican electorate. The fact that he is winning states and getting 35%-40% of the vote is not being disputed. The point is that the people who are not voting for him are less likely to be happy with him as the nominee than the people who did not vote for Romney early in the primary were about Romney as the nominee.
On March 13 2016 15:21 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:The first thing is that despite being the frontrunner, Trump is a much more divisive potential nominee than the people who ended up being frontrunners in previous elections. His percentages of Republicans who voted in the primaries and who would be happy with him as the Republican nominee are considerably lower than Romney's at a similar point in the race. This is documented and analyzed at length in the 538 piece I linked you to. You can go to Wikipedia, like I suggested, and see Trump and Romney are in the same ballpark with the popular vote (which has been at record turnout this cycle) around this time in the campaign.
This is not something that is being disputed. Why you are still bringing this up is beyond me.
On March 13 2016 15:21 oBlade wrote:
About him being divisive: This is a separate claim that you are making. This is not a refutation of a claim that I have made. Nonetheless, we've been over it before: you're talking about exit polls in 4 states from 2012. I'm not ignoring your data. I'm rejecting its significance and relevance to what I'm talking about. You've pasted it at me fifty times. Going by your own data, Trump is no more "divisive" than Cruz or Rubio, so I'm not inclined to care about this. It's not a special quality that's going to jeopardize him getting the nomination. If I were to conclude anything from favorability spreads among the leaders, it would just be that this has been a tighter race than 2012.
Your question was not about Trump's strength with regards to the Republican electorate compared to Cruz and Rubio. It was about Trump's strength with regards to the Republican electorate compared to previous frontrunners. And like I said, Trump is a much more divisive potential nominee than the people who ended up being frontrunners in previous elections. His percentages of Republicans who voted in the primaries and who would be happy with him as the Republican nominee are considerably lower than Romney's at a similar point in the race. This is documented and analyzed at length in the 538 piece I linked you to. Their conclusion is: "No recent precedent for a front-runner as divisive as Trump". This is among Republican primary voters. It is directly significant and relevant to what you're talking about, and you're ignoring it for no other reason than the fact that it doesn't support your point.
On March 13 2016 15:21 oBlade wrote:
If you knew what you were doing, you would be looking for an actual example of someone who was leading the primaries at a margin similar to Trump, with a favorability among Republicans similar to Trump's, preferably in a field of 4-5, who got overtaken and ended up losing the nomination to another guy.
No, because nobody is claiming that Trump is going to lose the nomination. That is not a position being defended in this discussion. It's a strawman you've invented out of thin air.
On March 13 2016 15:21 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 14:09 kwizach wrote:
What is being discussed how well he is doing in his prospects for the general election at this time compared to the frontrunners in previous elections. That may be what you're discussing, but what I have been talking about is about the race for the GOP nomination. Also, take a look at this article from your favorite website. I can speak to the question of general election viability if you want, but I'd need you to accept that that point isn't what I've been focusing on thus far. I'm getting more than a little bit sick of explaining my beliefs to you and trying to give responses to yours when they come up, only to have you try and tell me my beliefs are something else and copy/paste the same mistake-ridden snark explaining why a position that I'm not representing is wrong.
1. There were no mistakes in what I presented you with.
2. You are the one who replied to Plansix, asking him a question about the point he was making. If you misunderstood his point, that's on you.
3. The data I presented you with also shows Trump in a weaker position than Romney among the Republican electorate with regards to who they would be happy with as their nominee. It therefore shows that the answer to your question is that yes, there is a historical precedent that shows there is something wrong with his performance. This is not to say that Trump will not be the nominee. I am not arguing that. What's wrong is his standing among the Republicans who did not vote for him in the primary.
4. The article you linked to criticizes the only type of poll you've cited so far, namely two polls (one for Trump, one for Romney) about candidates' general favorability. The data I've presented you with about the GOP electorate's relation to Trump in each state is precisely the type of data they describe in the article as more valuable.
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I'm guessing that a lot of Trump's negatives come from people who didn't like that Trump fired the person they liked on The Apprentice so his negatives can only decrease the closer we get to November. While Hillary Clinton's negatives come from actual serious stuff like Benghazi,the e-mail scandal, and lack of trustworthiness, so her negatives can only go up the closer we get to November.
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This is the post of mine that you responded to:
On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:22 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:07 Sermokala wrote:On March 13 2016 08:02 Gorsameth wrote:On March 13 2016 07:59 oBlade wrote:
The country elected a Republican only 12 years ago. Is there something different that happened to the picture between 2004 and 2008 that the country went over a waterfall where it'll never elect another Republican executive? The tea party drawing the them away from the center during primaries. I'm pretty sure hes referring to the iraq civl war. The tea party was only in response to the democratic super majority. No... Plansix is saying the population hasn't changed between 2012 and 2016, implying something like Republican candidates will never have a chance, and I'm saying that the country also didn't go through any major demographic change between 2004 and 2008. I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something? There is this. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans. Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question. + Show Spoiler +Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdfTrump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdfRomney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as.
which was taking up this unambiguous statement by Plansix:
He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries.
