As usual spoilers are ok in this thread and LR threads, but only in these places.
ASL21 General Discussion
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WARNING: Contains Spoilers | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50898 Posts
As usual spoilers are ok in this thread and LR threads, but only in these places. | ||
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DoctorLife
12 Posts
Lot of terran. Going to be a lot of tvt to start at least | ||
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Urth
United States1254 Posts
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felleN
Australia85 Posts
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Toshinou-Kyouko
Philippines602 Posts
what | ||
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TMNT
3158 Posts
For every season, the lineup for Protoss has always been Bisu Best Snow Mini + Stork + Rain (when he plays) + one or two of Shuttle YSC Free Tyson Motive Paralyze..., so the expected Ps will alway be 6-9 anyway. This season we have some freak results where Mini and Stork essentially lost 4 Bo3 to Mong sSak Piano Scan. Some will say Mini is in a slump and Stork is washed etc. but I think it's just matchup volatility and if the qualifiers were played again with the same exact opponents, they would beat them 9 out of 10 times. These freak results have happened before. Didn't Queen, JYJ, Sharp, Action all fail to qualify once in recent seasons? It probably would help if the last map weren't Polestar though - the map has 60.3% TvZ and 57.5% TvP. If it were Radeon, maybe Stork would have beaten Piano in day 1, Mini would have beaten Mong/sSak, and Action would have beaten Leta, and we would be looking at 7 12 9 distribution. Not that it's balanced but it's better. | ||
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SCRVN
179 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Group A - Sharp, Scan Group B - Soulkey, JyJ Group C - Larva, Shine Group D - Light, RoyaL Group E - FlaSh, Rush Group F - Best, JD | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
Although 8 zergs is not that low. But they did elimimate each other a bunch. Also anyone saying Mini is washed up has NOT been following Kcm, spons, or proleagues. He was just behind with Bisu for currently best performing Protoss. Yes. Even better than SnOw(slight slump) and Best. It really is just one of those few times where "lessers players" perform their best and win. TMNT mentioned knockup possibly playing a part in this and I agree slightly. Action also looked good but failed. | ||
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Ideas
United States8169 Posts
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doktordingerdonger
76 Posts
![]() So they will fail hard again in ASL but it doesn't matter because the money is elsewhere... waste of ASL slots really | ||
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doktordingerdonger
76 Posts
On March 09 2026 21:18 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Also the low numbers of zergs can be attributed to Effort not signing up, and loads of ZvZ eliminations in qualifiers day 2. Although 8 zergs is not that low. But they did elimimate each other a bunch. Also anyone saying Mini is washed up has NOT been following Kcm, spons, or proleagues. He was just behind with Bisu for currently best performing Protoss. Yes. Even better than SnOw(slight slump) and Best. It really is just one of those few times where "lessers players" perform their best and win. TMNT mentioned knockup possibly playing a part in this and I agree slightly. Action also looked good but failed. There have been 2 tvt finals and 4 zvzs... even if all zergs in the finals would go through and all terrans in the tvt finals would not,aka 4 extra slots just for zergs and 2 fewer slots for terrans, even with this ridiculous format we would still have 13 terrans and 12 zergs. Also all zvzs have been in the second qualifier, after the better terrans made it through, so there is no wonder we have a bunch of mirrors in day 2. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5806 Posts
Group A - Rain, Mong Group B - Soulkey, JyJ Group C - Larva, huro Group D - Light, RoyaL Group E - FlaSh, Speed Group F - Best, JD | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 09 2026 23:58 doktordingerdonger wrote: There is no wonder why terrans get into ASL so much with tesagi, but fail to convert it because all they do is farm abuse TvZ imbalance while avoiding the balanced PvT. There are 122 TvZs on the list vs 19(!) PvT ![]() So they will fail hard again in ASL but it doesn't matter because the money is elsewhere... waste of ASL slots really That first claim is not quite accurate. Most Protoss avoid spons beside the chinese woniu or the starcast spons, of which most are NOT documented on Eloboard because Starcast wants exclusivity to the broadcast and asks players not to stream it. Woniu spons also half thr time have one player not streaming it. Eloboard needs both players to have streamed it, or it has to be an official event. So A LOT of protoss spons are missing. Woniu and Starcast happen pretty much daily. We are missing 30-50 games a week. The zergs on the other hand play a lot of spons, and because the tosses arent, they have to play vs terrans. So it is definitely not an avoidance by the terrans. It is top protoss being very selective in what they play. | ||
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vndestiny
Singapore3455 Posts
On March 10 2026 01:19 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: That first claim is not quite accurate. Most Protoss avoid spons beside the chinese woniu or the starcast spons, of which most are NOT documented on Eloboard because Starcast wants exclusivity to the broadcast and asks players not to stream it. Woniu spons also half thr time have one player not streaming it. Eloboard needs both players to have streamed it, or it has to be an official event. So A LOT of protoss spons are missing. Woniu and Starcast happen pretty much daily. We are missing 30-50 games a week. The zergs on the other hand play a lot of spons, and because the tosses arent, they have to play vs terrans. So it is definitely not an avoidance by the terrans. It is top protoss being very selective in what they play. Huh that’s interesting, TIL a few things. Though naturally it brings up a few question 1. Why eloboard entry needs both players stream, not just 1? I can’t quite hypothesize the reason. 2. How come Protoss in particular is more selective in spons compare to their peers? | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 10 2026 20:41 vndestiny wrote: Huh that’s interesting, TIL a few things. Though naturally it brings up a few question 1. Why eloboard entry needs both players stream, not just 1? I can’t quite hypothesize the reason. 2. How come Protoss in particular is more selective in spons compare to their peers? I honestly dont know why the point 1 exists, but perhaps to prevent cheating by having evidence from both perspectives. point 2 I is hard to conclude why but I can speculate. I know SnOw streams less since becoming a father so he might just be more efficient with his time. Chinese spon is planned in advance, and proleagues have a set time and happen almost daily. By picking these two events to play it is easier to plan and less time consuming, plus it guarantees that time spent on BW also generates income. Many others stream for longer periods of time and have more time to fill with "uncertainty" with their activities during stream. Others generally ladder a bit, maybe get a viewer sponsor match, browse other streams, or they coach. I do know that Rain plays almost NO sponsor games, plays ladder semi-seriously, plays proleagues, and messes about a bunch on stream. | ||
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
Rain got in, but then I saw his qualifier group. What a joke.Tbf Flash also had an easy one, but not like he needed that. Sea completely dodged qualifiers? lol Calm did it again? Wow... He really is brainy, huh?I'm very sad Mini didn't qualify, but I heard Mong was doing well recently (like all Terrans?)Better luck next time! Luckily Shine can still give us a show in the first rounds.Good luck to YSC and Scan!! | ||
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Ideas
United States8169 Posts
Not saying he's going to win anything or even make the Ro16 (but hes got a shot with his group), but would just like to see him not get completely stomped by any pro haha. predictions: sharp/mong soulkey/ssak larva/hero light/royal flash/rush best/jd | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7870 Posts
Flash is the GOAT though so, I’m sure he’ll be alright. | ||
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Puosu
7015 Posts
On March 11 2026 03:10 Ideas wrote: Is this the year of YSC? He seems like the most successful amateur/non-kespa player after soma, no? Would love to see a new protoss able to compete. Not saying he's going to win anything or even make the Ro16 (but hes got a shot with his group), but would just like to see him not get completely stomped by any pro haha. predictions: sharp/mong soulkey/ssak larva/hero light/royal flash/rush best/jd this is young YSC (pic from https://namu.wiki/w/윤수철 ) ![]() so there's at least some kespa affiliation ^^ | ||
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M2
Bulgaria4161 Posts
On March 11 2026 03:53 Vasoline73 wrote: Although it’s unlikely I think Speed/Rush could both upset Flash in Bo1… Flash is the GOAT though so, I’m sure he’ll be alright. TvT is the most upsets unfriendly match up though | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
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NovaTheFeared
United States7232 Posts
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Destroyer
Czech Republic949 Posts
I am also not surpriced that Organ did it, because he watches / casts soooo many high tier games and himself being reasonably capable of executing, there he is.. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 11 2026 06:45 NovaTheFeared wrote: Based on these results, are the maps terran favored or the most terran favored of all time? Its hard to call tbh. The top ranks on Eloboard are currently almost all zerg. Somewhat implies the map pool is zerg favored. But the map pool could very well be terran favored. edit correction: beforw yesterday it was largely zergs, but at this point in time rush and light climbed a few spots and some zergs dropped a few spots. before yesterday it was jaedong flash soma action queen hero and then terran and a protoss. | ||
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 12 2026 00:49 Peeano wrote: I would love for a new Protoss to arise, but the truth is that I miss Jangbi. All top Protoss since have been failing to go on proper winning-when-it-matters streaks. Jangbi was the next big thing. A more consistent Rain would've been great. A SnOw not held back by family commitments would probably be the next ASL champion. But he's cut back on his play time by like 50% so he's not able to grow or maintain peak form. | ||
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Destroyer
Czech Republic949 Posts
On March 12 2026 00:49 Peeano wrote: I would love for a new Protoss to arise, but the truth is that I miss Jangbi. All top Protoss since have been failing to go on proper winning-when-it-matters streaks. I miss him so much. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5120 Posts
On March 12 2026 00:52 Peeano wrote: My dream is Snow vs Flash/JD finals, since Best would choke anyway and Bisu lacks competitive hunger. I want JD/Flash finals with JD overcoming his choking vs Flash and finally winning. But that's way too nostalgic and extremely corny as well. | ||
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Miragee
8659 Posts
Jokes aside, some of these groups are hard to call imho. I think I will go with these predictions: Group A: Sharp, Rain Group B: Soulkey, Ssak (not sure if Jyj is still slumping) Group C: Larva, Shine (literally a toss-up group...) Group D: Light, Mind Group E: Rush, Flash (Speed got a decent shot) Group F: Best, Zero (could as well be JD) | ||
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Lazyer
United States371 Posts
I hope we get crowd shots of group E, i wanna see how many people are gonna stay for a TvT slug fest even with Flash. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
A: Mong Scan B: Soulkey Ample C: HerO Larva D: Light Royal E: FlaSh Speed F: Best Jaedong Who I think: A: Mong Rain B: Soulkey sSak C: HerO Larva D: Light Royal E: FlaSh Rush F: Best Jaedong | ||
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bulbousbrain
13 Posts
