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On February 23 2013 03:19 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2013 23:01 McBengt wrote:On February 22 2013 12:43 aksfjh wrote:On February 22 2013 12:31 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:President Obama is riding a huge surge in popularity in public opinion surveys among Hispanics, who are overwhelmingly excited about his second-term efforts to pass immigration reform.
Obama’s approval rating stands at 73 percent among Hispanics, a 25-point swing from his low of 48 percent in late 2011.
In particular, Obama enjoyed a major shift in support for his immigration policy. Some 63 percent of Hispanic respondents to a Pew Research/USA Today poll approved of Obama’s performance on the issue. In November 2011, only 28 percent approved of his work on immigration.
While Hispanic voters turned out in droves to elect Obama in November, many were upset over the record levels of deportations carried out by his administration. Obama’s inability to pass either comprehensive immigration reform or the DREAM Act, which would grant citizenship to young undocumented immigrants, over GOP opposition did not help his standing either — even as it hurt Republicans far more.
Led by senators like John McCain (R-AZ) and Marco Rubio (R-FL), Republicans are now trying to craft a bipartisan immigration deal that they hope will boost their standing with the community. But they’re starting from an exceptionally weak position: Hispanic respondents told Pew they favor Obama’s approach to immigration over the GOP’s by a whopping 73-15 margin.
Obama’s relative popularity could complicate Rubio’s recent attacks on the administration for drafting its own immigration plan, which he called “dead on arrival” in Congress and warned would inflame Republican opinion against reform. Source I wonder how much of that Democratic (Obama) support is simply due to how transparent Republican efforts are. I mean, if Rubio has to wave Obama off with a statement that essentially boils down to, "Shhhh, you might spook the other Republicans!" certainly, that filters down to parts of the population. At every turn, Republicans have pushed heavy on deportation and border security, and vilified any attempt to provide assistance to even the most exemplary of undocumented/illegal immigrants. Any push for immigration reform now seems like a move made out of political calculation instead of moral obligation. Watching the town hall meeting with McCain was somewhat depressing. I have no idea how a compromise can ever be reached that actually accomplishes a path to citizenship when you have to pander to these kind of people. It's essentially a terminal catch 22, you have to cater to your base, but the base is no longer enough to win elections, and trying to appease it pushes you further away from moderate centrist voters that you need to win. + Show Spoiler +http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pptYEgREnNU Some snippets from the meeting. Even though I disagree with McCain on just about everything, I have to give him respect for standing by his principles, even when it creates confrontations with his own voter base. Part of the problem is that the longer it takes for immigration reform the more people are going to get mad like in the video. It's not just about ideology here, states like Arizona have taken the brunt of the pain caused by illegal immigration. Until the problem is fixed (by whatever means) they have a right to be pissed.
Most of these people that are mad use those costs to justify an anger that exists about immigration. The longer it takes, the longer our broken media will tarnish the debate.
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I feel like there's probably not any way to fix immigration without fixing mexico
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Man, this thread on US politics can get pretty heavy and deep quick. I felt like I was understanding some tips of icebergs  Pretty cool.
Here's my useless contribution: Air castles sound pretty cool. Maybe some pet swans, white or black. And we can trade coconuts even though I still haven't figured out why we're trading them. 
Edit: I knew I had something useful to say. I was listening to a program on NPR talking about the reformed healthcare in Oregon with Community Care workers. I can't find an article on it yet to link but it sounded good. If there's one thing that bothers me, its healthcare costs. A bit like finance and sami. Probably right up his alley too
http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2013/02/22/oregon-health-reform got it.
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On February 23 2013 05:07 mordek wrote:And we can trade coconuts even though I still haven't figured out why we're trading them.
comparative advantage DUH
edit: (the reason I make jokes about coconuts is that anytime I start talking about negative aggregate effects of free markets, somebody starts telling me a parable about people on islands trading things and gaining a net advantage. I blame David Ricardo. Political economists should be banned from ever thinking about islands, it's very embarrassing. As Marx points out, they seem to LOVE robinson crusoe)
edit: (they think the islands matter because they don't understand about the macro->micro reduction fallacy)
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Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 23 2013 03:57 sam!zdat wrote:
I feel like there's probably not any way to fix immigration without fixing mexico
that's an aspect of the in-flow problem, but the other problem of 'assimilation' requires real improvements in education and legalizing work. there is no reason to imagine mexico as a third world village that must be separated from the life of the U.S., when the geography is so close.
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On February 23 2013 05:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party.
I'm sure those years after the republicans used the southern strategy to win 49 states cycle after cycle they were questioning the democrats long term survival. A Democratic victory of less then one percent of the nations population is nothing near that. George Bush did well with the Hispanic vote and I'm sure that the cast of candidates for 2016 is worlds ahead then the one they had for 2012.
