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[ASL20] Ro16 Group D - Page 11

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iopq
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States1013 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-09-19 06:38:58
September 19 2025 06:32 GMT
#201
On September 18 2025 19:43 TMNT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2025 14:40 iopq wrote:
On September 16 2025 23:27 M2 wrote:
On September 16 2025 23:21 LightSpectra wrote:
On September 16 2025 23:05 TMNT wrote:
Expect some heated debates here next weeks since we have 3 PvZ series lol.



"90% of PvZ games being a hydra bust or cannon/zealot rush fucking sucks" is what we should be talking about

What should we talk about it? Its the only all in strat in the whole game which does not hurt the aggressor when it does not work.


What are you talking about? Going all-in muta vs. Terran usually doesn't hurt the Zerg at all, when Terran recovers the Zerg just shrugs and makes a hydra den and queen's nest.

The same way a Protoss is FORCED into a bunch of cannons, the Terran is FORCED into a bunch of turrets even if the Zerg does nothing special with muta.

By the same token, just throwing zealots at the Zerg usually forces so many lings it pays for itself, even if you kill no drones. Just the lost mining time running them away from the third or natural and zergling losses from having to kill them behind minerals is already worth it.

This whole game is about pressuring your opponent while getting ahead behind it. Nobody plays NR 10 anymore

What are you talking about actually?

I feel like this is a super oversimplification of the game which is either not true or only applicable to low rank games.

How can going all in with Mutas vs Terran doesn't hurt the Zerg at all. That's a shocking statement. If you don't trade Mutas with MM/Turrets efficiently, one counter push and they stim past your Sunkens. If you do nothing with your Mutas, they lose value significantly once Irradiate is out.

The same dynamics can't be applied in 3H Hydra vs Protoss. Cannons are twice more expensive than Turrets. Terran doesn't have to delay Barracks or lose +1 upgrade for Turrets. If you do nothing with Hydras, they are still the mainstay of your army later.

Throwing Zealots at Zerg doesn't usually pay for itself. It's all about whether you can trade efficiently or not, i.e. if you can sneak a Zealot out undetected, or have better positioning/micro. Zergs at the top level don't overbuild Lings for the sake of it like a D ranker. You can find many games at pro level where Protoss is in deep shit later on if their first Zealots get caught without trading well.

In a way the Zealots vs Lings dynamics in early game PvZ is similar to the Mutas vs MM/Turrets dynamics in ZvT, i.e. you get the better trade, hence getting ahead, by having better skills than your opponent. You talked as if just by producing some Zealots/Mutas and send them across the map without achieving anything doesn't hurt the Protoss/Zerg.





If you try to attack with hydras and don't kill the protoss and you're still on 20 drones (made two more hatcheries while spending all the gas on hydra) you're dead

Just watch any SK game where he tries the all-in attack and protoss had enough not to die - even he can't macro out of it. If you don't ATTACK with the hydra and the Protoss made his +1 offset next to his cannons, that's not an "all-in" at all

So let's talk about two different scenarios:

1. Zerg makes 8-12 hydra and immediately drones and goes lair, never jumps on cannons and picks off only the gateway. This is just a bog standard pressure build hoping Protoss makes 7 cannons instead of like 3

2. Zerg makes 30+ hydra and attacks the Protoss cannons - if the Zerg fails to do any damage he's dead. If he trades well and Protoss has to sacrifice probes to live he's even, but he's really looking to kill the Protoss. This is not risk-free at all, it would be crazy to make 30+ hydra and not attack because they won't trade well against storm (you don't have muta sniping templars because you didn't get Lair quick)

There's a 1.5 scenario where the Zerg just wants Protoss to make more cannons and to kill the cannons protecting the +1 upgrade, but makes more like 20 hydra. But in this case it's based on micro and positioning, just like getting muta against Terran. If the Protoss loses +1 and has to rebuild cannons, it's a Zerg advantage, if the Zerg runs up into a bad engage with the cannons and doesn't get it anyway, it's Protoss advantaged.