On March 09 2026 21:18 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Also the low numbers of zergs can be attributed to Effort not signing up, and loads of ZvZ eliminations in qualifiers day 2. Although 8 zergs is not that low. But they did elimimate each other a bunch. Also anyone saying Mini is washed up has NOT been following Kcm, spons, or proleagues. He was just behind with Bisu for currently best performing Protoss. Yes. Even better than SnOw(slight slump) and Best. It really is just one of those few times where "lessers players" perform their best and win. TMNT mentioned knockup possibly playing a part in this and I agree slightly. Action also looked good but failed. You keep saying Mini's been so good in KCM, which I watch religiously every week, and I don't agree at all, so I got curious and looked it up. Uh, not really. He's been okay. Nothing special, and zero (unless I missed one) big weeks in a looong time. Don't care about sponmatches or Proleague. I suspect you just be saying random shit. His skill looks topped out to me. Good player, sometimes very good player, but not consistently great, and definitely not a championship-caliber player. More like the Sharp of Protoss at best. Fun player, but you never expect Sharp to reliably compete v the very best in the world. Sharp's good v Protoss, gets washed v top Zergs, is good vT (a MU I couldn't care less about). Sharp puts on a good show but rarely consistently beats the top players. Sounds like Mini to me. Mini's really good at early game micro and timing attacks/turning small early-game advantages into devastating attacks. He's not good at late game army management, mid-late game on decision-making, and doesn't have great Reaver control. Early game micro means he's great v players he's better than and worse vs players he's worse than because early game micro doesn't mean much v the best in the world. It's routinely deflected. So he's resorted to a lot of risky builds to get a mid-game advantage, and if it doesn't work out he loses quite badly. Those are the patterns I see in his play. | ||
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gravity
Australia2116 Posts
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
Edit: Also Boxer Vs Flash on Python | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 13 2026 15:00 bulbousbrain wrote: You keep saying Mini's been so good in KCM, which I watch religiously every week, and I don't agree at all, so I got curious and looked it up. Uh, not really. He's been okay. Nothing special, and zero (unless I missed one) big weeks in a looong time. Don't care about sponmatches or Proleague. I suspect you just be saying random shit. His skill looks topped out to me. Good player, sometimes very good player, but not consistently great, and definitely not a championship-caliber player. More like the Sharp of Protoss at best. Fun player, but you never expect Sharp to reliably compete v the very best in the world. Sharp's good v Protoss, gets washed v top Zergs, is good vT (a MU I couldn't care less about). Sharp puts on a good show but rarely consistently beats the top players. Sounds like Mini to me. Mini's really good at early game micro and timing attacks/turning small early-game advantages into devastating attacks. He's not good at late game army management, mid-late game on decision-making, and doesn't have great Reaver control. Early game micro means he's great v players he's better than and worse vs players he's worse than because early game micro doesn't mean much v the best in the world. It's routinely deflected. So he's resorted to a lot of risky builds to get a mid-game advantage, and if it doesn't work out he loses quite badly. Those are the patterns I see in his play. https://eloboard.com/men/bbs/board.php?bo_table=rank_list Mini is now rank #2 on eloboard, meaning he is the 2nd best performing player at this exact point in time in online play. Mini went 3-2 in KCM 2026 season 1. not bad, about average I would say but its a very small number of matches played. http://eloboard.com/men/bbs/board.php?bo_table=bj_list&wr_id=38 If we look at his match history he performs about the EXACT same as the other top protoss players do in terms of win percentage, difference being his opponents are almost exlusively top ranked for their respective races. The Idea that Mini does poorly vs top 4 of each race is not supported by data. Even your KCM data does not support it for the present. | ||
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Postalpj
10 Posts
I won’t rehash the obvious reasons Protoss is playing handicapped, but I will say we need custom maps or something to undo the reaver nerf. Such an amazing unit. powerful, but cannot be massed. Having a built in delay after unloaded isn’t needed in the modern top tier brood war. Reavers and Templars are so cool and impactful with 0 attack move potential. The perfect set up for skill expression. If you watch a pvt and count how much damage is done by reavers and storm combined then compare it spider mines (not even counting vultures), the mines win almost every game. Aiur needs to be unchained or it will fade away. | ||
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rotta
5615 Posts
On March 14 2026 23:21 Postalpj wrote: Can anyone recall a tournament with this lopsided of faction distribution? Blizzcon 2009 ![]() | ||
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Postalpj
10 Posts
lol 😂 it was an invitational so why waste your time inviting people that you know won’t win | ||
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Poegim
Poland278 Posts
On March 15 2026 03:17 Postalpj wrote: lol 😂 it was an invitational so why waste your time inviting people that you know won’t win XDDDDDD!! true | ||
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GTR
51589 Posts
On March 14 2026 23:21 Postalpj wrote: Can anyone recall a tournament with this lopsided of faction distribution? | ||
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oxKnu
1258 Posts
To be honest, might be the best player in SC right now, if we take into account the fact that zergs get free wins on some of these maps against P. (not particularly new but anyway) But I'm not surprised to see this. This is what happens when you have multitude of years of Terran-favored/protected mappools. The other races fall behind and everything becomes a conjuncture (like Soma drilling through Protoss for example). That dude that does the mappools is slowly killing the game. ASL in 2017-2021 was so incredible to watch. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
On March 15 2026 06:32 GTR wrote: My favourite is the rigged map pool for Ever 2004 so they could get their Boxer v Oov final. Mercury and Bifrost in the same map pool ![]() | ||
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haegN
Norway546 Posts
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goody153
44267 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States13996 Posts
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Sabu113
United States11082 Posts
Well maybe a good season of Snow murdering terrans but he’ll probably get stuck with a Zerg. | ||
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RogerChillingworth
Chad3132 Posts
On March 16 2026 09:14 oxKnu wrote: Mini not qualifying is really sad. Just a few days ago he had a full clean sweep in a set in online Proleague. It was pure demolition. All of your favorite players involved too. To be honest, might be the best player in SC right now, if we take into account the fact that zergs get free wins on some of these maps against P. (not particularly new but anyway) But I'm not surprised to see this. This is what happens when you have multitude of years of Terran-favored/protected mappools. The other races fall behind and everything becomes a conjuncture (like Soma drilling through Protoss for example). That dude that does the mappools is slowly killing the game. ASL in 2017-2021 was so incredible to watch. Couldn't have said it better. 20 points is awarded to Ravenclaw. And on that note 50 points from Hufflepuff, i.e. everyone stroking Flash and Snow's carrot. Mini is way better than Flash. He's like Rocky Road ice cream. Flash is like a really great vanilla but he's still part of the Neapolitan. And then you have the people that go face first into the strawberry (Snow fans). Like all the strawb is gone and the vanilla and chocolate is still at the top wtf. Like not everyone loves Rocky Road but it's objectively better than Neopal. People just like consistency I guess, even if it's the quality of watery mayonnaise. W/e. It's sad indeed but Mini only has himself to blame after going only 4-5 to Light, falling to 2 cheeses as well, then dying to Mong and Saak a week later? I guess it was Friday the 13th or something. Maybe one day Mini will get angry again and make skin suits out of everyone. Until then I guess we have to root for Best's best bellyflop. Pretty sad state of affairs. AND ON THESE MAPS?? | ||
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
Thanks BisuDagger! | ||
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Miragee
8659 Posts
On March 17 2026 18:48 RogerChillingworth wrote: Couldn't have said it better. 20 points is awarded to Ravenclaw. And on that note 50 points from Hufflepuff, i.e. everyone stroking Flash and Snow's carrot. Mini is way better than Flash. He's like Rocky Road ice cream. Flash is like a really great vanilla but he's still part of the Neapolitan. And then you have the people that go face first into the strawberry (Snow fans). Like all the strawb is gone and the vanilla and chocolate is still at the top wtf. Like not everyone loves Rocky Road but it's objectively better than Neopal. People just like consistency I guess, even if it's the quality of watery mayonnaise. W/e. It's sad indeed but Mini only has himself to blame after going only 4-5 to Light, falling to 2 cheeses as well, then dying to Mong and Saak a week later? I guess it was Friday the 13th or something. Maybe one day Mini will get angry again and make skin suits out of everyone. Until then I guess we have to root for Best's best bellyflop. Pretty sad state of affairs. AND ON THESE MAPS?? That's...an analogy. Also wtf is rocky road? On March 17 2026 19:37 Peeano wrote: Liquibets are open, make sure you submit your first votes before the weekend ends. Thanks BisuDagger! <3 | ||
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Just_a_Moth
Canada1968 Posts
On March 18 2026 04:20 Miragee wrote: GOAT ice creamThat's...an analogy. Also wtf is rocky road? <3 | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
So here's a low-effort tier list, based on how I judge their current forms going into ASL. S: FlaSh - Rush - SnOw - SoMa A: Best - Bisu - Jaedong - Hero - Soulkey - Light - RoyaL - Queen - sSak B: Larva - Speed - BarrackS - JyJ - Mind C: Rain - Sharp - Mong - Scan - D: Shine - Ample - YSC - PianO E: Calm - Leta This is based on their all round forms. But players tend to specialize in a specific MU and have two or one weaker MU's, so don't take this as a prediction of who will win their groups. | ||
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RogerChillingworth
Chad3132 Posts
A: soma, sSaK, Larva, Best F: Snow, Flash, Artosis, very green bananas Z-: The Academy Awards, opinions on the internet, people who don't cover their mouth when they cough, leaf blowers | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 18 2026 21:14 RogerChillingworth wrote: S: Santa Clause, Darth Vader, Mini, Mini's cat, a Japanese strawberry A: soma, sSaK, Larva, Best F: Snow, Flash, Artosis, very green bananas Z-: The Academy Awards, opinions on the internet, people who don't cover their mouth when they cough, leaf blowers tbh very green bananas should be ranked in at least A tier | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
A: Best - Bisu - Jaedong - Soulkey - Light - RoyaL - Queen - SnOw - Rush B: Speed - BarrackS - JyJ - Hero - Rain - Sharp C: sSak - Larva - Mind D: Shine - Ample - Scan - Mong E: Calm - Leta - PianO - YSC S tier: Favourites to win ASL A tier: Ro16 locks. Big chance to win ASL if bracket works their way B tier: Ro16 ceiling. But some could make bracket phase C tier: Likely won't make Ro16 but good chance of an upset D tier: Not entirely ruling them out but would be surprised if they make Ro16 E tier: Fodder. | ||
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RogerChillingworth
Chad3132 Posts
Growing up in essentially farm land USA where you drive to a strip mall and that's it, Seoul is basically a series of transit stations with like an epic garden of life in between. Maybe Koreans who've lived here their whole life are like MAN, THIS PLACE SUCKS, etc. and I get that. But there is a functionality and intentionality that does not exist in many parts of the west. And I just think that's awesome. | ||
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4257 Posts
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Bisu-Fan
Russian Federation3339 Posts
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Freezard
Sweden1019 Posts
B: Soulkey, sSak C: herO, Larva D: Light, RoyaL E: Flash, Rush F: Best, ZerO Hoping for Calm and Leta though! | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
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GTR
51589 Posts
On March 21 2026 02:18 M3t4PhYzX wrote: Btw - What's the map order for the ro24, anyone knows? Game 1 and 2 - Octagon Winners and Losers - Last remaining map between Attitude, Match Point and Jane Doe Final - Last remaining map between Knockout, Neo Sylphid and Pole Star | ||
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4257 Posts
