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On February 23 2016 02:02 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 01:53 Mohdoo wrote:On February 23 2016 01:31 Plansix wrote:
I question how much independent and swing voters are really interested in that or will find that at all appealing. Him going full clown show on stage will only please his base, not the people who decide general elections.
I think you underestimate the effect of someone being clearly weaker than someone else. Whether Trump goes nuts or not, having a commanding presence and clearly showing himself to be dominant over Clinton or Sanders has giant psychological effects. I imagine Trump will tone down the racism in a potential general and just be real obnoxious and strong. So much of politics is about feeling like you're behind a movement and somewhat identifying with the candidate. When that candidate gets torn in half in a debate, it kills the mood. It will not only lower voter turnout but also likely make some people switch sides. All Trump needs to do is move towards center a bit, focus on all the ways he'll fix healthcare, then be incredibly relentless against his opponent. I honestly think Trump would do well in a general election. Almost every poll in creation has him rated as the most disliked candidate recorded, with an unfavorable rating at like +60%. He is right up there with Bashar al-Assad. As much as people claim that everyone hates Clinton, her national ratings don’t even come close. People really dislike Trump and he would need to be magic to get that to change.
They come pretty close, I've seen Clinton favorable/unfavorable as low as 39-56 this month.
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The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this.
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On February 23 2016 02:12 NovaTheFeared wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:02 Plansix wrote:On February 23 2016 01:53 Mohdoo wrote:On February 23 2016 01:31 Plansix wrote:
I question how much independent and swing voters are really interested in that or will find that at all appealing. Him going full clown show on stage will only please his base, not the people who decide general elections.
I think you underestimate the effect of someone being clearly weaker than someone else. Whether Trump goes nuts or not, having a commanding presence and clearly showing himself to be dominant over Clinton or Sanders has giant psychological effects. I imagine Trump will tone down the racism in a potential general and just be real obnoxious and strong. So much of politics is about feeling like you're behind a movement and somewhat identifying with the candidate. When that candidate gets torn in half in a debate, it kills the mood. It will not only lower voter turnout but also likely make some people switch sides. All Trump needs to do is move towards center a bit, focus on all the ways he'll fix healthcare, then be incredibly relentless against his opponent. I honestly think Trump would do well in a general election. Almost every poll in creation has him rated as the most disliked candidate recorded, with an unfavorable rating at like +60%. He is right up there with Bashar al-Assad. As much as people claim that everyone hates Clinton, her national ratings don’t even come close. People really dislike Trump and he would need to be magic to get that to change. They come pretty close, I've seen Clinton favorable/unfavorable as low as 39-56 this month.
But it goes up and down. T rump is at +60% all the time, non-stop. He support within the Republican primaries also doesn’t grow. It sits at 35% at all times, even when people drop out. He has a devoted base that maybe all he can pull in.
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On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this.
Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda/have had their views shifted by the narrative pushed by Republicans while she did not have a megaphone to defend herself. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's.
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On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's.
I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions.
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I'll update the OP once the conventions end and we can draw up a bet table 
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On February 23 2016 02:40 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's. I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions.
Why wait? We can already bet on the outcome in case it's Clinton vs Trump. If it's different candidates, the bet is void.
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On February 23 2016 02:17 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:12 NovaTheFeared wrote:On February 23 2016 02:02 Plansix wrote:On February 23 2016 01:53 Mohdoo wrote:On February 23 2016 01:31 Plansix wrote:
I question how much independent and swing voters are really interested in that or will find that at all appealing. Him going full clown show on stage will only please his base, not the people who decide general elections.
I think you underestimate the effect of someone being clearly weaker than someone else. Whether Trump goes nuts or not, having a commanding presence and clearly showing himself to be dominant over Clinton or Sanders has giant psychological effects. I imagine Trump will tone down the racism in a potential general and just be real obnoxious and strong. So much of politics is about feeling like you're behind a movement and somewhat identifying with the candidate. When that candidate gets torn in half in a debate, it kills the mood. It will not only lower voter turnout but also likely make some people switch sides. All Trump needs to do is move towards center a bit, focus on all the ways he'll fix healthcare, then be incredibly relentless against his opponent. I honestly think Trump would do well in a general election. Almost every poll in creation has him rated as the most disliked candidate recorded, with an unfavorable rating at like +60%. He is right up there with Bashar al-Assad. As much as people claim that everyone hates Clinton, her national ratings don’t even come close. People really dislike Trump and he would need to be magic to get that to change. They come pretty close, I've seen Clinton favorable/unfavorable as low as 39-56 this month. But it goes up and down. T rump is at +60% all the time, non-stop. He support within the Republican primaries also doesn’t grow. It sits at 35% at all times, even when people drop out. He has a devoted base that maybe all he can pull in.
This was posted a few pages ago:
On February 21 2016 15:28 JW_DTLA wrote:Some data to consider. ~1 year ago, 75% of Rep voters said couldn't vote for Trump. That number is down to ~35% now. This whole "consolidate against Trump" assertion is sorely lacking in data. ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbto08BWIAAh1Ny.jpg)
On February 23 2016 01:34 RoomOfMush wrote:
I just wanted to say that the american presidential race is pure comedy gold. I have not laughed this hard for a long time. Its not just the comedy shows (like Colbert) making fun of them, its the actual news channels too which have just become hillarious. Its like watching parody of the largest scale.
