EPTTerran smashing Zerg
"Zerg smashing Zerg"
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Zerg's Doomed Future - Page 4
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iFU.pauline
France1496 Posts
Terran smashing Zerg "Zerg smashing Zerg" ... | ||
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Djabanete
United States2786 Posts
What I mean is that “Zergs are filling up the bottom half of the recent Major Proleague rankings” is almost exactly the same statement as “The top 5 players at the moment are not Zergs.” That second statement doesn’t seem so needful of an explanation beyond random chance and the null hypothesis of perfect balance. I haven’t computed the odds that, if every spot in the top 5 had an even 1-in-3 chance of belonging to any race, a single race would be absent from the top 5, but I imagine those odds aren’t especially low. In other words, even if it’s totally random which race occupies any given slot on the rankings, it seems plausible that there would be stretches of time when one race would be absent from the top 5. Having one race be absent from the top five in a format like Major Proleague, where there are only about 15 regulars, would put that race at the bottom, but in the premise of the thought experiment, there’s no race imbalance driving that dynamic, only random happenstance of who happens to be in form. When each race has only three or four serious banner bearers at the tip-top level, then the answer to the question “What are the chances that every single one of this race’s banner bearers just happens to be out of form?” is actually, “Not all that low.” Reaching for mechanistic reasons for race imbalance (such as how larvae work) seems wrong-headed because each race has different advantages and disadvantages that can’t be directly compared — if Zerg is weak, it’s because of a whole web of relationships between units and strategies, not because of one single reason. The story of balance or imbalance can be found only in large numbers of game outcomes, not in a contrast between unit production mechanics. The very top players are outliers by definition. I feel that the most important balance metric should be win rates between roughly the fifth- through fifteenth-best players in each race. It’s safer to assume that the fifth- through fifteenth-best Protoss players have equal skill to their Zerg counterparts (and that therefore win percentages will say something about race balance or map balance) than that the two best Protoss players have equal skill as the two best Zerg players (which would imply that there’s a balance problem if those four players aren’t going 50-50). If the bulk of Protoss players at a high level are going 50-50 with the bulk of Zerg players at a high level on a certain set of maps, then I think we can be satisfied with the PvZ balance of that set of maps. If Snow and Bisu both had a dip in performance right now, suddenly the data would show that Protoss were lost in the desert. Overall race balance (or map balance) cannot be reliably judged on the basis of the fluctuations in form of a tiny number of people. | ||
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TMNT
2530 Posts
On May 15 2023 17:30 Djabanete wrote: Isn’t it a bit reckless to draw conclusions from the performances of ~15 players, no matter how many games those players play? The very top players are outliers by definition. I feel that the most important balance metric should be win rates between roughly the fifth- through fifteenth-best players in each race. It’s safer to assume that the fifth- through fifteenth-best Protoss players have equal skill to their Zerg counterparts (and that therefore win percentages will say something about race balance or map balance) than that the two best Protoss players have equal skill as the two best Zerg players (which would imply that there’s a balance problem if those four players aren’t going 50-50). I think it's the opposite actually. Comparing the top 5 of each race is more reliable than comparing the 5th-15th, because that is where the peak skill of each race lies. You introduce too many variations when working with the 5th-15th, beginning with determining who are the 5th to 15th itself. Plus, in this particular context, you also have these problems with the 5th-15th: - players are in and out of the scene from time to time, so forms are even more unpredictable - not many games, and not regularly - selective playing (A may play B a lot of times, while not play C and D at all) which can skew the data Players who belong to the Major Proleague (effectively that top 15) practice almost exclusively between themselves, are the most active, are randomly distributed to 2 teams and play each other almost on a daily basis, are the only ones involved in KCM and UBE. It's the most reliable set of data you can obtain. The problem with rise and dip in form of Major Proleague players can be eliminated easily by extending the period of time in question. If 5 months (the above table) is not enough for you, we can do 1.5 years starting from 2022 (eloboard was created somehwhere in 2021). | ||