On March 21 2026 17:10 GTR wrote: Game 1 and 2 - Octagon Winners and Losers - Last remaining map between Attitude, Match Point and Jane Doe Final - Last remaining map between Knockout, Neo Sylphid and Pole Star Thank You very much. Cheers ![]() | ||
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zutt0
11 Posts
S: Flash A: Soma, Snow, Bisu B: Rush, Light, Jaedong, hero, Soulkey, Best C: Barracks, Royal, Sharp, Queen, Larva, Rain D: sSak JyJ, Mind, Speed, Mong, Scan, Shine, huro E: Piano, Ample, Leta, Calm S means favorite to win, A means potential to win and expected to make a good run, B means real potential to make a deep run but unlikely to win, C means a decent chance at Ro8 but probably not a deep run, D means real chances at Ro16 but probably not Ro8, E means Ro24 fodder. Of these, I have the most uncertainty about Soulkey, Rain, Speed, and Shine. Soulkey has been doing poorly but we know he has it in him to be a championship level player. Rain, Speed, and Shine have too little data to have much of an idea of what's going on. For groups, I've got: A: Sharp, Rain B: Soulkey, sSak C: hero, Larva D: Light, Royal E: Flash, Rush F: Jaedong, Best | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 21 2026 22:35 zutt0 wrote: Tier List: S: Flash A: Soma, Snow, Bisu B: Rush, Light, Jaedong, hero, Soulkey, Best C: Barracks, Royal, Sharp, Queen, Larva, Rain D: sSak JyJ, Mind, Speed, Mong, Scan, Shine, huro E: Piano, Ample, Leta, Calm S means favorite to win, A means potential to win and expected to make a good run, B means real potential to make a deep run but unlikely to win, C means a decent chance at Ro8 but probably not a deep run, D means real chances at Ro16 but probably not Ro8, E means Ro24 fodder. Of these, I have the most uncertainty about Soulkey, Rain, Speed, and Shine. Soulkey has been doing poorly but we know he has it in him to be a championship level player. Rain, Speed, and Shine have too little data to have much of an idea of what's going on. For groups, I've got: A: Sharp, Rain B: Soulkey, sSak C: hero, Larva D: Light, Royal E: Flash, Rush F: Jaedong, Best Speed plays more BW than the rest, but its 90% BGH, so I feel he is mechanically in peak form, but has too little practice on the new maps and the news metas. | ||
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m4ch1n1cd351r3
16 Posts
A [championship potential]: Royal, Sharp, Snow, Best, Rain, Zer0 B [dangerous in the right situation]: Light, Rush, Speed, Mind, Bisu, hero, JD, Soulkey C [round of 16 max]: BarrackS, Mong, JyJ, Scan, sSak, YSC, Shine, Calm, Larva F [pas de chance]: Piano, Leta, Ample Calm and Mind are up a tier on their nominal levels due to their playstyles' being suited for tournament play. Maybe Shine deserves this bump too. I'm on the fence with him. Though I have Rain in A tier, there is a good chance he doesn't make it out of round of 24 due to having three Terrans in his group in a best-of-1 context. Then again he could win the tournament with the right bracket and with the potential motivation of showing Flash who the true genius of Starcraft is. He might be the hardest player to assess. JD has been posting insane proleague results but seems to have cooled off a bit lately and I am predicting a full regression to the mean on that account and on account of his tournament nerves the past few years. On paper this should be a good season for Soulkey -- plenty of Terrans to beat up in late game, good number of macro maps to suit his mechanics-based style -- but his competitive fire seems to have dimmed below even Rain's level. Larva's mind is likely elsewhere too though he excels in similar situations as Soulkey, so I would expect their stocks to rise and fall together. Similar reasons as Soulkey's and Larva's apply on paper to Sharp, who benefits more than anyone else save Flash and the top two Protosses from the proliferation of Terrans as his TvT is both extremely...sharp and difficult to prepare against due to his ability to play from behind/play from unusual gamestates. I like think of Sharp as a Zerg who happens to play Terran, which should suit him extremely well in this particular tournament. Royal joins him as one of the Terran pretenders after Flash for the opposite reasons -- he pulls off technical plays better than anyone save Flash. He's almost a Protoss who happens to play Terran. Speed and BarrackS are similar in that sense but seem 1-2 levels down on Royal who looks rejuvenated. Rush and Light have enjoyed relatively favorable metas in recent ASLs but haven't been able to cement themselves as dominant players. They are extremely solid in terms of fundamental play and mechanics, especially in SK Terran play vZ, but the meta has shifted towards technical play in vZ as well as somewhat in vT, and it's hard to see either of them being able to beat Snow, Best, and/or Rain in standard play, so I can't help but wonder if they missed their chance. | ||
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XenOsky
Chile2356 Posts
On March 09 2026 12:48 Urth wrote: 15 Terran and 5 Protoss to start, lolwut sounds about right... considering the number of Terran and Protoss champions of individual tournaments in history. 2026 and finally the foreigners who don't play Protoss are starting to realize which is the hardest race of all. Numbers dont lie... | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
Finalist Hopefuls: Light, Soulkey Bracket stage warriors: Best, Bisu, Rush, Jaedong Bracket darkhorses: BarrackS, ZerO, Sharp, herO, Mind, Rain Weak players with some chances: Mong, JyJ, sSak, Larva, huro, RoyaL, PianO, Speed Happy to be here: Scan, Ample, Shine, Calm, Leta With lots of Terrans, Snow's best matchup puts him up at the top and forces Zergs to dodge them. Given we have 2 Protosses seeded already into the Ro16, I fully expect them to try to pull good TvTers into their groups to entice them to pick other Terrans. First pick with Soma also means there's always the chance players try to take him down and drag other Zergs into the group to allow them to cannibalize each other. FlaSh is the best TvT in the history of Brood War so he's obviously going to the top, and in knockout stages, his preparation is second to none too. Soma at the top naturally as defending champion. But less of a chance with all these Terrans and less Protoss to feast on. | ||
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iFU.pauline
France1712 Posts
On March 22 2026 15:22 FlaShFTW wrote: Title Contenders: FlaSh, Soma, Snow Finalist Hopefuls: Light, Soulkey Bracket stage warriors: Best, Bisu, Rush, Jaedong Bracket darkhorses: BarrackS, ZerO, Sharp, herO, Mind, Rain Weak players with some chances: Mong, JyJ, sSak, Larva, huro, RoyaL, PianO, Speed Happy to be here: Scan, Ample, Shine, Calm, Leta With lots of Terrans, Snow's best matchup puts him up at the top and forces Zergs to dodge them. Given we have 2 Protosses seeded already into the Ro16, I fully expect them to try to pull good TvTers into their groups to entice them to pick other Terrans. First pick with Soma also means there's always the chance players try to take him down and drag other Zergs into the group to allow them to cannibalize each other. FlaSh is the best TvT in the history of Brood War so he's obviously going to the top, and in knockout stages, his preparation is second to none too. Soma at the top naturally as defending champion. But less of a chance with all these Terrans and less Protoss to feast on. Looks very accurate to me. I would only make a slight modification by putting SK in title contenders. With so many terran, it is not impossible that he stomps this ASL once more. He destroyed Light 4/1 and killed Flash 4/2 (was not streaming but Flash yes) not long ago, his mind game is beyond all current terran for sure. He needs to avoid zvz though coze he won't make it vs JD. Overall, Flash looks the most solid title contender regardless of the match up. | ||
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Whiztard
United States229 Posts
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SCRVN
179 Posts
On March 24 2026 08:56 Whiztard wrote: Do we know the venue of the ASL finals yet? I will be in Korea at that time. Why do you love watching TvT with BO7? btw, if semi-finals matches are not 2 TvTs, it will be a pretty successful season. | ||
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Naib
Hungary4903 Posts
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Talaris
Switzerland762 Posts
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
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PachiBW
14 Posts
On March 25 2026 14:17 a-game wrote: How the hell did they manage to organize all the groups into mirror match overdose. Pretty sure they organize the players into 4 tiers and then randomly draw a player from each tier. Tier 1 is paired with tier 4 for the first match and tier 2 with tier 3 for the second. | ||
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doktordingerdonger
76 Posts
A decisive win in this group probably gives us the ASL winner | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On March 25 2026 21:12 doktordingerdonger wrote: The JD, Queen, Best, Leta group is by far the most annoying one it seems. Just for Leta, both Z would have to prepare much much more due to his style. Everyone have to prepare 3 different matchups. A decisive win in this group probably gives us the ASL winner Nah, Leta's style is outdated and has been figured out. I have seen a lot of present day Leta games and I think his style matches up terribly in the modern meta. Now watch me eat my words next week as he wins the group. | ||
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doktordingerdonger
76 Posts
On March 25 2026 21:55 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Nah, Leta's style is outdated and has been figured out. I have seen a lot of present day Leta games and I think his style matches up terribly in the modern meta. Now watch me eat my words next week as he wins the group. I mean they all have to prepare more because of his outdated style, which is a matchup on its own. Leta could even cheese and go standard. Basically you have to prepare 4 matchups | ||
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Talaris
Switzerland762 Posts
On March 25 2026 14:17 a-game wrote: How the hell did they manage to organize all the groups into mirror match overdose. With just 2 P for those 24 spots it's impossible to avoid Z or T mirrors, esp 15 terrans means thare there are 2-3 expected each group :D Kinda why - despite not hating T - I am hoping that both P and quite alot of Z will advance on top of the 7 T that are already qualified (as of yet). Would be nice to get a rather evenly split Ro16 /crosses fingers, personally non-mirrors are more fun to watch. | ||
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seRapH
United States9806 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
On March 26 2026 00:35 seRapH wrote: You really don't need the "personally" added on because preferring non-mirrors is almost a universal opinion. As a caster who wanted to go to bed, I loved ZvZs and hated TvTs with a passion. | ||
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m4ch1n1cd351r3
16 Posts
On March 26 2026 01:12 FlaShFTW wrote: As a caster who wanted to go to bed, I loved ZvZs and hated TvTs with a passion. Complete opposite for me. ZvZ lacks depth whereas TvT is the deepest matchup. But then again I don't open YouTube videos shorter than 20min. | ||
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GTR
51589 Posts
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SCRVN
179 Posts
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rotta
5615 Posts
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Qikz
United Kingdom12033 Posts
On March 26 2026 00:35 seRapH wrote: You really don't need the "personally" added on because preferring non-mirrors is almost a universal opinion. Mirrors to me are great, because when you give both players the exact same tools it can often show who mechanically and strategically is the stronger player in the matchup a lot easier. See firebathero vs Flash on Neo Moon Glaive which was an hour match and one of the greatest of all time in BW imo and the entire final TvT between FlaSh and FanTaSy in the tving 2012 OSL (omg this was 14 years ago) and tell me the entire set isn't amazing. I think ZvZ is the most disappointing, but I think it's mostly just down to how zerg is designed. Lings and Mutas are just so good that if you try and go for anything else you're going to be stuck on 2 base forever and die unless you have like a pocket third or something you can spore up on and pray you can get to plague/devourers. | ||
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jaeboss
69 Posts
On March 30 2026 04:45 Qikz wrote: I think ZvZ is the most disappointing, but I think it's mostly just down to how zerg is designed. Lings and Mutas are just so good that if you try and go for anything else you're going to be stuck on 2 base forever and die unless you have like a pocket third or something you can spore up on and pray you can get to plague/devourers. Other races have splash which shuts down muta/ling, but hydras are the only other early/mid game option and they are bad against them both since they only deal 1/2 damage. Zerg doesn't get air splash until late hive tech so you're forced into also making muta ling. If mutas were medium or large sized units then hydras would be much more viable. | ||
