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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On February 21 2016 12:22 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2016 12:12 cLutZ wrote: Cruz will read the landscape over the next few outings. If he gets 3rd consistently he will leave prior to the late March huge delegate States like California and Rubio is second choice for nearly 80% of his voters. Trump loses H2H against everyone left but Carson by 15+ points, so his hope lies in the field being fractured and Cruz/Rubio supporters not losing faith. Maybe you got something more recent but that's not how it was in January. Considering how the race has shook out I imagine that looks more like 50-50 between Rubio and Cruz SourceTrump does do poorly in head to heads though but everyone always reminds us, national polls don't matter yet. I don't know if there has been a similar poll for Cruz voters taken after Trump accused Cruz of cheating in Iowa?
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Cruz and Rubio will stay in. Trump will win, even though he loses head to head vs everyone.
Nice system.
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On February 21 2016 12:45 trulojucreathrma.com wrote: Cruz and Rubio will stay in. Trump will win, even though he loses head to head vs everyone.
Nice system. What's wrong with that? There's supposed to be a pool of candidates for the people to choose from, not just 2 (looking at Democrats right now), with no consideration given to people conducting unofficial surveys.
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your Country52797 Posts
On February 21 2016 12:11 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +PICK A CARD, ANY CARD
Hillary Clinton won one delegate in a tie precinct in Pahrump because her precinct captain won a card draw against Bernie Sanders’s.
The 30 voters in Precinct 10 at Morse Elementary School split even, 15 to 15. Per state Democratic Party rules, the precinct chairwoman, Peggy Rhoades, produced the sealed deck of cards she was provided to break the tie and award the fifth available delegate to the candidate with the high card.
Ms. Rhoades, a member of the Nye County Democratic Party’s central committee, removed the jokers from the deck. Representatives from the Clinton and Sanders campaign asked her to shuffle the cards three times, which she did, before spreading the 52 cards out across a table.
Mrs. Clinton’s representative went first: She pulled the ace. Mr. Sanders’s precinct captain couldn’t top that with his six of hearts. Show nested quote +N THE CARDS: You may have seen an earlier card draw used to break a tie, reported by Reid Epstein in Pahrump.
Over in Carson City, Chris Lawhead, a precinct captain for Bernie Sanders, tweeted video of a card draw used to break a tie in his precinct. Hillary Clinton won this one too, her side pulling a nine of clubs, beating the 7 of diamonds pulled by the Sanders side.[...] hehe This never stops to amuse me God damn it... the 7 of diamonds is my nemesis in cards and this is just making it worse.
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your Country52797 Posts
On February 21 2016 12:45 trulojucreathrma.com wrote: Cruz and Rubio will stay in. Trump will win, even though he loses head to head vs everyone.
Nice system. You'd think one of them would eventually drop out solely to prevent Trump from getting the nomination. Maybe it will happen if one gets a bad end of Super Tuesday.
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The bet between ticklishmusic and GreenHorizons was that the poster whose candidate lost both Nevada and SC would get banned from the site for one month, correct?
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your Country52797 Posts
On February 10 2016 11:58 ticklishmusic wrote: I hate to disrupt the circlejerk, but you so realize that Hillary is leading Nevada and South Carolina by 20 point margins... you can jigger that with turnout (which has been underestimated) and other things, but I'll take a month ban if Bernie wins both of them.
Don't remember if there was more. I'll check after I finish this game.
Edit:
On February 10 2016 12:32 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2016 12:23 ticklishmusic wrote:On February 10 2016 12:19 xDaunt wrote:On February 10 2016 11:58 ticklishmusic wrote: I hate to disrupt the circlejerk, but you so realize that Hillary is leading Nevada and South Carolina by 20 point margins... you can jigger that with turnout (which has been underestimated) and other things, but I'll take a month ban if Bernie wins both of them. Bernie needs to show that he can win some other states before I'd put money on him winning the nomination. And he is hilariously unelectable at a national level. One of our rare moments of agreement outside sports.  It's okay, we can be friends until the end of election season. Then we can go back to half-jokingly hostile. To everyone else: So how about a banbet? 1 month NV + SC if Hillary/Sanders win both (you know what I mean), if there's a split we'll sigbet-- I tell you something to add to yours, you add to mine for a month. Hmmmmm sure I'll take that. Worst case, a 1 month break from posting. I could probably do with that anyway ^.^
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United States19573 Posts
On February 21 2016 13:08 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2016 12:45 trulojucreathrma.com wrote: Cruz and Rubio will stay in. Trump will win, even though he loses head to head vs everyone.
