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On August 04 2015 14:16 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +Law enforcement officials from the Washington area and across the country said Monday that there has been a recent increase in shootings in several major cities but that they haven’t pinpointed what’s causing the spike in violence.
Officials from several cities, including the District, St. Louis, Chicago and Baltimore, met at the Newseum in the District to discuss the trend and possible solutions to the violence. They were joined by criminology professors, attorneys and others.
“We had this meeting as an urgent summit because we felt a sense of urgency because people are dying,” D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said at a news conference after the summit. “We have not seen what we’re seeing right now in decades.” ... SourceThis has to be a joke, right? Tiny sample size plus totally ignoring the shift in police-civilian dynamics from this time last year?
The reason why people have been shooting each other more recently? It's hot. People love to shoot each other when it gets hot out. In Chicago, we've had a mild spring/summer until very recently. It recently got hot, more people got shot.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/3xQ5zQj.jpg)
Here's a graph I put together. All data from 2015 in Chicago. The red line is the number of shootings as a % of the maximum month within the sample (322 people got shot in May, the max, so that's 100%. The 289 shot in June equals 90% of May's number). The blue line is the average maximum daily temperature for each month, once again represented as a % of the hottest month (July).
Notice a similarity? I know it's a completely terrible sample size, but I'm almost blown away by how closely those lines trended. Maybe it was just a lucky set of data, but the correlation isn't just my theory. It's been something stated many times and when I ran the data for this year, you can see the results.
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On August 04 2015 15:09 RenSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2015 14:16 cLutZ wrote:Law enforcement officials from the Washington area and across the country said Monday that there has been a recent increase in shootings in several major cities but that they haven’t pinpointed what’s causing the spike in violence.
Officials from several cities, including the District, St. Louis, Chicago and Baltimore, met at the Newseum in the District to discuss the trend and possible solutions to the violence. They were joined by criminology professors, attorneys and others.
“We had this meeting as an urgent summit because we felt a sense of urgency because people are dying,” D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said at a news conference after the summit. “We have not seen what we’re seeing right now in decades.” ... SourceThis has to be a joke, right? Tiny sample size plus totally ignoring the shift in police-civilian dynamics from this time last year? The reason why people have been shooting each other more recently? It's hot. People love to shoot each other when it gets hot out. In Chicago, we've had a mild spring/summer until very recently. It recently got hot, more people got shot. Here's a graph I put together. All data from 2015 in Chicago. The red line is the number of shootings as a % of the maximum month within the sample (322 people got shot in May, the max, so that's 100%. The 289 shot in June equals 90% of May's number). The blue line is the average maximum daily temperature for each month, once again represented as a % of the hottest month (July). Notice a similarity? I know it's a completely terrible sample size, but I'm almost blown away by how closely those lines trended. Maybe it was just a lucky set of data, but the correlation isn't just my theory. It's been something stated many times and when I ran the data for this year, you can see the results.
It's chicago. Plot anything increasing vs murder and they will roughly correlate.
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On August 04 2015 15:17 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2015 15:09 RenSC2 wrote:On August 04 2015 14:16 cLutZ wrote:Law enforcement officials from the Washington area and across the country said Monday that there has been a recent increase in shootings in several major cities but that they haven’t pinpointed what’s causing the spike in violence.
Officials from several cities, including the District, St. Louis, Chicago and Baltimore, met at the Newseum in the District to discuss the trend and possible solutions to the violence. They were joined by criminology professors, attorneys and others.
“We had this meeting as an urgent summit because we felt a sense of urgency because people are dying,” D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said at a news conference after the summit. “We have not seen what we’re seeing right now in decades.” ... SourceThis has to be a joke, right? Tiny sample size plus totally ignoring the shift in police-civilian dynamics from this time last year? The reason why people have been shooting each other more recently? It's hot. People love to shoot each other when it gets hot out. In Chicago, we've had a mild spring/summer until very recently. It recently got hot, more people got shot. Here's a graph I put together. All data from 2015 in Chicago. The red line is the number of shootings as a % of the maximum month within the sample (322 people got shot in May, the max, so that's 100%. The 289 shot in June equals 90% of May's number). The blue line is the average maximum daily temperature for each month, once again represented as a % of the hottest month (July). Notice a similarity? I know it's a completely terrible sample size, but I'm almost blown away by how closely those lines trended. Maybe it was just a lucky set of data, but the correlation isn't just my theory. It's been something stated many times and when I ran the data for this year, you can see the results. It's chicago. Plot anything increasing vs murder and they will roughly correlate.