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines666 Posts
On April 02 2026 14:54 a-game wrote: No pro matches today, I'm going through withdrawal lol hit up the proleague thread and enter the endless void of pro matches | ||
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Simplistik
2131 Posts
I don't get it. | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 02 2026 19:49 Simplistik wrote: Can anyone shed some light on the tag line 'The First, The Last'? I don't get it. Someone asked it, too. I thought it was tongue in cheek act stupid moment how I missed it the first time. It is the first televised esports. It will probably be the last. You can watch group B. Artosis goes on about how smash and counterstrike are the only other games with a following audience. | ||
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SCRVN
179 Posts
On April 02 2026 19:49 Simplistik wrote: Can anyone shed some light on the tag line 'The First, The Last'? I don't get it. You have to get knowledge about Buddhism to know the great sentence. You can search The Egg - A Short Story, maybe it's helpful a little for you. In short, when you are happy your win games, it should you are happy your lose games as well. Actually, I can't do it but I can be sad when I lose and I can be sad when I win too. Regardless of trophy you get, you'll have to let go to keep living - The First, The Last and then The First, The Last. | ||
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parkin
1089 Posts
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Puosu
7015 Posts
On April 02 2026 19:49 Simplistik wrote: Can anyone shed some light on the tag line 'The First, The Last'? I don't get it. Let me speculate The last: ASL 21 will be the last ASL for StarCraft: Remastered (2017) The first: ASL 22 will be the first ASL for StarCraft: Microsoft Edition (2026) Would explain why they apparently reserved a larger finals venue for ASL 22. | ||
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8855 Posts
havent been paying attention to new releases apparently | ||
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6872 Posts
I doubt ASL is ending with this edition right ? lol | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 02 2026 20:06 mtcn77 wrote: Someone asked it, too. I thought it was tongue in cheek act stupid moment how I missed it the first time. It is the first televised esports. It will probably be the last. You can watch group B. Artosis goes on about how smash and counterstrike are the only other games with a following audience. At this point League of Legenda counts too. Its 15 years old and still one of the most popular esports. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 02 2026 23:48 evilfatsh1t wrote: what the heck is microsoft edition lol havent been paying attention to new releases apparently They are working on a mobile phone starcraft version at Microsoft | ||
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines666 Posts
On April 03 2026 01:13 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: They are working on a mobile phone starcraft version at Microsoft oh god no... the last thing i need is 50 apm zoomers lagging up the ladder with their wifi connections | ||
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TMNT
3158 Posts
On April 02 2026 19:49 Simplistik wrote: Can anyone shed some light on the tag line 'The First, The Last'? I don't get it. Actually it's the first, the final. I don't think it has any special meaning. Just some rather lame decoration the graphic designer wants to put in to signify the progress of the tournament, like "oh we're going from the first games of the tournament from Ro24 to the final" lol. I could totally be wrong but from my feeling from the time I lived in SK, some Koreans tend have a knack for that (lame, unnecessary taglines which they think sound cool in English) | ||
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triglo
13 Posts
My guess: Soma, Piano, Hero, Sharp Snow, YSC, Ssak, Light Bisu, Leta, Royal, Rain Barracks, Ample, Jaedong, Flash Then Soma switches Flash and Leta. | ||
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SCRVN
179 Posts
Group B: Snow, Piano, Hero, Rain Group C: Bisu, Leta, Flash, Jaedong Group D: Barracks, Ssak, Light, Sharp | ||
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goody153
44267 Posts
Especially Tulbo so that we get another protoss up and comer. Likely we would get a Flash vs Jaedong group tbqh just out of the group selection hype | ||
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TornadoSteve
1112 Posts
As for Leta, he looked solid. Ro8 is highly unlikely, but i can't remember if hes a good tvt player. PianO, i would love to see him advance. But how ? I can't believe. Don't forget Ample, sSak and especially Sharp... They are good TvsT player. I also hope that Barracks is practicing 'cuz he wasn't playing that great lately. I can see any of those 4 guys winning a bo3 tvst against sorry or even flash. | ||
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Terrorbladder
2729 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 03 2026 19:03 Terrorbladder wrote: I'm OOTL, what happened to Soulkey and Mini? eliminated. also about the groups. I think Rain is going to get picked MUCH earlier because he just isnt in great shape and not very active. Group A: Soma, YSC, Ample, Royal Group B: Snow, Piano, Hero, Rain Group C: Bisu, Leta, Flash, Jaedong Group D: Barracks, Ssak, Light, Sharp A: Soma, Leta, sSak, Jaedong B: SnOw, Ample, HerO, Royal C: Bisu, Piano, Sharp, Light D: Barracks, YSC, Rain, Flash Now I dont know who Leta will pick but I am throwing ssak into first pick 2nd round. Soma will swap Flash and HerO or Flash and Ample. I honestly think my groups are way off because they likely rate one another different than I do. Also I can see Ample pick Rain instead of HerO, which mean HerO will go to group D insteas of Rain because Piano will pick TvTs. | ||
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Miragee
8659 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States13996 Posts
On April 03 2026 19:03 Terrorbladder wrote: I'm OOTL, what happened to Soulkey and Mini? Mini didn't qualify, SK lost to ssak and ample in Ro24. | ||
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Miragee
8659 Posts
- Flash looked super impressive. It got annoying and stale before but after such a long break I'm able to admire his game sense, decision making and decisiveness again. unreal. - After countless times of Jaedong being hyped up beforehand for nothing, this time he actually looks very impressive again. I really enjoyed his games. Glad to see him in this form. - Queen is one of my favourite zergs but he did not perform well and knocked out Best with bs. No love this time. - I enjoyed the builds Piano brought but I thought Speed played much better. Sad to see him drop out. - Bo1 can be such a shit show. Best being knocked out by bs. Speed getting knocked out by bs. - tulbo and Leta both impressed me quite a bit. I did not expect this level of play from them. I don't agree with TornadoSteve at all about tulbo. He looks much more solid than previously imho. - 8/12 players advancing are terran. 9 terrans in the ro16 is not nice. This map pool is kinda disgusting. They did not learn from past mistakes making OP terran map pools... | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 03 2026 23:29 Miragee wrote: - I enjoyed the builds Piano brought but I thought Speed played much better. Sad to see him drop out. I did a 180 with my group E prediction. My terran blindness working as usual however I have a beef with that part. This is the first and only season I see terrans make good use of vultures. There have been some cases previously, but those were fantasy vulture plays. Speed does that. Yet, what defined this season was how effective new players make vultures vs siege tanks a solid play. I literally couldn't take my eyes from vultures picking off lone siege tanks with their spider mines. Also, my main beef with speed as with best vs queen that happened again this season: speed dropped rush like a sack of potatoes in season 19 when he landed a barracks right into the Command Center mineral field and disrupted rush with solid vulture play just with two vultures if I recall correct however against light he didn't last a second. Same with this season, he is good against rush, again, but not against higher tier players. People might have a beef with piano advancing on speed, however that is how mirror matchups are. Hero advanced on jaedong in season 15. That was also a heartbreak, but the winner was minute by minute ahead by a very small margin all game. | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 03 2026 01:10 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: At this point League of Legenda counts too. Its 15 years old and still one of the most popular esports. Artosis mentioned that too, how other games took updates and are not the original. League of Legends is Defense of the Ancients. One that I'm very interested in. | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On March 21 2026 17:10 GTR wrote: Game 1 and 2 - Octagon Winners and Losers - Last remaining map between Attitude, Match Point and Jane Doe Final - Last remaining map between Knockout, Neo Sylphid and Pole Star Something is very wrong with octagon. It is as if they wanted to make a map where cheese was impossible in early game. The map is so big, it is almost as if they wanted to make the clumsy armies sit in the middle while putting no expansions there making zerg advances into the middle of the map not technically possible. | ||
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Zografa
282 Posts
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seRapH
United States9806 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 04 2026 01:38 Zografa wrote: i just dont see how anyone but Flash is going to win this season, tell me if im wrong I can see SnOw take the season. He's back at rank #1 on eloboard and seems to be smashing. | ||
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polgas
Canada1776 Posts
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Miragee
8659 Posts
On April 04 2026 05:29 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: I can see SnOw take the season. He's back at rank #1 on eloboard and seems to be smashing. In before, Snow's Ro16 group will be Hero, JD, Rain. | ||
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WGT-Baal
France3476 Posts
On April 03 2026 09:22 TMNT wrote: Actually it's the first, the final. I don't think it has any special meaning. Just some rather lame decoration the graphic designer wants to put in to signify the progress of the tournament, like "oh we're going from the first games of the tournament from Ro24 to the final" lol. I could totally be wrong but from my feeling from the time I lived in SK, some Koreans tend have a knack for that (lame, unnecessary taglines which they think sound cool in English) You mean like ktf fingerbooms? But yeah I share your take. It s likely just poor English | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
Edit: seems it is today. Huzzah | ||
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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Zergxhx
China195 Posts
Poll: Who do you think Soma will choose first? Piano (2) Ysc (1) Ssak (1) Leta (0) Ample (0) 4 total votes Your vote: Who do you think Soma will choose first? (Vote): Leta | ||
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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Zergxhx
China195 Posts
But it seems that Soma will choose YSC | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:12 RowdierBob wrote: Soma can pull an awesome troll job at the end and put Bisu, JD and Flash in the same group. Would make me so sad haha | ||
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Zergxhx
China195 Posts
.... | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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Zografa
282 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:30 Zografa wrote: Bisu JD Flash in the same group is programmed I think i don’t understand the process, because that doesn’t seem logical to me. Flash ends up picked in group D and why would Soma swap players from groups C and D rather than someone from his own group? Or i am totally missing the point? | ||
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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Kespa1988
92 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
soma tulbo Sharp sSak Group B (14 april) Snow Piano Hero Rain Group C (20 april) Bisu Ample Jaedong Flash Group D (21 april) Rax Leta Royal Light | ||
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Zografa
282 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
![]() | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