Nice system. What's wrong with that? There's supposed to be a pool of candidates for the people to choose from, not just 2 (looking at Democrats right now), with no consideration given to people conducting unofficial surveys.
Because 65% will get a candidate they really don't like, because the collective action problem wherein that 65% splits between 3 other "first choices". Its why candidates like Bloomberg shouldn't actually run, because if they do get like 15% of the vote, all they are doing is increasing the probability that that 15% gets their least favorite choice. For instance, imagine Hillary wins the Dem nomination, Bloomberg runs, and Bernie feels cheated so he runs. Rubio wins Republicans, but Trump also feels cheated so he runs.
Then the breakdown is something like: 30% Hillary 35%Rubio 10%Trump 10%Bloomberg 15% Sanders
So Rubio wins, but, perhaps Bernie supporters prefer Hillary, and Trump/Bloomberg supporters are 50/50 (just the hypothetical). In a H2H Hillary wins 55%-45%, as she is the 2nd or 3rd choice of a majority of the losing candidates, but the existence of those candidates eventually made their constituents less happy in the end.
Updated 2nd choice stats: NBC
From the 3 primarys we should assume "Don't know" means "Not Trump" But its not nearly as bad for Trump as it was in the poll I saw earlier, but disappeared into twitter.
Edit: Which is why we should use automatic runoff for general elections. And probably the 2nd half of primary states.
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CLAIM: Supporters of Bernie Sanders shouted "English only" at civil rights activist Dolores Huerta during one Nevada caucus event, ostensibly objecting to a translation of remarks into Spanish.
FALSE
Source
So this is what the Hillary camp has come to. The reaction wasn't spectacular, but f**k off with the constant stream of misinformation. Not to mention the reaction to the reaction was just as fu**ed except it sets back minority and women issues while we're at it with everyone having to absorb the backlash from those who will use this as an excuse not to believe the real shit.
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United States42024 Posts
On February 21 2016 11:20 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2016 11:17 KwarK wrote: I read recently that American manufacturing has never been stronger and the problem in terms of employment is that it has been increasingly mechanized which ought to be fantastic news. If we were content with 1950s quality of life then we could just divide that bountiful productivity between the people, most of whom wouldn't have to go to work. The problem is too much success and technology in the face of an economic model that assumes employment is the only way in which a person can contribute for society.
At some point we're going to have to start redistributing wealth from the people who own the machines and paying people to be parents, community organisers and so forth. I recognise the problem but redistributing wealth is not the answer.Socialism does not work, Venezuela is the latest in a long line of disasters. One could equally conclude that because your posts are bad nobody should post.