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There are still too many crazies and the Tea Party raging a war on a social policy, and fiscal front within and outside the Government is not helping Republicans in the view of a moderate population(majority of Americans). Then there's Ted Cruz and who actually thinks he will be quiet come election time.
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On February 23 2013 07:00 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2013 05:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party. I'm sure those years after the republicans used the southern strategy to win 49 states cycle after cycle they were questioning the democrats long term survival. A Democratic victory of less then one percent of the nations population is nothing near that. George Bush did well with the Hispanic vote and I'm sure that the cast of candidates for 2016 is worlds ahead then the one they had for 2012.
It's more about demographic trends than current numbers. The republican base is shrinking, the democratic base is growing. The GOP likely has to reevaluate certain hardline policies, specifically conservative social policies that are turning away young voters in droves, which basically makes the future electorate toxic for them for a long time to come.
Edit: Of course, cretins like Murdoch/Akin/Cruz/Bachman etc don't exactly help. Add a host of conservative media personalities who don't really have any interest in winning elections, just attracting more viewers/listeners, and it amounts to a swampland of intransigent belligerence that appeals to the hardcore base, but drives almost everyone else away.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
education being the reproduction of society, grown up politics is in some way a reflection of the sad state of basic social and history education in the U.S.
http://video.pbs.org/video/2325563509/
this seems to focus on religion in education, which is important, but the part about ignoring race and social education is even more important in the grand scheme of things.
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it's all about education. Democracy like everything else. Garbage in garbage out. And new media is the medium of garbage.
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On February 23 2013 07:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
There are still too many crazies and the Tea Party raging a war on a social policy, and fiscal front within and outside the Government is not helping Republicans in the view of a moderate population(majority of Americans). Then there's Ted Cruz and who actually thinks he will be quiet come election time.
Every time somebody says Texas could be blue in the coming future, they need to look again at Ted Cruz.
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On February 23 2013 07:09 McBengt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2013 07:00 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 05:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party. I'm sure those years after the republicans used the southern strategy to win 49 states cycle after cycle they were questioning the democrats long term survival. A Democratic victory of less then one percent of the nations population is nothing near that. George Bush did well with the Hispanic vote and I'm sure that the cast of candidates for 2016 is worlds ahead then the one they had for 2012. It's more about demographic trends than current numbers. The republican base is shrinking, the democratic base is growing. The GOP likely has to reevaluate certain hardline policies, specifically conservative social policies that are turning away young voters in droves, which basically makes the future electorate toxic for them for a long time to come. Edit: Of course, cretins like Murdoch/Akin/Cruz/Bachman etc don't exactly help. Add a host of conservative media personalities who don't really have any interest in winning elections, just attracting more viewers/listeners, and it amounts to a swampland of intransigent belligerence that appeals to the hardcore base, but drives almost everyone else away.
Conservative policies always push away the younger voters and interest the older voters more. Its the same in every country and there isn't a way for conservatives to out liberal liberals so there really isn't a reason for republicans to change their tune on social policies. It was the same story 20 years ago as it was the same 40 years ago.
No one seriously thinks that the tea party or fox news is helping these days. The left was lucky enough for OWS to die a quiet slow charitable death to attract its crazies and leftist media is now considered to be normal media and not even remotely activist. I agree I don't know what the way forward is and I hope someone above my paygrade knows.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
the texas board of education has got your back, young warrior of the right.
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On February 23 2013 07:37 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2013 07:09 McBengt wrote:On February 23 2013 07:00 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 05:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party. I'm sure those years after the republicans used the southern strategy to win 49 states cycle after cycle they were questioning the democrats long term survival. A Democratic victory of less then one percent of the nations population is nothing near that. George Bush did well with the Hispanic vote and I'm sure that the cast of candidates for 2016 is worlds ahead then the one they had for 2012. It's more about demographic trends than current numbers. The republican base is shrinking, the democratic base is growing. The GOP likely has to reevaluate certain hardline policies, specifically conservative social policies that are turning away young voters in droves, which basically makes the future electorate toxic for them for a long time to come. Edit: Of course, cretins like Murdoch/Akin/Cruz/Bachman etc don't exactly help. Add a host of conservative media personalities who don't really have any interest in winning elections, just attracting more viewers/listeners, and it amounts to a swampland of intransigent belligerence that appeals to the hardcore base, but drives almost everyone else away. Conservative policies always push away the younger voters and interest the older voters more. Its the same in every country and there isn't a way for conservatives to out liberal liberals so there really isn't a reason for republicans to change their tune on social policies. It was the same story 20 years ago as it was the same 40 years ago. No one seriously thinks that the tea party or fox news is helping these days. The left was lucky enough for OWS to die a quiet slow charitable death to attract its crazies and leftist media is now considered to be normal media and not even remotely activist. I agree I don't know what the way forward is and I hope someone above my paygrade knows.