I just hope some doofus will get elected in the end and run the country to the ground. I cant imagine the amount of jokes that we will all get out of that.
Or imagine Trump getting elected and then showing that it was all a ruse and he really is a super liberal guy playing a character for all this time.
I want to see the carnage. I want to see the dirt. I want to see your world burn.
Maybe I'm in a mood right now... There are definitely lots of funny moments along the way in the political process, but on the whole I don't think picking the leader of the free world is ultimately a funny business, It's an easy formula today for late-night TV guys to get cheap laughs (often while proselytizing), but I don't want people to forget that it's ultimately a very serious matter. I do understand the little ironies that rear their heads, like having a leading candidate who had a Comedy Central roast, and they provide a nice relief. But frankly, we had 8 years of just making fun of a president who talked funny... for me that way of looking at politics is played out. I wish the country could grow up sometimes.
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On February 23 2016 02:44 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:40 xDaunt wrote:On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's. I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions. Why wait? We can already bet on the outcome in case it's Clinton vs Trump. If it's different candidates, the bet is void.
Because a lot can happen over the next six months. I want more information.
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On February 23 2016 02:48 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:44 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:40 xDaunt wrote:On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's. I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions. Why wait? We can already bet on the outcome in case it's Clinton vs Trump. If it's different candidates, the bet is void. Because a lot can happen over the next six months. I want more information.
we have come a long way:
On May 01 2011 18:27 xDaunt wrote:
Good. Hopefully people will stop taking Trump seriously now.
On February 20 2016 02:47 xDaunt wrote:
I don't see Trump losing at this point.
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On February 23 2016 02:48 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:44 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:40 xDaunt wrote:On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's. I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions. Why wait? We can already bet on the outcome in case it's Clinton vs Trump. If it's different candidates, the bet is void. Because a lot can happen over the next six months. I want more information.
Of course a lot can happen. If you're as confident in Trump as you keep asserting, though, I don't see why that should be an issue. If anything, you should be encouraged to bet given your repeated insistence that Hillary's e-mails are going to keep damaging her beyond all hope.
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On February 23 2016 02:56 puerk wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:48 xDaunt wrote:On February 23 2016 02:44 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:40 xDaunt wrote:On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's. I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions. Why wait? We can already bet on the outcome in case it's Clinton vs Trump. If it's different candidates, the bet is void. Because a lot can happen over the next six months. I want more information. we have come a long way: Show nested quote +On May 01 2011 18:27 xDaunt wrote:
Good. Hopefully people will stop taking Trump seriously now. Show nested quote +On February 20 2016 02:47 xDaunt wrote:
I don't see Trump losing at this point.
http://www.theonion.com/article/will-be-end-trumps-campaign-says-increasingly-nerv-52002
SALISBURY, MD—Repeating identical comments he had made in June, July, August, September, and twice in November, increasingly nervous local man Aaron Howe responded to Donald Trump’s call to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. Monday by once again stating this would be the end of the Republican frontrunner’s campaign, sources confirmed. “Well, that’s it—you just can’t say those kinds of things and expect to be taken seriously any longer,” said an anxious Howe, his voice quavering slightly as he spoke aloud the very same words he had previously uttered in reaction to remarks about Mexicans, women, the disabled, former POW John McCain, and a number of other targeted parties. “That’s the final nail in the coffin right there. There’s no way he’s coming back from this one.” At press time, a visibly tense Howe was steadily amassing the angst and exasperation that would be unleashed in his seventh expletive-filled exclamation of the year when he catches sight of the newest set of GOP poll numbers.
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On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this.
Let's put it another way. Hillary has been exposed to the most dirty attacks from the right wing propaganda apparatus for decades while Trump's dishonesty's exposure relies to the public's brains, which in his electorate's case, seems to be unfortunately inexistant at best.
Hillary is not a "liar". She has changed her mind on many subject during her career, as most politicians do. And which is kind of normal.
If you kind of cared at all about facts, check out fact checking websites (the NYT has a great fact checking team) and compare how much Trump or Cruz lie, with how many of Hillary's statements are inaccurate.
But as it has been said, facts have a well know liberal bias, or, to put it more bluntly, american modern conservative don't give a flying fuck anyway about the truth and reality.
If you are interested (I assume you are not): http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/13/opinion/campaign-stops/all-politicians-lie-some-lie-more-than-others.html
By the way, and ad hominem aside, the fact that ANYONE can support Trump over Hillary or anyone else for that matter is beyond me. The whole world is watching in awe thinking what the FUCK is wrong with America. That's a national embarrassment. The good thing I guess is that the majority of American won't vote for a lunatic if the Republicans are crazy enough to nominate him. I try to stay optimistic, but with that country, it's increasingly hard.