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On March 13 2016 16:17 oBlade wrote:This is the post of mine that you responded to: Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:22 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:07 Sermokala wrote:On March 13 2016 08:02 Gorsameth wrote:
[quote]
The tea party drawing the them away from the center during primaries. I'm pretty sure hes referring to the iraq civl war. The tea party was only in response to the democratic super majority. No... Plansix is saying the population hasn't changed between 2012 and 2016, implying something like Republican candidates will never have a chance, and I'm saying that the country also didn't go through any major demographic change between 2004 and 2008. I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something? There is this. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans. Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question. + Show Spoiler +Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdfTrump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdfRomney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as. which was taking up this unambiguous statement by Plansix: Show nested quote +He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries.
You are taking that sentence out of context. I presented the entire discussion again here. Let me quote myself to show you how the exchange went again:
1. This is Plansix' original post: "I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. "
2. wei2coolman responds by asking him if he truly believes Trump can't "grab general electorate", despite "Trumps [sic] increase in general public voting for primaries".
3. Plansix confirms his initial stance, replying "Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views.".
4. You join the discussion, asking "do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?".
He was presenting Trump as an unappealing option for the Republican electorate (which the data analyzed by 538 shows he is more so than Romney, for the voters choosing other candidates), as well as a frontrunner who was not looking good for the general election. I replied on both fronts.
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On March 13 2016 16:46 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 16:17 oBlade wrote:This is the post of mine that you responded to: On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:22 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:07 Sermokala wrote:
[quote]
I'm pretty sure hes referring to the iraq civl war. The tea party was only in response to the democratic super majority. No... Plansix is saying the population hasn't changed between 2012 and 2016, implying something like Republican candidates will never have a chance, and I'm saying that the country also didn't go through any major demographic change between 2004 and 2008. I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something? There is this. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans. Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question. + Show Spoiler +Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdfTrump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdfRomney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as. which was taking up this unambiguous statement by Plansix: He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. You are taking that sentence out of context.
No. I was solely addressing the doubts about his primary performance (and the implicit expectation that he ought to be further ahead), which you've yet to realize four pages later. 
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On March 13 2016 16:58 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 16:46 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 16:17 oBlade wrote:This is the post of mine that you responded to: On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:22 oBlade wrote:
[quote]
No... Plansix is saying the population hasn't changed between 2012 and 2016, implying something like Republican candidates will never have a chance, and I'm saying that the country also didn't go through any major demographic change between 2004 and 2008. I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something? There is this. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans. Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question. + Show Spoiler +Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdfTrump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdfRomney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as. which was taking up this unambiguous statement by Plansix: He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. You are taking that sentence out of context. No. I was solely addressing the doubts about his primary performance (and the implicit expectation that he ought to be further ahead), which you've yet to realize four pages later.
Yes you are, since Plansix' points was not only about Trump's weakness with respect to the Republican electorate participating in the primary, and you did not specify otherwise in the question you asked him (which is why he replied to you in relation to his main point about the general electorate).
Regardless, and like I've repeatedly pointed out, I still addressed your point on this particular topic, as distinct from Trump's weakness with respect to the general electorate, by presenting you with data and an analysis of that data which show that Trump is in a weaker position than Romney among the Republican electorate with regards to who they would be happy with as their nominee. The answer to your question is therefore that yes, there is a historical precedent that shows there is something wrong with Trump's performance with regards to the Republican primary, namely how he is viewed among the Republicans who did not vote for him in the primary. The Republicans who did not vote in the primary for the frontrunner were more likely to be ready to support the frontrunner in 2012 than they are in 2016. This is a fact. It directly answers your question. After four pages of discussion, either you have a serious cognitive problem preventing you from acknowledging this fact (and acknowledging it as relevant to what we're discussing), or you're deliberately (and dishonestly) ignoring it.