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On February 21 2016 12:03 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2016 11:45 Danglars wrote:On February 21 2016 10:53 On_Slaught wrote:On February 21 2016 10:49 Danglars wrote:On February 21 2016 10:22 Nyxisto wrote:On February 21 2016 10:08 Deathstar wrote: Representative democracy is the best system we have. It consistently out-performs totalitarian governments like in China in the long-run. There's also no such thing as the average voter. Especially in a country that is as diverse in ideology. ethnicity, and culture as the US. that was before reality was determined by what's popular on twitter though this guy just won the SC primary That's a pretty bland tweet. Its subtext is the lengths Obama will bend over for the Muslim community and Muslim countries and his disdain or apathy towards citizens and allies. Both are well-accepted by Republican primary voters of nearly every stripe, save for Bush and Kasich supporters. Even Merkel in your country might raise the same level of pablum on her immigrant issue. Such willful ignirance. The obvious subtext is that Barack Hussein Obama is a Muslim, which is something the majority of his supporters no doubt believe. You dig the willful blind generalizations out of your hate. He wouldn't even get the muslim poll numbers if his policies and actions weren't so aligned with favorability. Let's get another speech on a terrorist attack focusing on the pre-post-attack backlash and condemning it! So take the ignorance of your own ignorance elsewhere. On February 21 2016 10:55 Nyxisto wrote:On February 21 2016 10:49 Danglars wrote:On February 21 2016 10:22 Nyxisto wrote:On February 21 2016 10:08 Deathstar wrote: Representative democracy is the best system we have. It consistently out-performs totalitarian governments like in China in the long-run. There's also no such thing as the average voter. Especially in a country that is as diverse in ideology. ethnicity, and culture as the US. that was before reality was determined by what's popular on twitter though https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/701084443889381377this guy just won the SC primary That's a pretty bland tweet. Its subtext is the lengths Obama will bend over for the Muslim community and Muslim countries and his disdain or apathy towards citizens and allies. Both are well-accepted by Republican primary voters of nearly every stripe, save for Bush and Kasich supporters. Even Merkel in your country might raise the same level of pablum on her immigrant issue. Sure there's 30% of people in whatever country willing to eat this stuff up and I have little idea about American primaries honestly so I don't know how much Trump's success until now actually means but it is utterly ridiculous how his persona continues to survive and is immune to criticism. It's a complete erosion of politics in regards to civility, reason and so on. It's like reality television. I get why you would generalize this to the overall persona, I really do. He's over the top and he's dedicated to anti-PC statements in all forms and subjects. Douglas Adams did a good series on the statement and others in (link) an article and (link) the series. Let me add some short comments on the "immune to criticism" and "civility & reason" parts. First, GOP supporters have seen much of the criticism of Trump to itself be overblown and unfounded. It started with immigration, how the TV news and columnists marginalized supporters of a border fence as the first step to comprehensive immigration reform. Now Trump emphatically states that view in yuuuge press conferences, relates its impact, covers sanctuary cities, and deservedly wins support. The predictable response of establishment figures in both parties is the exact same establishment mainstream view that got people riled up in the first place—so it's easily swept away. If there had been a vibrant debate on immigration with all positions considered, there would be no Trump or he'd have to try his luck on a new central issue. Disparage your sincerely held view for decades and see if you also don't give the first guy you hear supporting your viewpoint some leeway in criticism. Now, how about the charge that he's being uncivil and unreasonable. His supporters and the conservative base of the GOP have for some time now regarded Obama's deeply vindictive speeches as about as uncivil as it gets. He takes executive power to new levels, and presumes to lecture the other side about what idiots they are for calling it that. Talk about Muslim violence in the middle east and he'll bring up the crusades, an extreme level of religious conflation. On nearly every policy disagreement he straw-mans the opposition, whether he calls it based on racist or outgroup-based or inherently against American values. I know many readers are coming from an American liberal mindset, so you might agree with Obama on his stances. However, you haven't gone through 7 years of Obama trashing mainstream conservative values that you hold and showing outright contempt for state rights and the rule of law. He's an incredibly partisan politician and is responsible for his behavior towards his political opponents. I say the GOP base has grown tired of sincerely uncivil and unreasonable comments and actions from the current president and his administration (case can also be brought for the Bush attackers of yesteryear), dressed up in flowery language and condescending fortune-cookie aphorisms (RIP Scalia). The first guy to repeatedly fight back on a big podium with bombast ignites the reserves of indignation. Call it inciting incivility if you want. It's been going on for some time now. To cite a Germany example, just to reaffirm my conceptual basis, you think Merkel's administration would've received the same verbal disparagement had it not covered up the sex attacks that occured on new year's eve? To conclude, the left has fundamentally eroded the civil debate and the appeal to reason for long enough, and only now are receiving back the fruits of their labors. Yes sure you can probably give some blame to the 'establishment' in the US as well as in Europe to not listen to a certain part of their population, marginalizing them and so on and that's obviously where some of the backlash comes from including the stuff Merkel has had to endure, but Obama has never said or done anything that is even remotely comparable to the stuff he faces. Large parts of the Republican voterbase literally seem to believe that he is either a Muslim or not American, and that is 100% grounded in his biography as a black man with Hussein as a second name. If he would be John von Wienerschnitzel descending from German Protestants he wouldn't be facing these accusations. There ought to be some line where this stuff ends and politics begins. Yes Merkel get's a lot of those comments as well, but not from other politicians or candidates, but tone is getting more raw here as well. There is a certain part of the population that seems to be so intrinsically anti-pluralist and extremist that they can not participate in a democracy and the political system, and the political system as a whole has the job to signal that and not agitate them further. I think y'all are overblowing the Obama=Muslim and Obama's from Kenya minorities, and I'm honestly not sure if that's a psychological refuge from wishing your opponents were paranoid simpletons. If Mr. Whitey McWhite had done the same things Obama had to Iran & Israel & the Arab Spring, and given the same speeches about 2nd amendment gun rights and pre-post-terrorism backlash, he'd get the same people today viciously attacking him. I guarantee it. I disagree with your perspective, but hell, this is a forum I welcome disagreement.
