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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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kwizach
3658 Posts
On March 13 2016 12:02 oBlade wrote: 35-40% of the popular vote is right where Romney was in March 2012. I provided you with the data supporting my point two posts ago, and you completely ignored it. Move on, you're clearly not debating in good faith. | ||
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oBlade
United States5771 Posts
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kwizach
3658 Posts
On March 13 2016 12:13 oBlade wrote: You can find the primary results from 2012 on Wikipedia and judge for yourself whether there's a significant difference between Romney and Trump's performances so far. Unsurprisingly, you are still ignoring the data I presented you with in my previous post, explaining the differences between Romney and Trump at this point in the campaign. Nobody is disputing that Trump is winning the Republican primary. You're willfully ignoring what is being said. Let's look at what I said again: On March 13 2016 10:43 oBlade wrote: It means four states in 2012 are not the same thing as six states in 2016. Do you understand yet? The stuff you quoted doesn't name the states, and here you are trying to argue that your poll is important and you haven't even looked up what states? The PPP polls are a national survey. What I linked is comparing apples to apples. Your source doesn't even tell us what fruits. I'm not sure what article you read, but mine does name the states.Clearly you only read the quote I posted and not the original article in which the numbers for each state are displayed in tables. Perhaps you should bother to clink a simple link before falsely claiming my source doesn't provide that information? "Do you understand yet" how links work? There is one state for which numbers are available across both elections, namely New Hampshire, and unsurprisingly Romney's number are considerably higher than Trump's. Exit polls (= of people who actually voted) are also a much better indicator than national surveys of "usual primary voters". All of the other states are surveyed around the same period, and the range of the numbers of Romney and Trump among them is telling even if they don't appear for both elections. But sure, let's look at national polls and favorable/unfavorable opinions. RealClearPolitics indicates that Romney's worst "favorable minus unfavorable" numbers were in early March, around -11 in the poll averages. What about Trump's? Oops! His numbers are considerably worse again (link doesn't work for some reason: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html). Feel free to compare the numbers from pollster to pollster and around to same dates to control for these variables -- the results are the same. On March 13 2016 10:43 oBlade wrote: The fact that Cruz and Rubio have identical ratings in your results would tell us Trump isn't special at all, which has been my point. No, your point was about Trump's status as frontrunner compared to other frontrunners in previous election years, not compared to other current Republican candidates. Here is your initial question in case you "forgot": "do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?" Compared to previous frontrunners, his performance among Republican voters is poor (he is a more divisive candidate), as are his general favorability/unfavorability ratings, as the 538 article and the polls on RealClearPolitics clearly indicate. | ||
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oBlade
United States5771 Posts
 You might have missed the post that started this before you jumped in and started clipboarding: On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote: Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views. If his favorability polls are the same as his opponents' and he's right where Romney was in 2012, what's the issue? Can you explicitly tell me what you're trying to convince me of? | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4361 Posts
Anyway, Marco Mondale won D.C. The establishments last stand? (Besides Clinton of course) | ||
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kwizach
3658 Posts
On March 13 2016 12:49 oBlade wrote: Exit polls are a fair enough source for the individual states where you have data. But you can't (easily) extrapolate national trends there. Your source says Trump led Cruz and Rubio in favorability in New Hampshire (the only state with data in both 2012 and 2016, right) primary exit polls. What do you want from me? I'll repeat yet again: we are not comparing Trump to the other current Republican contenders for the nomination: "your point was about Trump's status as frontrunner compared to other frontrunners in previous election years, not compared to other current Republican candidates. Here is your initial question in case you "forgot": "do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?"" On March 13 2016 12:49 oBlade wrote: You might have missed the post that started this before you jumped in and started clipboarding: If his favorability polls are the same as his opponents' and he's right where Romney was in 2012, what's the issue? Can you explicitly tell me what you're trying to convince me of? No, I didn't miss that post, but perhaps you didn't read it considering Trump is not where Romney was in 2012 with regards to his general favorability ratings, and he is lower than Romney as well with respect to his support among Republican voters (this means looking at how non-Romney/Trump voters position themselves with regards to their potential support for Romney/Trump). Again, read the averages on RCP and the data analyzed on 538. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4361 Posts