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spets1
136 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:45 spets1 wrote: What was the swap from soma? Hero (from group A to B) <---> Sharp (from group B to his group - A ) | ||
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
Maybe he thought Soma would swap Flash and Ample every time if he did that? | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:44 RowdierBob wrote: Strange choice from Soma at the end there. Logic was to put Light into group C and take out 2 of Flash/JD/Bisu/Light I guess Soma just want to focus on making it out of his own group alive. | ||
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Simplistik
2131 Posts
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iFU.pauline
France1712 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:50 Biff The Understudy wrote: I am curious, why did JD pick Flash rather than Light? He is way more scary right now. Maybe he thought Soma would swap Flash and Ample every time if he did that? Coze it would have implied he feared Flash. Not JD style. | ||
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Simplistik
2131 Posts
The weather combo should make it as well. Maybe Bisu is the Protoss with the worst odds here? He will have to beat JD to go through I guess. Can't see him beat Flash in Bo3. Tough one. | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50898 Posts
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VioleTAK
4355 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13414 Posts
Snow, Rain Flash, Bisu Royal, Light B and C are tough. Can def see Hero or JD making it out too. | ||
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4257 Posts
what's the game 1 & 2 bo1 map for each group, btw? | ||
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Toshinou-Kyouko
Philippines602 Posts
also lmao snow probably got the easiest group of his life edit: predictions: A: Soma/Sharp B: Snow/Rain C: Flash/JD D: Light/Royal | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
On April 06 2026 21:35 VioleTAK wrote: I really don't like Bisu Flash and JD at the same group. Seeing the three of them together this ASL was a dream come true, but not in the Ro16... It'll be very cool, but far too soon. Was it you uploading videos on youtube in the late 2000’s? The nostalgia. | ||
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Miragee
8659 Posts
On April 04 2026 07:18 Miragee wrote: In before, Snow's Ro16 group will be Hero, JD, Rain. I posted this before (tongue in cheek) but 2/3 turned out to be correct... Not a great group for Snow. Group C is absurd, don't like it at all. I don't see Flash dropping out here, which means either Bisu oder JD will not make it to the Ro8. : / Both have the ability to beat Flash but the chances are slim after seeing Flash's play and considering the current map pool. | ||
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catplanetcatplanet
3836 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
I really hope JD does well. | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50898 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:44 prosatan wrote: Group A (13 april) soma tulbo Sharp sSak Group B (14 april) Snow Piano Hero Rain Group C (20 april) Bisu Ample Jaedong Flash Group D (21 april) Rax Leta Royal Light Predictizione: A: SoMa, sSak B: SnOw, HerO C: Bisu, Ample! (Bisu, Flash) D: Light, RoyaL | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
On April 06 2026 22:55 BLinD-RawR wrote: this isn't the first time Flash Jaedong and Bisu shared a group, they were in the Ro32 of ABCMart MSL back in 2011, only difference is that its Ample now instead of Sea in the 4th position. In a way, maybe it’s not that bad for Bisu or Jaedong if they intend to play the long game. They have to beat each other and then won’t worry about Flash until the finals. Maybe a better deal than encountering him in the Ro8. | ||
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Destroyer
Czech Republic949 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:44 RowdierBob wrote: Strange choice from Soma at the end there. Logic was to put Light into group C and take out 2 of Flash/JD/Bisu/Light He cannot swap first picks, only 2nd and 3rd. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
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Zografa
282 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
On April 06 2026 21:05 Simplistik wrote: I think tulbo has a chance to get out. The weather combo should make it as well. Maybe Bisu is the Protoss with the worst odds here? He will have to beat JD to go through I guess. Can't see him beat Flash in Bo3. Tough one. Haaaaaaaaaa!! weather combo !! Good one Simplistik !! ![]() | ||
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byj
511 Posts
![]() Let's hope JD makes it out! Looks like his Bo1 will be worth the same as a Bo3 if he were to lose Also looks like they put all big Os into group B hehe | ||
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Kaal
Djibouti2556 Posts
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seRapH
United States9806 Posts
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ThunderJunk
United States729 Posts
On April 06 2026 21:36 RowdierBob wrote: Soma, sharp Snow, Rain Flash, Bisu Royal, Light B and C are tough. Can def see Hero or JD making it out too. I think you're crazy to put 2 protoss over in a group against Hero. That guy's entire ASL career is built on the back of his ZvP. Even though Snow is the best Protoss, I don't think he beats Hero. I've seen Hero kill Bisu too many times over the years to ever doubt his ZvP. Piano ruined his ro24 group by knocking out players I like more than him. Flash is untouchable in TvT, though Ample showed some insane grit against Soulkey... makes me wonder. Bisu and Jaedong can both beat Flash on a good day. All three of them look like they're in great form - but the fact is that Flash is the heavy favorite in every tournament he enters. Between Jaedong and Bisu, I think Bisu does have an edge. | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 07 2026 02:59 byj wrote: Wtf is this Group C ![]() Let's hope JD makes it out! Looks like his Bo1 will be worth the same as a Bo3 if he were to lose Also looks like they put all big Os into group B hehe Yes, other pros will be jealous for the attendance to group C. They should arrange the stadium ahead of GF schedule. I think it might be a gentlemen's agreement to meet flash before the long series. Note, I haven't watched the group stages yet. I think, maybe JD was good because ASL21 JD vs Leta was the same as Hero vs JyJ ASL15. You get used to SK terran after a while. Pros need all the build order advantage they can get and intimidation is the best tool in their arsenal. 12 CC or some other opening works best when terran has set the fear of bunker rush in zerg. It works the opposite way if zerg knows terran will 2port. All this to say Flash still has an unblemished record this season, but it only works to his advantage if he risks it all in a 12CC and it works. Otherwise, when it is fair play, it is anybody's game. | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 06 2026 20:44 RowdierBob wrote: Strange choice from Soma at the end there. Logic was to put Light into group C and take out 2 of Flash/JD/Bisu/Light Oh, you don't get how zerg think... Soulkey did the same last season and it worked. Light might be terror to some, even Jaedong, but to S rank he is a nobody. Even JyJ is better on a good day. PS: nobody=slow/no mixup play. What makes Jaedong JvZ is he can win from behind, Flash FvT is the same. Light has yet to prove himself for once beating somebody and putting the fear of it all being catchup play. Good players don't deal their hand until after their opponents assume victory and begin to slip up. This ties to Bisu, for Bisu has tendencies to play like optimiser Mini these last seasons. Mini can fall apart like Royal sometimes as much as I like him. Optimisers don't fall out of grace all too well. | ||
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Zografa
282 Posts
So a group of Bisu Light JD Flash was impossible, Soma could swap only JD or Flash | ||
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mutantmagnet
United States3796 Posts
On April 06 2026 21:13 BLinD-RawR wrote: Sucks to be Bisu and Ample Bro. Have we been watching different games in this past pro league and ASL combined? Bisu is at level of form that firmly places his relative performance to the field in a given season as a guaranteed top 4 placer. Flash especially and JD slightly should be more worried than Bisu getting a top 4 placement. | ||
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machinus
United States292 Posts
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TornadoSteve
1112 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45762 Posts
I wonder how Ample feels. | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7870 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45762 Posts
On April 07 2026 09:31 Vasoline73 wrote: As epic as group C is... I think it sucks to have to lose 1, possibly 2 of Flash/JD/Bisu so early... NOT COOL! ![]() Definitely agree. | ||
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TonDan04
33 Posts
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byj
511 Posts
On April 07 2026 10:33 TonDan04 wrote: how come bisu is in this? He got seeded from last ASL | ||
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Lazyer
United States371 Posts
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CHEONSOYUN
574 Posts
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FaZ-
United States188 Posts
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Grettin
42394 Posts
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spets1
136 Posts
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4257 Posts
Well done. | ||
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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BisuDagger
Bisutopia19343 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
On April 08 2026 02:19 BisuDagger wrote: Bisu is in a much better situation this time then he was last time he was in the group of death. Back then he was definitely not strong enough in individual competition to advance. He's quite strong lately and has a good ro16 record. Cope. Get the Bisu bucket out. | ||
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seRapH
United States9806 Posts
Flash and JD are advancing. | ||
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines666 Posts
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6872 Posts
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Zografa
282 Posts
On April 09 2026 02:30 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: Bisu is looking really solid pvz. his PvT is weak tho. But proly good enough to beat Ample. Jaedong insane peak is gone and his form is not as brilliant as past weeks. But i think he should advance second. Not worth saying shit about FlaSh. Guy doesnt even play proleague he is solely focused in ASL. bisu is really top in pvz, i see Bisu>Ample, Flash>JD, Flash>Bisu, JD>Ample, Bisu>JD as the standard in this group with JD advancing if he has a good day(he can even beat flash in bo1) | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 09 2026 02:30 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: Bisu is looking really solid pvz. his PvT is weak tho. But proly good enough to beat Ample. Jaedong insane peak is gone and his form is not as brilliant as past weeks. But i think he should advance second. Not worth saying shit about FlaSh. Guy doesnt even play proleague he is solely focused in ASL. One thing I don't see eye to eye with everyone else around here is how bisu played pvz on RC last season. That entire game should have not be casted like those long pauses when there was nothing to say and the writing was on the wall. These bigger maps in this season give me 76 vibes although we have yet to see a terran take that route apart from 2port Leta. Good thing terrans have consistency with their vultures this season like I'm beginning to understand their meta as how it is supposed to be, it seems terran is harder than it already is to play like the other races. This is the first season terran wins on midgame risky play as a solid alternative to midgame pushes that go on and on with no ending with the other side giving up due to economy. Tesagi got terran to be less boring, what do you know. | ||
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Trizz
Netherlands1323 Posts
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Miragee
8659 Posts
On April 10 2026 04:28 Trizz wrote: Does anyone know where you can find betting odds? Trying to host a play-money betting event for fun on discord but I can't find anything on it. I think this is because sports betting is illegal in South Korea, appart from a few exceptions. And I doubt there is a market for BW betting outside of South Korea. | ||
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SCRVN
179 Posts