In the same way, mass muta can trade well vs. turrets and the Zerg can build mass sunkens against the M&M pressure (like Soma did) or they can make lings and clean up the ball (Soulkey style)

at the top level, pros ALWAYS send zealots against Zerg
it's considered disadvantaged if you do not do it
TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
3091 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-09-19 08:46:04
September 19 2025 08:07 GMT
#202
On September 19 2025 15:32 iopq wrote:
If you try to attack with hydras and don't kill the protoss and you're still on 20 drones (made two more hatcheries while spending all the gas on hydra) you're dead

Just watch any SK game where he tries the all-in attack and protoss had enough not to die - even he can't macro out of it. If you don't ATTACK with the hydra and the Protoss made his +1 offset next to his cannons, that's not an "all-in" at all


I mean, yeah, you're dead if you jump on the cannons and don't kill or deal significant damage to Protoss. But the original statement of LightSpectra is technically incorrect (or he doesn't mean it that way) and certainly not what I mean.

The correct statement is "it's the only strat in the game with the potential to kill immediately but the aggressor still has the option to back off and transition to a macro game".

When you look at it that way, there's certainly no comparable strat. What are the other strats with potential to kill immediately: 4 pool, proxy 9 9, BBS, some variations of 2 Hatch play, some variations of DT rush, 2 Rax, 2 Fac, 3 Gate Goon on 1 base vs T... You can't do one of those builds and go "nah I'm not gonna commit to the all in I'm gonna match him with my macro now".

Muta all-in in ZvT is the equivalent of the 3HH version where you jump onto the cannons so you can't say Zerg is still fine with if the Muta all-in doesn't work. But regular Muta opening is not equal to the 3HH version where you back off, for reasons I've said before, plus the most important thing: Protoss doesn't know if Hydras are coming but Terran does know the Mutas are coming (i.e. the tools to survive are already in place for Terran).

And I mean, there's a reason that in 20+ years of this game, there's no such thing called a "Muta bust", nor have we seen Mutas killing Terran outright in the same frequency we've seen Hydras busting through a few cannons being warped in. Any attempt to draw similarities is ridiculous.

About the different scenarios you laid out. I don't want to go into details (like if Zerg makes x Hydras and Protoss makes y Cannons etc.) but there are for sure more than the 3 scenarios you described, depending on the dynamics of each game and how the early game goes as well. But what's most important is Zerg gets to dictate those scenarios i.e. they get to choose how many Hydras they make. If they sense not enough Cannons, they can go for the kill and if they don't feel like it's possible they can drone up. It's not like the other all-in builds I mentioned above that once you make the buildings, there's no return. You make the point about Hydras dying to storm. Well yeah, as if in 3H Spire into 5H Hydra they don't? Still better to have 30 Hydras to fight Zealots behind sim city and dodge storms using your skill, than have a bunch of stacked Mutas that Terran can render useless in one click.


iopq
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States1013 Posts
September 19 2025 08:45 GMT
#203
On September 19 2025 17:07 TMNT wrote:
The correct statement is "it's the only strat in the game with the potential to kill immediately but the aggressor still has the option to back off and transition to a macro game".


Making 20 muta vs. Terran is exactly like this, you can be very aggressive with it, or you can put on pressure and transition

A quick +1 corsair/zealot timing is also exactly like this, you can either kill the zerg or just supply block him so he can't drone after the attack

and don't tell me we don't see wins like this in the ASL
TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
3091 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-09-19 08:55:53
September 19 2025 08:51 GMT
#204
On September 19 2025 17:45 iopq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2025 17:07 TMNT wrote:
The correct statement is "it's the only strat in the game with the potential to kill immediately but the aggressor still has the option to back off and transition to a macro game".


Making 20 muta vs. Terran is exactly like this, you can be very aggressive with it, or you can put on pressure and transition

A quick +1 corsair/zealot timing is also exactly like this, you can either kill the zerg or just supply block him so he can't drone after the attack

and don't tell me we don't see wins like this in the ASL

If they are "exactly" like 3H Hydra, why don't we see more Terran/Zerg dying to "Muta bust" and "Zealot bust".

If you're using this logic, basically any build where you make units and attack fits the description.

Once again, it's super oversimplification.
mtcn77
Profile Joined September 2013
Turkey633 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-09-19 10:39:13
September 19 2025 10:26 GMT
#205
On September 19 2025 17:51 TMNT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2025 17:45 iopq wrote:
On September 19 2025 17:07 TMNT wrote:
The correct statement is "it's the only strat in the game with the potential to kill immediately but the aggressor still has the option to back off and transition to a macro game".