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LUCKY_NOOB
Bulgaria1405 Posts
On May 15 2023 03:14 vOdToasT wrote: Artosis is not normal. He is the DSP and the LTG of StarCraft. Which other Terran users can you name who whine? For every Terran you can name, I can name a Protoss or Zerg. I used to believe that Terran users whined the most, but after playing every race and getting whined at, and partaking in the Zerg, Protoss, and Terran sections of CPL (I'm not that good but they wanted me so I obliged), I no longer believe that. So kinda like Flash? We just should ignore his achievements? I've never seen a Terran NOT whine actually. And if a Zerg in CPL is whining but that is AT BEST 2000 people who read it... So drawing equivalency of the impact is just laughable. So I assume your point is every1 whines sometimes? My point is Terran whining sells the most and has the biggest impact on the foreigner game. OFC it was koreans who came up with the T word... But there are a lot of big names who are able to speak about it. And to be fair to Tastosis they are very fair while casting ASL from what I've seen. It's the personal streams... | ||
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LUCKY_NOOB
Bulgaria1405 Posts
On May 15 2023 08:37 TMNT wrote: Since eloboard introduced the advanced search function, I really like to play with the win rate of players over a period of time. Here's a Top5 vs Top5 vs Top5 table with only games in 2023 counted. Will make a thread after the first 6 months. The table is to be read as [Row vs Column] (for example, Snow vs Mini is 43.5% for Snow). Yellow means the two players are pretty much 50/50. Light green (55-60%) means slightly favorite and green (>60%) is heavily favorite. Opposite for orange and red. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/PHZ9nFv.png) I have to admit if not for Soma, Zerg is absolutely fucked. Meanwhile, Snow looks like he's more suited to the saying "It's not Light just has almost no weakness. Oh and Bisu is still amazing in 2023. Would be interesting to see. That 10.5% JD vs Light... | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On May 10 2023 12:39 jinjin5000 wrote: if i put it any higher, it seems to cover pros faces. Already issue with bigger subs tho oh ok I understand. Thank you for your clarification and thank you very much for your subs! | ||
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Nirli
Bulgaria358 Posts
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Nirli
Bulgaria358 Posts
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Djabanete
United States2786 Posts
The more players your data encompasses, the more sure you can be (by the law of large numbers) that you’re not seeing random disparities in skill between races. But the more players your data encompasses, the less sure you can be that you’re considering balance “at the top level.” If you go to the extreme top level and just ask Jesus (T) and Superman (P) to play against each other in a Bo999, you run into a different problem: Maybe one of them is just better than the other, but you don’t know which one and you don’t know by how much, so what have you learned about TvP balance? Major Proleague provides great data in three respects — there are a lot of games, the matchups are randomized, and the players have financial incentives to perform at highest skill level. Yet, with so few players, it still has a lot in common with the Jesus vs Superman Bo999. It’s hard to rule out skill disparities with so few players in the experiment. If you ask Jesus and Superman to play a long sequence of games against each other, and then you keep fiddling with the map balance until they’re going 50-50, you don’t know whether you’ve found balanced maps or just handicapped the better player. *** What I’ve long wanted to see in BW — and there probably isn’t the funding — is a league in which the top ~50 players rumble together all the time, with randomized matchups. Players are rewarded not directly for winning but rather for placing highly on an internal matchup-by-matchup ELO rating; winning a game doesn’t directly increase your $$$ prize, but it helps you be the 24th best PvZ player instead of the 25th best, which does directly increase your $$$ prize. This mitigates the unfairness of imbalanced maps, since ultimately you’re not competing against the other races, but within your own — Bisu could win the “best PvZ” crown with a 35% win rate if the maps were just horrendous, and the payout would be the same as the “best ZvP” crown held by a person with a 65% win rate on those same maps. At the end of the season, compile the matchup win rates on all maps excluding the top 3 players of each matchup. Now you can put the balanced maps on the List of Balanced maps for Individual League Use and scrap or redesign the rest. | ||