On April 03 2026 11:11 SCRVN wrote: Group A: Soma, YSC, Ample, Royal Group B: Snow, Piano, Hero, Rain Group C: Bisu, Leta, Flash, Jaedong Group D: Barracks, Ssak, Light, Sharp Basically, I guess 100% correct about race in every group. Let me explain why I can do it. 1. Soma never allows that there is more than 1 Zerg in his group because he knows Zerg is the best. 2. Soma would pick up a Protoss. In the highest level, Protoss can't beat Zerg by any way but Terran can do a little from BBS or timing push from 2 bases. 3. Snow and Bisu would pick up Terran so they are very strong at PvT. And then the Terrans would choose Zerg to revenge them. 4. Barracks had no players to choose, he would pick up a Terran. 5. Flash would choose Jaedong and Jaedong would choose Flash. They think they can beat each other and they should have to do it. and 1. I didn't notice Sharp is the worst player in TvZ. 2. I was wrong about Bisu, he chose Ample instead of Leta who is the weakest player in TvP. | ||
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Bonyth
Poland598 Posts
On April 10 2026 04:28 Trizz wrote: Does anyone know where you can find betting odds? Trying to host a play-money betting event for fun on discord but I can't find anything on it. https://www.twitch.tv/terrorterran not sure what are the maximum bets u can put though. And not sure if bets cannot be made only live. As for more pro websites, dont have any information. | ||
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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haegN
Norway546 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 10 2026 20:58 haegN wrote: Tastosis just ignored the group selection or what is going on there? Delayed release probably | ||
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IntoTheEmo
Singapore1170 Posts
On April 10 2026 20:58 haegN wrote: Tastosis just ignored the group selection or what is going on there? I swapped to StarCast for the last few seasons but I think for Tastosis - based on the feedback they got, people like hard subs, so while they can't hard sub normal game interviews because they wanna push the games out ASAP, they hard sub the group selection process so people get the 100% undiluted version of what the players are saying. That takes time, so the group selection video comes out a bit later. You can check their old group selection videos, they should be on the channel. | ||
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haegN
Norway546 Posts
On April 11 2026 00:01 IntoTheEmo wrote: I swapped to StarCast for the last few seasons but I think for Tastosis - based on the feedback they got, people like hard subs, so while they can't hard sub normal game interviews because they wanna push the games out ASAP, they hard sub the group selection process so people get the 100% undiluted version of what the players are saying. That takes time, so the group selection video comes out a bit later. You can check their old group selection videos, they should be on the channel. Ahh yeah I see! Guess the approach here is to check out the groups result and then watch for context later, thanks for reply. | ||
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nimdil
Poland3756 Posts
SCRVN wrote: 5. Flash would choose Jaedong and Jaedong would choose Flash. They think they can beat each other and they should have to do it. honestly I'm not sure if Jaedong believes he can consistently beat Flash. what I got from group selection is more of a Nakamura v Carlsen vibe - challenge yes, clearly the other one is better but I love playing him anyway because that means playing the best. | ||
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Hot_Bid
Braavos36399 Posts
1. i don't think its very likely flash and bisu/jd meet in a bo7 anyway, so this way we get to see them play 2. id rather guarantee 1-2 of them get out to ro8 than 0, though lets be honest flash is almost certainly advancing, the bo1 stage was the most dangerous portion for him 3. i think if we're going to see an upset between these three, this stage is where it has to happen, i just think its so unlikely anyone beats flash in a bo7 | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7870 Posts
On April 11 2026 07:34 Hot_Bid wrote: i actually really like group C, for three main reasons: 1. i don't think its very likely flash and bisu/jd meet in a bo7 anyway, so this way we get to see them play 2. id rather guarantee 1-2 of them get out to ro8 than 0, though lets be honest flash is almost certainly advancing, the bo1 stage was the most dangerous portion for him 3. i think if we're going to see an upset between these three, this stage is where it has to happen, i just think its so unlikely anyone beats flash in a bo7 Hot_Bid! I feel like I've not seen your name in forever. Cheers man, always enjoyed your articles. Good points regarding group C... at least we get some Bo3 unlike old OSL/MSL ro16 groups of death | ||
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doktordingerdonger
76 Posts
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Vasoline73
United States7870 Posts
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Hot_Bid
Braavos36399 Posts
On April 11 2026 11:58 doktordingerdonger wrote: ![]() ample is going to advance because you posted this just watch, he looked good in the ro24... | ||
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
On April 11 2026 11:58 doktordingerdonger wrote: ![]() ![]() | ||
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digmouse
China6331 Posts
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parkin
1089 Posts
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polgas
Canada1776 Posts
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8855 Posts
On April 13 2026 15:10 polgas wrote: Ooh tough choice for JD. Between the 2, Light is arguably tougher than Flash. i dont think its arguable at all. 10/10 opponents would rather face light than flash if winning was the only consideration | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 13 2026 15:10 polgas wrote: Ooh tough choice for JD. Between the 2, Light is arguably tougher than Flash. I don't understand people calling Light hard. That is like calling best hard. Players who can only macro are the lowest of the low for their races. | ||
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8855 Posts
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 13 2026 16:36 evilfatsh1t wrote: imagine calling light the lowest of the low of all terrans. your starcraft knowledge never ceases to amaze me Tell me, what has Light achieved lately, apart from eliminating Jaedong in ASL19 quarterfinals? This is really the way I see it, it could go either way this time... | ||
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goody153
44267 Posts
Flash is likely pulling up but i hope Jaedong carries his form this r16 | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 14 2026 14:28 goody153 wrote: Flash and Jaedong wanting to play each other is so peak ngl. They actually giving what the audience wants since they may not meet in the finals but at least they have a chance to play each other once Flash is likely pulling up but i hope Jaedong carries his form this r16 Old timers really carry the scene forward. No cowardly nonsense, I'm talking about you Soulkey & Soma. I get teary when I'm thinking of Leta and Piano and how lucky we have been to experience all Starcraft can be. You guys are the best. PS: I hope for the day someone will reinvent protoss with your no reverse gear play. | ||
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
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vndestiny
Singapore3455 Posts
On April 15 2026 08:18 a-game wrote: Group of death tonight, hypuuuu Next week . Round of 16 is only 2 groups per week. | ||
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
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doubleupgradeobbies!
Australia1285 Posts
On April 14 2026 15:47 mtcn77 wrote: Old timers really carry the scene forward. No cowardly nonsense, I'm talking about you Soulkey & Soma. I get teary when I'm thinking of Leta and Piano and how lucky we have been to experience all Starcraft can be. You guys are the best. PS: I hope for the day someone will reinvent protoss with your no reverse gear play. Wait, isn't soulkey also an old timer? Is this a different soulkey from Neo.G_Soulkey? | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 15 2026 16:16 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote: Wait, isn't soulkey also an old timer? Is this a different soulkey from Neo.G_Soulkey? I call them out on their groupstage shenanigans. Look at flash bisu jaedong in a single group and ample making it all happen. TL;DR: there is a funny moment that is repeatedly played out one after another in humourous fashion throughout the groupstage selection ceremony. Ample knocked out soulkey and therefore he said why stop at one, I'll knock out 2 ASL champions and selected jaedong out of the blue. Bisu was in shatters, "I should have picked Leta". It was really funny how every tier 4 did the same thing. It is like they bring ladder mentality or something. Soma could only stop tulbo and hero's group of death pick by calling them out on their bluff, "Look if you pick flash, you aren't getting out of this group". | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 15 2026 16:52 mtcn77 wrote: I call them out on their groupstage shenanigans. Look at flash bisu jaedong in a single group and ample making it all happen. TL;DR: there is a funny moment that is repeatedly played out one after another in humourous fashion throughout the groupstage selection ceremony. Ample knocked out soulkey and therefore he said why stop at one, I'll knock out 2 ASL champions and selected jaedong out of the blue. Bisu was in shatters, "I should have picked Leta". It was really funny how every tier 4 did the same thing. It is like they bring ladder mentality or something. Soma could only stop tulbo and hero's group of death pick by calling them out on their bluff, "Look if you pick flash, you aren't getting out of this group". Note that last time Ample was in ASL, he knocked Bisu out in the Round of 16. Ample is known for knocking favorites out of the ASL, against all odds and expectations. | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 15 2026 20:46 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Note that last time Ample was in ASL, he knocked Bisu out in the Round of 16. Ample is known for knocking favorites out of the ASL, against all odds and expectations. Oh yeah, it all began with ample teasing bisu, "Didn't I beat you once before?" and bisu tried to call his bluff. Ample did what he does best. | ||
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fLyiNgDroNe
Belgium4080 Posts
Going to be the perfectly balanced Ro8 - 3-3-2 race distribution | ||
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6872 Posts
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VGhost
United States3618 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
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Zografa
282 Posts
On April 17 2026 03:16 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: I already placed my liquibets on Jaedong but i think he looking really bad for Monday. I think the FlaSh /Bisu is the most likely outcome. +1 watched his recent PL and Escore tournaments - his form is really bad, lets hope is just some shanageans before the big week but i doubt it... | ||
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Smorrie
Netherlands2932 Posts
I'd say he's in pretty solid form right now, just not as dominant. His baseline isn't perfect and he still drops games but his ability to peak is clearly present in his current form. His mindset seems in a good place as well, he just has to peak at the right moment. Taking all of that into consideration I'd say he won't make it into the Ro8 as per usual. | ||
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Zografa
282 Posts
On April 18 2026 05:26 Smorrie wrote: 3-4 weeks ago his form was referred 'unstoppable'.. 2 weeks ago 'JvZ' was the flavor of the week. Now his form is bad again because he's been dropping some games. You're as good as your last performance I guess. I'd say he's in pretty solid form right now, just not as dominant. His baseline isn't perfect and he still drops games but his ability to peak is clearly present in his current form. His mindset seems in a good place as well, he just has to peak at the right moment. Taking all of that into consideration I'd say he won't make it into the Ro8 as per usual. 3-4 weeks ago, he literally went like 1 month with 75% winrate(beating light in bo7 etc), now he is like 50% tops, losing games(yes games, more than 1) to players that never played proleague etc feels really different | ||
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6872 Posts
On April 18 2026 18:53 Zografa wrote: 3-4 weeks ago, he literally went like 1 month with 75% winrate(beating light in bo7 etc), now he is like 50% tops, losing games(yes games, more than 1) to players that never played proleague etc feels really different You seems to be very passionate about Jaedong Encore results tho. By that metric every pro is doing poor lol. My feedback has been from watching proleagues and sponsored practise games he has been playing. He is doing poor recently. Bisu on the contrary has been a ''knife'' in pvz but no so good at TvP. So we will see how that goes. Cuz if Bisu actually fail to beat Ample and he meet JD at losers then this group will be onfire. | ||