The problem as I see is that I really don't think the current generation or the next are going to become more socially conservative as they age. Views on things like gay rights, women's health/right to choose, immigration etc are very likely moving in one direction, and if the GOP will not change at least to a moderate position, eventually they will be left with policies that are considered so extreme few swing voters will take them seriously.
Case in point, someone like Perry and Santorum, while certainly attractive to a specific part of the electorate, are in all probability never going to be president of the US again.
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Mr McCarthy is that you?
Senator Ted Cruz claims to have a list of communists among Harvard professors, in a move that seems to be strait out of the play book of another nutty senator.
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Why Men Are More Likely to Drop Out
As student debt levels continue to rise, more college students are facing a critical decision: Borrow more or drop out? Men and women appear to be reaching different conclusions. ...
That gender should affect student borrowing decisions might seem surprising, but the authors suggest there is a fairly simple explanation: Men without college degrees face better job prospects than equivalently educated women, at least in the short term. That makes the consequences of dropping out appear smaller for men.
Interesting... Link
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On February 23 2013 07:47 McBengt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2013 07:37 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 07:09 McBengt wrote:On February 23 2013 07:00 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 05:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party. I'm sure those years after the republicans used the southern strategy to win 49 states cycle after cycle they were questioning the democrats long term survival. A Democratic victory of less then one percent of the nations population is nothing near that. George Bush did well with the Hispanic vote and I'm sure that the cast of candidates for 2016 is worlds ahead then the one they had for 2012. It's more about demographic trends than current numbers. The republican base is shrinking, the democratic base is growing. The GOP likely has to reevaluate certain hardline policies, specifically conservative social policies that are turning away young voters in droves, which basically makes the future electorate toxic for them for a long time to come. Edit: Of course, cretins like Murdoch/Akin/Cruz/Bachman etc don't exactly help. Add a host of conservative media personalities who don't really have any interest in winning elections, just attracting more viewers/listeners, and it amounts to a swampland of intransigent belligerence that appeals to the hardcore base, but drives almost everyone else away. Conservative policies always push away the younger voters and interest the older voters more. Its the same in every country and there isn't a way for conservatives to out liberal liberals so there really isn't a reason for republicans to change their tune on social policies. It was the same story 20 years ago as it was the same 40 years ago. No one seriously thinks that the tea party or fox news is helping these days. The left was lucky enough for OWS to die a quiet slow charitable death to attract its crazies and leftist media is now considered to be normal media and not even remotely activist. I agree I don't know what the way forward is and I hope someone above my paygrade knows. The problem as I see is that I really don't think the current generation or the next are going to become more socially conservative as they age. Views on things like gay rights, women's health/right to choose, immigration etc are very likely moving in one direction, and if the GOP will not change at least to a moderate position, eventually they will be left with policies that are considered so extreme few swing voters will take them seriously. Case in point, someone like Perry and Santorum, while certainly attractive to a specific part of the electorate, are in all probability never going to be president of the US again.
Sure, but it will change. Just look at GOP senators / representatives from liberal areas. As the underlying population changes so do parties.
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On February 23 2013 07:47 McBengt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2013 07:37 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 07:09 McBengt wrote:On February 23 2013 07:00 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 05:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party. I'm sure those years after the republicans used the southern strategy to win 49 states cycle after cycle they were questioning the democrats long term survival. A Democratic victory of less then one percent of the nations population is nothing near that. George Bush did well with the Hispanic vote and I'm sure that the cast of candidates for 2016 is worlds ahead then the one they had for 2012. It's more about demographic trends than current numbers. The republican base is shrinking, the democratic base is growing. The GOP likely has to reevaluate certain hardline policies, specifically conservative social policies that are turning away young voters in droves, which basically makes the future electorate toxic for them for a long time to come. Edit: Of course, cretins like Murdoch/Akin/Cruz/Bachman etc don't exactly help. Add a host of conservative media personalities who don't really have any interest in winning elections, just attracting more viewers/listeners, and it amounts to a swampland of intransigent belligerence that appeals to the hardcore base, but drives almost everyone else away. Conservative policies always push away the younger voters and interest the older voters more. Its the same in every country and there isn't a way for conservatives to out liberal liberals so there really isn't a reason for republicans to change their tune on social policies. It was the same story 20 years ago as it was the same 40 years ago. No one seriously thinks that the tea party or fox news is helping these days. The left was lucky enough for OWS to die a quiet slow charitable death to attract its crazies and leftist media is now considered to be normal media and not even remotely activist. I agree I don't know what the way forward is and I hope someone above my paygrade knows. The problem as I see is that I really don't think the current generation or the next are going to become more socially conservative as they age. Views on things like gay rights, women's health/right to choose, immigration etc are very likely moving in one direction, and if the GOP will not change at least to a moderate position, eventually they will be left with policies that are considered so extreme few swing voters will take them seriously. Case in point, someone like Perry and Santorum, while certainly attractive to a specific part of the electorate, are in all probability never going to be president of the US again.