What a douche. | ||
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ErectedZenith
325 Posts
On March 13 2016 13:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Man who attempted to charge stage and assault Trump in Ohio identified as Tommy Dimassimo.Sanders supporter, BLM supporter , ISIS sympathiser and anarchist. What a douche. I knew it! | ||
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kwizach
3658 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12365 Posts
On March 13 2016 13:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Sanders supporter, BLM supporter, ISIS sympathiser and anarchist. So hard to differentiate enemies... Must... Lump in... Together... Now... | ||
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Karis Vas Ryaar
United States4396 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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oBlade
United States5771 Posts
On March 13 2016 12:55 kwizach wrote: I'll repeat yet again: we are not comparing Trump to the other current Republican contenders for the nomination: "your point was about Trump's status as frontrunner compared to other frontrunners in previous election years, not compared to other current Republican candidates. Here is your initial question in case you "forgot": "do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?"" No, I didn't miss that post, but perhaps you didn't read it considering Trump is not where Romney was in 2012 with regards to his general favorability ratings, and he is lower than Romney as well with respect to his support among Republican voters (this means looking at how non-Romney/Trump voters position themselves with regards to their potential support for Romney/Trump). Again, read the averages on RCP and the data analyzed on 538. You're having an argument with yourself and it's become embarrassing. I have said that Trump is in the same place in the election as the guy from the immediately preceding one under similar circumstances (who went on to get 47% of the popular vote in the general election). Election, as in primaries, as in actual voters. Because you're now trying to introduce the claim that Trump is in bad shape based on the results of favorability polls, I'm obviously going to compare him to Cruz and Rubio because that shows Trump isn't out of the ordinary. | ||
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wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
On March 13 2016 13:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Man who attempted to charge stage and assault Trump in Ohio identified as Tommy Dimassimo. Sanders supporter, BLM supporter , ISIS sympathiser and anarchist. What a douche. There's left. and then there's this fucking retard. How the fuck are you a BLM supporter and an ISIS sympathizer? Dhimmi's are essentially 2nd class citizens/slaves under Sharia law. edit: apparently not isis related; still hilarious regardless. Unless he thinks all blacks are going to convert to Islam... Jesus, how the fuck can someone be so retarded? On March 13 2016 13:30 Plansix wrote: Tommy Dimassimo was radicalized by the guy who threw the shoe at Bush in Iraq. He has been planning this moment for years. He supports NBLA, ISIS, the Illuminati, Windows.NT and loves Abba. The FBI has been hunting him for over a decade. Windows.NT, truly a fucking piece of shit. Man, when black science man has to say something about politics, you know shit's gotten real. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12365 Posts
On March 13 2016 13:47 wei2coolman wrote: There's left. and then there's this fucking retard. How the fuck are you a BLM supporter and an ISIS sympathizer? Dhimmi's are essentially 2nd class citizens/slaves under Sharia law. Unless he thinks all blacks are going to convert to Islam... Jesus, how the fuck can someone be so retarded? Dude... He's obviously not an ISIS sympathizer... Do you believe everything you read? | ||
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ErectedZenith
325 Posts
On March 13 2016 13:58 Nebuchad wrote: Dude... He's obviously not an ISIS sympathizer... Do you believe everything you read? Dude, do you have prove otherwise? | ||
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wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
Come on, let's not play this retarded game, it was my mistake for assuming otherwise. If you assert something the burden of proof is on the person asserting it, not the other way around. | ||
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kwizach
3658 Posts
On March 13 2016 13:36 oBlade wrote: You're having an argument with yourself and it's become embarrassing. I have said that Trump is in the same place in the election as the guy from the immediately preceding one under similar circumstances (who went on to get 47% of the popular vote in the general election). Election, as in primaries, as in actual voters. Your dishonesty in this discussion, and your repeated ignoring of the data I've provided you with, is what's embarrassing. Let's re-cap: 1. This is Plansix' original post: "I never said a Republican couldn't win. But if Romney wasn't able to sway the general electorate 4 years ago, Trump isn't "more electable". Or liked. The general public isn't going to suddenly become super pumped that Trump told his supporters to rough up protesters and other behavior. " 2. wei2coolman responds by asking him if he truly believes Trump can't "grab general electorate", despite "Trumps [sic] increase in general public voting for primaries". 3. Plansix confirms his initial stance, replying "Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views.". 