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Zografa
282 Posts
On April 18 2026 19:08 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: You seems to be very passionate about Jaedong Encore results tho. By that metric every pro is doing poor lol. My feedback has been from watching proleagues and sponsored practise games he has been playing. He is doing poor recently. Bisu on the contrary has been a ''knife'' in pvz but no so good at TvP. So we will see how that goes. Cuz if Bisu actually fail to beat Ample and he meet JD at losers then this group will be onfire. sure, if we look at proleague only results JDs last 2 weeks - 45% winrate(20 games, 3/6 in zvp, 1/3 zvt), bisu - 67%(30 games - 16/4 in pvz, 3/2 in pvt), flash did not play any proleague but i think we can fairly say he is a clear fav vs both JD and bisu | ||
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6872 Posts
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Hot_Bid
Braavos36399 Posts
edit: hopium? TT | ||
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Kespa1988
92 Posts
it is very possible poor results in non ASL matches simply means holding builds / focus / map strategies and practicing specifically for group c... edit: hopium? TT There is quite a lot on the table during ProLeauge, especially was on thursday so that would be quite stupid, not to try ur best in front of your team. Im here with eon on this. Bisu is in really good shape, he destroyed JD twice last week, once in super ace, leaving no doubts who is in better shape. Flash will prepared as he didnt participate in any PL for last week. And yet JD who lost twice with some C players in Escore in first round and playing poorly in PL. I dont see him advancing... | ||
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States13996 Posts
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6872 Posts
![]() If Soma somehow beat Hero then a Soma vs FlaSH final will be a dream. But knowing how weak he is at zvz vs a zerg specialist is gonna be hard. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
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seRapH
United States9806 Posts
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Zergxhx
China195 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
On April 22 2026 02:14 FlaShFTW wrote: Soma got his absolutely worst possible draw. Hero's ZvZ is quite good. Agree 100% ! Soma is most afraid of zvz.. | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7870 Posts
On April 22 2026 02:53 Zergxhx wrote: Why are you guy so optimistic about Flash? I think he'll really suffer a crushing defeat against Snow this time, just like ASL5. Snow’s gonna get rekt. No 3rd World for him to fall back on. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
On April 22 2026 02:53 Zergxhx wrote: Why are you guy so optimistic about Flash? I think he'll really suffer a crushing defeat against Snow this time, just like ASL5. Map pool is really good for Terran this season. Only the 2p maps will be a struggle for FlaSh and I'm sure he will prep something really stupid on those maps to catch Snow offguard. Very different from ASL5. | ||
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Kraekkling
654 Posts
soma > flash for finals pls if soma manages to break gods ankles on this map pool and defend his title we'd have a really cool storyline | ||
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art_of_turtle
United States1206 Posts
On April 22 2026 02:04 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: My predictions. ![]() If Soma somehow beat Hero then a Soma vs FlaSH final will be a dream. But knowing how weak he is at zvz vs a zerg specialist is gonna be hard. A man of tulbo culture | ||
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CHEONSOYUN
574 Posts
On April 22 2026 02:14 FlaShFTW wrote: Soma got his absolutely worst possible draw. Hero's ZvZ is quite good. soma has the easier side of the brackets to finals | ||
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SCRVN
179 Posts
soma < HERO Leta > tulbo JD > Light SnOw > FlaSh HERO > Leta JD > SnOw JD < HERO | ||
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Sirris17
11 Posts
On April 22 2026 11:19 SCRVN wrote: This season is the easiest guess in ASL's history ever. soma < HERO Leta > tulbo JD > Light SnOw > FlaSh HERO > Leta JD > SnOw JD < HERO Are you trolling? Serious question | ||
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Sirris17
11 Posts
So you think tulbo is better at pvt than best...interesting haha | ||
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
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TMNT
3158 Posts
On April 22 2026 16:18 Sirris17 wrote: So you think tulbo is better at pvt than best...interesting haha Leta beating Best is a one-off, an upset, not the norm. Tulbo > Leta in general level in this matchup. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5120 Posts
On April 22 2026 16:32 a-game wrote: They really should have arranged the matchups to avoid mirrors Why? For your convenience? This is a tournament. If you can't win in a mirror, you're not the best. You reek of entitlement. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
Ro8 seems a toss up for each. SoMa vs HerO is Soma favored, but HerO can take it. Tulbo vs Leta is Tulbo favored, but Leta can take it. Jaedong vs Light is Light favored and i give JD the lowest odds to make it to Ro4. SnOw vs FlaSh is SnOw favored, but by a hair. In online SnOw has played the best vs FlaSh by a mile compared to everyone else. But maybe Flash's offline killer instincts actually give him an edge. Cant call this one. Flash has a negative online winrate vs only 2 players since his return. SnOw at 42%, and Light at 28%, but vs Light the Sample size is too small to be statistically relevant. This makes SnOw the one real threat to FlaSh. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5120 Posts
On April 22 2026 18:28 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Little bit of luck for Leta with how group D became all TvT. All TvT likely the only group he could have made it out of. TvZ and TvP are the MUs his weaknesses are much more evident. Kind of how PianO also made it through his Ro24 group. Also Light losing his first match in Ro16 was Leta's saving grace. I feel he likely would not have made it through if he had Light in that Bo3 winner match. Ro8 seems a toss up for each. SoMa vs HerO is Soma favored, but HerO can take it. Tulbo vs Leta is Tulbo favored, but Leta can take it. Jaedong vs Light is Light favored and i give JD the lowest odds to make it to Ro4. SnOw vs FlaSh is SnOw favored, but by a hair. In online SnOw has played the best vs FlaSh by a mile compared to everyone else. But maybe Flash's offline killer instincts actually give him an edge. Cant call this one. Flash has a negative online winrate vs only 2 players since his return. SnOw at 42%, and Light at 28%, but vs Light the Sample size is too small to be statistically relevant. This makes SnOw the one real threat to FlaSh. Ususally I'd agreewith your assessment of Jaedong vs Light, but Light's been in a bit of a funk and I think he'll flounder here. | ||
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polgas
Canada1776 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 22 2026 18:42 Uldridge wrote: Ususally I'd agreewith your assessment of Jaedong vs Light, but Light's been in a bit of a funk and I think he'll flounder here. Light still hanging in top 5 on Eloboard. On the other hand Jaedong got blasted down to losing 1-4 to speed. But then again Speed is a top 3 TvZ player in online settings behind only FlaSh and Light. Speed is 9-3 vs Jaedong over their last 12 games. Speed also blasted Hero 7-2 recently. Jaedong 33:46 Speed total record. Jaedong 68:164 Light total record. Light is Jaedongs worst match statistically. Yes even worse than FlaSh. | ||
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
On April 22 2026 18:07 Uldridge wrote: Why? For your convenience? This is a tournament. If you can't win in a mirror, you're not the best. You reek of entitlement. Because mirrors are boring and the trophy would be just as prestigious if the quarterfinal was Soma vs Light or Flash Like damn we had too much mirror already in the ro16/ro24 | ||
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
It's up to Light if he is going to win or lose next match, not JD. Light has 2 weeks to muster his peak form, he shouldn't need it yet for JD, but it will be helpful if he is already on the way to it. It comes down to whether Light believes he has a fair shot against Flash/Snow if he's more practiced. For the story I hope Light will just wing it so JD is more likely to win and we either see Snow/Flash/JD in the final vs Soma (or Leta). Tbh confident Leta vs JD/Flash would be such a banger. Soma brings little entertainment value imo. Also the Potential ZvZ finals will be so lame after what Ro4 with the Dong will give us. | ||
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Smorrie
Netherlands2932 Posts
ASL has been the pinnacle of modern day BW.. and the Ro8 is where the tournament really gets serious. It only happens twice a year, it's the most prestigious tournament to win and the format should really reflect the gravity and level of prestige it carries. Keep it special :< Hopefully they'll reconsider this for future seasons. | ||
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10391 Posts
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Smorrie
Netherlands2932 Posts
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Kespa1988
92 Posts
Tulbo vs Leta. I would say that Leta is more prepared for this tournament and seems like he is more determined, not that im saying he is better, on the other hand Tulbo who trapped his dts and still win... I would say Leta will win this. JD vs Light. JD is really in good shape, he has his momentum, he seems to be practicing much more than usual, but Light tvz is so solid... and he has been his nemesis for quite long, as much as I want JD to advance, Light is in favor. Flash vs Snow. As long as I want Snow to be prepared and do some cool builds, 84% ration of Flash tvp is something you cant ignore... So if it will not rain that day, Flash is in huge favor. | ||
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a-game
Canada5173 Posts
On April 22 2026 23:46 Smorrie wrote: What a shame to see the Ro8 moving from bo7 to bo5. ASL has been the pinnacle of modern day BW.. and the Ro8 is where the tournament really gets serious. It only happens twice a year, it's the most prestigious tournament to win and the format should really reflect the gravity and level of prestige it carries. Keep it special :< Hopefully they'll reconsider this for future seasons. I would be fine with bo3 quarterfinals and semifinals. The ASL prize pool is tiny compared to Dota. It's great to have ASL but working these (old) players like slaves for a few dollars isn't optimal IMO. Like it's 2k for bronze medal, how are you supposed to live off that for 6 months lol | ||
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Smorrie
Netherlands2932 Posts
In that sense ASL is much like the Olympics; the most prestigious tournament to win for many sports, with very little financial incentives. Even though winning will likely gain athletes quite some popularity and in turns also more profitable sponsorship deals. Playing the Superbowl half-time show would be another example, perceived as one of the most premium shows to play, requiring a lot of prep, while the performers aren't receiving any appearance fees. Most pros are grinding daily proleague, spons and stream to generate additional income. I have no idea about their financial status but I'm sure the highest tier of players have made plenty of bank. They play ASL for its prestige, the love of the game and to keep the scene alive. Nobody is bound to any teams or larger contracts and they even get manually seeded in the qualifier tournaments so the popular players end up making the Ro24. | ||
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byj
511 Posts
![]() On April 22 2026 19:09 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Light is Jaedongs worst match statistically. Yes even worse than FlaSh. He will overcome it and win this ASL, trust | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7870 Posts
Leta > YSC JD > Light Flash > Snow Soma > Leta JD > Flash (hope I’m wrong here) Soma =? JD (seems like a coinflip to me, both have killer instinct) | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50898 Posts
I felt like it always added more weight to map selection going into a series. | ||
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M2
Bulgaria4161 Posts
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CHEONSOYUN
574 Posts
BO7 shows full preparation, and if you have it in RO8 then players have less special builds to show in RO4 and finals | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50898 Posts
