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I didnt call it, but I did have a hunch:
On August 29 2025 17:40 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online) Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible. Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16. on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high.
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On September 08 2025 21:39 Peeano wrote:
SK 0-3 out in his own orchestrated group.
He just gave up or not no power left. Should have gone sleeping instead of preparing on a rush.
He actually was ahead in every game some even big leads. But he deserves the rest, he will come back.
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On September 09 2025 01:22 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:I didnt call it, but I did have a hunch: Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 17:40 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online) Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible. Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16. on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high.
But that is not really true. Soulkey had a mediocre online performance before his first title, an okay online performance before his second title. He actually had insane performance right before the maps for SSL/ASL18 were released, but struggled to adapt to those maps, specially against Terran. In response, he abused crazy zerg in SSL (third title). Before his fourth title he had a good performance but not clearly above everyone else, although he had been less active the prior weeks, but it was expected he would get back in shape after increasing his activity.
The main difference between ASL20 and all those other titles, I think, are lack of motivation to practice and hubris.
Lack of motovation: he barely played any BW in the last 3 weeks. And let's be clear: he streamed for more than half of those days, but he played LOL and random crap instead of practicing. He also has very few games in cwal. All in all. He didn't give a crap about practicing. What Simplistik wrote in the preview for the ro16 is just plain wrong: SK's lack of online practice is not because he practiced offline, he just didn't practice at all.
Not only was he inactive for the last 3 weeks, but also he lost to Best 2/7 before going inactive, and lost to bisu 3/4 just a few days ago in the only games between his inactivity period and ASL.
And yet with all his more than mediocre recent performance and lack of practice, he took for granted that he would go to round of 4, and even had the luxury of not picking his best option (Sharp, see group selection on tastosis) out of pity instead of selecting the player that would maximize his chances of winning.
I'm a Soulkey fan, but I'm glad he didn't win. He simply didn't deserve it. He had to be humbled and reality checked.
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Can we discuss how the Ro 16 format is bullshit?
Why would it be bo 1 in the first match? The first match decides just as much as any other match (since it decides whether you go to losers or winners match) but it's randomly bo1
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Oh my god what on earth happened here lmfao
rest in pieces, liquibets
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Netherlands5628 Posts
On September 09 2025 06:17 iopq wrote:
Can we discuss how the Ro 16 format is bullshit?
Why would it be bo 1 in the first match? The first match decides just as much as any other match (since it decides whether you go to losers or winners match) but it's randomly bo1
The champ gets to pretty much cherry pick his own group AND the first match up. That is indeed kinda bullshit, but some call it privilege. And karma is great entertainment.
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On September 09 2025 06:17 iopq wrote:
Can we discuss how the Ro 16 format is bullshit?
Why would it be bo 1 in the first match? The first match decides just as much as any other match (since it decides whether you go to losers or winners match) but it's randomly bo1 very simple.
5 best of 3s take to long.
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On September 09 2025 06:47 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2025 06:17 iopq wrote:
Can we discuss how the Ro 16 format is bullshit?
Why would it be bo 1 in the first match? The first match decides just as much as any other match (since it decides whether you go to losers or winners match) but it's randomly bo1 very simple. 5 best of 3s take to long.
Yes, but it privileges the first game as twice as important as the other games. Most other events do the opposite:
Winners bracket bo3 (including first games), losers bo1
that way the person who moves on from winners bracket had to win two bo3 series
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the game with 'less' stakes is a bo1, no one is going home or advancing.
The games where someone advances or is eliminated is a bo3.
I'd much rather have the current system then to have the elimination matches be a bo1 coinflip.
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I had ChatGPT do some simulations, so take it with a grain of salt, seems both variants are not that different
Assumptions (what I simulated)
4-player GSL group (5 matches: M1, M2, M3 winners’, M4 losers’, M5 decider).
Player A is the “target” (the strongest). A has per-game win probability p vs any other player.
Matches between non-A players are 50/50 per game.
All matches are Bo1 except the one you choose to be Bo3. Two variants:
Variant 1 (M1 Bo3, M5 Bo1) — first match is Bo3, decider is Bo1.
Variant 2 (M1 Bo1, M5 Bo3) — first match is Bo1, decider is Bo3.
I simulated many groups (200k trials each) to estimate the probability A qualifies from the group.
Results (probability A qualifies)
per-game p (approx. Elo Δ) M1=Bo3, M5=Bo1 M1=Bo1, M5=Bo3 difference (B − A)
0.536 (Δ≈25) 56.26% 56.43% +0.17 pp
0.570 (Δ≈50) 62.18% 62.27% +0.09 pp
0.606 (Δ≈75) 68.05% 68.20% +0.15 pp
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On September 09 2025 07:00 iopq wrote:I had ChatGPT do some simulations, so take it with a grain of salt, seems both variants are not that different Show nested quote +Assumptions (what I simulated)
4-player GSL group (5 matches: M1, M2, M3 winners’, M4 losers’, M5 decider).
Player A is the “target” (the strongest). A has per-game win probability p vs any other player.
Matches between non-A players are 50/50 per game.
All matches are Bo1 except the one you choose to be Bo3. Two variants:
Variant 1 (M1 Bo3, M5 Bo1) — first match is Bo3, decider is Bo1.
Variant 2 (M1 Bo1, M5 Bo3) — first match is Bo1, decider is Bo3.