I'd even say the modern Democratic party is very insular and extremist. The GOP establishment is equal or next in line on the former. With the political debate shifted left, the overton window shifted left, the word extremist means less and less as widely applied. I'd reserve it for those wanting to abolish the federal reserve and privatize the army. Trump's pronouncements on punitive tariffs certainly are just that. But sane immigration policy, a return to limited government and budgeting a social safety net within our means, social policy reserved for the people's representatives and not the courts—these ought to be the center-right or right in politics. The marginalization of right-wing ideas and the advancement of social justice norms have done greater damage, and as you say, ought to end where politics begins.
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On February 21 2016 13:54 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2016 12:03 Nyxisto wrote:On February 21 2016 11:45 Danglars wrote:On February 21 2016 10:53 On_Slaught wrote:On February 21 2016 10:49 Danglars wrote:On February 21 2016 10:22 Nyxisto wrote:On February 21 2016 10:08 Deathstar wrote: Representative democracy is the best system we have. It consistently out-performs totalitarian governments like in China in the long-run. There's also no such thing as the average voter. Especially in a country that is as diverse in ideology. ethnicity, and culture as the US. that was before reality was determined by what's popular on twitter though https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/701084443889381377this guy just won the SC primary That's a pretty bland tweet. Its subtext is the lengths Obama will bend over for the Muslim community and Muslim countries and his disdain or apathy towards citizens and allies. Both are well-accepted by Republican primary voters of nearly every stripe, save for Bush and Kasich supporters. Even Merkel in your country might raise the same level of pablum on her immigrant issue. Such willful ignirance. The obvious subtext is that Barack Hussein Obama is a Muslim, which is something the majority of his supporters no doubt believe. You dig the willful blind generalizations out of your hate. He wouldn't even get the muslim poll numbers if his policies and actions weren't so aligned with favorability. Let's get another speech on a terrorist attack focusing on the pre-post-attack backlash and condemning it! So take the ignorance of your own ignorance elsewhere. On February 21 2016 10:55 Nyxisto wrote:On February 21 2016 10:49 Danglars wrote:On February 21 2016 10:22 Nyxisto wrote:On February 21 2016 10:08 Deathstar wrote: Representative democracy is the best system we have. It consistently out-performs totalitarian governments like in China in the long-run. There's also no such thing as the average voter. Especially in a country that is as diverse in ideology. ethnicity, and culture as the US. that was before reality was determined by what's popular on twitter though https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/701084443889381377this guy just won the SC primary That's a pretty bland tweet. Its subtext is the lengths Obama will bend over for the Muslim community and Muslim countries and his disdain or apathy towards citizens and allies. Both are well-accepted by Republican primary voters of nearly every stripe, save for Bush and Kasich supporters. Even Merkel in your country might raise the same level of pablum on her immigrant issue. Sure there's 30% of people in whatever country willing to eat this stuff up and I have little idea about American primaries honestly so I don't know how much Trump's success until now actually means but it is utterly ridiculous how his persona continues to survive and is immune to criticism. It's a complete erosion of politics in regards to civility, reason and so on. It's like reality television. I get why you would generalize this to the overall persona, I really do. He's over the top and he's dedicated to anti-PC statements in all forms and subjects. Douglas Adams did a good series on the statement and others in (link) an article and (link) the series. Let me add some short comments on the "immune to criticism" and "civility & reason" parts. First, GOP supporters have seen much of the criticism of Trump to itself be overblown and unfounded. It started with immigration, how the TV news and columnists marginalized supporters of a border fence as the first step to comprehensive immigration reform. Now Trump emphatically states that view in yuuuge press conferences, relates its impact, covers sanctuary cities, and deservedly wins support. The predictable response of establishment figures in both parties is the exact same establishment mainstream view