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Ideas
United States8075 Posts
Bigger concern is that it's 2023 and it's still just as hard as ever for the younger generation to break into the scene. As the former kespa players inevitably ages out of BW/streaming, who will replace them? Only soma has been able to play at their level so far and he's only a couple years younger. | ||
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Shinokuki
United States859 Posts
On May 16 2023 07:20 Ideas wrote: Hard to believe that the zerg players in proleague/ASL are uniquely susceptible to ageing out of BW relevancy compared to their protoss and terran peers that are the same ages. Bigger concern is that it's 2023 and it's still just as hard as ever for the younger generation to break into the scene. As the former kespa players inevitably ages out of BW/streaming, who will replace them? Only soma has been able to play at their level so far and he's only a couple years younger. Slight mistake in micro really punishes zergs. Zergs rely on a lot of micro because their units are so flimsy compared to their peers. It's a race that rewards mechanics and micro. You micro your lings well vs 1st zlot/probe? Game is won. You micro your mutas well and barely take any damage while hurting terran eco? Game is won once again. But it's harder to do that for older players. The issue is that the maps are making this more difficult for zerg players, hence why only soma is doing well in proleagues. Before anyone mentions ASL stats again, I dare to say that ASL stats doesn't even matter. JYJ/MIND/HERO/JD are all considerd low tier/bottom of the barrel type of players in daily major proleagues btw. ASL seems to be considered an event now with daily proleagues being very important. thousands of games are played across months rather than 50~60 games in ASL. You do well in PL? You are constantly recruited into it with prize pool for each player reaching about ~50-90k per person in a single month. Foreigners need to realize Major Proleague >>>>> ASL >> K league>> Race War. Major proleague = where all big hitters play and many games are played. This is the main source of income for top tier players and zergs are god awful in THE MOST IMPORTANT event lol. | ||
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Mutaller
United States1049 Posts
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PhilGood2DaY
Germany7424 Posts
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Ideas
United States8075 Posts
On May 16 2023 23:30 Mutaller wrote: Zerg is still the most popular race in round of 8 which doesn't have me worried. I am more sad for protoss players. Terrans just seem to have their new valk build and it'll be a while until zergs have a good build that can go against it and also the mix up builds terran can choose to do. Totally irrelevant but this reminds me that I wish sair/reaver was more viable again as a midgame strategy (maybe it's just a map thing? Maybe just need more maps with a free or easy island 3rd?). Those games are so fun to watch but it feels like a totally extinct strategy nowadays  | ||
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QOGQOG
828 Posts
On May 16 2023 15:12 Shinokuki wrote: Before anyone mentions ASL stats again, I dare to say that ASL stats doesn't even matter. JYJ/MIND/HERO/JD are all considerd low tier/bottom of the barrel type of players in daily major proleagues btw. ASL seems to be considered an event now with daily proleagues being very important. thousands of games are played across months rather than 50~60 games in ASL. You do well in PL? You are constantly recruited into it with prize pool for each player reaching about ~50-90k per person in a single month. Foreigners need to realize Major Proleague >>>>> ASL >> K league>> Race War. Major proleague = where all big hitters play and many games are played. This is the main source of income for top tier players and zergs are god awful in THE MOST IMPORTANT event lol. So the only stats that matter are the ones that support you? How convenient. Regardless of which are more prestigious, ASL results do show, quite clearly, that Zergs can compete at the top level. They don't cease to be relevant simply because you think that other competitions are more important. And of course, Soma is competing just fine in Proleague, so it's not impossible for Zerg to succeed there either. I can't believe how much nonsense has been generated on this thread about the whining of players who are competitively irrelevant (and, admittedly, SoulKey). The meta and maps have shifted and not been great for Zerg for a few months. It's interesting to hear the players talk about it. But buying into the "Zerg is actually in a terrible spot because it's always been underpowered and super difficult and if you doubt me look at this extremely limited set of stats" is absolutely ridiculous. | ||