I simulated many groups (200k trials each) to estimate the probability A qualifies from the group.
Results (probability A qualifies)
per-game p (approx. Elo Δ) M1=Bo3, M5=Bo1 M1=Bo1, M5=Bo3 difference (B − A)
0.536 (Δ≈25) 56.26% 56.43% +0.17 pp
0.570 (Δ≈50) 62.18% 62.27% +0.09 pp
0.606 (Δ≈75) 68.05% 68.20% +0.15 pp
Still, it says Bo1;Bo3(in other words as it stands right now) is better for Soulkey, whatever his chances may be for qualifying into Ro8.
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On September 09 2025 04:15 laurasad wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2025 01:22 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:I didnt call it, but I did have a hunch: On August 29 2025 17:40 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online) Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible. Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16. on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high. But that is not really true. Soulkey had a mediocre online performance before his first title, an okay online performance before his second title. He actually had insane performance right before the maps for SSL/ASL18 were released, but struggled to adapt to those maps, specially against Terran. In response, he abused crazy zerg in SSL (third title). Before his fourth title he had a good performance but not clearly above everyone else, although he had been less active the prior weeks, but it was expected he would get back in shape after increasing his activity. The main difference between ASL20 and all those other titles, I think, are lack of motivation to practice and hubris. Lack of motovation: he barely played any BW in the last 3 weeks. And let's be clear: he streamed for more than half of those days, but he played LOL and random crap instead of practicing. He also has very few games in cwal. All in all. He didn't give a crap about practicing. What Simplistik wrote in the preview for the ro16 is just plain wrong: SK's lack of online practice is not because he practiced offline, he just didn't practice at all. Not only was he inactive for the last 3 weeks, but also he lost to Best 2/7 before going inactive, and lost to bisu 3/4 just a few days ago in the only games between his inactivity period and ASL. And yet with all his more than mediocre recent performance and lack of practice, he took for granted that he would go to round of 4, and even had the luxury of not picking his best option (Sharp, see group selection on tastosis) out of pity instead of selecting the player that would maximize his chances of winning. I'm a Soulkey fan, but I'm glad he didn't win. He simply didn't deserve it. He had to be humbled and reality checked.
And even his ladder play was all as terran. He played more as terran in his prep than he played as zerg.
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On August 29 2025 06:08 mtcn77 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2025 22:41 goody153 wrote:
Effort making it out first and quite easily is not what I expected ngl
Maybe Soulkey cant get the 5th title this time around with the amount of zergs in r16
Also I expected alot from Calm being so confident during the interview Wait till you see him in the quarterfinals. This guy beat Flash at his peak. Soulkey will have a hard time running away from him in the brackets.
What do you say guys? I called it, or what!
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the way SK dropped out today could have happened just as well in any of the previous seasons imo
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On September 09 2025 07:56 Kraekkling wrote:
the way SK dropped out today could have happened just as well in any of the previous seasons imo
You just don't understand the pressure of playing in a Roaring Currents map pool. How many finals have Soulkey won in Bo7? I say close to 100% if we discount Sharp, sorry Sharp UwU.
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ALLEYCAT BLUES51068 Posts
On September 09 2025 06:47 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2025 06:17 iopq wrote:
Can we discuss how the Ro 16 format is bullshit?
Why would it be bo 1 in the first match? The first match decides just as much as any other match (since it decides whether you go to losers or winners match) but it's randomly bo1 very simple. 5 best of 3s take to long.
Pretty much this. They're just trying to make sure everyone can get to at least the last train home.
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On September 09 2025 06:17 iopq wrote:
Can we discuss how the Ro 16 format is bullshit?
Why would it be bo 1 in the first match? The first match decides just as much as any other match (since it decides whether you go to losers or winners match) but it's randomly bo1
I agree with you, 5 Bo 3 is better than 2 Bo 1 + 3 Bo 3. Bo1 killed SK, it's not Barrack.
This is one of the best format:
 2018 Korea StarCraft League Season 1
My opinion, I prefer Bo 2 to Bo 1 or Bo 3. In Bo 2, we will have win, lose, and draw.
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On September 09 2025 04:15 laurasad wrote:
What Simplistik wrote in the preview for the ro16 is just plain wrong: SK's lack of online practice is not because he practiced offline, he just didn't practice at all.
I'm happy to take responsibility for my mistakes, but I didn't write any Ro16 preview... 
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On September 09 2025 07:56 Kraekkling wrote:
the way SK dropped out today could have happened just as well in any of the previous seasons imo
How so? He literally was ahead in every game he played. With quite a margin.
First game straight build order win with overlord even scouting efforts hidden base. Somehow didnt see it, eventhough we see in the life casting his screen switching to that overlord, creep visibile and suddenly send exactly at that point, on the height of the hatch his overlord to the right side back home or whatever. Even than
2nd game vs effort again literally quite ahead. Sees everything with overlord has build advantage decides to do a mass ling flood on a map with a tiny choke. Than gifts mutas randomly.
Vs barracks barracks does nothing and goes for valk push, the thing that literally vs popular 6-5 seasons ago. I honestly thought barracks was a moron for playing literally the easiest game for SK, the anti terran late game god.
But SK didnt even show up…
Even efforts game was strange, strange sunken placements …
I dont know what is going this season, but i find more than strange, the games we are having, like this isnt normal anymore…
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EPT