that got people riled up in the first place—so it's easily swept away. If there had been a vibrant debate on immigration with all positions considered, there would be no Trump or he'd have to try his luck on a new central issue. Disparage your sincerely held view for decades and see if you also don't give the first guy you hear supporting your viewpoint some leeway in criticism. Now, how about the charge that he's being uncivil and unreasonable. His supporters and the conservative base of the GOP have for some time now regarded Obama's deeply vindictive speeches as about as uncivil as it gets. He takes executive power to new levels, and presumes to lecture the other side about what idiots they are for calling it that. Talk about Muslim violence in the middle east and he'll bring up the crusades, an extreme level of religious conflation. On nearly every policy disagreement he straw-mans the opposition, whether he calls it based on racist or outgroup-based or inherently against American values. I know many readers are coming from an American liberal mindset, so you might agree with Obama on his stances. However, you haven't gone through 7 years of Obama trashing mainstream conservative values that you hold and showing outright contempt for state rights and the rule of law. He's an incredibly partisan politician and is responsible for his behavior towards his political opponents. I say the GOP base has grown tired of sincerely uncivil and unreasonable comments and actions from the current president and his administration (case can also be brought for the Bush attackers of yesteryear), dressed up in flowery language and condescending fortune-cookie aphorisms (RIP Scalia). The first guy to repeatedly fight back on a big podium with bombast ignites the reserves of indignation. Call it inciting incivility if you want. It's been going on for some time now. To cite a Germany example, just to reaffirm my conceptual basis, you think Merkel's administration would've received the same verbal disparagement had it not covered up the sex attacks that occured on new year's eve? To conclude, the left has fundamentally eroded the civil debate and the appeal to reason for long enough, and only now are receiving back the fruits of their labors. Yes sure you can probably give some blame to the 'establishment' in the US as well as in Europe to not listen to a certain part of their population, marginalizing them and so on and that's obviously where some of the backlash comes from including the stuff Merkel has had to endure, but Obama has never said or done anything that is even remotely comparable to the stuff he faces. Large parts of the Republican voterbase literally seem to believe that he is either a Muslim or not American, and that is 100% grounded in his biography as a black man with Hussein as a second name. If he would be John von Wienerschnitzel descending from German Protestants he wouldn't be facing these accusations. There ought to be some line where this stuff ends and politics begins. Yes Merkel get's a lot of those comments as well, but not from other politicians or candidates, but tone is getting more raw here as well. There is a certain part of the population that seems to be so intrinsically anti-pluralist and extremist that they can not participate in a democracy and the political system, and the political system as a whole has the job to signal that and not agitate them further. I think y'all are overblowing the Obama=Muslim and Obama's from Kenya minorities, and I'm honestly not sure if that's a psychological refuge from wishing your opponents were paranoid simpletons. If Mr. Whitey McWhite had done the same things Obama had to Iran & Israel & the Arab Spring, and given the same speeches about 2nd amendment gun rights and pre-post-terrorism backlash, he'd get the same people today viciously attacking him. I guarantee it. I disagree with your perspective, but hell, this is a forum I welcome disagreement. I'd even say the modern Democratic party is very insular and extremist. The GOP establishment is equal or next in line on the former. With the political debate shifted left, the overton window shifted left, the word extremist means less and less as widely applied. I'd reserve it for those wanting to abolish the federal reserve and privatize the army. Trump's pronouncements on punitive tariffs certainly are just that. But sane immigration policy, a return to limited government and budgeting a social safety net within our means, social policy reserved for the people's representatives and not the courts—these ought to be the center-right or right in politics. The marginalization of right-wing ideas and the advancement of social justice norms have done greater damage, and as you say, ought to end where politics begins.