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TMNT
2530 Posts
They need to fix the maps though. The fact that Terran has been for years enjoying "standard" maps in which both of their matchups are positive is just ridiculous. | ||
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Ideas
United States8075 Posts
On May 17 2023 01:30 QOGQOG wrote: So the only stats that matter are the ones that support you? How convenient. Regardless of which are more prestigious, ASL results do show, quite clearly, that Zergs can compete at the top level. They don't cease to be relevant simply because you think that other competitions are more important. And of course, Soma is competing just fine in Proleague, so it's not impossible for Zerg to succeed there either. I can't believe how much nonsense has been generated on this thread about the whining of players who are competitively irrelevant (and, admittedly, SoulKey). The meta and maps have shifted and not been great for Zerg for a few months. It's interesting to hear the players talk about it. But buying into the "Zerg is actually in a terrible spot because it's always been underpowered and super difficult and if you doubt me look at this extremely limited set of stats" is absolutely ridiculous. Yea I agree and clearly the tone of the guys talking in the video was pretty tongue-in-cheek as well haha | ||
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hitthat
Poland2260 Posts
On May 14 2023 22:37 LUCKY_NOOB wrote: Terrans live in an alternate universe where anything legitimate anyone else says is whining, but terran whining is "facts". I don't remember ever a time where Zergs were whining more. Even if this is true you have made up for it until the year 69420 CE. Exhibit A: ![[image loading]](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/CcYvfo0hV9U/maxresdefault.jpg) I know EXACLY what I'm talking about. Zergs were the biggest crybabies of whole races at leat around 2010/2011. Terran this, terran that... the culmination of this stupid neverending rage was when Sea beat Jaedong in one of MSL game. The shit just hit the fan. No matter that map was horrible, no matter that Jaedong did bad trading untill his well executed sandwich, traded multiple mutalisks for a single science vessel and failed to sufficiently damage Sea's economy allowing him to make succesfull transision into mech. All what Sea was doing was taking Terran. There should be a topic here on TL, it was more atrocious than my english. And don't even make me start about how the chats went full Zerg rage that day. I love how deluded Zergs are. That was the golden time of Zergs and they were still crying "TERRAN IMBA". I always believe that Protoss players were the most chill... | ||
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LUCKY_NOOB
Bulgaria1405 Posts
On May 17 2023 02:34 hitthat wrote: I know EXACLY what I'm talking about. Zergs were the biggest crybabies of whole races at leat around 2010/2011. Terran this, terran that... the culmination of this stupid neverending rage was when Sea beat Jaedong in one of MSL game. The shit just hit the fan. No matter that map was horrible, no matter that Jaedong did bad trading untill his well executed sandwich, traded multiple mutalisks for a single science vessel and failed to sufficiently damage Sea's economy allowing him to make succesfull transision into mech. All what Sea was doing was taking Terran. There should be a topic here on TL, it was more atrocious than my english. And don't even make me start about how the chats went full Zerg rage that day. I love how deluded Zergs are. That was the golden time of Zergs and they were still crying "TERRAN IMBA". I always believe that Protoss players were the most chill... You really sound like a what you are talking about.... I quote "terran this, terran that..." Great insight! Very Terran indeed haha At least we can articulate what we hate about terran (all their upgrades that make their units superior in a real scenario)... I'll help you tho.. I'm that kind! Terrans say Lings, Mutas, Defilers, Ultras are OP (You can lose the entire game to 1 Vulture, nobody ever lost to 1 ling, Mutas LITERRALY had to INVENT a new way for them to be remotely playable, Ultras are ok if u survive so u can run em into mines... And defilers are increidbly hard to protect to cast even a single spell in a useful location (that you can just move away from).... So it's rich ANY Terran EVER would call ANY Zerg EVER delusional... When delusion is basically synonimous with Terran. | ||
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MineraIs
United States846 Posts
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Usually it's the Terrans that whine about their race being the hardest, while the Tosses say they never win tournaments...