Making 20 muta vs. Terran is exactly like this, you can be very aggressive with it, or you can put on pressure and transition

A quick +1 corsair/zealot timing is also exactly like this, you can either kill the zerg or just supply block him so he can't drone after the attack

and don't tell me we don't see wins like this in the ASL

If they are "exactly" like 3H Hydra, why don't we see more Terran/Zerg dying to "Muta bust" and "Zealot bust".

If you're using this logic, basically any build where you make units and attack fits the description.

Once again, it's super oversimplification.

What a strawman! When Jaedong invented the 11 Mutalisk 2 hatch rush he wiped the floor with terrans until they could build up turrets in anticipation for defence. He changed the landscape. I guess that doesn't count since we are past that. I guess only the latest meta counts by that regard and that is an oversimplification, too.
Turrican
Shinokuki
Profile Joined July 2013
United States923 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-09-19 14:27:26
September 19 2025 14:19 GMT
#206
TMNT forgot about 8rax which is the most ultimate "only strat in the game with the potential to kill but agressor has literally infinite advantages." Its pretty hard to see 973 these days and you get to see pretty uninformed posters here, still claiming 973 is still this "mythical" build that can always destroy protoss. Soma doesn't even upload any guides on 973 anymore because it's hard as hell to execute it. 8 RAX literally has all the upsides.


Life is just life
goody153
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
44235 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-09-19 16:11:05
September 19 2025 16:10 GMT
#207
Soma #1 seed in not surprising

Larva just reminded me why he won an ASL back then lol

This seasons R16 is kinda amazing
this is a quote
RJBTVYOUTUBE
Profile Joined December 2023
Netherlands1044 Posts
September 19 2025 19:21 GMT
#208
On September 20 2025 01:10 goody153 wrote:
Soma #1 seed in not surprising

Larva just reminded me why he won an ASL back then lol

This seasons R16 is kinda amazing

Larva might actually be the anti-meta player. instead of cutting costs everywhere, he will instead spend a little bit more on most things and play it safe and secure. this might be the anti-meta way of dismantling the current meta.
JDON MY SOUL!
TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
3091 Posts
September 19 2025 20:36 GMT
#209
On September 19 2025 23:19 Shinokuki wrote:
TMNT forgot about 8rax which is the most ultimate "only strat in the game with the potential to kill but agressor has literally infinite advantages." Its pretty hard to see 973 these days and you get to see pretty uninformed posters here, still claiming 973 is still this "mythical" build that can always destroy protoss. Soma doesn't even upload any guides on 973 anymore because it's hard as hell to execute it. 8 RAX literally has all the upsides.



Fair point about 8 Rax. I did forget about it. It is a build that if not successful, the game is still playable for Terran (in most cases). However its potential to kill is far less below 3H Hydra. It relies on the Zerg opening to deal damage. A simple Pool first opening counters it. It can be scouted. And even in Hatch first opening Zerg can rely on micro to hold (albeit more difficult for the Z). Compare that to a Hydra bust where no amount of micro can save you and there's no reliable way to scout?

Soma doesn't upload guides about 973 anymore is no proof lol. Their guides are for ladder players anyway, not progamers.
Shinokuki
Profile Joined July 2013
United States923 Posts
September 19 2025 22:12 GMT
#210
On September 20 2025 05:36 TMNT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2025 23:19 Shinokuki wrote:
TMNT forgot about 8rax which is the most ultimate "only strat in the game with the potential to kill but agressor has literally infinite advantages." Its pretty hard to see 973 these days and you get to see pretty uninformed posters here, still claiming 973 is still this "mythical" build that can always destroy protoss. Soma doesn't even upload any guides on 973 anymore because it's hard as hell to execute it. 8 RAX literally has all the upsides.



Fair point about 8 Rax. I did forget about it. It is a build that if not successful, the game is still playable for Terran (in most cases). However its potential to kill is far less below 3H Hydra. It relies on the Zerg opening to deal damage. A simple Pool first opening counters it. It can be scouted. And even in Hatch first opening Zerg can rely on micro to hold (albeit more difficult for the Z). Compare that to a Hydra bust where no amount of micro can save you and there's no reliable way to scout?

Soma doesn't upload guides about 973 anymore is no proof lol. Their guides are for ladder players anyway, not progamers.