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On February 23 2016 02:56 puerk wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 23 2016 02:48 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:44 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:40 xDaunt wrote:On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's. I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions. Why wait? We can already bet on the outcome in case it's Clinton vs Trump. If it's different candidates, the bet is void. Because a lot can happen over the next six months. I want more information. we have come a long way: On May 01 2011 18:27 xDaunt wrote:
Good. Hopefully people will stop taking Trump seriously now. On February 20 2016 02:47 xDaunt wrote:
I don't see Trump losing at this point.
The birther issue was ridiculous, which is why I initially didn't think that he'd do well politically. But once I saw him jump out to a lead in July/August last year, I had to reassess.
And no, I don't see Trump losing the republican nomination at this point.
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Maybe a strong leader is just what we need to restore our democracy.
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On February 23 2016 03:24 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Let's put it another way. Hillary has been exposed to the most dirty attacks from the right wing propaganda apparatus for decades while Trump's dishonesty's exposure relies to the public's brains, which in his electorate's case, seems to be unfortunately inexistant at best. Hillary is not a "liar". She has changed her mind on many subject during her career, as most politicians do. And which is kind of normal. If you kind of cared at all about facts, check out fact checking websites (the NYT has a great fact checking team) and compare how much Trump or Cruz lie, with how many of Hillary's statements are inaccurate. But as it has been said, facts have a well know liberal bias, or, to put it more bluntly, american modern conservative don't give a flying fuck anyway about the truth and reality. If you are interested (I assume you are not): http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/13/opinion/campaign-stops/all-politicians-lie-some-lie-more-than-others.html
The difference is that the public popularly perceives Hillary to be a liar. There are numerous studies and polls showing this. Hell, it was reaffirmed once again in this weekend's exit polling. No other presidential candidate is as vulnerable on this point.
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As someone in the Sanders camp, there is very little cross-over appeal for Clinton. Progressive liberals don't like her. Conservatives of all stripes don't like her. Basically, she just has the large moderate liberal camp in her pocket. That does not bode well for her in the general.
Trump is definitely an odd-ball, but here's the thing - when it comes to the general, Republicans rally behind their eventual nominee. As for Democrats? They've always had a problem with voter turnout. The problem with younger voters is that if they don't fully support a candidate, they usually just stay home on election day. I know a lot of people in the Sanders camp are threatening to do just that (or vote for Jill Stein / write-in Sanders). Plus, Sanders has a decent number of typical Republican voters that I'm sure will switch back if Hillary is the nominee.
Throw Bloomberg into the mix who might steal away some moderates as well, and it all gets very gloomy. I fear for this country, I really do.
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On February 23 2016 03:25 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:56 puerk wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 23 2016 02:48 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2016 02:44 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:40 xDaunt wrote:On February 23 2016 02:34 kwizach wrote:On February 23 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:
The difference between Trump's unfavorables and Hillary's unfavorables is that Hillary's are almost assuredly far more set in stone than Trump's. After years and years of public, political exposure, she's a known quantity. Trump isn't. More telling still, Hillary has the stigma of being a liar. Don't underestimate the impact of this. Do you want to make a bet with regards to the result of the general election if it comes to Clinton vs Trump? Many of the people who view her negatively basically know her through Republican propaganda. Her numbers will look far better in the general election once she's able to push her message forward and contrast it with Trump's. I'll probably agree to some kind of bet, but it's still early. Let's wait until just after the conventions. Why wait? We can already bet on the outcome in case it's Clinton vs Trump. If it's different candidates, the bet is void. Because a lot can happen over the next six months. I want more information. we have come a long way: On May 01 2011 18:27 xDaunt wrote:
Good. Hopefully people will stop taking Trump seriously now. On February 20 2016 02:47 xDaunt wrote:
I don't see Trump losing at this point. The birther issue was ridiculous, which is why I initially didn't think that he'd do well politically. But once I saw him jump out to a lead in July/August last year, I had to reassess. And no, I don't see Trump losing the republican nomination at this point.
Why are you declining a bet over the result of a Clinton vs Trump general election, then?
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On February 23 2016 03:27 Deathstar wrote:
Maybe a strong leader is just what we need to restore our democracy.
If anything, Obama has been a very strong leader. He has put up reforms that were needed for decades against a hateful, extremist and unbelievably determined opposition, such as the Obamacare, which is a major, major achievement. He has put up a financial reform that we in Europe could only dream of.
But of course, in modern politics saying you will "carpet bomb" people is synonym with "strong leadership". Macho bullshit is seen as "strong" while reasonable determination, rational behaviour, patience and wisdom is seen as weak stuff. It's better to boast about guns and tough shit like building walls and deporting millions of people if you want Joe Redneck to vote for you than provide, for example, a healthcare for every citizen. Who cares about healthcare when you can carpet bomb the shit out of the brown dudes and kick out those dirty mexicans.
Someone who spend his days insulting anyone, who says one sexist remark after a racist insult, who is so ridiculously megalomaniac and dishonest as Trump is not "strong".
I think Krugman is really right when he says we don't have a rational argument anymore. That's a very serious problem, the hysterization of politics and the fact that a major party has become so uninterested with what's actually going on and relies so much on fears, macho instinct and populist nonsenses.
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EPT