The overwhelming delegate leader for the Republican Presidential Primary race just said the following about the President:
I wonder if President Obama would have attended the funeral of Justice Scalia if it were held in a Mosque? Very sad that he did not go!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/701084443889381377
Any of your arguments about "I think y'all are overblowing the Obama=Muslim and Obama's from Kenya minorities, and I'm honestly not sure if that's a psychological refuge from wishing your opponents were paranoid simpletons." are utterly invalid. The Republican base has spoken and spoken clearly. They support guys who at least suggest President Obama is a Muslim.
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I don't think it's reasonable to hold up trump supporters as "the republican base".
At most they're a section of the republican base. A worryingly large one, but not the whole base by a long shot.
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On February 21 2016 14:05 Belisarius wrote: I don't think it's reasonable to hold up trump supporters as "the republican base".
At most they're a section of the republican base. A worryingly large one, but not the whole base by a long shot.
How about when he wins Nevada? How many more states does it take?
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As has been said several times in the last few pages, anyone who's not currently voting trump/cruz, even in the republican primaries, seems unlikely to switch to him. At best he represents the 30% he's currently getting plus maybe another 10%.
Because your electoral system is insane, that might actually be enough to get him the nomination, but it's misleading to hold him up as a figurehead for the party and its voters when more than half of them seem to want nothing to do with him.
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It actually surprises me that this nationalist stuff is working in the US. I think especially Trumps "we are losing" rhetoric is pretty interesting because I thought an important feature of American conservatism is that America never really can't lose because the American people can never go really wrong, which usually automatically disempowers political authorities. Trump seems to stress that there's a need to 'make' America great and that he's the right guy for the job which sounds pretty authoritarian for the American right.
I also don't think that he sounds a lot like he wants limited government at all, especially in regards to civil rights.
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Trump takes all 50 delegates.
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On February 21 2016 14:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Trump takes all 50 delegates.
Don't think any modern Republican has won after losing NH and SC, especially by so much. But this is a unique election so maybe Cruz and Rubio work something out. Will be interesting to see if they go after each other or whoever else is left or Trump.
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United States19573 Posts
On February 21 2016 14:10 Nyxisto wrote: It actually surprises me that this nationalist stuff is working in the US. I think especially Trumps "we are losing" rhetoric is pretty interesting because I thought an important feature of American conservatism is that America never really can't lose because the American people can never go really wrong, which usually automatically disempowers political authorities. Trump seems to stress that there's a need to 'make' America great and that he's the right guy for the job which sounds pretty authoritarian for the American right.
I also don't think that he sounds a lot like he wants limited government at all, especially in regards to civil rights.
I don't think its surprising that as America's Federal Government starts to look more like a European government in its format (more redistribution, more powerful administrative agencies) that our politics starts to look more like European politics. I think a lot of his supporters are ones who say, "All these powers have been used to take money from us and give it to XX, we should have a strongman just redistribute it all back."
When you look at Trump, he uses much of the same general ideas that an Obama or a Bernie does, (the 1%, money in politics, needing to use executive action to get things done) and just comes to a massively different set of prescriptions. Plus he has a yuugely different rhetorical style.
Edit. Also, I think you are misunderstanding him a bit. He is saying the American people didn't go wrong, the "leaders" and politicians did. And he says, don't blame yourself you had no choice because your choice was between "loses every deal" Obama and "crappy soldier who got captured" McCain.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
I honestly do see Rubio's gaffe coming back to undermine him in the long term. It's something that constantly comes up about him now - Christie really undermined his credibility by calling out his repetitiveness.
I see Trump and Cruz holding on to the lead for the foreseeable future and the establishment getting the short end of the stick.
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