Hah, sometimes it feels like that's true, but the stats don't match. Switching gears from shootings to homicides:
![[image loading]](http://heyjackass.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/yearly_homicide_trend.png)
Yearly homicide trend in Chicago. Kind of interesting that the violence really rose under Richard J Daley, and then really shrunk under Richard M Daley. Anyways, the number of homicides has remained reasonably flat since 2003. But as usual, it shrinks when it gets cold and grows when it gets hot (I'll let you delve into that data this time). If the Chicago politicians pass some sort of anti-crime bill this summer, expect them to be gloating about how well it worked sometime in January or February. Then watch as it all falls apart in June/July/August.
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On August 04 2015 15:09 RenSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2015 14:16 cLutZ wrote:Law enforcement officials from the Washington area and across the country said Monday that there has been a recent increase in shootings in several major cities but that they haven’t pinpointed what’s causing the spike in violence.
Officials from several cities, including the District, St. Louis, Chicago and Baltimore, met at the Newseum in the District to discuss the trend and possible solutions to the violence. They were joined by criminology professors, attorneys and others.
“We had this meeting as an urgent summit because we felt a sense of urgency because people are dying,” D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said at a news conference after the summit. “We have not seen what we’re seeing right now in decades.” ... SourceThis has to be a joke, right? Tiny sample size plus totally ignoring the shift in police-civilian dynamics from this time last year? The reason why people have been shooting each other more recently? It's hot. People love to shoot each other when it gets hot out. In Chicago, we've had a mild spring/summer until very recently. It recently got hot, more people got shot. Here's a graph I put together. All data from 2015 in Chicago. The red line is the number of shootings as a % of the maximum month within the sample (322 people got shot in May, the max, so that's 100%. The 289 shot in June equals 90% of May's number). The blue line is the average maximum daily temperature for each month, once again represented as a % of the hottest month (July). Notice a similarity? I know it's a completely terrible sample size, but I'm almost blown away by how closely those lines trended. Maybe it was just a lucky set of data, but the correlation isn't just my theory. It's been something stated many times and when I ran the data for this year, you can see the results.
I'm curious how the trend looks if you snapshot 5 years of data. As you said, the sample size is small, and the correlation could just be a coincidence.
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Iirc its proven that warm temperature (when not used to it) makes people more prone to stress and agression. So this coorrelation is really nothing special and can probably be applied just about everywhere.
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On August 04 2015 22:06 Velr wrote:
Iirc its proven that warm temperatures (when not used to it) makes people more prone to stress and agression. So this coorrelation is really nothing special and can probably be applied just about everywhere.
I pray thee, good Mercutio, let's retire.
The day is hot, the Capulets abroad.
And if we meet, we shall not scape a brawl,
For now, these hot days, is the mad blood stirring.
Shakespeare knew it.
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On August 04 2015 22:06 Velr wrote:
Iirc its proven that warm temperatures (when not used to it) makes people more prone to stress and agression. So this coorrelation is really nothing special and can probably be applied just about everywhere.
Cool. Logically it makes sense, I just didn't want to take questionable stats blindly as truth =P
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On August 04 2015 22:16 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2015 22:06 Velr wrote:
Iirc its proven that warm temperatures (when not used to it) makes people more prone to stress and agression. So this coorrelation is really nothing special and can probably be applied just about everywhere. Cool. Logically it makes sense, I just didn't want to take questionable stats blindly as truth =P
I can’t remember it right now since I studied it like 10-15 years ago, but there is a specific temperature where crime violent crimes are more likely to happen. It’s not just specific to gun related crime. As far as I know, police departments increase the number of officers on duty during sustained heat waves. That might have changed, but I doubt it. And above that temperature they drop dramatically, likely due to it being too hot to do anything.
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— Most of America's Republicans disapprove of the way Fox News is selecting candidates for the first GOP primary debate. They also find its qualifying criteria of who is in the top 10 in a series of national polls highly subjective and arbitrary, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.
The 10 debaters will be selected by Fox based on its average of the five most recent national polls as recognized by the network as of Tuesday at 5 pm Eastern time. However, because Fox will not disclose exactly which national surveys will be used in deciding who will make the cut, two-thirds of the eligible GOP field hangs in a state of uncertainty.
For example, if Fox used the Monmouth poll, which carries a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points, only five candidates would definitely qualify: Businessman Donald Trump (26 percent), former Gov. Bush of Florida (12.2 percent), Wisconsin Gov. Walker (11.1 percent), U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (6 percent), and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (5.7 percent).
But poll results for the next 10 candidates overlap when this margin of error is considered, making it unclear who is truly in the top 10, according to Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
For example, Gov. Chris Christie and U.S. Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida each have 4 percent, and are tied for seventh place; factoring the margin of error, they could all be as high as fourth place or well outside the top 10.