It's hard to even execute 973 place when majority of protoss goes for 1 gate expand. 8 rax is truly a build that either puts terran on even footing or gets to gain significant advantage. These days, it's not even 973 that kills protoss. It's "weird timing" that kills protoss such as 5 hat hydra or all in ling rush. You can't do 973 on certain spawns as well. These guides are also for progamers btw and you actually have JD/effort watching them.
Life is just life
Tanzklaue
Profile Joined January 2012
Germany1415 Posts
September 20 2025 20:33 GMT
#211
>group has no protoss
>still multiple pages of protoss-centric whining

Larva plays Starcraft like my dad would play Starcraft if he were a pro; This is a compliment btw.
felleN
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia67 Posts
September 21 2025 07:41 GMT
#212
If snow can beat effort can see him in the finals, I'm hoping we don't get a Effort Soma ZVZ finals
"I am fucking godly at, like, fucking god. AHHHH" -combatEX
Phyanketto
Profile Joined September 2011
United States601 Posts
September 21 2025 07:53 GMT
#213
They seriously need to split the audio feed for crowd and Korean casters. Foreigners should have the crowd reactions at full volume in the English cast along with game sound. Who cares if we hear korean commentators in the background, that's how it's been since time immemorial
세 가지 제어
FataLe
Profile Joined November 2010
New Zealand4517 Posts
September 22 2025 00:22 GMT
#214
Hey guys I don't watch Brood War but do sometimes follow the results. Would anyone kindly summarise why SoulKey had an early exit?
hi. big fan.
mtcn77
Profile Joined September 2013
Turkey633 Posts
September 22 2025 01:31 GMT
#215
On September 22 2025 09:22 FataLe wrote:
Hey guys I don't watch Brood War but do sometimes follow the results. Would anyone kindly summarise why SoulKey had an early exit?

By this point, it was certain he couldn't win a 5th title.
The inclusion of Roaring Currents in a Bo7 switches the meta to drop play - Soulkey doesn't include the drop play in his arsenal. You need somebody like Jaedong in order to play with overlords. That is an auto 0-1 versus terran in the finals, if he made it that far. That was a mental loss for him.
Also, the zerg contemporaries were too many for him to remove from his group. People assume too much from Soulkey, he actually is the slowest meta developing of the zerg pros. That is why he took so long to beat JyJ and why he can never be a zvz specialist like effort.
Turrican
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13990 Posts
September 22 2025 12:16 GMT
#216
On September 22 2025 09:22 FataLe wrote:
Hey guys I don't watch Brood War but do sometimes follow the results. Would anyone kindly summarise why SoulKey had an early exit?

He somehow missed the valk push Barracks was going for and went into a ZvZ (his worst matchup) vs Effort (who's insane in the matchup)
Chain 1 Arthalion Chain 2 Urgula Chain 3 Mululu Chain 4 Lukias
FataLe
Profile Joined November 2010
New Zealand4517 Posts
September 23 2025 01:08 GMT
#217
Thanks guys.
hi. big fan.
iopq
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States1013 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-09-23 07:41:19
September 23 2025 07:33 GMT
#218
On September 19 2025 17:51 TMNT wrote:

If they are "exactly" like 3H Hydra, why don't we see more Terran/Zerg dying to "Muta bust" and "Zealot bust".



+ Show Spoiler +
Soma literally killed Light with it in ASL just the other day
iopq
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States1013 Posts
September 23 2025 07:36 GMT
#219
On September 22 2025 09:22 FataLe wrote:
Hey guys I don't watch Brood War but do sometimes follow the results. Would anyone kindly summarise why SoulKey had an early exit?


Because he was actually lucky to win so many in a row. What people don't remember is in the ZvZ finals he had more build order wins. If his opponent went a different build even once he would have lost. Getting Sharp as the finals opponent was also lucky. Around finals time he lost in an online match to Light 1-4.

He barely beat BeSt as well. BeSt could play differently in just ONE game of the series and take it.
mtcn77
Profile Joined September 2013
Turkey633 Posts
September 24 2025 09:15 GMT
#220
On September 23 2025 16:36 iopq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2025 09:22 FataLe wrote:
Hey guys I don't watch Brood War but do sometimes follow the results. Would anyone kindly summarise why SoulKey had an early exit?


Because he was actually lucky to win so many in a row. What people don't remember is in the ZvZ finals he had more build order wins. If his opponent went a different build even once he would have lost. Getting Sharp as the finals opponent was also lucky. Around finals time he lost in an online match to Light 1-4.

He barely beat BeSt as well. BeSt could play differently in just ONE game of the series and take it.

If best won the first match, it would be a very different matchset.
Turrican
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