No one thinks they become more socially conservative as they age but they always do. Yeah abortion, separation of church and state, and immigration are always going to follow that mantrum of "the more they change the more they stay the same". the Idea that Conservative politics are dead and there is now only moderate and liberal policies is the dumbest shit I've ever read. There will always be a party pulling things to the right and another pulling them to the left. The idea that they shift one direction over the years to another is just the way politics exist. Conservatism exists in Sweden as much as it exists in America. Liberalism exists as much in south Korea as much as it exists in Germany.
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On February 23 2013 08:12 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2013 07:47 McBengt wrote:On February 23 2013 07:37 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 07:09 McBengt wrote:On February 23 2013 07:00 Sermokala wrote:On February 23 2013 05:28 Mohdoo wrote:
Republicans seem to be trying their best to boost their chances of a white house 4 years from now with Hispanics. Obama is currently dominating that front. I'm really questioning the long term survival of the Republican party. I'm sure those years after the republicans used the southern strategy to win 49 states cycle after cycle they were questioning the democrats long term survival. A Democratic victory of less then one percent of the nations population is nothing near that. George Bush did well with the Hispanic vote and I'm sure that the cast of candidates for 2016 is worlds ahead then the one they had for 2012. It's more about demographic trends than current numbers. The republican base is shrinking, the democratic base is growing. The GOP likely has to reevaluate certain hardline policies, specifically conservative social policies that are turning away young voters in droves, which basically makes the future electorate toxic for them for a long time to come. Edit: Of course, cretins like Murdoch/Akin/Cruz/Bachman etc don't exactly help. Add a host of conservative media personalities who don't really have any interest in winning elections, just attracting more viewers/listeners, and it amounts to a swampland of intransigent belligerence that appeals to the hardcore base, but drives almost everyone else away. Conservative policies always push away the younger voters and interest the older voters more. Its the same in every country and there isn't a way for conservatives to out liberal liberals so there really isn't a reason for republicans to change their tune on social policies. It was the same story 20 years ago as it was the same 40 years ago. No one seriously thinks that the tea party or fox news is helping these days. The left was lucky enough for OWS to die a quiet slow charitable death to attract its crazies and leftist media is now considered to be normal media and not even remotely activist. I agree I don't know what the way forward is and I hope someone above my paygrade knows. The problem as I see is that I really don't think the current generation or the next are going to become more socially conservative as they age. Views on things like gay rights, women's health/right to choose, immigration etc are very likely moving in one direction, and if the GOP will not change at least to a moderate position, eventually they will be left with policies that are considered so extreme few swing voters will take them seriously. Case in point, someone like Perry and Santorum, while certainly attractive to a specific part of the electorate, are in all probability never going to be president of the US again. Sure, but it will change. Just look at GOP senators / representatives from liberal areas. As the underlying population changes so do parties.
I have no doubt republicans from more metropolitan areas will eventually evolve with the country as a whole, or perhaps as a majority is a better term, someone like Chris Christie.
I'm just not sure the more violently anti-liberal wing of the party will let them. It's basically impossible to win the party endorsement without the hardcore christian right, and now also the Tea Party approval. The insular rural areas that still maintain this uncompromising stance are fundamentally different from urban NY or LA, and unlikely to endorse any candidate who does not conform to the ever more suffocating straitjacket that is the "pure" conservative ideology. It may be that there will have be a serious housecleaning at some point, a reckoning with the elements of the party that are shackling more progressive candidates to policies they don't like and can't win with.
No one thinks they become more socially conservative as they age but they always do. Yeah abortion, separation of church and state, and immigration are always going to follow that mantrum of "the more they change the more they stay the same". the Idea that Conservative politics are dead and there is now only moderate and liberal policies is the dumbest shit I've ever read. There will always be a party pulling things to the right and another pulling them to the left. The idea that they shift one direction over the years to another is just the way politics exist. Conservatism exists in Sweden as much as it exists in America. Liberalism exists as much in south Korea as much as it exists in Germany.
Societies change though. They really do. Sweden today compared to just 25-30 years ago is a fundamentally different place when it comes to many social issues, go back 50 years and it might as well be another country. No serious politician here today can publically hold views that would have been considered fairly standard conservative ideology a few decades ago without effectively committing political suicide. I'm reasonable sure this applies to the US as well.
You are right that there will always be parties pulling in both directions. I think that the scale itself will move inexorably left over the next years in the US, leaving less and less space for more extreme conservative policies. I may be wrong. I hope we can just agree to disagree if you think otherwise.
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EPT