Only two candidates — former Govs. George Pataki of New York and Jim Gilmore of Virginia — would not make it into the top 10 even when margin of error is taken into account in the Monmouth Poll, Murray said.
Source
As for the heat and shootings it's a pretty simple connection.
When it's hot people are outside. When a bunch of rivals are outside (exposed) it's the most practical time to go after them. They are lightly clothed (no vest or .22/.380 resistant clothing), which also makes them easier to ID.
Also more gatherings and such. Not to mention people get irritable in uncomfortable heat.
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It is not only the being outside though. Heat on its own correlates with more aggressive behaviour, even in lab studies.
It is hard to prove, but there appears to be a causal relation between heat and aggression.
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It can go both ways with temperature actually. It's just about feeling uncomfortable (duh) until you're irritated/exasperated iirc
As long as it's only annoyingly cold and not cold enough to actually hurt/kill you.
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There's also a correlation between heat and students being out for summer, and not being in school is a huge determinant of gang activity/crime.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
read some more trump quotes and i am now rooting for him for the republican nomination.
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On August 05 2015 00:18 oneofthem wrote:
read some more trump quotes and i am now rooting for him for the republican nomination.
I honestly don't see how he's going to lose.
He's even pulling support away from Walker. It's going to end up coming down to Trump, Walker, Bush. Bush's support isn't going anywhere and Walker isn't getting much traction at all.
Republicans keep talking about how Trump's lack of substance will hurt him, I don't think they've been paying attention to his supporters.
Trump's numbers just keep going up as he consolidates the anti-establishment vote.As people drop out Trump will get the lion's share. The wildcard is Carson, when he drops out that's going to be an important ~10%
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What I'm really interested in is the debate on Thursday. Partially because it should be a spectacle, partially because, as an independent, I want to at least try to listen to what the people on stage have to say, and partially because I'm curious how the Debate Contestant Fox-o-matic ends up.
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On August 04 2015 15:09 RenSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2015 14:16 cLutZ wrote:Law enforcement officials from the Washington area and across the country said Monday that there has been a recent increase in shootings in several major cities but that they haven’t pinpointed what’s causing the spike in violence.
Officials from several cities, including the District, St. Louis, Chicago and Baltimore, met at the Newseum in the District to discuss the trend and possible solutions to the violence. They were joined by criminology professors, attorneys and others.
“We had this meeting as an urgent summit because we felt a sense of urgency because people are dying,” D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said at a news conference after the summit. “We have not seen what we’re seeing right now in decades.” ... SourceThis has to be a joke, right? Tiny sample size plus totally ignoring the shift in police-civilian dynamics from this time last year? The reason why people have been shooting each other more recently? It's hot. People love to shoot each other when it gets hot out. In Chicago, we've had a mild spring/summer until very recently. It recently got hot, more people got shot. Here's a graph I put together. All data from 2015 in Chicago. The red line is the number of shootings as a % of the maximum month within the sample (322 people got shot in May, the max, so that's 100%. The 289 shot in June equals 90% of May's number). The blue line is the average maximum daily temperature for each month, once again represented as a % of the hottest month (July). Notice a similarity? I know it's a completely terrible sample size, but I'm almost blown away by how closely those lines trended. Maybe it was just a lucky set of data, but the correlation isn't just my theory. It's been something stated many times and when I ran the data for this year, you can see the results.
Mostly irrelevant, its a rise year over year from 2014.
The 2 most plausible explanations are statistical anomaly and the shifting police-citizenry dynamic caused by Freddy Grey/etc.
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United States44190 Posts
The temperature line is pretty arbitrary. Obviously shootings you have 100% of max set at whatever the highest number was and 0% being no shootings at all but with temperature I doubt 0% is absolute zero. If they just use 0 celsius or whatever as zero then 50% max temperature will be a point halfway between the highest and a totally arbitrary point. I suspect whoever made the graph is aware of this and made it that way to show correlation closely.
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On August 05 2015 02:11 KwarK wrote:
The temperature line is pretty arbitrary. Obviously shootings you have 100% of max set at whatever the highest number was and 0% being no shootings at all but with temperature I doubt 0% is absolute zero. If they just use 0 celsius or whatever as zero then 50% max temperature will be a point halfway between the highest and a totally arbitrary point. I suspect whoever made the graph is aware of this and made it that way to show correlation closely.
There's some other things that don't jibe between the temperature and the shootings in that graph. We are talking about Chicago here. While there is research that shows that high temperatures are correlated with aggression, the difference there between January and February (probably between an average of -3 and -6 centigrade), is between freezing and FREEZING. Nobody is getting more aggressive when it is -3 outside as compared to -6..
TLDR: it's just way too neat.
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Also given the total amount of shooting victims in the US the country must basically be boiling.
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EPT