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On March 13 2016 17:17 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 16:58 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 16:46 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 16:17 oBlade wrote:This is the post of mine that you responded to: On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:
[quote]
I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something? There is this. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans. Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question. + Show Spoiler +Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdfTrump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdfRomney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as. which was taking up this unambiguous statement by Plansix: He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. You are taking that sentence out of context. No. I was solely addressing the doubts about his primary performance (and the implicit expectation that he ought to be further ahead), which you've yet to realize four pages later. Yes you are, since Plansix' points was not only about Trump's weakness with respect to the Republican electorate participating in the primary, and you did not specify otherwise in the question you asked him (which is why he replied to you in relation to his main point about the general electorate). Regardless, and like I've repeatedly pointed out, I still addressed your point on this particular topic, as distinct from Trump's weakness with respect to the general electorate, by presenting you with data and an analysis of that data which show that Trump is in a weaker position than Romney among the Republican electorate with regards to who they would be happy with as their nominee. The answer to your question is therefore that yes, there is a historical precedent that shows there is something wrong with Trump's performance with regards to the Republican primary, namely how he is viewed among the Republicans who did not vote for him in the primary. The Republicans who did not vote in the primary for the frontrunner were more likely to be ready to support the frontrunner in 2012 than they are in 2016. This is a fact. It directly answers your question. After four pages of discussion, either you have a serious cognitive problem preventing you from acknowledging this fact (and acknowledging it as relevant to what we're discussing), or you're deliberately ignoring it.
Did I miss some kind of bet in the thread?
Like, somebody challenged oBlade or kwizach to beat the obstinancy of the old Jonny/GH threads? When confronted with a brick wall you pack your bags and leave. I'm reading all these text blocks and eventually all the favorability, primaries, elections, and allegations of cognitive inhibition ... they all blur together into a wordy mess. If it was possible to force acceptance that one or the other uhh uhhhh originally and improperly shifted the debate(?), it would've happened by now.
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On March 13 2016 17:17 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 16:58 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 16:46 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 16:17 oBlade wrote:This is the post of mine that you responded to: On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:On March 13 2016 08:34 Plansix wrote:
[quote]
I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate? I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something? There is this. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans. Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question. + Show Spoiler +Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdfTrump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdfRomney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as. which was taking up this unambiguous statement by Plansix: He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. You are taking that sentence out of context. No. I was solely addressing the doubts about his primary performance (and the implicit expectation that he ought to be further ahead), which you've yet to realize four pages later. Yes you are, since Plansix' points was not only about Trump's weakness with respect to the Republican electorate participating in the primary, and you did not specify otherwise in the question you asked him (which is why he replied to you in relation to his main point about the general electorate). Regardless, and like I've repeatedly pointed out, I still addressed your point on this particular topic, as distinct from Trump's weakness with respect to the general electorate, by presenting you with data and an analysis of that data which show that Trump is in a weaker position than Romney among the Republican electorate with regards to who they would be happy with as their nominee. The answer to your question is therefore that yes, there is a historical precedent that shows there is something wrong with Trump's performance with regards to the Republican primary, namely how he is viewed among the Republicans who did not vote for him in the primary. The Republicans who did not vote in the primary for the frontrunner were more likely to be ready to support the frontrunner in 2012 than they are in 2016. This is a fact. It directly answers your question. After four pages of discussion, either you have a serious cognitive problem preventing you from acknowledging this fact (and acknowledging it as relevant to what we're discussing), or you're deliberately (and dishonestly) ignoring it.
What, in your own words, do you believe my point was?
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On March 13 2016 17:53 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2016 17:17 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 16:58 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 16:46 kwizach wrote:On March 13 2016 16:17 oBlade wrote:This is the post of mine that you responded to: On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:
[quote]
Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate?
I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years. Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something? There is this. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans. Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question. + Show Spoiler +Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdfTrump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdfRomney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%. If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as. which was taking up this unambiguous statement by Plansix: He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. You are taking that sentence out of context. No. I was solely addressing the doubts about his primary performance (and the implicit expectation that he ought to be further ahead), which you've yet to realize four pages later. Yes you are, since Plansix' points was not only about Trump's weakness with respect to the Republican electorate participating in the primary, and you did not specify otherwise in the question you asked him (which is why he replied to you in relation to his main point about the general electorate). Regardless, and like I've repeatedly pointed out, I still addressed your point on this particular topic, as distinct from Trump's weakness with respect to the general electorate, by presenting you with data and an analysis of that data which show that Trump is in a weaker position than Romney among the Republican electorate with regards to who they would be happy with as their nominee. The answer to your question is therefore that yes, there is a historical precedent that shows there is something wrong with Trump's performance with regards to the Republican primary, namely how he is viewed among the Republicans who did not vote for him in the primary. The Republicans who did not vote in the primary for the frontrunner were more likely to be ready to support the frontrunner in 2012 than they are in 2016. This is a fact. It directly answers your question. After four pages of discussion, either you have a serious cognitive problem preventing you from acknowledging this fact (and acknowledging it as relevant to what we're discussing), or you're deliberately (and dishonestly) ignoring it. What, in your own words, do you believe my point was?
I answered that in the post you just quoted. If you have nothing to reply to the evidence I presented you with to show Trump's specific weakness among the Republican primary electorate compared to the previous frontrunner (Romney), stop deflecting and stop replying altogether.
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EPT