On April 23 2026 15:11 M2 wrote: Do we realize that either Leta or Tulbo will be seeded for the next ASL xD whoever wins deserves it, they made it that far. | ||
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines666 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8701 Posts
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4257 Posts
On April 23 2026 16:14 Crimson)S(hadow wrote: i preferred older format of all bo7 for ro8 and above Same. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
in ASL19 Queen would have beaten Best in ro8 3-1 and Best would not have made it to the finals. And these Best vs Queen and Best vs Light sets are widely considered 2 of the best sets in ASL history. If we still had bo5 semi SnOw would have defeated Soulkey 3-2 in ASL19 Semifinals and would likely have been the champion. | ||
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TMNT
3158 Posts
The only valid reasons for smaller Bo are organisation purposes and player fatigue | ||
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Peeano
Netherlands5467 Posts
Bo5 rewards prep Bo7 rewards prep and stamina Bo9 forget it, these dudes are too old for that Bo5/Bo7 makes you show your hand early, it sucks when you have to play the same match up back to back. It helped Larva get his gold. | ||
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GTR
51589 Posts
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines666 Posts
On April 23 2026 21:05 Peeano wrote: Bo3 rewards prep and luck Bo5 rewards prep Bo7 rewards prep and stamina Bo9 forget it, these dudes are too old for that Bo5/Bo7 makes you show your hand early, it sucks when you have to play the same match up back to back. It helped Larva get his gold. i wouldn’t say their too old for bo9, they play ultimate battle every week which is basically a bo9 that goes to the final game every set. in asl there would be ad breaks too, but in UBE its pretty much all in one go | ||
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m4ch1n1cd351r3
16 Posts
Splendid play from Jaedong, some of the best Starcraft I can remember seeing. Inspiring. That being said, ZvZzzzz and Leta vs YSChuttulbeyewater are not really piquing the interest too much. Only really intrigued by Light vs Jaedong. Wonder if Light will play any pure SK Terran or not. | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1219 Posts
On April 23 2026 23:48 m4ch1n1cd351r3 wrote: Disappointed not to have Rain, Sharp, or Royal moving on. Minus soma, all my favorite players are out. Splendid play from Jaedong, some of the best Starcraft I can remember seeing. Inspiring. That being said, ZvZzzzz and Leta vs YSChuttulbeyewater are not really piquing the interest too much. Only really intrigued by Light vs Jaedong. Wonder if Light will play any pure SK Terran or not. FlaSH vs SnOw??? | ||
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sM.Zik
Canada2552 Posts
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Kanzzer
50 Posts
On April 22 2026 18:28 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote: Jaedong vs Light is Light favored and i give JD the lowest odds to make it to Ro4. SnOw vs FlaSh is SnOw favored, but by a hair. In online SnOw has played the best vs FlaSh by a mile compared to everyone else. But maybe Flash's offline killer instincts actually give him an edge. Cant call this one. Flash has a negative online winrate vs only 2 players since his return. SnOw at 42%, and Light at 28%, but vs Light the Sample size is too small to be statistically relevant. This makes SnOw the one real threat to FlaSh. I pulled head to head record between JD & Light from eloboard Light vs JD 7 Neo Sylphid 2 (these may include older games) 3 Knockout 3 0 Match Point 1 3 Attitude 2 1 Octagon 3 2 Jane Doe 1 5 Polestar 3 (these may include older games) Light vs JD Bo7 set on StarcastTV played on March 11 + Show Spoiler + Light took Sylphid, Polestar (close spawn 8 rax) & Jane Doe JD took Octagon, Attitude (close spawn 5 pool), Match Point & Knockout (unpunished close spawn 12 Hatch) JD won 4-3 ------------------------------------------------------------ SnOw and FlaSh from eloboard SnOw vs FlaSh 1 Neo Sylphid 0 0 Knockout 1 1 Death Valley 0 2 Deja Vu 1 2 Dominator 2 5 Radeon 4 1 Match Point 0 3 Metropolis 1 0 Kickback 1 0 Pantheon 1 1 Polestar 1 StarcastTV record (timestamp 22:23 & 1:10:51) + Show Spoiler + SnOw vs FlaSh L Jane Doe W W Octagon L (DT rush) Both matchups I think are really neck and neck. Both could go either way to be honest. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
On April 23 2026 15:11 M2 wrote: Do we realize that either Leta or Tulbo will be seeded for the next ASL xD That’s quite funny | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
I also dislike Bo7. Bo7 lets you switch the meta and literally play with no opening in mind. This let many defending champions fare better than their contemporary form by playing the series like 1v1 KCM race survival series. This only works if they met the first time. If they know their styles, they run out of openings. If they have a Bo7, it should be a Bo5 next time. Bo3 the one after if they meet at 3 Ro4's in succession. | ||
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Simplistik
2131 Posts
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CHEONSOYUN
574 Posts
every match could be a finals | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 24 2026 14:31 Simplistik wrote: I find the Ro8 matches super hard to call this season. Let's hope that means we get some close series! I have deep respect to anyone calling anything before, or after Ro24 this season. This season's map pool has stripped me of any and all assumptions. | ||
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goody153
44267 Posts
Tulbo or Leta is gonna make it to the semi finals lmao that's gonna be fun flash vs snow and jd vs light sounds really really fun. On April 23 2026 15:55 BLinD-RawR wrote: whoever wins deserves it, they made it that far. Indeed they did. They played their heart out and beat the shit out of others. If others were better they wouldnt have won | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8072 Posts
So looking forward a Flash vs Jaedong Ro4 though… | ||
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Malinor
Germany4737 Posts
Jaedong vs Light I don't know much about current bw anymore, but back in the ol' days, Light had a good record against Jaedong (11-12) but fell short in all BoX series they played. This is forever ago, but back then the feeling was that Light simply does not have it in the highest pressure moments. Given that Jaedongs death stare is back, I think he will beat him. Flash vs Snow Snow probably has the best shot out of everyone to take down Flash, but I cannot see it happening. Flash is just so solid and if he deals with the inevitable Reaver harass well enough in 3 out of 5 games, he should outlast Snow. I think Bo5 is very good for the Ro8 and I probably prefer that format in Brood War. Bo5s are just extremely exciting. Statistically a Bo7 basically makes sure that the better player (read: the better player on that day) wins in nearly all case. Comebacks in Bo7s are extremely rare. When it happens, it is something everyone remembers for a very long time, but for me that is not worth the trade-off for the excitment Bo5s bring. Bo9 does not add significantly to the better player advancing. I did the math a decade ago, maybe I am wrong. But watching a Bo9 is just a drag anyway and it loses its appeal very fast. Regarding the Ro16 Group C. As a livelong Jaedong fan I obviously enjoyed what I saw. It also felt like very decent BroodWar was played compared to the golden era (~2007-2011). What gives me hope is that I haven't seen Jaedong this focussed since 2009. His demeanor during the matches was so old school and why I fell in love with his play before I knew he was one of the best players of his time. On the other side, I feel a Bo7 TvZ against Flash is basically impossible to win nowadays, Flashs play is just so dominant. I am 90% sure we will see the match, it feels like destiny that Snow and Light will lose in the Ro8. That was a quick tour through my recent thoughts. | ||
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KobraKay
Portugal4285 Posts
On April 22 2026 02:04 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: My predictions. ![]() If Soma somehow beat Hero then a Soma vs FlaSH final will be a dream. But knowing how weak he is at zvz vs a zerg specialist is gonna be hard. I support this prediction. Looks about what i would say, i just have slightly more faith in Leta to beat tulbo | ||
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Ideas
United States8169 Posts
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mtcn77
Turkey695 Posts
On April 25 2026 22:49 Ideas wrote: This ASL is awesome so far. Leta playing so well is such a huge surprise to me though. I didn't even know he was very active but I guess I dont pay much attention to Kleague. It's too bad that the brackets are so lopsided though (hard to see soma not making it through to finals). Both Hero and Soma like to play down and dirty. Soma has good theory, but he isn't a good planner. Both can skip early game scouting although I give +1 to Hero at that. I think Hero has the stamina to challenge Soma. Even in ASL15, he performed better than Soulkey ever did, it was the most amazing sets between Hero and JyJ. I liken the field to way back ASL15. Hero is still the underdog, but he has the grit to continue. Let's hope he does, I really root for him. He is the most cryptic zerg this season. He doesn't push games, he just does a bisu timing attack every game and hope for a win. | ||
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VioleTAK
4355 Posts
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Toshinou-Kyouko
Philippines602 Posts
On April 26 2026 11:41 VioleTAK wrote: The very possible tragedy of JD reaching the finals is that it would likely be a ZvZ 😔 On the flipside, Soma would pretty much love to fight his idol JD in the grand finals. I would love to see that happen. | ||
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines666 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States13996 Posts
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BoesFX
1464 Posts
On April 28 2026 06:06 Cricketer12 wrote: I really need to not let yall sway my liquibets because I got today wrong after reading this thread lmao. Hahaha, that's why I only followed my guts, so that I can only blame my stubbornness when I eventually mess up. | ||
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SCRVN
179 Posts
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Simplistik
2131 Posts
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polgas
Canada1776 Posts
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines666 Posts
On April 28 2026 11:55 Simplistik wrote: I don't really know where the herO ZvZ specialist thing came from. Has that ever actually been the case? i wouldn't say there has been a ZvZ specialist since JvZ, but historically hero usually did well in ZvZ, though clearly his best matchup is ZvP his ASL wins: ASL4 Hero 3-2 Soulkey ASL4 Hero 3-2 Larva ASL 11 Hero 3-2 Zero ASL12 Hero 3-1 Zero ASL15 Hero 3-0 Jaedong Losses but put up impressive fight: asl14 2-3 soulkey asl17 3-4 soulkey i thought hero would put up more of a fight, he looked like he was getting his form back with a 4-kill proleague MVP performance on april 11th, and another 4-1 MVP performance on the 15th. soma was also losing a lot of practice games in ZvZ when I watched his stream, but I guess he snapped back into form right on time dunno what happened to hero, maybe nervousness, pressure, overtraining, overthinking. maybe bisu was right in the ASL group selection when he said "something's wrong with hero lately" | ||
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6872 Posts
I guess offline is something we really didnt count as a factor :D . But i wouldnt say hero is a bad offline player either. Afterall he was making semis in a very consistent manner. | ||
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Miragee
8659 Posts
On April 28 2026 11:55 Simplistik wrote: I don't really know where the herO ZvZ specialist thing came from. Has that ever actually been the case? That has never been the case. He has always been a ZvP specialist. | ||
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![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/8jO8QD5.png)
Rain got in, but then I saw his qualifier group. What a joke.
Flash also had an easy one, but not like he needed that.
Calm did it again? Wow... He really is brainy, huh?![[image loading]](https://i.namu.wiki/i/gimcXacipw6dfYGf0nESwo9myXKC_CppGn4T8KSXcc_QxOHbNkLA0mRdgIZLQWP_ocYxn1rykziK9SgXFlrAfY-w4JvoK5pUYkjbbpUBwiAAo8KydmrOTY0tZZuvh_E8POYcgEGfu67dFZ8Xl_bS5F2ytvephAELLCQy3HFIfFI.webp)



....


![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/tjLh0dv.png)
. Round of 16 is only 2 groups per week.![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/NB3KGYk.png)
No 3rd World for him to fall back on. 