4. You join the discussion, asking "do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?". Now, the facts, and the historical precedents you asked for, tell us that there are two things that are clearly "wrong with his performance as frontrunner", with respect to what was being discussed (being more electable in a general election). I'll discuss both with regards to historical precedents to answer yet again your initial question. a. The first thing is that despite being the frontrunner, Trump is a much more divisive potential nominate than the people who ended up being frontrunners in previous elections. His percentages of Republicans who voted in the primaries and who would be happy with him as the Republican nominee are considerably lower than Romney's at a similar point in the race. This is documented and analyzed at length in the 538 piece I linked you to. Their conclusion is: "No recent precedent for a front-runner as divisive as Trump" b. The second thing to look at is favorability/unfavorability ratings in the general electorate. Again, Trump's numbers are much worse than Romney's at a similar point in the race in 2012. RealClearPolitics indicates that Romney's worst "favorable minus unfavorable" numbers were in early March, around -11 in the poll averages. Trump's numbers are way worse (link doesn't work for some reason: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html). Feel free to compare the numbers from pollster to pollster and around to same dates to control for these variables -- the results are the same. This answers your question as clearly as can be. With regards to the general electorate in its entirety, as well as with respect to the Republicans who participated in the primary and who are part of the general electorate, Trump is in a worse position than previous frontrunners. This is a fact, directly based on the data. Things can obviously change until the general election, but at this time he is in a worse place than previous frontrunners. Period. On March 13 2016 13:36 oBlade wrote: Because you're now trying to introduce the claim that Trump is in bad shape based on the results of favorability polls, I'm obviously going to compare him to Cruz and Rubio because that shows Trump isn't out of the ordinary. I've been arguing the same point since the beginning of this discussion, and you've been obtuse and ignoring the data from the start. There is no need whatsoever to compare him to Cruz and Rubio because his position relative to other current Republican contenders is not what is being discussed. What is being discussed how well he is doing in his prospects for the general election at this time compared to the frontrunners in previous elections. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12365 Posts
The rules of logic. A Bernie supporter with ties to ISIS is someone who is for equal rights for women, equal right for black people, no discrimination between religions, someone who is ready to vote for a jew and basically an atheist, but at the same time thinks radical islamists have a good point. That doesn't make sense. In the same way, if I see a bald white dude with nazi tattoos and a white pride t-shirt chanting with BLM activists at a rally, I don't need to await for proof before I can tell it's bullshit. But I guess you need more, so the video is already being called an hoax: http://heavy.com/news/2016/03/thomas-tom-tommy-dimassimo-donald-trump-rally-rush-stage-secret-service-protester-twitter-younglionking7-photos-video Can't find where I read that again but I'm pretty sure he had no knife either and his grand plan was to spit on Trump. (edit: it's on the same page actually) Best thing I've read all night: Anonymous says: "The scumbag should be charged with attempted murder and spend the rest of his life in jail. [...]" T says: "You typically have to, you know, attempt murder to be charged with attempted murder." | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On March 13 2016 14:13 Nebuchad wrote: The rules of logic. A Bernie supporter with ties to ISIS is someone who is for equal rights for women, equal right for black people, no discrimination between religions, someone who is ready to vote for a jew and basically an atheist, but at the same time thinks radical islamists have a good point. That doesn't make sense. In the same way, if I see a bald white dude with nazi tattoos and a white pride t-shirt chanting with BLM activists at a rally, I don't need to await for proof before I can tell it's bullshit. But I guess you need more, so the video is already being called an hoax: http://heavy.com/news/2016/03/thomas-tom-tommy-dimassimo-donald-trump-rally-rush-stage-secret-service-protester-twitter-younglionking7-photos-video On March 13 2016 14:08 wei2coolman wrote: Come on, let's not play this retarded game, it was my mistake for assuming otherwise. If you assert something the burden of proof is on the person asserting it, not the other way around. Don't try actual logic. You know, as gets said constantly by the person you argue with and his trump supporting friends here, that's all just liberal media telling lies, smearing trump etc. He totally is for sanders, anarchy, women and black rights and equality, while also being for ISIS, which is totally against anarchy, women and black rights and equality amongst other things. I don't find it confusing (or suprising) that this somehow seems logical to a trump supporter, considering the answer we got when a picture of a Hitlergruss turned up (or the constant ignoring and actually quotesnipping of a simple question for two pages, which still isn't answered). | ||
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